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The "Hindenburg Omen" now statistically confirmed, and we just had another one.

Puppycow said:
End of week 5:
NYSE Composite: 9,214.18 down 1.53% (from the baseline of 9,357.08)
DJIA: 15,135.84 down 0.77% (from the baseline of 15,254.03)
S&P 500: 1,631.89 down 0.52% (from the baseline of 1,640.42)

That's up again, modestly, for the week.
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End of week 6:
NYSE Composite: 9,498.51 up 1.51% (from the baseline of 9,357.08)
DJIA: 15,464.30 up 1.38% (from the baseline of 15,254.03)
S&P 500: 1,680.19 up 2.42% (from the baseline of 1,640.42)

After another good week, all three indices are now above the baseline level again.
 
Puppycow said:
End of week 6:
NYSE Composite: 9,498.51 up 1.51% (from the baseline of 9,357.08)
DJIA: 15,464.30 up 1.38% (from the baseline of 15,254.03)
S&P 500: 1,680.19 up 2.42% (from the baseline of 1,640.42)

After another good week, all three indices are now above the baseline level again.
Click to expand...

Yeah, but the Omen ("Woooooooooooo!") only promised a 2% drop at some unspecified point in the future for an indeterminate time so I guess the least apocalyptic of the predictions did come true. Of course how you distinguish the results of the least extreme Omen from normal market fluctuations is anyone's guess.
 
This thread is giving me serious Monty Python vibes.

"Thus we know the world to be banana-shaped."
"Tell me again how goat bladders may be used to prevent earthquakes?"
 
If enough people believe it, then it might become a self-fulfilling prophesy.
 
You see the same, sad desperation in sports betting forums. People trying like hell to mold signal out of noise.

"Home underdogs when coming off a Monday Night loss to a West Coast team are 12-4-1 against the spread when the over/under is less than 42 and an uncircumcised quarterback is starting for the opponent."
 
My cat just sneezed, so we have a confirmed "Feline Respiratory Omen of Total Collapse, Crash, and Unavoidable Doom". It's more serious than The Hindenburg Omen by far; it always precedes at least a 2.1% decline in the markets within the next 12 months, and it is 100% statistically reliable. Hold on to your assets, it's going to get bumpy.
 
Puppycow said:
Marc Faber. That's another one who's always predicting the apocalypse right around the corner. When has he ever not said that the market is about to crash?
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+1. Rob't Schiller too.

Natural Born Skeptic said:
The guys who created this, and that guy who interprets the bible and predicts the end of the world should get together. It'd be a blast.
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It's no coincidence. There is genuinely something in the human psyche that enjoys a good story of doom and apocalypse. But like a good ghost story, we need to leave the suspension of disbelief out at the campfire. It's fun to exercise these primitive emotions, but has nothing to do with good decision making.

boooeee said:
You see the same, sad desperation in sports betting forums. People trying like hell to mold signal out of noise.
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I agree w/ your general position, but this isn't a signal-noise issue. We are engaged in an attempt to predict the future based on the past. This works pretty well with the inanimate parts of the universe, not so well w/ aggregate human behavior of markets.

jimbob said:
If enough people believe it, then it might become a self-fulfilling prophesy.
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When enough ppl believe in a risk, then the risk may be avoided - a self-defeating prophesy.
 
if you're only looking for 2% corrections it's very much more reliable to work based on Newton's law of "what goes up, must come down"

last week's bullish view played out fairly predictably, S&P back hovering just underneath all time highs again.

but with earnings reports starting this week, anything could happen from here

** is there a time limit on Hindenberg predictions?
 
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The Central Scrutinizer said:
:dl:
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You know I didn't expect to say this but I agree with Scrut.

Comrade Quixote said:
http://xkcd.com/1122

Predictive formulae are only useful if they work forwards, i.e. if you can predict what happens, not if you alter them after they have failed to do so so that they <i>would</i> have predicted the future.

In other words if in the linked strip someone had said "No nominee whose first name contains a K will ever loose" in <b>1804</b>, that would be a meaningful (if trivial) prediction. My saying it now is just pareidolia. Well, it would be if I ascribed a meaning to it, rather than just noting it as a coincidence.
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I agree. The history of economics is littered with retro-predictive models, like the Phillips Curve et cetera, that don't work forward to any useful extent.

Comrade Quixote said:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post_hoc_ergo_propter_hoc
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Finally I have a use for this:

picture.php


kookbreaker said:
Soooo.....hydrogen burning yet?
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Well there's some smoldering on the hull anyway.
 
the omen should probably stipulate whether new all time highs are allowed between sighting and crash too.
 
Puppycow said:
End of week 6:
NYSE Composite: 9,498.51 up 1.51% (from the baseline of 9,357.08)
DJIA: 15,464.30 up 1.38% (from the baseline of 15,254.03)
S&P 500: 1,680.19 up 2.42% (from the baseline of 1,640.42)

After another good week, all three indices are now above the baseline level again.
Click to expand...

End of week 7:
NYSE Composite: 9,618.51 up 2.79% (from the baseline of 9,357.08)
DJIA: 15,543.74 up 1.90% (from the baseline of 15,254.03)
S&P 500: 1,692.09 up 3.15% (from the baseline of 1,640.42)

All three up again for the week.
 
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