Continuation Part Eight: Discussion of the Amanda Knox/Raffaele Sollecito case

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We know that Meredith had a mainly carbohydrate based meal, which usually has a quicker gastric emptying time - she was also not reported to have drunk alcohol or smoked cannabis with the meal. I don't think you can ever say anything with total certainty, but I do think that the time of death becomes less likely the later after 9pm you consider.


Yes. Strangely enough, the last meal that Meredith Kercher ate was actually pretty close in size and composition to the typical test meals used in studies (and certainly close enough to warrant comparison). It was a meal with a normal balance of carbohydrates, fats, proteins and fibre, and it was small-to-moderate in size. Moreover, she had the meal on an empty stomach (a fact that was also proved in autopsy by the absence of any food matter anywhere between her stomach and the very far end of her small intestine).

It's also worth at this point reminding ourselves that it's only gastric alcohol which can have an inhibiting effect on transit/motility, not blood alcohol. In other words, it's only if the stomach actually has alcohol in it during the period of ingestion that one needs to consider modifying typical stomach emptying times etc. All the evidence shows that Meredith almost certainly did not drink any alcohol either before, during or after her last meal, and that the blood alcohol found post mortem was due to heavy drinking the night before (meaning that all the alcohol would have long since passed out of the stomach/intestines and into the bloodstream). Even in the unlikely possibility that the post mortem BAC was due to Meredith having one small drink around the time of her last meal, this low BAC level means that Meredith could not have drunk so much between (say) 5.30pm and 8.30pm that evening for it to have had a significant material effect on her digestive motility.

In summary, there is no sound reason to believe that any factor (gastric illness; other illness; presence of large amount of alcohol in the stomach; prolonged extreme stress; unusual meal composition) can have had any significant effect upon Meredith Kercher's digestive motility that night. And therefore, it's valid to examine her motility from that night against the known distribution curves. And when we do that, we find that it's already very improbable that Meredith still had all her meal in her stomach at 9pm - but (and this is crucial) we happen to know for certain that this is the case. And then it is easy for anyone with basic mathematical knowledge to calculate the relative probabilities of Meredith still retaining all her meal in her stomach by 9.30pm, 10pm, 10.30pm and so on. And when we do so, it's easy to see that the probability that Meredith died between 9pm and 9.30pm is significantly higher than if she died between 9.30pm and 10pm, and that the probability that she died between 9pm and 10pm is hugely higher than a ToD later than 10pm. And that a ToD later than around 10.30pm is essentially impossible.
 
I see the early and precise ToD is still spinning merrily away and being ignored in the real world. Have no fear, I have no intention revisiting this trope for either comedic or educational purposes - it was disposed of years ago.
However as Rolfe among others has raised it again it would be wise [and an act of kindness] to stress test another aspect of her argument.





This rings a bell - it seems to have replaced 'semi digested' ( actually – what caused the change in terminology ?) which you used many times and always brought a wry smile to my face.

Why - well when it was first used in the original theory by KL or LJ, from where it was presumably copied, it caught my eye.
Naturally (having watched TV shows as a kid but not being a medical professional) my first thought was - can this be quantified.
Did the pathologist proffer a number, in terms of hours, for the state of digestion.
So it was the work of a moment to check the source document and discover that he had in fact quantified the issue. As to why KL or LJ had not used the actual number - well the most charitable explanation is that their arguments are not noted for being strong on numeracy.

And then Rolfe started and persisted in using the same vague term. Her lack of curiosity on this timing issue brought to mind a quote I spotted somewhere sometime.....

"The thing about medicine - its all about the numbers"

am unsure of the attribution.

Actually that would make a nice sig - assuming one wishes to put the maxim into practice. Merely using it as an ornament might serve to highlight the deficiency.

So - what did the pathologist say as to the state of digestion - in numbers.

I'm sure you will be glad to enlighten us all.
Actually given you reluctance to interrogate the source documents you could always refer back to the post where I gave you the number.


In case any mere laymen (who can both read text and numbers) are reading and cant stand the suspense - the answer is .......


...... 4 hours.


The thing about medicine ... eh ?


No, the thing is this:

If one is going to make grandstanding "ahaaaa" claims, one ought to check one's facts before doing so, otherwise one stands to look foolish and amateur at best, and agenda-driven and mendacious at worst.

I have bolded the most relevant words just to make it a little easier to comprehend than it already is:

Answering specific questions from the defence of Raffaele Sollecito, Dr. Lalli stated that death had intervened two to three hours after eating (page 47), while reaffirming that the emptying of the stomach generally occurs between two hours and a maximum of 4 hours after eating (page 62, hearing on April 3, 2009).

Massei Report, Eng tran, pp115-116


So which was it? Embarrassing ignorance/incompetence or mendacious dissembling?
 
I see the early and precise ToD is still spinning merrily away and being ignored in the real world. Have no fear, I have no intention revisiting this trope for either comedic or educational purposes - it was disposed of years ago.
However as Rolfe among others has raised it again it would be wise [and an act of kindness] to stress test another aspect of her argument.





This rings a bell - it seems to have replaced 'semi digested' ( actually – what caused the change in terminology ?) which you used many times and always brought a wry smile to my face.

Why - well when it was first used in the original theory by KL or LJ, from where it was presumably copied, it caught my eye.
Naturally (having watched TV shows as a kid but not being a medical professional) my first thought was - can this be quantified.
Did the pathologist proffer a number, in terms of hours, for the state of digestion.
So it was the work of a moment to check the source document and discover that he had in fact quantified the issue. As to why KL or LJ had not used the actual number - well the most charitable explanation is that their arguments are not noted for being strong on numeracy.

And then Rolfe started and persisted in using the same vague term. Her lack of curiosity on this timing issue brought to mind a quote I spotted somewhere sometime.....

"The thing about medicine - its all about the numbers"

am unsure of the attribution.

Actually that would make a nice sig - assuming one wishes to put the maxim into practice. Merely using it as an ornament might serve to highlight the deficiency.

So - what did the pathologist say as to the state of digestion - in numbers.

I'm sure you will be glad to enlighten us all.
Actually given you reluctance to interrogate the source documents you could always refer back to the post where I gave you the number.


In case any mere laymen (who can both read text and numbers) are reading and cant stand the suspense - the answer is .......


...... 4 hours.


The thing about medicine ... eh ?

I promised to be nice, but the problem is your comment is incomprehensible. One cannot analyse stomach contents and get a time. I think what you refer to is T1/2 for gastric emptying; the time it takes for half the stomach contents to empty. This is irrelevant. No stomach contents had emptied. Therefore the time to be considered is T lag the time to start gastric emptying - the median time quoted is about 2 hours assuming a meal at 18.30 this means 50% of people will have started to empty stomach by 20.30. Given other factors I think T lag would be nearer 150 - 180 minutes (but I am still trying to review published literature) this would place median T lag about 21.00.

I am sorry to say the fact that something was stated by an expert witness particularly in this court case is no guarantee that it is not an error. One can take the observation review the literature and confirm the conclusion. in this case there seems little doubt that ToD becomes progressively less likely after 21.00.
 
I can also answer this - the sole killer who also managed to get his DNA inside Meredith Kercher's vagina - and yet mysteriously seems about to win 'Man of the Year' amongst the pro-guilt supporters

Although I guess it is always possible that Amanda dressed up as Hermione Granger to fulfill all Raffaele's fantasies and 'control his mind' - and then also performed some diabolical magic on Guede so that he would obey her every command and act out her evil wishes

Dr. Nancy, pro-guilt advocates realize there is a simple explanation how Rudy's DNA got in Meredith's vagina. It got there not through direct contact but through contamination. Rudy, being the gentleman that he is, got up and gave his seat to the lady. :confused:
 
Perhaps it's time for the shoes again. In this picture you can see her shoes have been removed in two completely different ways. One has been neatly untied while the other looks as though someone has hooked their finger under the knot and pulled up drawing the eyes tight together. She might have done this herself. She might have two totally different ways of removing her shoes. Obviously, that is possible. Also possible is that Guede attacked her right after she reached her room, just as she was removing one shoe. We will never know.

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In this picture we see some items on the bed. They include a study book she borrowed and a note book. She told her friends she was going to get an early night and do a little studying for class the next day. She was a diligent student so this seems quite credible. The notebook and study book are near the wall. I suggest they are in that position because she had thrown them onto the bed, on top of the comforter, but that Rudy tipped them toward the wall when he dragged the comforter off the bed to cover part of the floor. I have an idea about why he wanted to do that but it's not very nice.
[URL=http://s777.photobucket.com/user/cwismayer/media/image_zps34dfd0d0.jpg.html][/URL

So, she came home, called out 'anybody home' (as Rudy attests - probably because he left the kitchen light on or because there was just something out of place) and walked smartly to her room, tossed the study book and note book on the bed, removed one shoe and got attacked before she took the other one off. I wonder whether any of her foot prints might have been found in her own blood (a thought that has not occurred to me before).

Of course, maybe this did not happen. It's impossible to be certain. But now we have two things. She did not interact with her phone in a normal way. That's three. She did not undress. Four. She did not remove her laundry from the washing machine. Five. Did she actually make any notes in that notebook? Let's say not. Six. Rudy related a series of events around 9.00 p.m. Seven. What she told her friends she intended to do. Eight. Digestion. Nine.

That is a circumstantial case. It osmotically creeps up on you. Each circumstance can be explained in a way consistent with a much later TOD. But all of them? How much more does a reasonable person need? This is yet another vital thing Hellman got wrong. It's funny but LJ, Randy and others tear strips out of the defence lawyers, very possibly with justification. I accuse Hellman.
 
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PlaNiGale (Not Guilty)...

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There is a sensible poster called Planigale and another one with a similar name and I keep getting them mixed up. Sorry Planigale.
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Platonov has over 1,000 post, and I have yet to see a post from them that applies any REAL skepticism, and thus is obviously a GUMPer.

Planigale only has 120 - 130 post and applies REAL skepticism, and is obviously an IMPer, or leaning that way. It's also easy to remember (for me anyway) because they have Not and Guilty in the spelling of their name.

It's interesting that the one with the least post is smarter (skeptically) than the one with more post.

It's also obvious (to some of us anyway, but not to Platonov) that the GUMPERer is ruining their own post by the way they post. Too bad really, they might be a smart person otherwise and interesting to talk to... maybe,

d

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The lawyers cannot act like a bunch of whipped puppies in front of the CSC. They need to channel the 2009 version of Bongiorno who said that the lack of discovery violated her client's rights, and they need to make it clear that they are not talking about penny-ante violations. Maybe they need to channel Nikita Khrushchev and his shoe-banging. I don't see how they can win without coming out and saying that the previous CSC ruling got things terribly wrong.


Exactly, and they may want to start with Hellmanns opinions on that SC matter when he pops up occasionally. Seems that he thinks they illegally overturned his courts decision. Sure he is retired now but still.

There have been other Italian writers who also expressed doubt about the SC motivation and if they followed Italian law when deciding to over turn and used facts and evidence from the case to decide those things.

This was one small panel of SC judges who went beyond their mandate and made a decision they never should have made. Hopefully different judges will see things....well...differently.
 
Sherlock Holmes,

He was looking for rent money. The window broke in much the way that Sgt. Pasquali indicated. He was on the loo when Meredith returned, around 9. He stabbed Meredith, sexually assaulted her, failed to call 112, and then went dancing. Now he is obliquely pointing a finger at others when he knows full well he is the guilty party. Could there have been a second person as a lookout perhaps? Yes. Your turn...

Fine, 'rent money', pure speculation, 'window', again speculation, there is far more evidence saying it was broken after the room was ram sacked, 'On the loo', again speculation, I'm starting to see a pattern forming here. The only thing not contested here would be the sexual assault part.

My turn, there was no second person there when the murder took place, just Rudy who Amanda had let in most likely to use the Loo, she left to get help, (Raf) once Rudy started the attack. Rudy left after Amanda return with Raf, that's the part where Amanda stayed outside and Raf confronted Rudy and left right away.
 
I promised to be nice, but the problem is your comment is incomprehensible. One cannot analyse stomach contents and get a time. I think what you refer to is T1/2 for gastric emptying; the time it takes for half the stomach contents to empty. This is irrelevant. No stomach contents had emptied. Therefore the time to be considered is T lag the time to start gastric emptying - the median time quoted is about 2 hours assuming a meal at 18.30 this means 50% of people will have started to empty stomach by 20.30. Given other factors I think T lag would be nearer 150 - 180 minutes (but I am still trying to review published literature) this would place median T lag about 21.00.

I am sorry to say the fact that something was stated by an expert witness particularly in this court case is no guarantee that it is not an error. One can take the observation review the literature and confirm the conclusion. in this case there seems little doubt that ToD becomes progressively less likely after 21.00.


The pathologist Lalli actually wasn't that far off (see my previous post).

The problem here appears to be that a near-unique situation applied to Meredith Kercher regarding last meal times, time last seen alive, and possible ranges for ToD. This makes the stomach/duodenum evidence very unusually accurate in determining ToD in this particular case. And since this situation occurs so very rarely, most forensic pathologists have relatively little experience or specialist knowledge in this field.

But an eminent gastroenterologist (backed up, for maximum effect, by a pathologist who did have specialised knowledge in this area) would have been able to tell the courts with full authority and credibility the sorts of things we have been discussing here for years now: that the stomach/duodenum evidence shows that Meredith Kercher almost certainly died before 10pm, and without a shadow of a doubt well before 11pm. Heck, I could have given the defence teams the details of two or three highly suitable candidates who are world-renowned in gastroenterology, who are based here in London and who would probably have been perfectly willing to fly to Italy for a day or two to testify. That sort of thing should have been done in the Massei trial. It was not done: instead, they got defence pathologists who knew less about the subject that Lalli!
 
Perhaps it's time for the shoes again. In this picture you can see her shoes have been removed in two completely different ways. One has been neatly untied while the other looks as though someone has hooked their finger under the knot and pulled up drawing the eyes tight together. She might have done this herself. She might have two totally different ways of removing her shoes. Obviously, that is possible. Also possible is that Guede attacked her right after she reached her room, just as she was removing one shoe. We will never know.

[qimg]http://i777.photobucket.com/albums/yy57/cwismayer/image_zpse1c78abd.jpg[/qimg][/URL
In this picture we see some items on the bed. They include a study book she borrowed and a note book. She told her friends she was going to get an early night and do a little studying for class the next day. She was a diligent student so this seems quite credible. The notebook and study book are near the wall. I suggest they are in that position because she had thrown them onto the bed, on top of the comforter, but that Rudy tipped them toward the wall when he dragged the comforter off the bed to cover part of the floor. I have an idea about why he wanted to do that but it's not very nice.
[URL=http://s777.photobucket.com/user/cwismayer/media/image_zps34dfd0d0.jpg.html][qimg]http://i777.photobucket.com/albums/yy57/cwismayer/image_zps34dfd0d0.jpg[/qimg][/URL

So, she came home, called out 'anybody home' (as Rudy attests - probably because he left the kitchen light on or because there was just something out of place) and walked smartly to her room, tossed the study book and note book on the bed, removed one shoe and got attacked before she took the other one off. I wonder whether any of her foot prints might have been found in her own blood (a thought that has not occurred to me before).

Of course, maybe this did not happen. It's impossible to be certain. But now we have two things. She did not interact with her phone in a normal way. That's three. She did not undress. Four. She did not remove her laundry from the washing machine. Five. Did she actually make any notes in that notebook? Let's say not. Six. Rudy related a series of events around 9.00 p.m. Seven. What she told her friends she intended to do. Eight. Digestion. Nine.

That is a circumstantial case. It osmotically creeps up on you. Each circumstance can be explained in a way consistent with a much later TOD. But all of them? How much more does a reasonable person need? This is yet another vital thing Hellman got wrong. It's funny but LJ, Randy and others tear strips out of the defence lawyers, very possibly with justification. I accuse Hellman.


Is a comforter a duvet? (As opposed to a cuddle blanket?)
 
It is even later than you think

This then means that having no gastric emptying by 21.00 is not such an outlier as simple estimates of gastric emptying imply, but 22.30 is still way out of a likely range.
Planigale,

Mignini and Massei put the TOD at 23:30 or even later.
 
Fine, 'rent money', pure speculation, 'window', again speculation, there is far more evidence saying it was broken after the room was ram sacked, 'On the loo', again speculation, I'm starting to see a pattern forming here. The only thing not contested here would be the sexual assault part.

My turn, there was no second person there when the murder took place, just Rudy who Amanda had let in most likely to use the Loo, she left to get help, (Raf) once Rudy started the attack. Rudy left after Amanda return with Raf, that's the part where Amanda stayed outside and Raf confronted Rudy and left right away.


If it had happened in that way, why on Earth would Knox (in particular) and Sollecito not have alerted the authorities and told the exact truth about what had happened? What would they possibly have stood to gain by pretending they knew nothing at all about the murder? Why might they have wanted/needed to protect Guede? What crime would they themselves have been guilty of under this scenario?

(And it's "ransacked", not "ram sacked".....)
 
Answering specific questions from the defence of Raffaele Sollecito, Dr. Lalli stated that death had intervened two to three hours after eating (page 47), while reaffirming that the emptying of the stomach generally occurs between two hours and a maximum of 4 hours after eating (page 62, hearing on April 3, 2009).
Massei Report, Eng tran, pp115-116

Just to be comprehensive with respect to this evidence:

Robyn Carmel Butterworth -- "She did not really remember what time they had eaten, perhaps around six. They had only drunk water."

Amy Frost -- "she remembered that Meredith had arrived
about half past four and that they had started eating the pizza they had prepared at around half past five or six."

Sophie Purton -- "She did not know when they had finished eating; perhaps an hour before leaving; and she indicated that they had left the house at around 20:45 pm."

Massei p 34-36

Dr. Lalli says that death intervened (such phrasing!) within two or three hours after Meredith had her meal, because it was all in her stomach when he did the autopsy.

She ate her pizza between 5:30 and 6:30. An hour or so later she had some apple dessert.

And Rudy killed her at about 9:15.
 
If it had happened in that way, why on Earth would Knox (in particular) and Sollecito not have alerted the authorities and told the exact truth about what had happened? What would they possibly have stood to gain by pretending they knew nothing at all about the murder? Why might they have wanted/needed to protect Guede? What crime would they themselves have been guilty of under this scenario?

(And it's "ransacked", not "ram sacked".....)

Absolutely.

Put simply, under what bizarre set of circumstances did Knox or Sollecito stand to benefit from covering for or protecting Guede? Whom, categorically, they did not know.
 
The timing of Rudy's dump and Meredith's return is not important

Fine, 'rent money', pure speculation, 'window', again speculation, there is far more evidence saying it was broken after the room was ram sacked, 'On the loo', again speculation, I'm starting to see a pattern forming here. The only thing not contested here would be the sexual assault part.

My turn, there was no second person there when the murder took place, just Rudy who Amanda had let in most likely to use the Loo, she left to get help, (Raf) once Rudy started the attack. Rudy left after Amanda return with Raf, that's the part where Amanda stayed outside and Raf confronted Rudy and left right away.
How was Rudy going to pay his rent? I don't consider Sgt. Pasquali's demonstration to be speculation and I am baffled as to why anyone else would; what Massei suggested about how the window was broken had zero experimental support and was in fact contradicted by Pasquali's results. Reps. 198 and 199 support the break-in. It is undisputed Rudy took a dump, but whether he was in the middle of this or had just finished his paperwork is an unimportant detail. Given Mignini's breathtaking "reconstruction" of the crime, in which everything after about 8:40 (including Amanda's words to Meredith) was utter conjecture, it is astonishing that any other reconstruction would be called speculation.
 
Finally, one of the three is beginning to crack, lets hope it keeps going and we finally get the full truth out. This is a start, and Raf is definitely the one.

Sherlock, wouldn't it be funny if Raf made a deal to somehow throw Amanda under the bus to save himself from prison? Somehow got out of the murder charge in exchange for incriminating Amanda? The guilters would have to retract five years of describing how Knife Boy committed the crime.
 
Planigale,

Mignini and Massei put the TOD at 23:30 or even later.


Yes, and it appears that there's a good reason why they had to try to do so:

It's the highly inconvenient fact that between around 10.30pm and 11.30pm there was a car broken down bang opposite the cottage, containing a number of credible,reliable occupants. These occupants testified confidently that they neither saw nor heard any sound or light from the cottage all the while they were there, and that they saw nobody arrive or leave.

This gave Mignini and Massei a big problem. It meant that, in practical terms, the murder had to have occurred either before around 10.15pm (giving time for the killer(s) to escape before the car broke down at 10.30pm), or after around 11.40pm (giving time for the killer(s) to arrive and confront Meredith after the car left at around 11.30pm).

But if they placed the murder at the earlier time - prior to 10.15pm, then they would have had to abandon Capezzali and Monacchia as "earwitnesses", as their evidence was utterly incompatible with a pre-10.15pm time of death. And it would have given them significant trouble with Curatolo's testimony, as well as running dangerously close to Sollecito's known computer activity.

So they felt they had no option but to place the ToD at post-11.40pm - their only remaining option. In this way, they could marry it with Capezzali and Monacchia, with Curatolo's fable, and place things well outside any provable exculpatory activities of Knox/Sollecito.

But, unfortunately, the stomach/duodenum evidence proves beyond all reasonable doubt that the ToD cannot possibly have been at 11.40pm or later. Had the defence teams understood this issue properly, they could have instantly rebutted this point - even given that the prosecution/court ToD was only switched (improperly) to this later time at the 11th hour in the Massei trial. They certainly could and should have made this argument far, far more strongly in every subsequent appeal.

And given that the murder could not have occurred later than 11.40pm, together with the fact that it couldn't have occurred between 10.15pm and 11.40pm (on account of the broken-down car), it MUST have occurred prior to 10.15pm. We can therefore know this with a high degree of certainty from these datum points alone.
 
Yes, and it appears that there's a good reason why they had to try to do so:

It's the highly inconvenient fact that between around 10.30pm and 11.30pm there was a car broken down bang opposite the cottage, containing a number of credible,reliable occupants. These occupants testified confidently that they neither saw nor heard any sound or light from the cottage all the while they were there, and that they saw nobody arrive or leave.

This gave Mignini and Massei a big problem. It meant that, in practical terms, the murder had to have occurred either before around 10.15pm (giving time for the killer(s) to escape before the car broke down at 10.30pm), or after around 11.40pm (giving time for the killer(s) to arrive and confront Meredith after the car left at around 11.30pm).

But if they placed the murder at the earlier time - prior to 10.15pm, then they would have had to abandon Capezzali and Monacchia as "earwitnesses", as their evidence was utterly incompatible with a pre-10.15pm time of death. And it would have given them significant trouble with Curatolo's testimony, as well as running dangerously close to Sollecito's known computer activity.

So they felt they had no option but to place the ToD at post-11.40pm - their only remaining option. In this way, they could marry it with Capezzali and Monacchia, with Curatolo's fable, and place things well outside any provable exculpatory activities of Knox/Sollecito.

But, unfortunately, the stomach/duodenum evidence proves beyond all reasonable doubt that the ToD cannot possibly have been at 11.40pm or later. Had the defence teams understood this issue properly, they could have instantly rebutted this point - even given that the prosecution/court ToD was only switched (improperly) to this later time at the 11th hour in the Massei trial. They certainly could and should have made this argument far, far more strongly in every subsequent appeal.

And given that the murder could not have occurred later than 11.40pm, together with the fact that it couldn't have occurred between 10.15pm and 11.40pm (on account of the broken-down car), it MUST have occurred prior to 10.15pm. We can therefore know this with a high degree of certainty from these datum points alone.

The only reason to make this case more complicated than it is, is to get at Amanda through Raffaele, by distorting things and ignoring the obvious. It is a simple case: Rudy broke in, used the loo, Meredith arrived, Rudy killed her, and he left. Probably all done by 9:30.... and go to the hate sites, and Rudy is their hero....

Why? Well, it's all part of making this more complicated than it needs be - all with a view to getting at Knox any way they can; even if it is to sully Meredith's memory and mislead her relatives.

Rudy did it. He's soon to be out on day release. There is no, "all the other evidence", and no evidence is still no evidence even when taken osmotically.
 
Sherlock, wouldn't it be funny if Raf made a deal to somehow throw Amanda under the bus to save himself from prison? Somehow got out of the murder charge in exchange for incriminating Amanda? The guilters would have to retract five years of describing how Knife Boy committed the crime.

I dunno - guilters are nothing if not flexible.... they would simply have this new info osmotically absorbed.
 
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