Continuation Part Seven: Discussion of the Amanda Knox/Raffaele Sollecito case

[Rolfe]

Bill, it's not about the last she ate. It's about the first she ate.

Given the timings involved, there was a good chance there would have been ingesta in the duodenum already by 9 o/clock. If there had been, the time of death couldn't have been so precisely determined. The investigators actually struck it lucky that Meredith was towards the long end of the curve already by the time she was killed. If only they had realised their good fortune. But then that would have required them to wait for the forensic results to be reported before deciding who had done it.

Rolfe.

 

[moije2]

My post above on this matter was a crossover with this post of yours

But I forgot to mention that the "fatty meal" thing is also a misdirection (intentionally or otherwise...). We know for certain what Meredith ate that night in the part of the meal that counts. It was a typical mixed-food-group meal of pizza: bread, cheese, vegetables and tomato sauce. We also know that recognisable elements of these food groups were found in Meredith's stomach. If Meredith had eaten a packet of butter or a deep-fried Mars Bar, then it might be appropriate to even mention the "fatty meal" issue - even though there's enough research to suggest that very high-fat meals such as these are only digested marginally more slowly than a "normal" mixed-food-group meal.

I was confident one of the astute posters such as yourself would come through and nail the specifics. Thanks. I have time to follow, but not accumulate and regurgitate the details. I was certain in my mind that this was the case, but enjoy having it nailed down so to speak. What I don't enjoy is seeing these false bases used to prolong what seems like an interminable useless argument. I will come back when I am refreshed and more tolerant! Thanks LJ

 

[Briars]

No. They would not.

Firstly, the transit time is determined by the start of the meal. If the meal lasted for 2 hours (which it didn't, incidentally), that's irrelevant. The only relevant time is the start of proper ingestion (in this instance, the start of eating of the pizza). There is plenty of literature available on this if you care to look, and it's been cited here plenty of times before. Oh, and it's common sense too, if you stop to think about the necessary mechanics of digestion (for example, if one ate a meal in very small regular mouthfuls over 8 hours, would the first mouthful be held up in the stomach all that time...?).

Secondly, it's time to nail this nonsense about "stress" and transit once and for all. Again, it's well-enough documented if you care to look. The actual evidence is that extreme stress, fear or trauma can slow down digestive transit slightly, and transit stops completely when the individual is very close to death. It is factually impossible that someone can be held at a state of terror for an hour or more, such that their digestive motility stops completely. Impossible.

If Meredith Kercher's gastric motility was slowed on that night, it would a) have been only slightly slowed (apart from in the moments before her death,when it would have slowed to a stop as her body shut down), b) have occurred only over a very short period of time (minutes at most), and c) have required her to be in a state of extreme terror - a state that would never last for more than minutes anyhow.

Therefore, this temporary, only-slight slowing of motility has almost no practical bearing in assessing the ToD in this case. Meredith Kercher was almost certainly attacked and killed before 9.30pm. It is 100% impossible - given the evidence - that Meredith Kercher was attacked any later than 10.30pm.

While I believe the murder happened before 10:30 stress is not a minor player in the digestive process, Digestive glands decrease or halt secretion of enzymes including acids during extreme stress, The mouth goes dry blood flow is directed to the extremities to flee,Digestive vessels constrict causing reduced blood flow. A nasty argument could put these physical changes into play.

 

[Bill Williams]

While I believe the murder happened before 10:30 stress is not a minor player in the digestive process, Digestive glands decrease or halt secretion of enzymes including acids during extreme stress, The mouth goes dry blood flow is directed to the extremities to flee,Digestive vessels constrict causing reduced blood flow. A nasty argument could put these physical changes into play.

Briars, as I'm being called up for not understanding this, so are you. The point people seem to be making is that for the stresser, even if true, to take this kind of effect, it would have had to have started WHEN SHE STARTED EATING!

It's not that she started her eating at 6 pm, finished at 7 pm, got home at 9 pm, was attacked..... and that this attack would stop digestion....

The point is that if stressers at all stop or delay digestion, your scenario would have to have her.....

...... beginning the life-threatening stress at 6 pm!!! You're not arguing for the attack to have started then are you?

 

[Rolfe]

The thing about severe stress as it affects the digestive tract is that it tends to favour ditching unnecessary weight. Vomiting and diarrhoea. Brown trouser time. Stomach-churning.

Remember, Massei had Meredith lying on her bed idly playing with her mobile phone and making random pointless connections to the first (alphabetical) number in her address book (but for some reason not phoning her mother). Ideal conditions for normal digestion in fact.

Now we're being invited to imagine some sort of prolonged torture session, which has halted stomach action. It wouldn't do this. The stomach would churn, acids already secreted would continue to act on the contents, and the meal would degrade. It wouldn't look normal. If the stress was severe enough, the victim would vomit. Otherwise, digestion would continue.

By no stretch of the imagination does stress freeze time in the stomach. And when did this stress start, and who caused it? And where are the signs of this on Meredith's body?

This is taking special pleading to ridiculous lengths.

Rolfe.

 

[Chris_Halkides]

transit through the digestive organs

So folks, may I ask, is there any merit to these 3 points? I am certain they have been covered at least 25 times before here. Valid points, or is this a lost cause in terms of use of time?

I was under the impression that the 1) fatty meal was not scientifically supported, as well as 2) the duration of the meal inasmuch as it is the start time of the meal that is relevant. As for #3 the argument would have to be that the stress started very close to 9 pm and somehow slowed or postponed the movement of initial chyme into the duodenum. I will take pointers on these. My impression is that this argument/discussion is going nowhere, but will gladly accept redirection.

From the link I previously provided:
"Studies of gastrointestinal transit have clearly demonstrated two related phenomena important to understanding this process:

Substances do not move uniformly through the digestive system.
Materials do not leave segments of the digestive tube in the same order as they arrive.
In other words, a meal is typically a mixture of chemically and physically diverse materials, and some substances in this mixture show accelerated transit while others are retarded in their flow downstream."

Meredith and her friends watched the film "The Notebook" that evening. Sounds pretty relaxing to me. I looked into this question a long time ago. IIRC the time at which the stomach would completely empty is dependent on the size and composition of the meal. But that is not the issue in this case.

 

[toto]

I recommend an additonal book to the above list. “Single Attacker Theory of the Murder of Meredith Kercher” by Ron Hendry, forensic engineer.

Thanks. Will read it.

 

[LondonJohn]

The thing about severe stress as it affects the digestive tract is that it tends to favour ditching unnecessary weight. Vomiting and diarrhoea. Brown trouser time. Stomach-churning.

Remember, Massei had Meredith lying on her bed idly playing with her mobile phone and making random pointless connections to the first (alphabetical) number in her address book (but for some reason not phoning her mother). Ideal conditions for normal digestion in fact.

Now we're being invited to imagine some sort of prolonged torture session, which has halted stomach action. It wouldn't do this. The stomach would churn, acids already secreted would continue to act on the contents, and the meal would degrade. It wouldn't look normal. If the stress was severe enough, the victim would vomit. Otherwise, digestion would continue.

By no stretch of the imagination does stress freeze time in the stomach. And when did this stress start, and who caused it? And where are the signs of this on Meredith's body?

This is taking special pleading to ridiculous lengths.

Rolfe.

I note with some amusement that your medical credentials are being ignorantly and incorrectly mocked by failed book reviewer Hugo B.

Of course, anyone who cares to find out will discover that you are indeed well-qualified to give an educated expert opinion on the Post Mortem examination, and specifically in relation to what it indicates regarding stomach/duodenum contents and ToD. In addition - as you yourself pointed out upthread - one need only have a scientific mind, an ability to conduct proper research, and critical thinking skills, in order to inform oneself sufficiently on this issue as a mere "layman".

 

[Rolfe]

One of the things I have to do with depressing regularity is look at the body of an animal and estimate how long it has been caught in a trap or a snare, both alive and dead. That is, how long did it suffer for, before it died, and how long did the body lie in the trap. The former to show that the law has been broken as regards "causing unnecessary suffering" and the latter to show that the law has been broken as regards all traps and snares being inspected every 24 hours.

Usually one can only give an estimate. Sometimes you have to do histopathology on the edge of the wound and determine how long healing continued for. Digestive tract contents are something we look at. I can assure you that an animal in severe pain caught in a tight snare and struggling to get free doesn't keep its last meal unchanged in its stomach while that happens.

I don't think you want any more details.

Nobody ever gave a coherent explanation in court as to why the digestive tract contents could be ignored when determining time of death. All that happened was that the word "unreliable" was thrown around by lawyers who had had their brains fried by a procession of publications being cited that described situations which weren't comparable in the slightest to the one under consideration.

Lawyers do this. It depresses me.

Rolfe.

 

[Rolfe]

So anyway, the severe stress would have had to have started very soon after 9 o'clock. Who was responsible for this? How was Meredith restrained? How long did it go on for? How come there was no evidence of any of this on her body?

How come, if something like this is necessary to explain the post mortem findings, did Massei decide she'd spent an hour or two lying on her bed essentially doing nothing?

Rolfe.

 

[MDDVS]

While I believe the murder happened before 10:30 stress is not a minor player in the digestive process, Digestive glands decrease or halt secretion of enzymes including acids during extreme stress, The mouth goes dry blood flow is directed to the extremities to flee,Digestive vessels constrict causing reduced blood flow. A nasty argument could put these physical changes into play.

Can you show me numbers? Where are you getting your data from?

 

[Rolfe]

I just noticed he's only postulating a "nasty argument". Who with? Starting when? Going on for how long?

It's ridiculous. And why do none of the official verdicts postulate anything like that? I'll tell you why. Because the lawyers had no idea how important the digestive tract contents were, or why they inevitably show what they show. They just thought they could handwave the whole thing away by saying the magic word "unreliable".

Well that magic word doesn't work. People's stomachs do not go into a state of suspended animation because of an argument.

Rolfe.

 

[Charlie Wilkes]

Am I on trial here?

ETA: I'm not sure I know what you think I cherry-picked. Do you mean the TOD argument?

To be completely accurate Dan O., Rolfe first made this comment:

“Explain to me how Amanda and Raffaele could have killed Meredith and left a body which still had all its early evening meal in the stomach with none of it in the duodenum.

That's the first hurdle to overcome. With that in the way, no, they cannot be guilty.”

When he/she said this, I wondered if it could really be that simple by definitively determining the TOD, then all of the other large amounts of forensic and circumstantial evidence would collapse like a house of cards.

From bouncing around, to being shunned, to being a minion – you could not be further from the truth. As far as a free thinker goes, I think we would all like to believe we are free thinkers, but philosophically speaking, I don't think this is possible because we are always influenced by so many variables.

If you want to know how I am presenting myself here, the closest 2 comments I have read that would represent this, would be the one from JREF 2010:

In a definitive way (my emphasis), “no one will know who committed the crime except for the three accused”.

The second is a quote on the bottom of the mod zooterkin's profile by Bertrand Russell: “The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts.”

What I was actually wondering, is if there were people who had doubts on either side of the divide.

I don't have any doubts Amanda and Raffaele are innocent.

Have you checked out the Bigfoot threads yet? You could have a field day with your Bertrand Russell quote.

 

[LBR]

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I honestly wish you luck in your quest,


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Thank you. However, many times I have asked myself, in trying to understand this case, who am I really serving, and to whom is my understanding even beneficial for? I wonder at times if it is just . . . I don't know how to say this politely – just an exercise in intellectual masturbation. And if I am to be completely honest, this is how I see this thread on JREF.

One more thought on the TOD though (to add to this self-gratifying behavior ):

If the exact TOD is so very important, then why does IIP not even mention it on their website in its case for innocence? If it is so important, why does the Hellmann report not even mention the topic of gastric emptying and TOD? If it is such an important aspect in definitively clearing the pair of guilt, why have none of the three defence lawyers so far, mentioned it in their most recent summations in Florence? (In all fairness, I don't know what all 4 lawyers said in the first trial in their summations because I do not read Italian).

If this was indeed one of the cruxes of this case, and since Cassation sent the case back because the
TOD didn't match the scream, one would think, if you are all correct in your opinions about gastric emptying and TOD, the defence lawyers would be all over this. They are not, for whatever reason. And so, I continue reading . . .

(If any answers to my questions involve the concept of the corruption of the entire Italian justice system, then I would end the conversation there. I don't engage in conspiracy-type of thinking. I am however, open to intellectual honesty).

Rolfe says: “It's ridiculous. And why do none of the official verdicts postulate anything like that? I'll tell you why. Because the lawyers had no idea how important the digestive tract contents were, or why they inevitably show what they show”.

It's very difficult to believe that after six years, with access to forensic specialists, the entire Italian legal defence team did not drive this point home. I'm not saying you are wrong, Rolfe. With due respect, I'm saying that I would like to see the opinion of other experts to see if they concur with your own.

I did read the link that contained many studies done by Camilleri on normal physiology. However, they are not studies in post-mortem gastric emptying in women who have been traumatically brutalized.

 

[Grinder]

LOL major find!! did it happen at 10:00 or 10:15 . I moved closer to 10 :15 to account for the near collision Guede had with the witness around 10:30.TOD and stomach contents would fit with that time if you consider a fatty meal , one that extended over a couple of hours and a digestive system halted by the stress encountered at the cottage. Pull all those posts up for me will you. Thanks

But, but they were in the plaza with Curatolo. He said they were there from 9:30 until almost midnight.

For your scenario to begin to work the kids would have to have been in the plaza and been spotted by Curatolo and then left to go kill Meredith when they saw Rudy show up with the stuff. Even though his testimony makes it clear he saw them every time he looked up. So you would have them go to the cottage (were they carrying the knife in the plaza) kill Meredith with Rudy and return to the same place in the plaza unnoticed by Curatolo. They would have to return before the car broke down, on e would think.

Meredith arrived home around 9 by all accounts. You would have her doing what while she hung out at the cottage?

She had eaten around 6 so a normal system would have chyme in the duodenum by latest 9 even if it was a pizza which isn't that fatty.

After the violent horrific murder do you think they were partially covered with blood? Did they avoid walking in the blood with their shoes? Why did Rudy run? who took the phones?

Do you now think that Nara awoke at 10:15? I guess her testimony is fungible.

 

[LBR]

Have you checked out the Bigfoot threads yet?

I don't have to. I have a picture I took from my backyard. It's a little fuzzy though.

 

[NancyS]

LOL major find!! did it happen at 10:00 or 10:15 . I moved closer to 10 :15 to account for the near collision Guede had with the witness around 10:30.TOD and stomach contents would fit with that time if you consider a fatty meal , one that extended over a couple of hours and a digestive system halted by the stress encountered at the cottage. Pull all those posts up for me will you. Thanks

Pizza = carbs

 

[Grinder]

If the exact TOD is so very important, then why does IIP not even mention it on their website in its case for innocence? If it is so important, why does the Hellmann report not even mention the topic of gastric emptying and TOD? If it is such an important aspect in definitively clearing the pair of guilt, why have none of the three defence lawyers so far, mentioned it in their most recent summations in Florence? (In all fairness, I don't know what all 4 lawyers said in the first trial in their summations because I do not read Italian).

As I read about it GB did mention TOD in her summation.

If this was indeed one of the cruxes of this case, and since Cassation sent the case back because the
TOD didn't match the scream, one would think, if you are all correct in your opinions about gastric emptying and TOD, the defence lawyers would be all over this. They are not, for whatever reason. And so, I continue reading . . .

They are but what do you mean match the scream. Rudy has it at 9:15-30.

Nara and Monacchia didn't have times and as you can see Briars has just moved the murder to 10:15. Neither ear witness could narrow the time down because neither one looked at a watch and neither one called the police.

(If any answers to my questions involve the concept of the corruption of the entire Italian justice system, then I would end the conversation there. I don't engage in conspiracy-type of thinking. I am however, open to intellectual honesty).

Are you open to gross incompetence? why do you think they waited until midnight to take the temperature of the body?

Rolfe says: “It's ridiculous. And why do none of the official verdicts postulate anything like that? I'll tell you why. Because the lawyers had no idea how important the digestive tract contents were, or why they inevitably show what they show”.

It's very difficult to believe that after six years, with access to forensic specialists, the entire Italian legal defence team did not drive this point home. I'm not saying you are wrong, Rolfe. With due respect, I'm saying that I would like to see the opinion of other experts to see if they concur with your own.

Why not read about the digestive system online. Lalli said in testimony that it takes from 2 to 4 hours. That makes the outside time 10 to 10:30.

I did read the link that contained many studies done by Camilleri on normal physiology. However, they are not studies in post-mortem gastric emptying in women who have been traumatically brutalized.

Do you think that when a woman is murdered the chyme reverses direction and goes back into the stomach?

 

[Bill Williams]

If the exact TOD is so very important, then why does IIP not even mention it on their website in its case for innocence? If it is so important, why does the Hellmann report not even mention the topic of gastric emptying and TOD? If it is such an important aspect in definitively clearing the pair of guilt, why have none of the three defence lawyers so far, mentioned it in their most recent summations in Florence? (In all fairness, I don't know what all 4 lawyers said in the first trial in their summations because I do not read Italian).

I can only guess. Defence lawyers have to skate carefully. Because the PMs and Judges are wedded far, far more closely in Italy, than the equivalents in North America, defence lawyers must be careful in the presentation of their case. Esp. careful in accusing "the other side" of engaging in illegal or incompetent activity.

Still, for the purposes of this JREF thread, I really couldn't care less if it was never mention by anyone at trial. We can argue back and forth the dynamics until we're blue in the face.

Mentions in court or no mentions in court, do not change the science. That's the trouble with science, isn't it.

 

[AmyStrange]

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Thank you. However, many times I have asked myself, in trying to understand this case, who am I really serving, and to whom is my understanding even beneficial for? I wonder at times if it is just . . . I don't know how to say this politely – just an exercise in intellectual masturbation. And if I am to be completely honest, this is how I see this thread on JREF.

One more thought on the TOD though (to add to this self-gratifying behavior ):

If the exact TOD is so very important, then why does IIP not even mention it on their website in its case for innocence? If it is so important, why does the Hellmann report not even mention the topic of gastric emptying and TOD? If it is such an important aspect in definitively clearing the pair of guilt, why have none of the three defence lawyers so far, mentioned it in their most recent summations in Florence? (In all fairness, I don't know what all 4 lawyers said in the first trial in their summations because I do not read Italian).

If this was indeed one of the cruxes of this case, and since Cassation sent the case back because the
TOD didn't match the scream, one would think, if you are all correct in your opinions about gastric emptying and TOD, the defence lawyers would be all over this. They are not, for whatever reason. And so, I continue reading . . .

(If any answers to my questions involve the concept of the corruption of the entire Italian justice system, then I would end the conversation there. I don't engage in conspiracy-type of thinking. I am however, open to intellectual honesty).

Rolfe says: “It's ridiculous. And why do none of the official verdicts postulate anything like that? I'll tell you why. Because the lawyers had no idea how important the digestive tract contents were, or why they inevitably show what they show”.

It's very difficult to believe that after six years, with access to forensic specialists, the entire Italian legal defence team did not drive this point home. I'm not saying you are wrong, Rolfe. With due respect, I'm saying that I would like to see the opinion of other experts to see if they concur with your own.

I did read the link that contained many studies done by Camilleri on normal physiology. However, they are not studies in post-mortem gastric emptying in women who have been traumatically brutalized.

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Yes, I think I see your dilemma. Your question about the IIP is something I didn't know about. I don't know why they don't. Have you asked them?

The science of the digestive processes being used in court is nothing new really. If I remember correctly (please feel free to correct me if I'm wrong), it's been around for a while, and it has been successfully used in murder cases to prove TOD.

It can be unreliable if the beginning of the last meal is not known. But if you are almost absolutely sure of that time, there are universally accepted data on this and when you go past those extremes, your probabilities go down as you get further and further away from the extremes.

Add Meredith's first try to reach her mother, and Rudy's Skype call, in my opinion, that increases the probability that she died at about 9:30, especially when you add all those probabilites together.

In conjunction with body temp it is even harder to disprove, but that is only within a window of hours, not days. The longer it takes to check the body temp, the more inaccurate the readings are for TOD. And what's odd to me is how long it took to finally take the body temp.

After that you have postmortem lividity and rigor mortis. For longer times, fly larva, state of decomposition and things like that. They have "farms" in Virginia, I think or maybe Tennessee, that are called body farms where they lay out real dead people and track the rate of decomposition, insect activity and weather conditions. It's fascinating, at least to me anyway. Some people think that's creepy. I just find it interesting.

All that was probably more than you wanted to read, sorry, and I do that mental masturbation thing also. You have nothing to fear from this quarter,

d

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