How can peace in Syria be achieved?

[HoverBoarder]

Lol. You're aware that Saudi propaganda toy Al-Arabiya celebrates the immediate fall of Assad and the victory of their Allahu Akbar hordes and independent press daily, since around 20 months, right?

Well, if it makes you feel better...

Yeah, I actually thought about what you would say about citing an Al-Arabiya article, as I figured you would be the first to point it out.

But I decided to post it anyways since the subject is pretty noncontroversial.


You can read pretty much the same story from the AFP

Syrian activists prosper in peaceful town

or on France 24

That cities like Minbej that are far enough from the regime bombings can move on to more normal lives is pretty standard.

 

[cromleckderennes]

How can peace in Syria be achieved?

Probably by going back to the situation they had before the French and the British drew their borders for them.

Of course you can't unscramble an egg hence

NO PEACE

That answer your question?

Cue Borderline by Joni Mitchel
l
YOUTUBE watch?v=HoGXPPzWWTs

 

[HoverBoarder]

How can peace in Syria be achieved?

Probably by going back to the situation they had before the French and the British drew their borders for them.

Of course you can't unscramble an egg hence

NO PEACE

That answer your question?

Cue Borderline by Joni Mitchel
l
YOUTUBE watch?v=HoGXPPzWWTs

Hello Crom, thank you for your post.

The borders that the French and British drew up for the Syrians did not bring peace, so I doubt that would be the solution.

However, your idea that there can be no peace is interesting.

I however think that there will be a conflict in Syria for awhile, starting with the removal of Assad, but eventually there will have to be some kind of resolution.

Eventually there will be peace, it is just a question of when and what it will look like.

 

[HoverBoarder]

New Brahimi plan for Syria as posted by Caustic:

Brahimi,personally, might be okay, not sure. But he makes a fair amount of sense in his assessment just delivered - a military conclusion by either side is unacceptable, a peacekeeping force, a big one, will likely be needed, and Assad will almost surely have to step down.
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Mi...return-to-assads-old-syria.ashx#axzz2DiFvEEs2


Core area where I can tell he's out-of-step with the Western half of the UNSC:

Causing that is exactly the intent of sanctions, diplomat expulsions, bombing where applicable, encouraging defections, arming rebels, calling regime change inevitable, etc. State institutions are destroyed as they have no right to govern, police, or anything but surrender or die. See for example Libya.

Aside from me and CE, no discussion of the cluster/bullet bombing that shocked us again with dead kids. No words either way about this heinous car bombing. Obama's US is willing to condemn a positive vote on Palestine, but not this. No takers yet to discuss that.

Okay, cool. It's understandable. The article mentions it:

The Russians at least give valid reasons. Like in the Houla massacre, they were clear that rebels who conquered the town were the ones who then slaughtered the families. Why denounce the government for that? The rationale for the consistent US decision to turn a blind eye to Al Qaeda terrorism against the sovereign government of Syria? Unstated as far as I know.

How about Brahimi? Is his solution too little too late? Must the rebels now be crushed into position to exercise that legitimacy the Europeans bestowed them with? Or should they have to "swallow their pride" a little, just like the government, and follow some middle path? Will the West even allow a half-ass solution like that, or must the overthrow be complete?

 

[Darth Rotor]

HB, a few days ago a Syrian military aircraft was downed by what is believed to be either an SA-16 or SA-18 hand held anti aircraft missile (typically referred to as a MANPAD) which it is believed came from one of the government arsenals in one of the bases you mentioned having fallen. I will try to find the link to the video I saw on a different forum.

While this does a lot for the insurgent factions being able to counter the government's air advantage, it opens a worry on a global scale: how many of those class of weapons will be sold, for cash most likely, to various folks who want one for their own reasons?

Anyone who flies in a commercial aircraft may be concerned if not all of those missiles are accounted for.

 

[HoverBoarder]

HB, a few days ago a Syrian military aircraft was downed by what is believed to be either an SA-16 or SA-18 hand held anti aircraft missile (typically referred to as a MANPAD) which it is believed came from one of the government arsenals in one of the bases you mentioned having fallen. I will try to find the link to the video I saw on a different forum.

While this does a lot for the insurgent factions being able to counter the government's air advantage, it opens a worry on a global scale: how many of those class of weapons will be sold, for cash most likely, to various folks who want one for their own reasons?

Anyone who flies in a commercial aircraft may be concerned if not all of those missiles are accounted for.

I am worried about that.

There have been a number of captured SA-16/SA-18 and SA-24 anti-air launchers and missiles captured in regime base captures in Syria.

Video Shows Captured SA-16 And SA-24 Surface To Air Missiles


Cache of SA-24 launchers

It is likely that some of these launchers will be smuggled into neighboring countries. And while it is less likely that they would make their way to Europe or the US, they are still a threat.


They will likely add to the accelerating fall of the Assad regime bases and air power though.

One of the best ways to reduce the threat of these and other weapons (including chemical), is to support a responsible transition government.

 

[Darth Rotor]

I am worried about that.

There have been a number of captured SA-16/SA-18 and SA-24 anti-air launchers and missiles captured in regime base captures in Syria.

Video Shows Captured SA-16 And SA-24 Surface To Air Missiles


Cache of SA-24 launchers

It is likely that some of these launchers will be smuggled into neighboring countries. And while it is less likely that they would make their way to Europe or the US, they are still a threat.


They will likely add to the accelerating fall of the Assad regime bases and air power though.

One of the best ways to reduce the threat of these and other weapons (including chemical), is to support a responsible transition government.

The window of opportunity to spread these weapons remains well open. Current prevention relies on the self interest of the new possessors being more "hold onto them, we need them" than "we can get good money for these" and as you know, revolutions need money to keep going .

The presumption that a "transition government" will be as organized or in control of assets such as these, as the Assad government was up until recently, is self delusion. It takes time and effort to get organized, time during which the window remains open for transfers, licit and illicit.

 

[Darth Rotor]

FWIW:

http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way...aim-they-shot-down-fighter-jet-with-a-missile

Link to a story about the jet being downed by a hand held SAM.

there was a report a few weeks previous about about a helicopter being downed by ground fire. After seeing the brief video snip, I guesses that it was a hand held SAM, rather than AAA or small arms fire. However, a few seconds of video may not be enough info to go on.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=LnaPdqQj-U4

The helicopter seems to already be out of control and falling from considerable altitude ... hence, my belief that it was a hand held SAM that first hit it. There had been a previous crash near Damascus, where a helicopter was up around 10 or 12 thousand feet, and ran into an Airbus airliner. I am not sure if the explosion at the end was the fuel going up, or perhaps a load of ammo on board going up.

Why flying so high? To avoid ground fire, I think. MANPADS can reach that high. Depends on the engagement geometry and the weapon and the range etcetera.

DR

 

[HoverBoarder]

FWIW:

http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way...aim-they-shot-down-fighter-jet-with-a-missile

Link to a story about the jet being downed by a hand held SAM.

there was a report a few weeks previous about about a helicopter being downed by ground fire. After seeing the brief video snip, I guesses that it was a hand held SAM, rather than AAA or small arms fire. However, a few seconds of video may not be enough info to go on.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=LnaPdqQj-U4

The helicopter seems to already be out of control and falling from considerable altitude ... hence, my belief that it was a hand held SAM that first hit it. There had been a previous crash near Damascus, where a helicopter was up around 10 or 12 thousand feet, and ran into an Airbus airliner. I am not sure if the explosion at the end was the fuel going up, or perhaps a load of ammo on board going up.

Why flying so high? To avoid ground fire, I think. MANPADS can reach that high. Depends on the engagement geometry and the weapon and the range etcetera.

DR

Probably one of the SAMS in this case.

Who knows what they would do if Assad uses chemical weapons though.


Syria loads chemical weapons into bombs; military awaits Assad's order

The Syrian military is prepared to use chemical weapons against its own people and is awaiting final orders from President Bashar Assad, U.S. officials told NBC News on Wednesday.

The military has loaded the precursor chemicals for sarin, a deadly nerve gas, into aerial bombs that could be dropped onto the Syrian people from dozens of fighter-bombers, the officials said.

As recently as Tuesday, officials had said there was as yet no evidence that the process of mixing the "precursor" chemicals had begun. But Wednesday, they said their worst fears had been confirmed: The nerve agents were locked and loaded inside the bombs.

Sarin is an extraordinarily lethal agent. Iraqi President Saddam Hussein's forces killed 5,000 Kurds with a single sarin attack on Halabja in 1988.

 

[Darth Rotor]

If those reports are true, then the plot sickens.

How fast can a NATO no fly zone be put in?

Probably not fast enough to prevent a mess and potential tragedy.

But will Russia go along with that?

 

[trustbutverify]

If the reports are correct, the activity was probably intended to be detected in the hopes of producing leverage for the chinless wonder. But, as I noted a while back, use of these horrific weapons is almost certainly in the Assad playbook. These materials should have been removed or destroyed months ago.

 

[Virus]

Probably by going back to the situation they had before the French and the British drew their borders for them.

You want to bring back the Ottoman Empire?

 

[trustbutverify]

If those reports are true, then the plot sickens.
How fast can a NATO no fly zone be put in?

Probably not fast enough to prevent a mess and potential tragedy.

But will Russia go along with that?

Nice.

 

[HoverBoarder]

If those reports are true, then the plot sickens.

How fast can a NATO no fly zone be put in?

Probably not fast enough to prevent a mess and potential tragedy.

But will Russia go along with that?

Even if there was a no fly zone, you can't really be assured that the chemicals would be destroyed.

Not to mention that there is no real NATO support for a no fly zone, much less troops on the ground.

The real question is whether Assad would use the weapons. With 40,000 dead, it's not as if Assad would be shy about mass murdering thousands of Syrians, but he knows the consequences of using them.

Since they are already mixed, they have around an estimated 100 days to use them or lose them. The US developed shells during the cold war that would mix the two chemicals for Sarin gas, but Saddam and Syria never got that far. Saddam used to mix their chemicals right before using them. Syrian Bombs Are Now Filled With Chemicals — And Could Be Up for Grabs


The best way for dealing with this problem is promoting a responsible transition government.

 

[Darth Rotor]

If the reports are correct, the activity was probably intended to be detected in the hopes of producing leverage for the chinless wonder. But, as I noted a while back, use of these horrific weapons is almost certainly in the Assad playbook. These materials should have been removed or destroyed months ago.

Destroyed by whom? How?

Even if there was a no fly zone, you can't really be assured that the chemicals would be destroyed.

Agreed.

Not to mention that there is no real NATO support for a no fly zone, much less troops on the ground.

Also agreed, at this point. They may wait "until it happens" at which point it is horse, barn door ...

The real question is whether Assad would use the weapons. With 40,000 dead, it's not as if Assad would be shy about mass murdering thousands of Syrians, but he knows the consequences of using them.

As I suggested earlier, maybe in another thread, if he gets into the "in the bunker with Eva" situation, then he might just take as many of his opponents down with him as he can. Chem weapons on unprepared troops and civilians would certainly do that.

Since they are already mixed, they have around an estimated 100 days to use them or lose them.

Indeed, there is a shelf life issue.

The US developed shells during the cold war that would mix the two chemicals for Sarin gas, but Saddam and Syria never got that far.

How do you or anyone else know that?

The best way for dealing with this problem is promoting a responsible transition government.

As I noted earlier in our discussion, your optimism I do not share. This problem, the weapons, can only be dealt with by getting in contact with whomever has control of them, and getting them defused/disarmed, etcetera. Assad isn't going anywhere while he has that leverage at his disposal, eh?

He needs a deal that will induce him to stand down.

You have one? Your Nobel Peace Prize is in the mail if you do, and it works.

Alternatively, he needs a bullet to the head from a sniper ... or one of Rumsfeld's infamous "decapitation strikes" that worked so well in Iraq.

 

[HoverBoarder]

Also agreed, at this point. They may wait "until it happens" at which point it is horse, barn door ...

As I suggested earlier, maybe in another thread, if he gets into the "in the bunker with Eva" situation, then he might just take as many of his opponents down with him as he can. Chem weapons on unprepared troops and civilians would certainly do that.

Yeah, I refer to it as desperate times desperate measures component, but whatever Assad does, he knows full well what happened to Gaddafi and Saddam.

He has said that he wants to go down fighting and die in Syria, but he has been sending people to look for asylum options.

US aware of Assad asylum offers

Indeed, there is a shelf life issue.

It makes it more difficult for Al-Qaeda to capture, maintain, and use the chemical weapons, but it doesn't make it impossible.

If they did get the pre loaded shells, you know the first place they would use them against; Israel.

Which would bring in Israel to the fight, which would bring in Lebanon and possibly Egypt, NATO would have no choice, and who knows who else would join in, Jordan, Iran...

The ME has been one major attack on Israel away from WWIII, and Al-Qaeda getting their hands on Syria's chemical weapons is a pretty clear way for that to happen.


As for Assad using the weapons on his own people, he has been mass slaughtering people for over a year, over 40,000 dead, and the most that has happened in return is "outraged" statement from the US Sec of State and France, but they're pretty much on their own as usual.

How do you or anyone else know that?

It's just what is reported as part of NATO tech, and since both Iraq and Syria mix their chemicals on the ground, it's tech that they don't have:

WIKI: Chemical warfare

Most chemical weapons are assigned a one- to three-letter "NATO weapon designation" in addition to, or in place of, a common name. Binary munitions, in which precursors for chemical warfare agents are automatically mixed in shell to produce the agent just prior to its use, are indicated by a "-2" following the agent's designation (for example, GB-2 and VX-2).

As I noted earlier in our discussion, your optimism I do not share. This problem, the weapons, can only be dealt with by getting in contact with whomever has control of them, and getting them defused/disarmed, etcetera. Assad isn't going anywhere while he has that leverage at his disposal, eh?

He needs a deal that will induce him to stand down.

You have one? Your Nobel Peace Prize is in the mail if you do, and it works.

Alternatively, he needs a bullet to the head from a sniper ... or one of Rumsfeld's infamous "decapitation strikes" that worked so well in Iraq.

Assasinating Assad by anyone but the FSA could cause Syria to explode. What really is needed is to appeal to the people that support Assad.

Russia, Christians, Alawites.

They just need a way out. The sollution is actually pretty simple, the problem is getting past the emotions of pride and fear to get there.

Russia joins U.S., U.N. envoys in vow to seek ‘creative’ solution on Syria

 

[Darth Rotor]

The solution is actually pretty simple, the problem is getting past the emotions of pride and fear to get there.

Uh, that isn't simple.

Thanks for the reply, I am praying that the parties involved can come up with something. This could get ugly, fast, if the wrong domino tips over.

 

[HoverBoarder]

Uh, that isn't simple.

Thanks for the reply, I am praying that the parties involved can come up with something. This could get ugly, fast, if the wrong domino tips over.

Yeah, good point.

Although it basically comes down to ensuring protection for minorities, and convincing Russia to get over themselves.

There's a lot at stake in finding some solution. Clinton's talks with Lavrov could prove very important.

 

[trustbutverify]

Destroyed by whom? How?

Destroyed meaning disposed of, neutralized chemically. Not targeted for attack.

Back a few months ago, when the regime supposedly moved its stockpile into one heavily secured location, there might have been a chance for Putin to condition continued support on enforced disposal or removal of all chemical and biological agents. He could have presented it as a safety measure to insure the material wouldn't end up in radical Islamist hands.

 

[Darth Rotor]

Destroyed meaning disposed of, neutralized chemically. Not targeted for attack.

Back a few months ago, when the regime supposedly moved its stockpile into one heavily secured location, there might have been a chance for Putin to condition continued support on enforced disposal or removal of all chemical and biological agents. He could have presented it as a safety measure to insure the material wouldn't end up in radical Islamist hands.

Thanks.

What Putin might or might not do ... well, that's some fun ground to try and cover.