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The "Hindenburg Omen" now statistically confirmed, and we just had another one.

The Central Scrutinizer said:
Perhaps you could post links to some of these exposes. Or, explain the exact way in which it is rigged. Who are the members of "Big Finance"?



Buy gold!!111!!!!!
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I'm waaaay not on Team Buy Gold. I think the goldbugs have some sort of metal fetish. I mean, why gold? Isn't copper now more useful and valuable in a resource sort of way? But why metals at all? A long time ago here someone accused someone else of wanting a currency based on "gold, or lumps or coal, or pocket lint or whatever" and that really sums up my views of currency.

Almost all currency is and has been fiat. Resources are a different matter.

BUT. It does seem like everything is actually rigged. I'm guessing you can google search "Taibbi rigged" to get the scoop.
 
Looking at this further, it appears as though one could easily remove almost all of the factors in the Hindenburg Omen, and the "Omen" would still be just as reliable... or rather just as unreliable.

You can even pick them at random! Just put the variables on a wall, and throw darts at them, to eliminate them from the formulas... and the success of the formulas would probably NOT be impacted at all!

Am I right about this?

I could be wrong. But, it just seems like any arbitrary factors added in hindsight could just as easily be removed in "foresight", or something. I dunno.
 
Puppycow said:
Well yesterday's rout seems to be abating. The Nikkei is up, Dow and S&P futures are up.
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as we know big downmoves are always followed by little bounces. whether that turns into some sort of recovery, or continues the next day is the question, not whether you get a little bounce at the end of a big drop.
 
Puppycow said:
Well yesterday's rout seems to be abating. The Nikkei is up, Dow and S&P futures are up.
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Only on a day basis:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/st...-be-overdone-for-now-2013-06-21?siteid=yhoof2

On Thursday, the S&P 500 index SPX -2.50% dropped 40.74 points, or 2.5%, to 1,588.19, its biggest decline since November 2011. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA -2.34% ended down 353.87 points, or 2.3%, to 14,758.32. The Dow’s loss was the biggest one-day percentage decline since Nov. 2012.

Week-to-date, the S&P is looking at a 2.4% loss, while the Dow industrials are tapped to lose 2%. The Nasdaq Composite index NDU3 +0.52% is set to lose 1.7%.
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The prediction was for at least a 2% market downturn. It happened, both in daily terms and week-to-week.

The prediction came true.
 
Muldur said:
The prediction was for at least a 2% market downturn. It happened, both in daily terms and week-to-week.

The prediction came true.
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OK, granted. The prediction cleared the lowest bar you set for it.

But I still await more data. It was a fairly large move for a single day, but on a weekly basis a 2-something% loss isn't all that uncommon is it?
 
Muldur said:
Only on a day basis:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/st...-be-overdone-for-now-2013-06-21?siteid=yhoof2

The prediction was for at least a 2% market downturn. It happened, both in daily terms and week-to-week.

The prediction came true.
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with my interest in markets, from a trading and predictability POV I would like there to be something in this, but there have been 7 omens now, if they are only able to tell you that after approaching a 20% rise, there will be a 2% pullback at some point, I think we already know that?

with something as ominously named as the Hindenberg Omen, and the markets potentially poised for explosive volatility on every headline at the top of a liquidity driven buying frenzy, after 7 of them in a row, I want to see some proper crash and burn really to give this any credibility.
 
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Muldur said:
You asked for the exposes. I linked to them.

No evasion at all.

Stop lying.
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I'm not going to read a pile of idiotic books or watch YouTube videos. I don't have time.

Explain the exact way in which "the market" is rigged. Also, who are the members of "Big Finance"?
 
Maldur, look at all the money you could have made if you had invested, even if the market was rigged.

This really looks like overfitting the data, with a lucky break.

As for my comment about skin in the game. My first hurtle to listening to any economic advice, are you betting on your own advice.
 
IllegalArgument said:
Maldur, look at all the money you could have made if you had invested, even if the market was rigged.

This really looks like overfitting the data, with a lucky break.

As for my comment about skin in the game. My first hurtle to listening to any economic advice, are you betting on your own advice.
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Well said.

If the market is rigged, and you know it's rigged, why not take advantage of that? You would soon be a billionaire.

I've run into this sentiment a lot over the years. It usually comes from people who have largely failed at life, and need to find someone else to blame it on. The Jews, the blacks, the boss, the liberals, "Big Finance", etc.
 
kevsta said:
with something as ominously named as the Hindenberg Omen, and the markets potentially poised for explosive volatility on every headline at the top of a liquidity driven buying frenzy, after 7 of them in a row, I want to see some proper crash and burn really to give this any credibility.
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I can see and understand your point, but it shouldn't need to be TEOTWAWKI level devestation to get people to sit up and take notice.

If the forecast is for rain and it's sprinkling outside do you NOT take an umbrella because it's not coming down in buckets?
 
The Central Scrutinizer said:
I'm not going to read a pile of idiotic books or watch YouTube videos. I don't have time.

Explain the exact way in which "the market" is rigged. Also, who are the members of "Big Finance"?
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First of all, if you had even bothered to look at the links they are not "you tube videos", but professionally produced documentary films, including at least one Academy Award winner for Best Documentary ("Inside Job").

You asked for links. I gave them. You then ignored them and claimed "evasion". Who's the real evader, Scrut?

I think we know the answer to that.

I'll add another good one (that you'll probably ignore), showing how a major corporation (Enron) not only manipulated the stock market, but the energy markets as well, making $100s of millions off of the energy crisis in 2000-2001 by manipulating suppliers to take production off line to increase the price of electricity. This is documented by recorded tapes OF those conversations, which are played during the expose.

http://www.amazon.com/Enron-The-Smartest-Guys-Room/dp/B000C3L2IO

The film won the Independent Spirit Award for Best Documentary Feature and was nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 78th Academy Awards in 2006.
 
The Central Scrutinizer said:
I've run into this sentiment a lot over the years. It usually comes from people who have largely failed at life, and need to find someone else to blame it on. The Jews, the blacks, the boss, the liberals, "Big Finance", etc.
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I've run into this sentiment a lot over the years. It usually comes from self-righteous elitists who live to claim credit for (and the value of) the hard work of ordinary men and women and feel incredibly guilty about it deep down so they look down their noses at them and call them all sorts of names so they don't have to confront their own perfidy.
 
Puppycow said:
End of week 2:
NYSE Composite: 9,263.69 down 1% (from the baseline of 9,357.08)
DJIA: 15,070.18 down 1.21% (from the baseline of 15,254.03)
S&P 500: 1,626.73 down 0.83% (from the baseline of 1,640.42)
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End of week 3:
NYSE Composite: 9,018.55 down 3.6% (from the baseline of 9,357.08)
DJIA: 14,799.40 down 2.98% (from the baseline of 15,254.03)
S&P 500: 1,592.43 down 2.93% (from the baseline of 1,640.42)
 
The Central Scrutinizer said:
If the market is rigged, and you know it's rigged, why not take advantage of that? You would soon be a billionaire.
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Where do I go to place my bets on rigged-ness? Don't see how the mere fact of something being rigged would be game-able information.
TCS said:
I've run into this sentiment a lot over the years. It usually comes from people who have largely failed at life, and need to find someone else to blame it on. The Jews, the blacks, the boss, the liberals, "Big Finance", etc.
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I like this ad-hom, it really touches on a central flaw in human nature, I'm just not sure it belongs right here. I mean, a lot of things are/were rigged, like LIBOR for instance.

You can't just default straight to the human desire to blame the "other" for all unconscionable acts, the brush is too BROAD, man!
 
Muldur said:
I can see and understand your point, but it shouldn't need to be TEOTWAWKI level devestation to get people to sit up and take notice.

If the forecast is for rain and it's sprinkling outside do you NOT take an umbrella because it's not coming down in buckets?
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no it doesn't have to be catastrophe to be a meaningful pullback, but for example twice in 2012 the S&P pulled back 150 and 120 points (8-10% from peak to trough) during the course of normal (ie non "Omen") trading.

and the Nikkei has collapsed back to the edge of bear market territory, again no Omen (I'm aware of anyway)

all I'm saying is that markets do go up and down just in the normal course of events, after some up, comes some down, much like gravity (although slower acting at times) so if the best my Omen could predict was minimum 2% corrections after 20% up moves I'd probably give up on that.

dont get me wrong, if we get 20-30% down as Marc Faber thinks, it (The Omen) could still rescue it's spookiness.
 
Puppycow said:
Marc Faber. That's another one who's always predicting the apocalypse right around the corner. When has he ever not said that the market is about to crash?
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did you watch the interview? only asking to see if you saw his response to the Bernanke tapering question? :D we definitely see eye to eye on that.

also a 25-30% retracement is not a crash really. bare minimum 23.6% (fib) retracements from new highs or lows are a virtual certainty eventually.
 
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