Merged Global Warming Discussion II: Heated Conversation

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Oh the irony! :p

The expedition relied on computer models, not real world reports. "That can't be sea ice, the computer says so!" And please, keep worrying: our being stuck proves global warming!
SCCZEN_AP131227195116_620x310.jpg

Northland could be thousands of kauri trees richer, thanks to the grounding of the Akademik Shokalskiy. Photo / AP

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/news/article.cfm?c_id=466&objectid=11181415
 
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What is worse .... Global Warming .... Big Oil .... Or Big Government .... ?????
Global Warming, of course. But Big Oil and the Big Governments that support it are major part of the problem.

Broken promises
This is just the latest in a series of setbacks for the renewable energy sector.
The government has gradually lowered a feed-in tariff... finally an energy reform in July opened up the possibility of withdrawing it retroactively
So are you for government support for the renewable energy sector, or against it?

What you have there is an example of a government which is trying to cut expenditure, ie. a shrinking government which is dodging its responsibilities. If you think they shouldn't withdraw the feed-in tariff then you must support 'big' government. Or do you think the only good government is one that does nothing?
 
Per post #1674. Why were they studying greenhouse gases in 1820? ??? This was before the Industrial Revolution?
Did someone think some atmospheric trend already was occuring, or what?
 
I see Haig posting from the usual right wing drivel......meanwhile Australia has had the hottest year ever.

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Australia's hottest year recorded in 2013
The Guardian ‎- by Oliver Milman ‎- 2 days ago
Australia experienced its hottest year on record in 2013, the Bureau of ... including: The warmest summer and spring seasons ever recorded.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jan/03/australias-hottest-year-recorded-in-2013

Using a local sea ice shift to predict the end of global warming...

:dl: shows how desparate some are to deny reality.

••

Iamme - here is a good history
http://www.aip.org/history/climate/summary.htm

Many things are studied in science out of pure curiosity of how the world works.
 
.meanwhile Australia has had the hottest year ever.

Snow falling. In Australia. In summer. That is all :D
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UPDATE: A day after we posted images of fresh summer snow falling across the Australian Alps, we've updated our original story with new images that show the ground getting whiter... and whiter... and whiter.

Best comment quote: "this is all predicted by Global Warming, sorry, Climate change! sorry Extreme weather..... The world is getting hotter, cooler, wetter, dryer.... It's all in the IPCC bible.... If you don't pay a tax on the air you breathe so we can redistribute your wealth we are all doomed....."

http://www.news.com.au/technology/e...mmer-that-is-all/story-e6frflp0-1226775945701
 
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The usual right wing nonsense..Anthony Sharwood this time...climate scientist??? uh ...no....
believer, chicken farmer.
likely doesn't buy evolution either...
https://twitter.com/antsharwood


and Anthony Watts your retired weather presenter in the pay of Heartland. What the Anthony's are buying is unsuspecting fools with fossil fuel subsidy money.

Anthony Watts | DeSmogBlog
www.desmogblog.com/anthony-watts‎
Jun 30, 2011 - Anthony Watts Credentials Anthony Watts studied Electrical Engineering and ... Anthony Watts was a speaker at the Heartland Institute's 7th ...

The Heartland Institute | DeSmogBlog
www.desmogblog.com/heartland-institute‎
The Anonymous Donor has already pledged $1,250,000 for 2012, including contributions to the NIPCC Project, Anthony Watts' "Weather Stations Project," and ...

Lovely science presentation there Haig sure to convince....
Snow in the Alps ....will wonders never cease....you do understand more global warmth = more moisture in the air??? you got that far in grade school science??

Tell us Haig....last time Dear Anthony tried something with some science behind it....how did that work out?

" The Koch Foundation, founded by the billionaire oil brothers who have been major funders of the climate-denial machine, gave BEST a $150,000 grant.
But Muller's congressional testimony last March didn't go according to plan. He told them a preliminary analysis suggested that the three main climate models in use today—each of which uses a different estimating technique, and each of which has potential flaws—are all pretty accurate: Global temperatures have gone up considerably over the past century, and the increase has accelerated over the past few decades. Last week, BEST confirmed these results and others in its first set of published papers about land temperatures.(Ocean studies will come later.) Using a novel statistical methodology that incorporates more data than other climate models and requires less human judgment about how to handle it (summarized by the Economist here), the BEST team drew several conclusions:

The earth is indeed getting warmer. Global average land temperatures have risen 0.91 degrees Celsius over the past 50 years. This is "on the high end of the existing range of reconstructions."
The rate of increase on land is accelerating. Warming for the entire 20th century clocks in at 0.73 degrees C per century. But over the most recent 40 years, the globe has warmed at a rate of 2.76 degrees C per century.
Warming has not abated since 1998. The rise in average temperature over the period 1998-2010 is 2.84 degrees C per century.
The BEST data significantly reduces the uncertainty of the temperature reconstructions. Their estimate of the temperature increase over the past 50 years has an uncertainty of only 0.04 degrees C, compared to a reported uncertainty of 0.13 degrees C in the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report.
Although many of the temperature measuring stations around the world have large individual uncertainties, taken as a whole the data is quite reliable. The difference in reported averages between stations ranked "okay" and stations ranked "poor" is very small.
The urban heat island effect—i.e., the theory that rising temperatures around cities might be corrupting the global data—is very small.
In the press release announcing the results, Muller said, "Our biggest surprise was that the new results agreed so closely with the warming values published previously by other teams in the US and the UK." In other words, climate scientists know what they're doing after all.

and that from a scientist hired by Watts et al....

http://www.alternet.org/story/15284...och_funded_researchers_confirm_global_warming

pardon my laughter but you are on the wrong end of the science Haig....and just hobnobbing with cranks.
 
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Per post #1674. Why were they studying greenhouse gases in 1820? ??? This was before the Industrial Revolution?
Did someone think some atmospheric trend already was occuring, or what?
That is one of the great things about general scientific knowledge. Mankind has a base understanding of our planet, chemistry, physics, thermodynamics, biology etc...., that continues to grow. But rarely is that knowledge useful directly. What happens when a problem comes along that needs solving is what we call a synthesis. A person or group of people take that scientific knowledge from disparate scientific fields and synthesize it together in ways never originally conceived by the original researchers. Generally the next step is to hash together a hypothesis and then what is called a "proof of concept" trial or trials to confirm or deny the synthesis. Next step generally is peer review which can be quite a vigorous debate and quite nasty at times. Especially when the synthesis causes a fundamental change in the way society views the world. Then the engineers, inventors etc... come in and try and make something useful out of it all.

With AGW we are still in the peer review stage, but it is coming to a close, as the scientific consensus is overwhelming. Mostly the last bit of resistance to this new view of the world is becoming ever more marginalized. They are still vocal though, because the change was so fast it is less than one generation and completely changes the way we view the world and our impact on our environment. Society takes longer to adjust. We simply don't take every man woman and child back to school to relearn every time something changes like this. Some will seek the new knowledge, and hopefully be able to discern the difference between the consensus and the vocal but ever more marginalized minority opinion. But others will just ignore it all and leave it to the "experts" to hash out.

To further confound the issue, AGW mitigation synthesis, hypothesis, and "proof of concept" phases with their nasty peer review process is beginning. And that isn't even close to consensus yet. To sum it up simply. We now know what is happening, but we really don't know what to do about it yet. Some of us think we know, but that hasn't even come close to consensus. Society watching this struggle often sees the two, AGW and AGW mitigation, as the same thing. They aren't, but considering the poor quality of the reporting in the general press, it is understandable. So when people see a AGW mitigation proposal they don't agree with, they have a tendency to hope that AGW is wrong, so they won't have to deal with that mitigation proposal. It is the "Ostrich with its head in the sand" or "Deer caught in the headlights" effect.

It is my opinion that we should just get on with it. Mitigation doesn't have to be perfect or in consensus to work. Government should use their influence to promote many forms of mitigation to get them up and running, then let market forces decide which ultimately are cost effective.
 
To a degree I agree - Sweden shows a strong planned path including nuclear in the mix.

There are two objectives.

...dealing with the warming we have instigated and will continue to reap the consequences of for the next couple of thousand years. Coping in other words.

.....attempting to reduce the carbon so that the immediate consequences are mitigated and the long term consequences delayed or eliminated.

For instance 2C by 2100 is not all that outside the Holocene and a climate held to that in a carbon neutral world will still drift back to a cooler regime over time as the orbital influences dictate preserving the major ice formations and leaving future generations with a similar benign climate that the current biome and human civilization developed in.

4C and up...??? ouch....very different long term and short term outcomes. A very altered world.
 
A ) your claim to use logic and critical thinking is woefully adrift based on the presented lack there of.

B) try the political forum -

Even the Oil sands leaders know we need a carbon tax

Oil sands pollution: Why industry wants the carbon tax Harper hates ...
business.financialpost.com/.../why-the-oil-sands-industry-wants-the-carb...‎
Feb 1, 2013 - Why the oil sands industry wants the carbon tax that Stephen Harper hates .
Exxon recognizes the risk of climate change...

ExxonMobil admits climate change is real (1) - Redding.com Blogs ...
blogs.redding.com/dcraig/archives/2013/09/exxonmobil-admi.html‎
Sep 7, 2013 - ExxonMobil is interested in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. They say. Below "Managing long-term climate risks" we read, "Rising ...

There is no moral ground for the west to deny emerging economies the right to use their fossil resources to build their wealth. Your posit is simply a delaying tactic.

It's the first world's responsibility to pay for the consequences of that wealth building of their own. - they enjoyed the energy use....now there is a delayed debt to meet.

Have you been in hiberation for 4 years? or just reacting to a cold snap driven by the Arctic dipole.
http://www.noaa.gov/features/02_monitoring/warmarctic.html

The atmosphere is not the only indicator of a warming world...in fact it's a minor aspect.
The real elephant in the room is the ocean.
Total_Heat_Content_1024.jpg


Care to explain this??? hardly a pause....more like an acceleration...

heat_content2000m.png


we will wait while you waffle about it....:rolleyes:

Do recall this is a science forum not a political forum.
Here - arguments are expected to be supported by science.....do you have any?
 
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another good explanation of our cold and snowy eastern North America

late December 2010 saw extreme meridionality with Polar air surging deep into NW Europe - compare with the positive NAO illustration above!

This brings us to the recent paper by Liu et al that has been in the news. In a nutshell their work involved examining observational data for winter (DJF) in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere and comparing it using numerical methods with the variations in Autumn sea-ice extent. They found changes in winter atmospheric circulation that resembled the negative phase of the AO - except that the meridional meanders that occurred took a different form and a different year-to-year variability than shown by the classic AO, with more frequent blocking patterns and greater snowfall, a factor with respect to the latter being an enhanced air-moisture content. Thus, they suggested, the ongoing reduction in sea-ice is playing a critical role in recent cold and snowy winters. They found that the most pronounced increase in blocking-related cold Arctic surges was over the eastern and midwestern USA and from NW Europe east and southeast to central China, with, as mentioned above, a rather persistent warm anomaly over NE Canada and Western Greenland, affected by warm air advection up from the Atlantic.

To quote Liu et al, "while natural chaotic variability remains a component of midlatitude atmospheric variability, recent loss of Arctic sea ice, with its signature on midlatitude atmospheric circulation, may load the dice in favour of snowier conditions in large parts of northern midlatitudes". This does not, of course, mean that just one factor will from now on control our winters: ENSO, the AO and the NAO will all continue to play their roles and at the time of writing conditions here are mild and the NAO has been running in positive mode for some time, keeping NW Europe mild with double-figure daytime maxima widespread.

http://www.skepticalscience.com/declining-arctic-sea-ice-record-snowfalls-are-they-linked.html
 
From the link:

"The rise in the surface temperature of earth has been markedly slower over the last 15 years than in the 20 years before that. And that lull in warming has occurred even as greenhouse gases have accumulated in the atmosphere at a record pace."

This is false, as it can be easily demonstrated:

 
When you first posted the following, I just ignored it, as I found all the global warming stuff unimportant, boring, useless, since global warming was a fact, arguing over it a waste of time. The sort of thing people did who had too much time on their hands.

Now I find most of what you posted in 2010 to be quite revealing, and more than likely true.

Let's face it. It's time to talk about the elephant in the room. Finally. It's been covered extensively in mainstream media across the world in the past couple of weeks. Now the highly reluctant and shamed American mainstream media has no choice but to start to report on it.

Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. Not wild claims without foundations. Not imaginary projections. Pictures of polar bears stranded on ice is not evidence for AGW. Nor are opinions on when so-and-so glacier will melt in the future without scientific foundation. The anthropogenic global warming movement is floundering because it is not based on logical arguments and good science. It is based on "truthiness". This truthiness foundation has now been exposed.

1) If it were real science, it would be transparent (unlike the way the IPPC has operated).

2) Real science doesn't involve mysterious disappearing data. We're all just supposed to take their word that the dog ate the homework, like in the Chinese samples?

3) Real science doesn't hinge on a propriety computer modeling program that nobody else has access to and can test and experiment with. I read that now, suddenly, they're going to let outsiders use their program, test it, and subject themselves to actual peer review.

4) Real science can be replicated by other people. See points 2 and 3 above.

5) Real science involves research and facts, rather than opinions and truthiness. See the "glaciergate" and the "rainforestgate" and points 2, 3, 4 above.

6) Real science can be used to accurately predict things. Absolutely NOTHING has ever been predicted with any accuracy by the AGW proponents. Period.

7) There is no final authority body in science which you can’t challenge. Maybe, just maybe, that's finally sinking in. Is it?

The "science" of the man-made global warming movement fails on every point above, all required by the way every other science works. COMPARE THIS WITH REAL SCIENCE. LIKE, SAY, EVOLUTIONARY SCIENCE. IT MEETS ALL THE ABOVE SCIENTIFIC CRITERIA IN SPADES.

What we've seen out of these people is NOT science by any acceptable standard. Nor are their arguments logical. They've built a mountain out of logical fallacies like Appealing to Authority and Confusing Causation with Correlation, while trying everything they can to block and ridicule healthy skepticism and the normal process of peer review and the way in which science works.

And then there’s that massive transfer of wealth in tax dollars with no certainty that anything real is being accomplished or can be proven to be accomplished. Truthiness is not good enough to support this kind of expenditure. Just like truthiness wasn't good enough to start the Iraq war, for example.

The AGW movement have built what resembles a religion more than anything else. It is based on faith and rejects all skepticism out of hand, typically with name-calling and defensive ridicule. And that is why it has crumbled when the facts are simply brought out of the closet, and it is placed under a skeptical eye.

The elephant in the room has been identified. It can no longer be ignored. I say, let real scientists and skeptics lead the way in reassessing and reforming AGW study. It doesn't seem implausible that there's something to it. It seems likely to have a minor influence, IMHO. However, truthiness has no place in science -- especially such expensive science on the largest public scale.

This is quite a turnabout for my thinking, as now I find myself on the receiving end of what used to be my own attitude towards anyone skeptical of any of the global warming claims.

What we've seen out of these people is NOT science by any acceptable standard. Nor are their arguments logical. They've built a mountain out of logical fallacies like Appealing to Authority and Confusing Causation with Correlation, while trying everything they can to block and ridicule healthy skepticism and the normal process of peer review and the way in which science works.
I don't think it's that black and white, but it certainly seems to be in the minds of many, and even just saying that I find it so, is enough to incur the ready wrath of the faithful.

Even my tongue in cheek response earlier was misconstrued. I was simply making the same point, but in a much shorter way.

It's a shame emotion is so much more powerful than logic and reason. Shoot, for all I know this will also be misconstrued in the worst possible light.
 
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Snow falling. In Australia. In summer. That is all :D
[qimg]http://resources1.news.com.au/images/2013/12/06/1226776/639641-61280220-5dee-11e3-8eb9-1c57f26bd260.jpg[/qimg]



Best comment quote: "this is all predicted by Global Warming, sorry, Climate change! sorry Extreme weather..... The world is getting hotter, cooler, wetter, dryer.... It's all in the IPCC bible.... If you don't pay a tax on the air you breathe so we can redistribute your wealth we are all doomed....."

http://www.news.com.au/technology/e...mmer-that-is-all/story-e6frflp0-1226775945701
No surprises, but all that snow has melted again. http://www.thredbo.com.au/mountain/live-cams/
 
Does it usually snow in the middle of summer in Australia? I thought it was the hottest ever there right now.

How can it be snowing? Or is that a year round thing?
 
Snow plows needed in JULY after crazy summer storm leaves more ...

2037053.jpg

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/.../Snow-plows-needed-JULY-crazy-summer-...‎
Jul 8, 2013 - In some areas of New Mexico it looked more like the Christmas Day than Independence Day...

Formation of The Australian Alps - Geological Sites of NSW
www.geomaps.com.au/scripts/australianalps.php‎
Formation of The Australian Alps. Latitude -36.415964, Longitude 148.623476. Located in the Snowy Mountains Region of NSW, nearest town Jindabyne.

New Mexico is 34 degrees north....2 degrees nearer the equator than your....ahem ....Snowy Mountains.

The Snowy Mountains are in the south east of New South Wales, and are the highest point in Australia’s Great Dividing Range. Much of the region is incorporated into Kosciuszko National Park. At 2,228m,

New Mexico mean elevation is 1,700m.
It can generally snow any time of the year in Alpine environments......your little snips of nonsense of just leave the impression there is no substance to your claims.....but of course there is not.

••

I'm have fun finding out just how nuts the weather was in 2013 in many areas. :boggled:
 
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Generally these are due to orographic rainfall. Moist air is forced up the hills and chills. The cooler air can't support the high moisture content so it gets dumped as rain or snow.

Editted because of rubbish typing...
 
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