How can peace in Syria be achieved?

[HoverBoarder]

If necessary, losing this particular client would be a bitter pill to swallow for Putin's regime, especially from a status perspective. However, it will be way, way worse losing Assad after having commited Russian military prestige to his survival (I'm not refering to direct Russian intervention here). Looking at how the USG handled losing its client in Egypt, the intelligent move is to start to consider folding rather than chasing a lost pot.

They just need a way out where they don't have to look like they are actually folding. Not so much an easy task, especially when RT and other state controlled media have put so much stock into propping up the Assad dictatorship that it is going to take some pretty major spin for them to start to support a peace process instead.

In RT's last interview with Assad, they were gushing and falling over themself in claiming how great and wonderful Assad was. They're going to have a hard time admitting that while he was super great, he was also a brutal dictator who was torturing, executing, bombing, shelling, and killing tens of thousands of his own people.

 

[HoverBoarder]

Not bad, but it would limit their effectiveness if the communication was compromised in some way, such as firing from within a building.

You could have a delay in the satelite authorization. Say by a few days, or even a week.

That way you would still have location and time control over the use of the weapon, but they could arm it before getting into cover to use it.

There are many things that could be done to help the rebels significantly. Now that Syrian opposition is united and getting recognition, giving them aid requires no authorisation whatsoever. I imagine that a few manpads alone - say a dozen - would already change the dynamics significantly.

McHrozni

Recognition is essential, but so are arms.

France seems ready to supply them with arms, and I agree that a dozen to three dozen manpads could make a significant difference, and help end the war much quicker.

 

[HoverBoarder]

Not bad, but it would limit their effectiveness if the communication was compromised in some way, such as firing from within a building.

Another reason to have a time delay in authorization, is that you don't want to have forces working on arming the device in the middle of a battle.

A few days, or even a week authorization could allow the weapons to be usable, but more in control.


This of course would only be necessary for anti-air weapons. Other light weapons could be started to be delivered immediately as more and more countries recognize the new Syrian government, and allow arms to be shipped to them.

 

[HoverBoarder]

Syria gets closer and closer to a resolution with every new country that recognizes the opposition government.


Syria conflict: Opposition in London talks with UK

Mr Hague said: "I will be meeting some of the figures, some of the leaders of the new opposition coalition, and we will want to discuss with them their way forward, the need for them of course to win over the middle ground of opinion in Syria, to work effectively together, to be inclusive, to respect human rights and to have a clear plan for political transition in Syria.

"Our work with the opposition is a high priority."

The UK is hinting at greater practical and political support for the Syrian opposition, possibly matching France by officially recognising the new coalition as in effect Syria's government-in-waiting.

The British strategy in regard to Syria is likely to be announced early next week.

 

[McHrozni]

You could have a delay in the satelite authorization. Say by a few days, or even a week.

That way you would still have location and time control over the use of the weapon, but they could arm it before getting into cover to use it.

That's good, very good in fact

Recognition is essential, but so are arms.

France seems ready to supply them with arms, and I agree that a dozen to three dozen manpads could make a significant difference, and help end the war much quicker.

I'm sure French weapons will come within weeks. Moving from complete air supremacy to being challenged even if only by manpads is an enormous differance. Helicopters in particular are a very effective COIN aircraft, and most vurneable. Assad is short on pilots, if you kill a few the rest will be that more likely to defect, degrading his operational capability further.

This of course would only be necessary for anti-air weapons. Other light weapons could be started to be delivered immediately as more and more countries recognize the new Syrian government, and allow arms to be shipped to them.

Yes, although I suspect light weapons aren't that critical for the rebels. I imagine they have enough, or nearly enough anyway, and if not giving them a few thousand assault rifles or somesuch, plus ammunition won't create a major new terrorist hazard. They lack heavy indirect weaponry (such as mortars), anti-tank weapons and anti-air weapons. These are all much more problematic.

McHrozni

 

[HoverBoarder]

That's good, very good in fact

It's a fun idea, but one that would probably not be ready for this conflict. Even though a functional prototype could probably be ready in 2 months or so.

There will unfortunately probably be more conflicts like this that could use its development though.

I'm sure French weapons will come within weeks. Moving from complete air supremacy to being challenged even if only by manpads is an enormous differance. Helicopters in particular are a very effective COIN aircraft, and most vurneable. Assad is short on pilots, if you kill a few the rest will be that more likely to defect, degrading his operational capability further.

France is pretty eager to bring an end to the conflict, but they are not going to take bypassing the arms embargo lightly.

They may be waiting for Britain to come to the same conclussion before sending weapons.

Hague holds talks with Syrian rebels as UK and France prepare to tear up arms embargo to send weapons to defeat Assad

Britain today moved a step closer to recognising Syrian rebels as the legitimate government of the country, as William Hague refused to rule out offering arms to help overthrow dictator Bashar al Assad.

The Foreign Secretary held talks with opposition leaders in London today, and hailed them as a 'credible, political alternative'.

He said he hoped the UK would be able 'at an early stage to recognise them as the sole legitimate representative of the Syrian people'.

Yes, although I suspect light weapons aren't that critical for the rebels. I imagine they have enough, or nearly enough anyway, and if not giving them a few thousand assault rifles or somesuch, plus ammunition won't create a major new terrorist hazard. They lack heavy indirect weaponry (such as mortars), anti-tank weapons and anti-air weapons. These are all much more problematic.

McHrozni

I really wouldn't discount the importance of light arm weapons.

When you have conservative Islam groups in Saudi Arabia being the main provider of money and arms, while the US sends radios, it definitely tips the balance of power.

Providing arms for the more moderate groups fighting Assad could make a major difference in the ease of transition once Assad is gone.

Syria crisis: Discord grows between Islamist and secular rebels

"There are various FSA brigades in Douma and most of the time they don't coordinate with each other," Um Ahmad said. "The one that is most powerful and more organised is Liwaa al-Islam. They are the ones with the biggest funding and more weapons".

Liwaa al-Islam is a conservative group applying Islamic Sharia. And this is what many in Syria - including many in the the opposition - do not want to see.

"They have set up a Sharia court and they prosecute whoever they suspect as an agent of the regime or amongst the security themselves. In most cases they are killed," Um Ahmad said.

Liwaa al-Islam is getting most of its funding from Saudi Arabia, mostly from Syrians living in the kingdom.

They are also reported to have weapons which they have taken from regime forces. Abdulwahed, who is close to the group, recently joined the FSA after his home was destroyed by government shelling. "We have got nothing else to lose, we have to fight and we only have hope in God to help us topple this regime."

When asked about Islamic law being implemented, he did not see a problem in that. "They now have judges who are looking into each case and they are not killing the captured anymore, but referring them to the Sharia court".

But there are growing concerns within opposition groups about the potential spread of Sunni extremism in a country with a diverse religious make up.

"The rebels who refuse to hold the al-Qaeda flag and don't have an extremist ideology are poorly funded," Um Ahmad said.

"I am a Salafi by belief but I don't have the extremist ideology that's being imposed on the rebels by the Saudis. I fear these Islamist are going to prevail with their own extremist ideology in Syria."

...

"Those men with the FSA who refuse to follow the radical Islamist ideology are poorly armed," the secular opposition activist told me. "Sometimes they can't even find enough money to feed themselves."

 

[trustbutverify]

Syria crisis: Discord grows between Islamist and secular rebels

As I commented earlier, improved Command structure and anti-aircraft capabilities are the keys to an authentic rebel offensive. An efficient chain of command which aims to marginalize Islamist participation is vital.

There's been a dramatic improvement in rebel effectiveness with each additional regime aircraft brought down. Even with light arms, a halfway decent ground to air capability will turn many battles around.

 

[De_Bunk]

DarthRotor...

Mark, what DeBunk posted wasn't bigoted. It was, however, dripping with sarcasm.

I should remember sometimes that not all people read things the same way..

Having said that, I was born in TN and have a Confederate flag sticker on my car...

I wish i was in the land of cotton...(Well, not really..It's too hot and my cousins shoot dinnerplates instead of washing them)

DB

 

[Darth Rotor]

Tell the tens of thousands of people dying in Syria that life is hard.

I don't need to tell them, they already know. You, on the other hand, I am not so sure about.

 

[Darth Rotor]

As I commented earlier, improved Command structure and anti-aircraft capabilities are the keys to an authentic rebel offensive. An efficient chain of command which aims to marginalize Islamist participation is vital.

There's been a dramatic improvement in rebel effectiveness with each additional regime aircraft brought down. Even with light arms, a halfway decent ground to air capability will turn many battles around.

I don't think the US will be providing Stingers any time soon, as was done in Afghanistan, but I wonder if any US-armed allies may be slipping a few Stingers across the border ... could be interesting, depending.

 

[HoverBoarder]

I don't need to tell them, they already know. You, on the other hand, I am not so sure about.

No, I definitely know that tens of thousands of people have died in Syria, and that their struggle to free themselves from brutal dictator rule has cost them dearly in lost lives and homes.

 

[HoverBoarder]

New recognition from Britain, and denouncments from some Allepo Islamic hardliners continues to shape the real upcomming conflict.

Syria conflict: UK recognises opposition, says William Hague

He told MPs the National Coalition of the Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces was the "sole legitimate representative" of the Syrian people.

He said they were now a "credible" alternative to the Assad government.

In the absence of a diplomatic solution, he told MPs the UK would not rule out any action - subject to international law - to save lives.

The Assad removal as dictator of Syria has for a long time been a foregone conclusion, but the makeup of the new Syria is now what is largely in play as the last parts of the Assad brutal regime fall more rapidly.

A number of major weapon cache seizures by the rebels in captured military bases across the country have dramatically changed the power balance in the country, and the fall of regime forces has been accelerating very fast.

 

[Darth Rotor]

HB, the developments there continue apace, despite the media mostly giving us the Israel and Gaza show.

A number of major weapon cache seizures by the rebels in captured military bases across the country have dramatically changed the power balance in the country, and the fall of regime forces has been accelerating very fast.

Can you provide a bit more than platitudes and vague pronouncements of good news? Got some meat?

What you offer is a bit thin on substance, but there may be more and you just haven't shared it with us yet.

 

[HoverBoarder]

HB, the developments there continue apace, despite the media mostly giving us the Israel and Gaza show.


Can you provide a bit more than platitudes and vague pronouncements of good news? Got some meat?

What you offer is a bit thin on substance, but there may be more and you just haven't shared it with us yet.

Sure, a few major shifts have been a number of regime bases that have fallen to the FSA. Including the base of the 46th Regiment near Aleppo which was very important for resupply of the forces there, and provided one of the largest ammo and weapon seizures in the war.

AP Exclusive: Syrian rebels seize base, arms trove

BASE OF THE 46TH REGIMENT, Syria — After a nearly two-month siege, Syrian rebels overwhelmed a large military base in the north of the country and made off with tanks, armored vehicles and truckloads of munitions that rebel leaders say will give them a boost in the fight against President Bashar Assad's army.

The rebel capture of the base of the Syrian army's 46th Regiment is a sharp blow to the government's efforts to roll back rebels gains and shows a rising level of organization among opposition forces.

More important than the base's fall, however, are the weapons the rebels found inside.

At a rebel base where the much of the haul was taken after the weekend victory, rebel fighters unloaded half a dozen large trucks piled high with green boxes full of mortars, artillery shells, rockets and rifles taken from the base. Parked nearby were five tanks, two armored vehicles, two rocket launchers and two heavy-caliber artillery cannons

The other notable base capture was near Damascus. The article includes video of rebels walking around the base.


Syrian rebels say they seize base on Damascus outskirts

(Reuters) - Syrian rebels said on Monday they had seized the headquarters of an army battalion near the southern gate of Damascus, the nearest military base to the capital reported to have fallen to opposition fighters.

Video footage showed rebels walking through the site, past destroyed anti-aircraft guns, and one commander saying on a walkie-talkie: "We have completely seized the compound."

The base is on the edge of Hajar al-Aswad district, normally home to thousands of poor refugees from the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights who were at the forefront of the movement against Assad's autocratic rule at the beginning of the revolt.

After months of slow progress, marked by poor organization and supply, rebels have taken over several army positions in outlying regions in the last week, including a Special Forces base near the northern city of Aleppo and a small military airport in the east, on the border with Iraq.

Video of the capture can be found here:

Syrian rebels claim air base outside Damascus (1:02)

 

[HoverBoarder]

Five important military bases fall, the pace of Assad's downfall accelerates. So the important question now is what comes next.

Syrian rebels making advances

BEIRUT — Syrian rebels are making significant advances in their battle against government forces, raising new questions about President Bashar al-Assad’s ability to hold on to power and adding urgency to the quest by the international community for a unified and effective political opposition that could take control should his regime collapse.

In the past week, the rebels have seized five important military facilities in the north, the east and near the capital, Damascus, capturing sizable quantities of weaponry, further isolating remaining government positions and freeing opposition fighters to focus on attacking Assad’s forces.

The fighting is piecemeal, intense and likely to persist for many more months as regime troops and rebel fighters battle it out town by town and base by base across the vast swaths of the country that are being contested. But no longer is it possible to describe the war in Syria as a stalemate, said Jeffrey White, a defense fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, and the pace of rebel gains in recent weeks raises the prospect that a collapse of government forces could come sooner than has been expected.

“The war is turning against the regime, and it’s turning at a faster rate than we had seen before,” White said. “There’s a reasonable chance there will be some kind of breaking point, and the regime will collapse in a hurry. It’s not probable, but it’s possible, and then the guys with the guns will be in charge.”

It is long past due that more countries take a more serious look at how the future post-Assad Syria will be shaped. And it is also important that Russia stops acting like a sullen little child who can't admit any wrong doing, and switch roles into helping in Syria rather than just blindly supporting the bloodshed.

 

[trustbutverify]

I'm sorry HB, what you're relaying here is simply impossible. I have it on the good authority of several prominent truther types that the regime is almost finished mopping up the last remnants of the western-invented rebels. They should be back in full control shortly.

 

[HoverBoarder]

I'm sorry HB, what you're relaying here is simply impossible. I have it on the good authority of several prominent truther types that the regime is almost finished mopping up the last remnants of the western-invented rebels. They should be back in full control shortly.

The possibility that the regime could survive this civil war is becoming less and less likely.

It is very likely that there will be a second civil war after Assad falls, as there is more tensions between FSA that are aligned with the council, and groups like Al-Nursa that are note even part of the FSA, but most groups are currently heavily focused on getting rid of the regime.


Once all of the resupply bases for Aleppo have fallen, which is the vast majority of them already, than Aleppo will fall as well.

As the article above mentioned, the increasing rate of loss of regime control could suddenly turn very rapid if key resupply or other war materials are cut or destroyed. The rebels have been steadily destroying the air power of the regime, including destroying a large number of helicopters and jets in the air bases across Syria and near Damascus during raids and captures of the bases.

The regime has been unable to resupply or support their falling bases, and they are very unlikely to recapture them.

The rebels could have around 2 - 6 months before all areas besides Damascus are captured, and around 3 - 9 months before the Assad regime has completely fallen.



In the meantime, the Assad regime has turned to more and more desperate and lethal attacks on the citizens of Syria for daring to stand up to the dictatorship.

Did Syria drop cluster bombs on a playground near Damascus?

Syrian jets hit a playground outside of Damascus with cluster bombs, killing 10 children, according to Syrian opposition activists. A video purports to show the carnage. Syria denies that it uses cluster bombs.

A Syrian government air strike on a rebel-held village near Damascus killed 10 children on Sunday as they played outdoors, opposition activists said, and video footage showed residents collecting young bodies torn by shrapnel.

The children went out after a lull in fighting in Deir al-Asafir, a village 12 km (8 miles) east of Damascus, when fighter jets struck, activists and residents said.

Video footage taken by activists showed the bodies of two young girls, one wearing purple, the other red, on the street in the village, with wounds to their neck and head. A sobbing woman picked up one of the girls up and hugged her lifeless body.

Another two dead boys, hit in the head and face, were shown on the backseat of a car. Men picked up the bodies of two other children while a larger body lay next to the front wheel of a vehicle.

"None of those killed were older than 15 years old. There are two women among 15 people wounded, mostly hit as they were inside the courtyards of their houses," said Abu Kassem, an activist in the village told Reuters.
"There were no fighters inside Deir al-Asafir when the bombing occurred. They operate on the outskirts. This was indiscriminate bombing," he said.

 

[HoverBoarder]

Some cities are already starting to transition towards a post Assad Syria:

Syrian activists prosper in peaceful town

Children go to school, women shop with confidence, artists work and independent newspapers are flourishing — the town of Minbej is a rare example of the potential in a post-Assad Syria.

Unlike other cities in the northwest heavily, which are petrified by the war to bring down President Bashar Assad, relative peace and stability have allowed a small number of activists to indulge in less urgent matters than fighting for survival.

They have set up independent newspapers, organized street clean-ups and commissioned artists to paint caricatures designed to foster community spirit.

They have fled jobs and studies in Damascus and Aleppo. Well-educated and reluctant to pick up a gun, they believe they can foster democracy and free minds through street art and low-budget, limited-edition newspapers.

“The goal is to help the country in this critical situation [and] in the absence of government activity, inspire youth for the future,” said Faiz Abu Qutaiba, 24, the irrepressible head of the “Agency for the Youth of the Future”.

 

[Childlike Empress]

Lol. You're aware that Saudi propaganda toy Al-Arabiya celebrates the immediate fall of Assad and the victory of their Allahu Akbar hordes and independent press daily, since around 20 months, right?

Well, if it makes you feel better...

 

[JihadJane]

That's good, very good in fact



I'm sure French weapons will come within weeks. Moving from complete air supremacy to being challenged even if only by manpads is an enormous differance. Helicopters in particular are a very effective COIN aircraft, and most vurneable. Assad is short on pilots, if you kill a few the rest will be that more likely to defect, degrading his operational capability further.



Yes, although I suspect light weapons aren't that critical for the rebels. I imagine they have enough, or nearly enough anyway, and if not giving them a few thousand assault rifles or somesuch, plus ammunition won't create a major new terrorist hazard. They lack heavy indirect weaponry (such as mortars), anti-tank weapons and anti-air weapons. These are all much more problematic.

McHrozni

Shameless.