Moderated Global Warming Discussion

[DC]

You make some good points.
There may be ways to "stop" climate change, but the issue is more whether or not we have reached the point that even if we took humanity and its future additional contributions completely out of the picture, have we already engaged enough natural feedbacks that the warming would continue to accelerate (albeit at a reduced rate)? As to the Asian emissions, there is a difference between a masking of some symptoms and a complete halting or removal of the underlying processes.

do we know that we trigered positive feedback loops ? or is that rather speculative yet.

 

[Trakar]

do we know that we trigered positive feedback loops ? or is that rather speculative yet.

Some have been stimulated to release, the speculative part is more in the volume (will it be bad or horrible) and the timing (within this century or not until next century). The permafrost, being the closest to true "tipping point" issue. Even a thaw in just the top few meters or so of soil over the next century would likely (by the most conservative estimates) double current atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Whether or not that is sufficient to trigger other feedback cascades,...speculative, but fat-tail concerning.

 

[macdoc]

I'd call it speculative but if you combine it with land use and deforestation it certainly looks pretty dire.

It was pretty weird seeing Moscow warmer than central Europe today. The changes in the Arctic certainly are fast moving.
But if the continents are being chilled by the di-polar pattern that has been prevailing that will help.

I don't know what impact the more open Arctic ocean is having outside of that change. Have not seen a quantitative figure for what the change in albedo means.

 

[Mikemcc]

An interesting article on IPS about food supply. New Era of Food Scarcity Echoes Collapsed Civilisations.

As indicated in the article our periods of surplus are disappearing and you periods of dearth are increasing. There are two drivers for this, population growth, and also the increase in frequency of extreme weather events such as the Russian and US droughts.

 

[macdoc]

I would tend to add over fishing to that list.

 

[r-j]

An interesting article on IPS about food supply. New Era of Food Scarcity Echoes Collapsed Civilisations.

As indicated in the article our periods of surplus are disappearing and you periods of dearth are increasing. There are two drivers for this, population growth, and also the increase in frequency of extreme weather events such as the Russian and US droughts.

There is zero evidence for any of the things claimed in that "article".

Minnesota farmers produced the largest corn crop in state history in 2012, harvesting a record 1.37 billion bushels, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said Friday in its final grain report of the season.

http://m.postbulletin.com/business/...b56-dffd-560f-8d3a-398074e72a35.html?mode=jqm

Unlike the "article" mentioned (which is advertising a book btw) the information I found is fact based.

While severe drought wracked much of the Midwest, Minnesota escaped the worst of it. Minnesota's average corn yield was 165 bushels an acre. That's shy of a record, but it far surpasses the national corn yield of 123 bushels an acre.

So during the terrible drought, they had a record crop.

USDA's Minnesota Field Office said Friday, that other crops in the state also did well in 2012. Minnesota soybean production was 301 million bushels, or 43 bushels an acre.

The state's sugar beet production was 12.3 million tons, also a state record, USDA said.

And spring wheat production was 74.7 million bushels, with an average yield of 57 bushels an acre.

Sounds like the crops did very well. Despite it being one of the worst years ever for US weather. Surely the rest of the nation must have been devestated?

Nationwide, the final report on the 2012 growing season showed farmers harvested 10.78 billion bushels of corn, less than three-fourths of what the agency predicted last spring.

Uh oh. That must have destroyed the economy.

While the report covers many other crops, much of the attention has been on corn, which is widely used as an ingredient in many foods, provides feed for livestock and is mixed with gasoline as ethanol. The crop also was the hardest hit by the drought that settled in just as the plants were maturing.

Because demand remained strong and corn prices remained high — above $7 a bushel for much of the summer and fall — the 2012 crop was the most valuable ever produced, with a value of around $85 billion, said Chad Hart, an agriculture economist with Iowa State University.

Oh well, somehow this is going to be sold as bad news. By somebody trying to sell a book.

The harvest also was the eighth largest in U.S. history, a reflection of a big increase in recent years in the number of acres planted and crop technology that has improved plants' ability to withstand drought.

Oh well. Looks like the doomsayers will have to find something else to scare you about. Because if you check the facts, worldwide, 2012 was the best year in history for crops. more food was grown and produced than any other year in history.

The US had the eight largest harvest, in the midst of a very bad drought and heat wave.

I guess people who actually grow food probably know more about it than some author trying to sell his book, which sound just like every book for the last forty years, claiming the end is near. I remain skeptical.

 

[Trakar]

There is zero evidence for any of the things claimed in that "article".

http://m.postbulletin.com/business/...b56-dffd-560f-8d3a-398074e72a35.html?mode=jqm

Carefully selected "facts" disingenuously applied from a far northern state that did not experience the same weather conditions, does not compellingly support your assertions, with regards to national conditions in the most recent harvest year nor in projections for future national and global harvest years.

US corn yeilds - "Ending stocks for 2012/13 were projected in the November 9 WASDE report at 647 million bushels, the lowest since 1995/96..."

US Soybeans - "ending stocks from the 2012 harvest are still forecast to be tight at 140 million bushels, equal to 4.6 percent of use and the lowest level of carryover stocks since 2003/04..."

http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/in-the-news/us-drought-2012-farm-and-food-impacts.aspx

 

[macdoc]

Also due to superb growing conditions early in the season it was on track to be the largest crop ever.
Did not work out and BTW 65 % of the US remains in drought conditions tho it is easing off now.

Perhaps you can square your everything is rosy stance with this

U.S. Crop-Insurance Claims Rise to Record After 2012 Drought
By Jeff Wilson - Jan 16, 2013 3:07 AM ET

The worst U.S. drought since the 1930s led to record payouts on crop-insurance claims, with farmers collecting $11.581 billion as of yesterday for damage in 2012, government data show.
Payments are up 6.8 percent from 2011, when claims reached the previous record of $10.843 billion, according to a Risk Management Agency report published today on the U.S. Department of Agriculture website. In 2010, the total was $4.251 billion.
Last year’s Midwest drought sent corn and soybean prices surging to records as output fell, while dry fields across the Great Plains left winter-wheat conditions in November at their worst since at least 1985, when the USDA began collecting the data.

from that leftie source

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...ims-rise-to-record-after-2012-drought-2-.html

 

[r-j]

Also due to superb growing conditions early in the season it was on track to be the largest crop ever.
Did not work out and BTW 65 % of the US remains in drought conditions tho it is easing off now.

Crops are a funny thing. If everybody gets a record harvest, the price goes down. It was predicted corn would be 4 dollars a bushel early on, but due to the shortfall (from what was predicted) , the price was up to 8 dollars a bushel, and stayed at 7 and a half, making it the best year ever for corn farming. If you grew corn. (Soy also was very good)

The consumer thinks a glut is a good thing, but the market will tell you, it's not good to grow too much food, because you end up going broke.

 

[a_unique_person]

Crops are a funny thing. If everybody gets a record harvest, the price goes down. It was predicted corn would be 4 dollars a bushel early on, but due to the shortfall (from what was predicted) , the price was up to 8 dollars a bushel, and stayed at 7 and a half, making it the best year ever for corn farming. If you grew corn. (Soy also was very good)

The consumer thinks a glut is a good thing, but the market will tell you, it's not good to grow too much food, because you end up going broke.

I don't know what that has to do with anything. We aren't talking about how corn markets work.

 

[r-j]

You seem to be talking about catastrophic threats to the food supply, from some author's promotional piece, based on no evidence. Then trying to blame it on global warming. Meanwhile, the world had it's best year ever (2012) for food production.

Does anyone who matters care what some nobody says in a book? Once again predicting "the end of the world" from global warming. That is so last century.

 

[DC]

You seem to be talking about catastrophic threats to the food supply, from some author's promotional piece, based on no evidence. Then trying to blame it on global warming. Meanwhile, the world had it's best year ever (2012) for food production.

Does anyone who matters care what some nobody says in a book? Once again predicting "the end of the world" from global warming. That is so last century.

 

[Trakar]

I don't know what that has to do with anything. We aren't talking about how corn markets work.

Perhaps you should convey that information to r-j, who seems to think that since record profits were made by one state who did not suffer as badly in the weather extremis of the last harvest cycle, and who took advantage of market induced price hikes due to the damage of crops in most other states to earn record profits off the crops it brought to market, that there was no problem or substantive impact of weather upon the nation's agricultural production and harvest in the 2012 cycle.

 

[r-j]

Nobody said the weather had no impact, which is clear from reading the fact based article I provided, for your education. Straw man is useless.

The eight best harvest, despite a terrible year for rain, and really bad heat. It shows how people who actually produce something ignore authors who try to sell books (and themselves it seems) by scaring weak minds.

The worst economic losses in US history have been from record cold, not record heat. It seems some people think a part of the US cornbelt is the only place that matters.

Look at the facts instead of fictions.

Like this

Chinese farmers are reaping a third record corn harvest even after a typhoon wiped out some of the crop, easing demand for imports at a time when the U.S. drought is driving sales from the biggest exporter to a four-decade low.
The harvest rose 3.6 percent to 199.74 million metric tons, according to a survey of farmers in China’s seven biggest producing provinces by Geneva-based SGS SA (SGSN) for Bloomberg. The country’s stockpiles last month were at a nine-year high, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture expects a 64 percent drop in imports. The agency will raise its estimate for U.S. reserves by 2.4 percent when it reports Nov. 9, the average of 29 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg shows.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...-record-chinese-corn-harvest-commodities.html

Then you won't succumb to irrational fears from some nobody, who offers no facts, just opinions.

 

[macdoc]

r-j
Let's see what Wall Street Journal has to say

USINESSSeptember 4, 2012, 12:20 p.m. ET
U.N. Calls for Measures to Avert a Food Crisis

By MICHAEL HADDON and CHRISTOPHER EMSDEN

LONDON—Urgent action is needed to ensure rising world food prices don't turn into a catastrophe, the United Nations said Tuesday, but it cautioned that panic buying and export restrictions aren't the solution.

Summer droughts have scorched crops across the globe, causing sharp increases in the price of corn, wheat and soybeans, and raising fears of a repeat of the 2007-08 world food crisis. Such problems could be prevented by swift, coordinated international action, the Food and Agriculture Organization, World Food Program and International Fund for Agricultural Development said.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444301704577631081721558666.html

and hundreds of other articles outlining the issue = this is reasonably comprehensive
snip

Although there is still – theoretically – enough food for everyone to eat, global supplies have fallen this year by 2.6% with grains such as wheat declining 5.2% and only rice holding level, says the UN.

snip

prices have risen between 10% and 25% this year after droughts and heatwaves in Ukraine and Australia as well as the US and other food growing centres. The UN says prices are now close to the crisis levels of 2008. Meat and dairy prices are likely to surge in the new year as farmers find it expensive to feed cattle and poultry. Brown says: "Those who live in the United States, where 9% of income goes for food, are insulated from these price shifts.

Last week, the World Bank said world food prices jumped 10% in July, as U.S. corn and soybean production suffered in a record-breaking drought. Similar conditions in Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan have taken a toll on wheat production.

Now food prices are expected to remain elevated for the foreseeable future "as a consequence of increasing supply uncertainties," the World Bank said. Its forecasters had been expecting a calm year for global food prices in 2012 until the effects of the droughts in the U.S. and Eastern Europe kicked in this summer.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/global-development/2012/oct/14/food-climate-change-population-water

It's you that has no evidence for down playing the severity of the situation globally

 

[r-j]

As for food production being effected by "extreme weather events", the new cry of the prophets of doom, the facts don't support there claims. They also, not having a clue about agriculture, don't realize how people adapt and continue to feed the world, despite the weather. Same as it always has been.

The people these days moaning and wringing their hands over the weather, they just don't have enough experience to appreciate the weather has always been the way it is. The popular opinion seems to be the weather is worse these days, which is exactly what people were saying 40 years ago. And 70 years ago. And a hundred years ago. And so on, and so forth.

 

[r-j]

It's you that has no evidence for down playing the severity of the situation globally

It was a record year globally for food production. Because so much of the corn goes to feeding livestock, meat prices fall as slaughter is cheaper than feed. So meat prices drop, and the crops are just fine for feeding people. 90% of the grain in the US goes to feeding animals, not people.

Even of there was a huge crop failure, it just means more animals will be killed, and the grain will go to feeding people rather than pigs and cows and chickens and all. If more people would simply eat grains rather than cows/pigs/chickens, it would help reduce the CO2 output by a huge amount. Methane as well.

 

[DC]

As for food production being effected by "extreme weather events", the new cry of the prophets of doom, the facts don't support there claims. They also, not having a clue about agriculture, don't realize how people adapt and continue to feed the world, despite the weather. Same as it always has been.

The people these days moaning and wringing their hands over the weather, they just don't have enough experience to appreciate the weather has always been the way it is. The popular opinion seems to be the weather is worse these days, which is exactly what people were saying 40 years ago. And 70 years ago. And a hundred years ago. And so on, and so forth.

lol what laughable claims. prophets of doom......

 

[macdoc]

The people these days moaning and wringing their hands over the weather, they just don't have enough experience to appreciate the weather has always been the way it is. The popular opinion seems to be the weather is worse these days, which is exactly what people were saying 40 years ago. And 70 years ago. And a hundred years ago. And so on, and so forth.

wrong....humanity developed in a very mild period of stability which allowed predictable results within reason.
That is over in many of the bread baskets of the planet. You are just wishful thinking if you think it's like the "good old days".

There are and will continue to be wider ranges of extremes. Yes there were say hot spells...but there is a huge difference to crops when the the tolerable 6 day hot spell that crops can survive becomes the two week version that crops cannot.
And that stretch instead of happening one in a hundred years happens one in 3.

The physics are very clear....not so much on drought .....but on heat and weather extremes.
Intensity is up and will continue to rise. Duration of heat events lengthen.

When you combine that with mining aquifers and population growth you have a serious issue. The world is facing it right now.

 

[lukefreeman]

Fingers in ears saying "I can't hear you!"

It goes something like this: fingers in ears saying "I can't hear you!"
facebook.com/101728306584541/posts/391481104282004

Another bunch of climate deniers screaming "SHOW ME THE EVIDENCE" and then you do, then they scream "SHOW ME THE EVIDENCE".



It's like creationists when you find a fossil and create two new gaps in the fossil record.

Sigh.