Abenomics: medicine or poison for Japan?

[The Don]

As usual zerohedge presenting half the story, they didn't report on the following rebound and didn't detail how short the period was at the bottom.

 

[kevsta]

As usual zerohedge presenting half the story, they didn't report on the following rebound and didn't detail how short the period was at the bottom.

well because that happened after they published?

if the Nikkei closes around these levels now or higher today this then looks like a re-run of the S&P two weeks ago, and regrettably (for a diehard truculent bear) it's probably also bullish. we'll know a bit more at the end of the day, if we close back down near the lows again, that wont look so good.

edit, we're currently looking at a 350 point pin to the lows, that's big enough to have stopped out pretty much all the last few days muppet longs, so it's entirely possible it now breaks out higher towards 16k again.

 

[kevsta]

Again, my contention is while the speculators are chasing nickels and dimes on every hiccup in a squiggly line, investors who had confidence in Japan's economy just rode the Nikkei up, and have solid gains to show for it.

but do they? or will they still tomorrow? meanwhile the sum of all my Nikkei dabbling (and only for a laugh, here, really) is as below, minus another 120

which nets out to +$261.44 OR +2.6% fund size, in 4 weeks messing about, and non-returnable ie that +2.6% is still there at the end of the year even if I go on holiday until the end of it, and the markets all crash.

and no, the Nikkei is not my bread and butter, its really all about Forex. I'm also not going to continue posting live account stats in public any more but am happy to PM links to anybody who wants them, currently 4.99% up on my USD account and 6.97% on my Eu account in 4 weeks trading.

I too find the lines, squiggles circles and so forth unconvincing but kevsta is putting his money where his mouth is so all power to him.

still nobody is listening to what I'm actually doing with the squiggles really though, are they?

I take this to be because if I am consistently successful at trading manipulation in the markets, then it becomes just another CT turned C and nobody wants to think too deeply about that.

 

[Fast Eddie B]

I take this to be because if I am consistently successful at trading manipulation in the markets, then it becomes just another CT turned C and nobody wants to think too deeply about that.

Glad that you seem to be up!

Have you thought deeply about what happens when the perfect algorithm is finally discovered and everyone starts using it?

Again, keep up the good work, but beware the special pleading and post hoc rationales that keep creeping into your posts.

 

[kevsta]

Glad that you seem to be up!

Have you thought deeply about what happens when the perfect algorithm is finally discovered and everyone starts using it?

Again, keep up the good work, but beware the special pleading and post hoc rationales that keep creeping into your posts.

once again, its not an algorithm, it is (manual, human-powered) identification and profiting from the daily retail trader manipulation on the electronic facade they trade.

edit. just saw this too

I'm sure that it's just for now - he'll probably reapply his models later on and find that there are periods when they do produce the expected results - like perhaps 50% of the time or thereabouts

1. winning 50% of the time is way harder than coin tossing. (why is that?)
2. winning 50% of the time recurring at 2:1 risk:reward = riches beyond your wildest dreams.

50% will do just fine

 

[G6000]

Abenomics = currency war.

You'll be able to pick up a Lexus real cheap, but if you think South Korea is going to just sit around while Japan bites into its export markets, you are the fool at the table.

 

[G6000]

Japan's working age population is declining. Less workers, more old folks.

Less workers means less production. Less workers also means upward pressure on wages.

More old folks means more transfer payments. More old folks also means all those people who were buying bonds will be selling them in their retirement. So who will buy them then?

If interest rates rise just one percent more in Japan, interest payments will become 80 percent of revenues. Good luck with that, Abe!

 

[lomiller]

Abenomics = currency war.

You'll be able to pick up a Lexus real cheap, but if you think South Korea is going to just sit around while Japan bites into its export markets, you are the fool at the table.

If they don’t face deflationary pressures similar to what Japan is trying to deal with South Korea would be better served to take the increased purchasing power and higher standard of living a relatively stronger currency provides. Should South Korea try to follow the Yen down without respect to their domestic economic situation the result will certainly be inflation and asset bubbles.

 

[kevsta]

once again, its not an algorithm, it is (manual, human-powered) identification and profiting from the daily retail trader manipulation on the electronic facade they trade.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...most-since-08-as-trends-shift-currencies.html

Humans are proving more adept than computers in reacting to the Federal Reserve’s mixed messages on when policy makers will reduce their unprecedented stimulus.

Currency funds that use computer models for trading decisions made 0.9 percent this year through May, compared with 2.5 percent for those that don’t, the biggest margin since 2008, according to the latest data from Parker Global Strategies LLC. Hong Kong-based Ortus Capital Management Ltd.’s $1.1 billion computer-model fund lost 13.8 percent in the first half, while the FX Concepts Global Currency Fund, which employs a similar strategy, fell 3.3 percent, Barclay Hedge Ltd. data show.

uh huh. that's pretty rubbish for supposed pros isn't it? ..that's because they mostly think it's real and don't even understand what the game they are playing is.

by comparison this human has had a frustrating and choppy first 3 days of (this) trading week, where almost no setups (from many) have followed through properly, and has therefore been trading at only 20 or 40% position size, so is only up a frustratingly low +2.3% +2.5% this week thus far and a 5 week (and YTD in fact) total of +9.3% +9.5% portfolio size with one Euro Yen trade running currently. reports available via PM for non-believers, just ask.

still looking at the Nikkei big picture (last weekend) the technicals are still undecided on whether Abenomics works IMO.

I personally think that he is going to have to up the stimulus to make the markets make new highs, and that if he hasn't got any more in his pocket..

the daily chart (from the weekend) shows wh'appen.. I don't think this breaks out above 15665 and runs north, without first coming back into that yellow zone. If we hit 15665 first I would short there, and if we get into the yellow zone and setup for a long, I might even do that too.

and the 4 hourly chart (now) shows a rolling-over (past tense) in play, looks like we have an intermediate downtrend again unless something spectacular happens.

 

[kevsta]

and.. for all those here who think markets are driven by news and fundamentals, I thought I'd explain to you what's going on in that pink herding triangle. what you have there is a period of distribution where smart money are once again offloading their earlier buys and accumulating sells gradually, without wanting to disturb price too much yet.

what you also have, is retail traders (herefore known as the herd) buying things that go up, and selling things that go down. please notice how if you bought at any point outside the top of the triangle, always, within a bar or two, you were underwater almost immediately. the same applies for any of the herd selling below the bottom of the triangle, a bar or two later, you are either negative, (or stopped out)

remember, there is also a small spread, so you are immediately slightly negative as you buy, and are then dragged backwards into negative float and never see your price level again to get out at zero or above until the shift bar (if you're short, - if you were long and are still in, the shift bar is your worst nightmare)

most people will have been stopped out on the immediate subsequent runs to the other side of the triangle, only the brave (let it ride) or the stupid (move their stops because they don't want to take the loss) are still in and now they might have to ride out 3 downward cycles again first.

this is how they take new trader's whole accounts.

 

[Fast Eddie B]

That is just TOO COOL!

Look at the way the prices just jump around, almost randomly it seems, yet still stay within the shaded triangle!

Except when they don't, of course. But what does THAT matter?

 

[kevsta]

still looking at the Nikkei big picture (last weekend) the technicals are still undecided on whether Abenomics works IMO.

I personally think that he is going to have to up the stimulus to make the markets make new highs, and that if he hasn't got any more in his pocket..

I don't think this breaks out above 15665 and runs north, without first coming back into that yellow zone. If we hit 15665 first I would short there, and if we get into the yellow zone and setup for a long, I might even do that too.

[qimg]http://clip2net.com/clip/m0/1374688315-nikkeidaily-32kb.png[/qimg]

looking like it's all up to Abe again.. can he? will he? is it even possible any man could print any moar? what comes after quintillion anyway?

because we already know it is all just about the CBs now and we're never going to get to Dollar Yen 200 and hyperinflation and new Nikkei all time highs at this rate are we?

 

[kevsta]

That is just TOO COOL!

Look at the way the prices just jump around, almost randomly it seems, yet still stay within the shaded triangle!

Except when they don't, of course. But what does THAT matter?

I think maybe the only way you're possibly ever going to understand what I'm talking about is to go here, download MT4, open a demo account, and just try trading and at least holding onto your money.

you could be like my control group, a complete random with zero strategy just doing what looks good, and see if (random) you can outperform my benchmarks.

until then we have a comprehension gap I'm afraid.

 

[kevsta]

I guess my main observation is how many "sell" or "short" squiggles, and "resistance levels" broken through, were there during this seemingly inexorable rise.

If kevsta profited from it I'd still like to know. As well as if he didn't.

"inexorable" a mere 3 weeks later and it somehow seems all "exorable" once again. it was just another distribution period, "investor" types seem to get so carried away and distracted by a few days of spiky stuff it's quite funny.

Yes, ultimately (a whole 3 weeks! later) I did profit from this at +$200 ish yesterday. it actually happened automatically while I was sleeping or I would have let the short run much further.

But let's understand this properly though, it just took me 3 whole weeks to make +2% (non-refundable) on the portfolio, from one trade, where I was actually briefly wrong. If I had been right at the time, the 2% would have been in a few hours. ..and it's not dependent on what the Nikkei does tomorrow night, as to whether I get to keep it.

I dont know how "investors" can sleep at night frankly

I'm sure that it's just for now - he'll probably reapply his models later on and find that there are periods when they do produce the expected results - like perhaps 50% of the time or thereabouts

apart from the fact that 50/50 win loss would mean substantial wealth for me anyway, this is really not very fair, as nobody has ever said that me or any trader can predict every little move and the timing any more than 50% of the time anyway.

But as I have substantially proven to you on demo for months and live now for weeks, it can be done, and with correct risk / reward, it can also be done profitably.

because, once again, (as with the Euro here)

and that's a proper line in the sand picked from some 300 pips higher (scroll up, we were at 1.30+ when I first posted that) isn't it? notice how overnight the price once again puts only a pin through my pre-chosen line, closing on it before reversing? http://fxpro.ctrader.com/c/CwB5n

also notice here that not once on any of those bars did price close below my line, spikes through but exactly on it, not below?

several days ago I publicly pointed out the line I thought we were coming back to before any breakout was possible. here's an up close look at yesterday's Nikkei Futures movement.

so once again I ask, how is this possible? how about you tell me how I've managed to guess 2 critical stop points (and end of day lows) in as many weeks, days in advance, to fractions of a percentage point errors?

I keep telling you, but no-one's listening it seems. how about some of you start trying it yourselves to be my control group eh?

clue: they are not called "High Probability Manipulation Points" for no reason.

 

[a_unique_person]

It's the limits of growth issue. Japan has nowhere to go economincally, yet capitalism can only thrive with growth, and the orthodoxy assumes this is so. Japan has to break the rules. Would you call this Virtual growth.

 

[kevsta]

Would you call this Virtual growth.

"Imaginary" ? "Pretend" ?

at some point we are going to be forced to accept that exponential growth in the financial system and nowhere else is just more naked Emperors.

 

[Fast Eddie B]

kevsta,

I'm still trying to see those charts as you do - as statistically successful predictors of future price moves.

When I see these lines and triangles and the like superimposed over charts, I am still leaning towards paraedolia.

As in the shaded triangle a few posts back, it seems that many geometric shapes, including other triangles, could be made to "fit" the price moves.

I wonder...do others watching this thread actually see the meaningful patterns that kevsta does?

But I continue to root for you - honestly I want you to use the tools and skills you possess to roll your "stash" into huge profits down the road. Just because I've seen lots of others try and fail over the years does not mean you might not be onto something now.

Keep it up and keep us informed of your progress. I find it an interesting voyage into a land I do not inhabit, but may have truths I've simply neglected to see for all these years.

 

[kevsta]

kevsta,

I'm still trying to see those charts as you do - as statistically successful predictors of future price moves.

that's fair enough amigo, it took me ages to "see" them too. all you need to do to really understand them though is to get involved, and see how consistently and efficiently a supposedly random process takes your money.

an approaching 100% first time trader account blowup rate is not random at all, it is very much part of the overall SM strategy.

When I see these lines and triangles and the like superimposed over charts, I am still leaning towards paraedolia.

As in the shaded triangle a few posts back, it seems that many geometric shapes, including other triangles, could be made to "fit" the price moves.

you're just not thinking of them in the right context. for a moment, just forget we are looking at charts of "real" markets, and assume it is just a man-made computer game (like a chess game) that runs the same cycle over and over but with infinite varieties. your opponent is the computer, and it will do everything it can to outwit you (coming back to take your money first, before going, even when you were right, etc)

back to the triangle again, you have to think about the actual transactions going on all the way through there, put yourself in the position of all the traders who are bullish and are buying as it looks like breaking out upwards, how many times did it fake out at the top, before taking their money?

all the traders who see it falling again and short, only to be whiplashed upwards and stopped out again. those violent moves downwards are SM exiting their longs, but then supporting the price in the ever-narrowing range, to ensure the previous few days traders in either direction are trapped in negative float.

try look past the colors and see the traps the game sets, and how efficiently the cycle always plays out in the end, despite infinite intraday perceived randomness.

then just play the game, learn it's traps as best you can, until you get good enough to win at least as much as, if not more than you lose ( %) because that basically is all it is.

I wonder...do others watching this thread actually see the meaningful patterns that kevsta does?

I wonder too, obviously nobody who posts does, but I think I have a lurker or two following along from time to time too, I've had a couple PM me in the past.

But I continue to root for you - honestly I want you to use the tools and skills you possess to roll your "stash" into huge profits down the road. Just because I've seen lots of others try and fail over the years does not mean you might not be onto something now.

Keep it up and keep us informed of your progress. I find it an interesting voyage into a land I do not inhabit, but may have truths I've simply neglected to see for all these years.

ok good, well as long as I'm not boring you with all the charts, I'm actually going to start a specific thread instead of filling every other thread with them, and (aim for) a higher level discussion about real world market structures anyway, I don't know enough about it yet, but I do feel I have some different insight than most do, already.

and possibly a list of cheats for my special new version of Colin McRae Rally**

**it took me 4 years to crack that without any cheats / hacks, so by comparison 18 months is pretty good going eh

edit, I missed it first time, but the highlighted part, did we finally just get to the point where I have convinced you it *might* even be possible?

I understand your skepticism, truly I do. I can barely believe that the evidence from all my investigation and testing appears to point to this being the *truth* myself. but it would make total sense of why it's so damn difficult to win though, wouldn't it? how many people can even beat a chess game?

that, and the fact that it does appear to work, make it a reasonably compelling theory worthy of deep investigation, to me.

 

[Fast Eddie B]

edit, I missed it first time, but the highlighted part, did we finally just get to the point where I have convinced you it *might* even be possible?

As an equal opportunity skeptic...

I must doubt the claim that one can profit from predicted price moves by reading charts.

I must also doubt the claim that one cannot profit from predicted price moves by reading charts.

Beyond that, you know why I take the first as my default position.

For now - until convinced otherwise.

 

[kevsta]

As an equal opportunity skeptic...

I must doubt the claim that one can profit from predicted price moves by reading charts.

I must also doubt the claim that one cannot profit from predicted price moves by reading charts.

Beyond that, you know why I take the first as my default position.

For now - until convinced otherwise.

perfect and yes understood. but an annual real account balance that steadily goes up would be evidence towards the second too wouldn't it. I'll see what I can do.

but for the record, the way you've phrased it, I cant really even argue too much with. because what I'm actually doing is attempting to analyse the smart money (marketmakers, they who have the 100% trading quarters) cycles, and waiting for them to first manipulate retail traders trying to trade from charts.

there is a subtle, but extremely important, fundamental in fact, difference.