[Merged] Immortality & Bayesian Statistics

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Toontown said:
Actually, my post was directed mostly to lenny and others who don't seem to recognize that it is the presumed high probability nothingness they are not experiencing, which is actually the other possibility implied by #1.

And then there is the larger crowd who don't seem to differientiate between the sum of all low probability events and a specified one, leading them to say things like "So? Unlikely things happen all the time."
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What is it that you think we are missing?
 
Immortality

Hi,

- I would like to post a "Million Dollar Challenge."
- It seems to me that "toontown" and I are winning our debate -- arguing for the immortality of individual consciousness -- in my thread "Immortality & Bayesian Statistics." Our opponents seem to have "given up"...

- Mostly, I think that we haven't received "your best shot(s)," and I would like you guys to "call out the Mounties." I'd like to get to the mathematical bottom of this idea.
- And, if I can post such a challenge, we ought to get your best shot(s) -- and also, to the bottom of this idea.

- Thanks.

--- Jabba
 
dafydd said:
Pardon my obtuseness, but what does all this have to do with immortality which after all does not exist.
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dafydd,
- I'm thinking that if we (toontown and I) can show that the probability of each of us "selves" living only one finite life is only one over infinity (or even something close), we have essentially "proven" something that is currently considered paranormal, and we would deserve that million dollars...
 
Jabba said:
dafydd,
- I'm thinking that if we (toontown and I) can show that the probability of each of us "selves" living only one finite life is only one over infinity (or even something close), we have essentially "proven" something that is currently considered paranormal, and we would deserve that million dollars...
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Pardon the plain speaking but that is nonsense. Nobody lives forever. You must be bored if you spend your time doing this.
 
If you're still alive in a few hundred years, sure.

I can't imagine any other way to test immortality.
 
Jabba,

I think Feynman encapsulated your error thusly:

You know, the most amazing thing happened to me tonight. I was coming here, on the way to the lecture, and I came in through the parking lot. And you won't believe what happened. I saw a car with the license plate ARW 357. Can you imagine? Of all the millions of license plates in the state, what was the chance that I would see that particular one tonight? Amazing!
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Jabba said:
Hi,

- I would like to post a "Million Dollar Challenge."
- It seems to me that "toontown" and I are winning our debate -- arguing for the immortality of individual consciousness -- in my thread "Immortality & Bayesian Statistics." Our opponents seem to have "given up"...

- Mostly, I think that we haven't received "your best shot(s)," and I would like you guys to "call out the Mounties." I'd like to get to the mathematical bottom of this idea.
- And, if I can post such a challenge, we ought to get your best shot(s) -- and also, to the bottom of this idea.

- Thanks.

--- Jabba
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Some tests for you.

Go outside your front door right now and write down the registration of the first car you see. Calculate the odds of seeing that particular registrations possible, ever.

Go to your electricity meter right now and write down the number you see. Calculate the odds of you seeing that particular number at that instant in time.

Take out any random bill from your wallet and write down it's serial. Calculate the odds of you having a bill out of all the bills ever printed bearing that particular serial.

Go out to your yard and look at the stars. Calculate the odds that one of those stars has gone supernova and is no longer there at all.

Report back.
 
Jabba said:
Hi,

- I would like to post a "Million Dollar Challenge."
- It seems to me that "toontown" and I are winning our debate -- arguing for the immortality of individual consciousness -- in my thread "Immortality & Bayesian Statistics." Our opponents seem to have "given up"...

- Mostly, I think that we haven't received "your best shot(s)," and I would like you guys to "call out the Mounties." I'd like to get to the mathematical bottom of this idea.
- And, if I can post such a challenge, we ought to get your best shot(s) -- and also, to the bottom of this idea.

- Thanks.

--- Jabba
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Get back to us in about five hundred years. Isn't there a humour forum for this kind of thing?
 
Jabba said:
dafydd,
- I'm thinking that if we (toontown and I) can show that the probability of each of us "selves" living only one finite life is only one over infinity (or even something close), we have essentially "proven" something that is currently considered paranormal, and we would deserve that million dollars...
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1. Which has...what...to do with "immortality"?

2. If existing at your claimed odds of "1/infinity" is the normal way we all are, how can it be considered "paranormal"?
 
Slowvehicle said:
1. Which has...what...to do with "immortality"?

2. If existing at your claimed odds of "1/infinity" is the normal way we all are, how can it be considered "paranormal"?
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They're having us on. It's up to us if we go along with the joke or not. What is the potential comedy rating?
 
Wait, he's serious? He really thinks he can apply for the MDC based on the not-even-wrong mathematical gibberish he's been posting that we all gave up even trying to make any sense of?
 
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