LondonJohn
Penultimate Amazing
- Joined
- May 12, 2010
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We know that Meredith had a mainly carbohydrate based meal, which usually has a quicker gastric emptying time - she was also not reported to have drunk alcohol or smoked cannabis with the meal. I don't think you can ever say anything with total certainty, but I do think that the time of death becomes less likely the later after 9pm you consider.
Yes. Strangely enough, the last meal that Meredith Kercher ate was actually pretty close in size and composition to the typical test meals used in studies (and certainly close enough to warrant comparison). It was a meal with a normal balance of carbohydrates, fats, proteins and fibre, and it was small-to-moderate in size. Moreover, she had the meal on an empty stomach (a fact that was also proved in autopsy by the absence of any food matter anywhere between her stomach and the very far end of her small intestine).
It's also worth at this point reminding ourselves that it's only gastric alcohol which can have an inhibiting effect on transit/motility, not blood alcohol. In other words, it's only if the stomach actually has alcohol in it during the period of ingestion that one needs to consider modifying typical stomach emptying times etc. All the evidence shows that Meredith almost certainly did not drink any alcohol either before, during or after her last meal, and that the blood alcohol found post mortem was due to heavy drinking the night before (meaning that all the alcohol would have long since passed out of the stomach/intestines and into the bloodstream). Even in the unlikely possibility that the post mortem BAC was due to Meredith having one small drink around the time of her last meal, this low BAC level means that Meredith could not have drunk so much between (say) 5.30pm and 8.30pm that evening for it to have had a significant material effect on her digestive motility.
In summary, there is no sound reason to believe that any factor (gastric illness; other illness; presence of large amount of alcohol in the stomach; prolonged extreme stress; unusual meal composition) can have had any significant effect upon Meredith Kercher's digestive motility that night. And therefore, it's valid to examine her motility from that night against the known distribution curves. And when we do that, we find that it's already very improbable that Meredith still had all her meal in her stomach at 9pm - but (and this is crucial) we happen to know for certain that this is the case. And then it is easy for anyone with basic mathematical knowledge to calculate the relative probabilities of Meredith still retaining all her meal in her stomach by 9.30pm, 10pm, 10.30pm and so on. And when we do so, it's easy to see that the probability that Meredith died between 9pm and 9.30pm is significantly higher than if she died between 9.30pm and 10pm, and that the probability that she died between 9pm and 10pm is hugely higher than a ToD later than 10pm. And that a ToD later than around 10.30pm is essentially impossible.
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