Merged Global Warming Discussion II: Heated Conversation

[macdoc]

sadly I have to agree on that assessment of AM

••••

good explanation of the jet stream influence on what is going on now

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_nzwJg4Ebzo#t=13

 

[lomiller]

I hear it also gets quite warm in the desert there as well.

Deserts tend to get very warm during the day, then very cold at night. The temperature drops so rapidly at night because they have relatively little greenhouse gas to trap that heat.

Like all science, greenhouse gasses explain many things that climate deniers would have us believe are mysterious, unexplainable, and just happen for no particular reason.

 

[Belz...]

I am not a hypocrite , I love my fossil fuels and the tremendous benefits they have brought to mankind.

So do I, but now it's time to switch to something else before we either run out or kill a whole bunch of people with them. And they're kinda dirty. I like my future bright and clean, like those old Sci-Fi movies.

 

[lomiller]

Mr Lion

Please help me understand something

When an area of the world experiences higher temperatures it is credited to Global Warming

When an area of the world experiences lower temperatures it cannot be credited to Global cooling

Thank you

These warm events are actually out of the ordinary and take place in the presence of warming. What you have been linking to are woo sites telling people cool events that are not even outside the norm, in places the scientific literature confirms are warming are somehow “proof” that scientists are all wrong and part of some big conspiracy.

Do you understand the difference now?

When an area of the world experiences lower temperatures it cannot be credited to Global cooling

In what part of the world are temperatures decreasing?

You seem to think that cold weather in cold climates is somehow proof the world is cooling. For some reason, you persist in this crackpot claim even after it’s been pointed out to you that the scientific literature shows these places are warming.

 

[Belz...]

De Nile...

http://www.madamasr.com/sites/default/files/photos/news/Nile River.jpg

That's not a convincing argument.

No, there's not a single thing humans can do which would have any effect on planetary weather.

Think about it: there has to be a point at which your action affects the global environment. How many millions of tons, I can't say, but there is a point at which it makes a difference. There's no logical way around it.

What I hope you're trying to say is "current human activity is insufficient to cause this kind of change", which is debatable. But to say it's impossible seems to indicate that you are basing this opinion on ideology, not facts.

 

[Belz...]

That is probably the truest statement in this whole debate.

Can you imagine during the very cold spell of the 1970's if I had proposed burning lots of fossil fuels and coal to release CO2 we could warm the whole planet up ???

Again, this shows that your objection is ideological and not fact-based. Or perhaps you will claim that you don't know the timescales involved ?

I have always felt that ice core samples are extremely hard to date accurately

Perhaps you should stop using your feelings as evidence, then.

My daughter sold her Toronto home and moved to Aurora partly because the IPCC said the Great Lakes would be 50% higher than what is predicted globally. She now has to spend 2 hours a day commuting to work in her CO2 Car . She keeps wondering if she also made an idiotic conclusion by listening to settled scientists.

Again: you seem to have a personal stake in this. This isn't a good way to go about doing science.

 

[r-j]

So do I, but now it's time to switch to something else before we either run out or kill a whole bunch of people with them.

Then switch. Show the world. This constant petulant demanding that "everybody else" do something, all the while you won't, it makes the entire thing seem so hypocritical in the extreme.

If you claim "it's too expensive" then you just joined the rest of the world in avoiding doing something about your problem. If "the problem" actually is fossil fuels (and it very well may be just that), then what is the solution? Is there a single advanced civilization anywhere in the world that has even one very small town, or even a neighborhood that runs with out fossil fuels? I live in a nuclear community, but the majority of emissions are from vehicles and farming. Neither can run off of nuclear power at the moment. (neither can aircraft or ships)

Is stopping burning carbon the solution?

If so, how do you do that? How does mankind live with out our many fires?

Isn't cement making a huge source of CO2? (it is). Isn't turning forests into grass lands or cities also causing warming? (it is)

What is the solution? Show me, don't just type more words about your thoughts. Show examples of how things will work in your view.

We now know what is happening, but we really don't know what to do about it yet.

No, it's obvious "we" don't know. Whatever that "we" even means.

This current brutal winter, as well as many of the past winters, was not expected by the global warming, nor is it a prediction of AGW that winters would become much colder.

(this also means a lot more fossil fuels are used for heating, increasing the carbon released each winter)

You can make things up all day long, it won't change the world.

 

[DC]

My daughter sold her Toronto home and moved to Aurora partly because the IPCC said the Great Lakes would be 50% higher than what is predicted globally. She now has to spend 2 hours a day commuting to work in her CO2 Car . She keeps wondering if she also made an idiotic conclusion by listening to settled scientists.

what projection are you talking about exactly? can you give me a link or tell me the exact source for this IPCC "prediction" ?

 

[Corsair 115]

This current brutal winter, as well as many of the past winters, was not expected by the global warming, nor is it a prediction of AGW that winters would become much colder.

Citations for this claim?

 

[r-j]

Citations for this claim?

Oh if only that were a requirement for posting in this thread! Then the people claiming the colder winters was predicted would have to show why they claim that.

I posted the source long ago, in the previous thread. It came up in the discussion of how boreal winter cooling has been observed, and it was unexpected. That anyone here doesn't know that global warming predicts the most warming in NH winters is sort of shocking.

 

[Corsair 115]

Oh if only that were a requirement for posting in this thread! Then the people claiming the colder winters was predicted would have to show why they claim that.

I posted the source long ago, in the previous thread. It came up in the discussion of how boreal winter cooling has been observed, and it was unexpected. That anyone here doesn't know that global warming predicts the most warming in NH winters is sort of shocking.

So you are going to not cite your claims? Okay then.

If we're going to engage in hearsay, as you seem to want to do, then I'll just say I recall reading lots of stuff about how, while the world is on a warming trend, that does not mean all parts get warmer in equal measure, but instead some parts will actually get cooler and others warmer. For example, if, as a result of the melting of the Arctic ice, a highly important Atlantic current stops flowing, that would result in lower temperatures in parts of Europe. Thus warming can cause cooling.

 

[Belz...]

Now you are coming around to the original point I have always been trying to make .... all Sweden has done is increase TAXES on fossil fuels

So what happens now ?? ... the planet sees that and begins to cool down ?? ... yeah right.!!

I have a better proposal .... how about we increase taxes 1000% on all the carbon products the Global Warmists consume .... CO2 levels would drop right off and the planet could live another day.

Give us a call when you're ready to take this debate seriously.

 

[Belz...]

Oh the irony!

[qimg]http://media.nzherald.co.nz/webcontent/image/jpg/20141/SCCZEN_AP131227195116_620x310.jpg[/qimg]
Northland could be thousands of kauri trees richer, thanks to the grounding of the Akademik Shokalskiy. Photo / AP

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/news/article.cfm?c_id=466&objectid=11181415

A-ha-ha. Strawmen and ignorance are such a great substitute for actual science !

 

[Belz...]

This is quite a turnabout for my thinking, as now I find myself on the receiving end of what used to be my own attitude towards anyone skeptical of any of the global warming claims.

Yeah, that's because your argument boils down to "it's cold now, therefore no warming." That's such a fundamental misunderstanding of what's going on that one can only conclude that your pro-AGW position was just as misguided.

 

[Belz...]

Then switch. Show the world. This constant petulant demanding that "everybody else" do something, all the while you won't, it makes the entire thing seem so hypocritical in the extreme.

Switch ? Do you have me confused with another poster ? I ask because I don't see how that has anything to do with anything I've ever said to anyone, anywhere.

For your information, my entire province is powered by hydro, so there's no switching to do, here.

 

[r-j]

So you are going to not cite your claims? Okay then.

Give us a call when you're ready to take this debate seriously. I already linked several times to the source, and it was discussed at length.

If we're going to engage in hearsay,

The only people not using links to scientific literature are the people claiming colder winter were predicted. Which is why I said it would be nice if everyone was required to back up their claims.

 

[r-j]

Yeah, that's because your argument boils down to "it's cold now, therefore no warming."

Give us a call when you're ready to take this debate seriously.

 

[That19Guy]

yeah its totally not true at all, all the evidence is faked, all those scientists around the world have conspired to deliver consistent data supporting the theory. All those darn Universities around the world are also in on it. and so are the animals and plants that pretend to change behavior consistent with changing climate.... all conspired just to tax your sorry ass.



or maybe you should not take Mr. Monckton's opinion above the evidence provided by scientists from around the world?

no wonder people laugh at denier clowns. they say so dumb stuff without thinking about it.....

http://science.howstuffworks.com/environmental/green-science/global-warming7.htm

 

[r-j]

With the record cold and snow, it's a good time to return to last winters attempt at education. It started with complaints about how quiet the topic was, and it also was a time of record cold and snow.

Winters have been getting colder. If this had been predicted as part of global warming, we would be hearing about how cold it's been, and crying over global warming.

Just like the mild winter last year in the US meant global warming.

You don't hear anyone except the poor Australians weeping over the warmth right now.

But as soon as it warms up, then we will see some activity. Because when it's hot in the summer, that's when you know global warming is happening.

Of course the fact that winters were getting colder was denied.

tell me again that winters have been getting colder.

For most scientists his reasoning doesn't add up, but Boris did get one thing right: winters are getting colder.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/2013/feb/01/weatherwatch-boris-johnson-cold-winter

As global temperatures rise, a new study indicates that winters in the northern hemisphere are set to get colder and snowier. Data from the last two decades suggests that this colder trend is already under way. Indeed the chilly winters of 2009/2010 and 2010/2011 caused many to question whether global warming was happening at all.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/2012/jan/22/weatherwatch-global-warming-climate-change

The world is getting warmer, which should mean warmer winters - right? Wrong - a new study shows that global warming produces colder winters and heavier dumps of snow for large swathes of the northern hemisphere
http://environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/article/news/48293

The world is warming, so why have winters been getting colder across much of Eurasia?
http://environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/article/news/52135

The first hurdle was getting the loudest posters to admit the winters were trending colder for large parts of the NH, especially parts where a lot of people live and work. Parts of Russia, China, India, Pakistan, most of Europe, Alaska and a lot of the US, Canada and Japan and Korea and Siberia. Those places.

It wasn't easy getting anyone to admit it, but after that hurdle, comes the next step. When the argument switched to how winters were colder, but it was actually global warming causing it!

If you couldn't grasp it the first time, repeating it won't really help.

Winters have been getting colder.

See? Now, after we all get over the shock, we can start complaining about global warming while we are buried in snow.

At least not everyone here is unable to follow a link and read!

If it's the underlying warming that's causing the changes in weather patterns that are resulting in some areas experiencing more severe winters - and the evidence is pretty compelling that it is - then the solution to the problem of roofes collapsing from record snow and not being able to get a flight or even drive anywhere is to tackle the underlying warming, yes.

I'm sorry if that's too much for some people to wrap their heads round, but there are many aspects of reality that are counterintuitive.

That is an understatement. With the 21st winter storm going on, and the 22nd coming on, and winter being over, it's got to be hard to sell the old global warming story. "Old" in this sense meaning "out of date and worn out".

Warming making it colder may seem like a tough concept, especially after all the years of saying the reverse, but it can be done. Evidence is always going to trump anything else.

Then it turned into "colder winters was predicted", which was really a funny bit.

Cold Winters Caused by Warmer Summers, Research Suggests
Jan. 16, 2012 — Scientists have offered up a convincing explanation for the harsh winters recently experienced in the Northern Hemisphere; increasing temperatures and melting ice in the Arctic regions creating more snowfall in the autumn months at lower latitudes.

Their findings may throw light on specific weather incidents such as the extremely harsh Florida winter of 2010 which ended up killing a host of tropical creatures, as well as the chaos-causing snow that fell on the UK in December 2010.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/01/120112193430.htm

If the new idea that melting sea ice can lead to colder winters (which is quite possible of course), then we have not only a possible mechanism to explain why winters have not been warming, and another reason to push for solutions to human caused climate change.

The problem is that ignorant people want to use a warm winter as "proof" of global warming, then also say a cold winter is also "proof" of global warming.

Or to say an Australian heat wave is proof. Or unusual cold is proof. It makes it sound like some woo woo nonsense.

Just joking around, it was really hard to get most of the usual suspects to even admit the winters were getting colder.

I posted that the winters are tending down, and explained, with links, why we know this is so.

Warmer summers cause colder winters, scientists say
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/13/us-climate-winter-idUSTRE80C0A520120113

Cold Winters Driven By Global Warming
Melting Arctic ice is to blame for the change in weather patterns, scientists say.
http://news.discovery.com/earth/cold-winter-snow-weather-global-warming-101222.htm

No response, and the denial still goes on. Some people still try to say it's not happening

So there is this unusual thing where people deny the winters are colder, then when they realize it's true, they switch and say it's global warming causing it. Then when it is pointed out that the theory predicts the opposite, they say no it predicted colder winters.

woo woo alert here folks.

serious woo woo alert.

Of course what was writ before still exists. So it's easy to deflate the overblown claims with evidence.

The unscientific continues.

Of course the science is being ignored. By the deniers.

That harsh winter that we are experiencing, it is not proof that global warming is not happening, but rather serves as proof that it is indeed happening, and even a bit faster than we might like to think.

http://www.skepticalscience.com/Global-Warming-Cold-Winters.html

Climate change brings colder winters to Europe and Asia

The world is warming, so why have winters been getting colder across much of Eurasia?

http://environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/article/news/52135

Cold Winters Driven By Global Warming

http://news.discovery.com/earth/cold-winter-snow-weather-global-warming-101222.htm

Cold Winters Caused by Warmer Summers, Research Suggests

http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?p=9084487#post9084487

Warmer summers cause colder winters, scientists say
Looking temperature and snow and ice data, researchers found that higher summer temperatures in the Arctic meant more moisture in the air, leading to more snowfall.

http://www.mnn.com/earth-matters/cl...r-summers-cause-colder-winters-scientists-say

More snow, especially early in the fall, has a feedback effect where the white snow reflects the sun, causing faster cooling, which leads to more snow, and the snow doesn't melt, so we get this amplification and it gets colder.

Colder, not warmer. And it is the warmer summers, and declining sea ice that may be causing the early snow.

So global warming has been making the winters colder (a clear trend), especially in February, which shows the most drastic decline of average temperatures. While this was obviously missed by almost every climate expert, a few have been predicting this. For decades.

Now that everybody knows it's happening, the climate experts are now switching, and publishing about how global warming is causing colder winters.

The sad thing is how this is being used to say all climate predictions mean nothing, when in fact it is how science advances. Once you know your theory is wrong, you change it.

That is science. Not denial of what is being observed.

Which is why the poor fool who still insists winters are warming is the real denier.

Or, the person who wants to claim the models actually predicted this. Now that is funny.

 

[Belz...]

Give us a call when you're ready to take this debate seriously.

Wow that was so clever ! You repeated my words to me. Hell, I have no idea how I'd even begin to answ--

Oh, wait. You didn't understand the context in which I used it, nor did you understand the post I made addressing you.

Your posts boil down to "it's cold now, so no AGW." That's silly and, I dare say, dangerous.

If you don't want to reevaluate your position, that's your business. Don't presume to bait me by posting nonsense. I will call you on it.