No, Jabba. Just no.
The figures you put into your Bayes equation are estimates with no evidentiary basis, or as some people call them "wild guesses".
You haven't shown any evidence that the complement of "the current scientific model" is your particular idea of several lives or long life - the current scientific model explains a whole lot more than just finite lives. If there is another model which could explain, everything about our universe, you haven't even begun to describe it, or shown any evidence for the existence of this model.
You haven't shown any evidence to lead anyone to suspect that life or consciousness can survive the death of the brain.
Lastly, though I don't speak for the JREF, I very much doubt that a 'proof' of immortality which is simply some guessed numbers put into an equation, the output of which is then fudged so that 'very small' becomes zero, will fly as evidence for the paranormal.
As to people abandoning your thread, sometimes it's just a better use of one's time to stop banging one's head against the same brick wall.