[Merged] Immortality & Bayesian Statistics

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Merged in thread from the MDC sub-forum on the same topic, apologies for any confusion from overlapping posts.
Posted By: zooterkin
 
abaddon said:
Uhh, he thinks he has already.
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It's difficult to believe that even Jabba thought that starting a thread in the MDC subforum constituted an application for the MDC, but the conclusion seems inescapable.

Perhaps now that the thread has rightly been merged with the original he'll follow the links to the MDC rules and FAQ helpfully posted above and find out what's actually required.
 
Dumb All Over said:
Jabba, when will you be submitting your application for the Million Dollar Challenge to the JREF?
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Dumb All Over,
- I hoped I was doing it by starting that thread under Million Dollar Challenge...
- HighRiser suggested that I read the instructions...
- I guess he has a point...
- Thanks.
 
Last edited:
- I seem to be striking out. So far, I can't find
1) the instructions, or
2) the thread I started...
 
Pixel42 said:
It's difficult to believe that even Jabba thought that starting a thread in the MDC subforum constituted an application for the MDC, but the conclusion seems inescapable.

Perhaps now that the thread has rightly been merged with the original he'll follow the links to the MDC rules and FAQ helpfully posted above and find out what's actually required.
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Pixel,
- Is this thread the original?
 
Pixel42 said:
Wait, he's serious? He really thinks he can apply for the MDC based on the not-even-wrong mathematical gibberish he's been posting that we all gave up even trying to make any sense of?
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Pixel,
- Again, specify one of my claims that you can't make sense of, and I'll try again.
 
Spindrift said:
How would immortality be paranormal?
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Spindrift,
- Well, it clearly doesn't fit the currently accepted scientific model.
- It would ultimately appear to be non-physical. And,
- I accept that it may not be considered paranormal by the administration. If so, I suppose I would try to convince them that it is -- though, I doubt I would succeed.
 
Jabba, how about addressing some of the objections that have already been raised, instead of asking for new ones?

Specifically, where are you getting your numbers?

What do you mean by "approaches zero"?
 
Jabba said:
- Well, it clearly doesn't fit the currently accepted scientific model.
- It would ultimately appear to be non-physical.
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I don't see why immortality needs to be impossible for a physical body. We understand a lot about why our bodies age and wear out, as well as disease, and it doesn't seem to be outside science to believe it may be possible to address those to produce immortality (excluding accidents, etc.).
And,
- I accept that it may not be considered paranormal by the administration.
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I think you are right.
If so, I suppose I would try to convince them that it is -- though, I doubt I would succeed.
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Right again, though for different reasons.
 
Pixel42 said:
Took me about 5 seconds each.
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Pixel,
- Looks like my claim would not apply, but I'd like to find out for sure without going through the application process. I will pose my question on "Contact us," unless I get guidance otherwise.
 
godless dave said:
Jabba, how about addressing some of the objections that have already been raised, instead of asking for new ones?

Specifically, where are you getting your numbers?

What do you mean by "approaches zero"?
Click to expand...
...
Jabba said:
- Somewhere back in time, I provided the following information and claims. Since that time, I've received numerous questions and objections. I think that I have now answered all of those. Have I missed anything?

- Below, “SM” is the current consensus “Scientific Model”; “NSM” is any possible explanatory model other than the “SM.” “k” is existing knowledge minus the implications I perceive in the fact of my own existence. Here’s the formula:
- P(SM|me) = P(me|SM)*P(SM|k)/P(me|SM)*P(SM|k)+P(me|NSM)*P(NSM|k)

- My estimates:
- P(me|SM) either approaches zero, or is simply unimaginably small. (I think that it approaches zero.)
- For P(SM|k), I’m ALLOWING that given our existing knowledge, P equals 99%. (I don’t THINK that it’s nearly that much.)
- P(NSM|k) is simply what’s left after subtracting P(SM|k) – or, 1%.

- Consequently:
- P(SM|me) = (~.0000…1)*(.99)/(~.0000…1)(.99)+(.9)(.01)
- P(SM|me) = ~.0000…1/~.0000…1+.009
- P(SM|me) = ~.0000…1/~.009
- P(SM|me) = ~.0000…1

- If I haven't missed anything, I must have won!
- And therefore, most likely, each of us individual consciousnesses either live multiple lives or are infinitely alive!
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Dave,
- By "approaches zero," I mean one over infinity.
 
zooterkin said:
I don't see why immortality needs to be impossible for a physical body. We understand a lot about why our bodies age and wear out, as well as disease, and it doesn't seem to be outside science to believe it may be possible to address those to produce immortality (excluding accidents, etc.)...
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Zoo,
- Yeah, but my claim is that we are immortal already, and without any physical intervention.
 
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