How can peace in Syria be achieved?

[dc1971]

You should try reading some of your own posts sometime. It's like skipping a page of a book.

YOU should try reading some of YOUR own posts, Virus. It's like not even reading a book.

 

[Virus]

YOU should try reading some of YOUR own posts, Virus. It's like not even reading a book.

Can always count on you for that "WTF?" post.

 

[HoverBoarder]

You're confused. I was referring to dead BEFORE armed rebel fighting started, as I called it, on March 23 (I said 25). You count the nuymber seen adding up during the whole several-month span I looked at summarily. There was armed rebel fighting, dead police, dead soldiers, murky incidents, all adding up that same time, and only that total of protesters, "protesters," and those killed by "protesters" reached thousands within several months.

So did thousands of protesters get killed before any opposition people starting doing their own killing? Just blithely say yes here. No use breaking character this late in the play.

When you add up the numbers of protesters killed from the source you posted, it quickly adds up to a few hundred here, a few hundred there, and the few thousand estimate provided would be a fairly reasonable estimate.

Beyond that, there certainly are a number of details we would likely disagree on. The number of protesters killed would certainly be far higher than the 35 number you cited though.

AND, sorry I missed this. You did provide video notes. Thanks.

Hm, that's a new way of looking at it. I'll re-consider it in that light.

To help flesh out the whole sequence, what direction does he walk, with his RPG but not his white head-scarf, after being knocked down in a plume of exhaust smoke by an unseen presumed artillery shelling? South, right? Towards the camera, then behind him). A moment later in the video, another shell lands near him, just south of the last spot he was seen. Same kind of smoke lingering there by the time the camera pans there. You think he was almost hit again? Same kind of exhaust-cloud-producing shells. What kind of artillery keeps following that one guy with the RPG launcher so closely, do you think?

You agree this guy is probably a rebel though?

I did not see him right next to another explosion, and the angle and other factors make it seem very unlikely to me that it could have been from an RPG...

Just curious though, how many artillery and air attacks throughout Syria do you think were faked by 'some guy with an RPG?'

1%, 5%, 50%.


Let's just say for the sake of argument 75%. 75% of all reported regime artillery and air attacks were due to 'some guy with an RPG.'

1) Why would no one say anything about that?
2) Do you think the building damages and size of craters through many of the bombed cities in Syria could realistically been caused by RPGs?
3) What about the pictures of regime planes and artillery in areas of reported regime shelling/ air bombing?
4) How many deaths could the thousands of reported, photographed, and filmed artillery, air, and 'some guy with and RPG' have caused?

 

[HoverBoarder]

Dear reader,

The same problems that people had with Bush's "axis of evil" comments are the same problems people have with the people that JJ linked to. Blanket blame assertions that ignore any detailed analysis in order to bolster their own personal world views.

With this in mind:

please now read this:

Bringing up problems with posts that were shown to be inaccurate or dishonest is the exact opposite of the 'axis of evil' style thinking that was shown in the video you posted.

CL should never had made the '35 protesters killed' comment if he didn't want people to click on his link and see that his statement was not honest. Which ironically instead provided information that validated the estimate given by Virus and I.

Ignoring any contradictory data, and giving blind support for one side is not a path towards rational analysis.


Neither was it necessary to pull the strawman of delibertly ignoring and falsly changing the original post that talked about the estimate of protesters killed and current tally of those killed in Syria. Just in order to ignore any uncomfortable topics that don't support your confirmation bias.


Speaking of which, I noticed that you specifically ignored this:

Hence the irony of the video that you posted. Do you believe even a portion of what they claimed?


Do you think the US is trying to colonize Syria?

Do you think the "same banks that are foreclosing on people around the country are the same banks that want to take over in Syria?"

Do you think that "the most couragous thing was the Iranians peaceful sturggle against the US and the Shaw," while the killing of the peaceful struggle of the Iranians (or the initially peaceful struggle of the Syrians) today against their oppresive government is ok?

Do you agee when the speaker at 56:20 noted that, "the people that are murdering people and destabilizing Syria are in service of the same banks that OWS is protesting against. And there is no equation between the imperialist thugs and the Occupy demonstrators. There are millions of people in this country who have a burning hatred for the super rich and the 1%."


Because it seems to me that if you don't want to repeat history, the first thing is to seriously and genuinely look at the situation instead of living in a crazed fantasy land style thinking.


All of which largely comes down to accountability. The only reason there has been a Syrian crisis at all is because the allies of the Syrian regime decided that their foreign policy interests were more important than to stand up to war crime and major human rights abuses.

The Syrian government in turn received a free pass to kill as many innocent Syrians as they wanted without fear of any repercussions from their allies, and in fact received weapons and support to continue their war against their own people instead.

The only reason that the regime continues to get support from the people who were shown in the video that you posted and on this thread, is because their unquestioning support for the regime is more important to maintain their world views than taking the risk of genuine and honest review of the situation in Syria.

 

[HoverBoarder]

So hopefully there will be more discussion on ideas on how peace in Syria can be achieved.

I do like my idea of a buffer zone that would be run by a number of troops including Russian and Saudi Arabian troops.

Both Russia and Saudi Arabia would be very important in convincing both sides to agree to it, although there would need to be more details beyond just monitoring the prisoner detention centers and patrolling the buffer zone. I would very much appreciate input on that.

Eventually there will need to be disarming, but one of the problems with having disarming be a first step is that neither side trusts the other side to disarm, and it would just simply not work. A buffer zone is a good way to address that problem.

However, there are still many issues that need to be worked out on it, but I would like to work on drafting up a proposal and sending it to the UN for consideration.


One of the problems of course is air power. Russia would have to tak a very active role in ensuring that the regime does not continue to bomb Syrian cities to rubble. Some of which can be seen in the following video:


Evidence of harrowing attacks on Syrian civilians

Bumping this post because it's the point of the thread.

 

[Virus]

I still maintain that peace is never achieved unless one side faces annihilation or both sides get sick of fighting in a stalemate. Getting the UN to break up a fight and impose "peace" on people who want to slug it out in a deathmatch just prolongs the war.

The reason for the war in the first place is the Assad tyranny, despised by the majority of Syrians, and a feeble economy suffocating under the regime's cronyism and corruption.

 

[HoverBoarder]

I still maintain that peace is never achieved unless one side faces annihilation or both sides get sick of fighting in a stalemate. Getting the UN to break up a fight and impose "peace" on people who want to slug it out in a deathmatch just prolongs the war.

A very valid and good point. One that I have thought about a lot.

However, there is a lot more to this than just the military conflict.

Right now there are a lot of Free Syrian towns that are trying to set up social services blocked by Assad. Whether those services are set up by Salafists, or the international community will play a big role in how Syria develops in the future.

Worldview: The way forward for a moderate Syria

(a good article that I plan to expand on later)

The reason for the war in the first place is the Assad tyranny, despised by the majority of Syrians, and a feeble economy suffocating under the regime's cronyism and corruption.

Well I would definitely agree that that is why there was opposition to Assad in the first place. Although that never had to turn into a war, and only did so because the Syrian regime's allies gave them a free pass to go on as big of a mass killing spree as they wanted short of using chemical weapons.

The entire Syrian conflict could have been resolved without any military action if Russia and Iran had not supported the conflict.

 

[Caustic Logic]

Can you believe I had to write this twice? First time before crash was better.

When you add up the numbers of protesters killed from the source you posted, it quickly adds up to a few hundred here, a few hundred there, and the few thousand estimate provided would be a fairly reasonable estimate.

Beyond that, there certainly are a number of details we would likely disagree on. The number of protesters killed would certainly be far higher than the 35 number you cited though.

Yeah. I explained that previously, not far back. You're very confused on this, and I suggest just paying attention to what that estimate is actually tied to, by me, in words with all the usual meanings. 'K? This part I won't re-explain again other than this last hint: show how significantly more than about 25-50 or maybe a little more protesters, or anyone, was killed prior to March 23 or bug off because we're not talking about the same thing, even though you claim we are. I don't care how confused you continue to act about it, you're on your own. Figure it out or don't.

I did not see him right next to another explosion,

Re-re-explained: Just look at the video. 2:10-2:15, walking towards and then past (south of) the camera. 2:38 I think is another blast of the same tearing-type sound. The camera tries to ignore, but later pans south, about walking distance in that time, half-block or so, and there's the same kind of cloud at the mouth of an alley. The guy isn't visible. My guess is he went down that alley just as another "shell came crashing down" near him. UNLUCKY but LUCKY dude, and armed.

and the angle and other factors make it seem very unlikely to me that it could have been from an RPG...

Not sure what you mean here.

Note the person next to him in wave-catching robes is not tipped over by the blast, only the guy holding a rocket launcher. Neither of them was injured, one guy just fell down about a second after the blast.

We don't see him shoot? Nor do we see a shell coming "down." It takes 25 frames to follow the sound and see the guy just then falling down and losing his Khaffiyeh.

Other rebels with RPGs we do see them firing the things, two instances in this video, neither certainly from May 25 but more than likely so, both placed around north Main Street in Taldou.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4DKTRO_AAXA
(latter half)
In both cases, there are clouds of exhaust very like what we see in my video, a little in the rocket's path, more trumpeted out the back end. In both cases, it's thinner than seen in the first blast. In that case, the guy was backed up against a wall with a low overhang, so the cloud in back should be dense and rolling, as it is.

As I've said, grudging acknowledgment is also acceptable, but I see no reason to expect anything more than you've been giving over and over. So I can also just walk away, as I'm about to, from your continued hollow posturing as the valliant defender of the orthodoxy against the hordes of a few "dishonest" ... whatever else you think I am that causes the lying. It's a sadder ending than realizing I finally got through that brick wall (or one of 'em) and got you to agree or at least UNDERSTAND a single thing I've said. But it seems to be the ending you wrote into your script here, so whatever.
(Monty Python sense, image a couple less limbs than here)

Just curious though, how many artillery and air attacks throughout Syria do you think were faked by 'some guy with an RPG?'

100% in the "Houla massacre," including several hundred guys with these and other weapons. Or so the physical battle damage as seen on May 26, several rebel videos of their own actions, and the portion of the alleged witnesses you consider to be the liars, conspire to suggest.

The site is down, so I can't easily make it as hard to ignore as I'd like, but the photos, videos - look 'em up. Horizontal shelling. Few damaged roofs, but lots of walls holed on par with both heavy AA rounds (think Tripoli and Sirte last year) and RPGs, against the massacre homes and the nearby government security posts that even the UN acknowledged two of these were conquered by some rebel offensive that very day. Not terribly late in the day, before the massacres. Plus smaller bullet holes all over, power lines down, tress in the median mowed down, signs and crests torn down, black graffiti, massive arson of homes and fields, and those darn massacres.

1%, 5%, 50%.

I don't know, dude. I deal in specific cases.It's probably at least semi-significant portion on average, 5-25%? In Taldou, apparently, 100% by him and his hundreds of friends.

Let's just say for the sake of argument 75%. 75% of all reported regime artillery and air attacks were due to 'some guy with an RPG.'

1) Why would no one say anything about that?

Probably the same reason they don't at actual levels, that you don't even when it's distilled past the point of ignoring and put right in your face about this one instance. It's grossly inconvenient and just cannot be true. Something explains it, whatever. And for all the other evidence, obviously, or else - gulp - and no, that's not possible. Someone would have said something.

2) Do you think the building damages and size of craters through many of the bombed cities in Syria could realistically been caused by RPGs?

The ones that truly don't look like it? No, I would guess most likely not. But in Houla, yeah, even the UN investigators didn't see anything that couldn't be caused mortars, which the rebels own plenty of.

3) What about the pictures of regime planes and artillery in areas of reported regime shelling/ air bombing?

What about 'em? None in Houla. Not even tracks. Just rebels firing explosives around town that same day, as they overran probably all of the security posts and secured free reign for themselves, while removing it for "the regime," just before the massacres. Like SOME of the alleged witnesses said and the others uniformly glossed over or didn't happen to see.

4) How many deaths could the thousands of reported, photographed, and filmed artillery, air, and 'some guy with and RPG' have caused?

Strange list, but just taking the last one, I could only say ATM 5-10% to maybe 25-35% or possibly more, depending on lots of variables over many places, many months, and many parallel info-universes. It's a lot, but then the government's been kicking some pretty serious ass too, so I imagine they're still doing easily more than half of the overall blowing up.

In Taldou, May 25, other than rebel fighters killed in the attack, it would be 100% of the victims, given as 108 in number, 49 children.

Yes, I realize the gravity of what I'm saying and why it can never have been true. Don't sweat it man, just keep doing your defending thing. You'll help the world see the light.

 

[Caustic Logic]

CL should never had made the '35 protesters killed' comment if he didn't want people to click on his link and see that his statement was not honest.

Keep it up, just like that. Now everybody in the house, just do the same thing. Now do it-a twice-uh! That's it, uh! Do-in tha [vocoder]confused defender, confused defender[/vocoder]

 

[HoverBoarder]

Keep it up, just like that. Now everybody in the house, just do the same thing. Now do it-a twice-uh! That's it, uh! Do-in tha [vocoder]confused defender, confused defender[/vocoder]

Were you to review the authenticity of the information you post, it would not have been a problem.

 

[Caustic Logic]

OH, and, it doesn't exactly PROVE anything one war or another, and of course can't be seen to mean anything, but ...
(rant, feel free to ignore)

Those 25-35-50-ish protesters killed in the first days were primarily picked off in small numbers on a daily basis from the public rallies in Dara'a by those pesky unseen snipers. We can't really be certain who they were, but definitely working for the regime, of course. They repress, and this is repression, duh.

A couple people a day of course didn't serve to scare people off collectively - the protests got bigger each day. But it did provide a steady provocation and excuse why those pushing for conflict might have decided "enough is enough. We take the guns and petrol bombs and money hidden in the mosque and start defending ourselves." Except of course the regime planted those there, so they could kill four people in a raid/battle to "find" the stuff, show the pictures to prove their hunch, and then get zero credit and total blame for attacking protesters IN A MOSQUE, for God's sake, how dare they! And this after the week of pointless sniper provocation.

Good thing Syria's repression planners' main strategy is to come up with actions that will make sure Hover Border doesn't get confused. It's a simple formula: if it's idiotic and suicidal villainy, it's a go. And the Scooby Doo activist investigators catch them for real every time, and thank God the vast majority of us are on the side of reality with them. Fuzzy feelings, awww.

 

[Caustic Logic]

Were you to review the authenticity of the information you post, it would not have been a problem.

I can work that in as a sample in a sort of nasal-nerd voice, filtered and compressed. Prior to the chorus. That'll have to include things like Please Mr. Putin, step aside and give peace a chance. If you only take away all of Syria's weapons, the rebels can finally start their talks.

It needs a lot of work, obviously, but it will change the world, man. But the main part is solid and catchy. confused defender, confused defender. It sounds pretty bad-ass in my head.

 

[JihadJane]

Bringing up problems with posts that were shown to be inaccurate or dishonest is the exact opposite of the 'axis of evil' style thinking that was shown in the video you posted.

Sorry, sweeping, unsupported assertions of dishonesty do not count as "bringing up problems with posts".

Goodbye. Enjoy your thread!

 

[Caustic Logic]

Sorry, sweeping, unsupported assertions of dishonesty do not count as "bringing up problems with posts".

Does it help if they make up a fake or jumbled version of what you said and that version is or seems dishonest? I don't think that does help, and makes this one of the more appropriate overall responses:

Goodbye. Enjoy your thread!

 

[Caustic Logic]

Not that I was saying goodbye. I'll leave that in your hands. But you're rid of me for good if you play this right.

One more unsolicited lifeline and my patience is up. Post #323, first two paragraphs. Review slowly just what I say in the quote box and how you respond. It could hardly be made clearer, if you make sure you understand each word and sentence as you go. If you still want to insist I'm being dishonest there, then I'll vanish from your absurdist thread with a final spit.

 

[Caustic Logic]

Ah, c'mon, don't walk away and let me own your thread so easy. I said read slowly and carefully, but it shouldn't take days, I would think.

BTW now that the site's back up, I probably won't interrupt you much at all even if you don't send me packing with an affirmation of your dishonesty diagnosis. Just remember, all the words are right here, smart people can see just what each of us is saying, and your credibility is your own to guard.

 

[HoverBoarder]

Ah, c'mon, don't walk away and let me own your thread so easy. I said read slowly and carefully, but it shouldn't take days, I would think.

Oh, I am happy to respond, I just have been too busy for the last few days, so I couldn't check JREF.

OH, and, it doesn't exactly PROVE anything one war or another, and of course can't be seen to mean anything, but ...
(rant, feel free to ignore)

Those 25-35-50-ish protesters killed in the first days were primarily picked off in small numbers on a daily basis from the public rallies in Dara'a by those pesky unseen snipers. We can't really be certain who they were, but definitely working for the regime, of course. They repress, and this is repression, duh.

A couple people a day of course didn't serve to scare people off collectively - the protests got bigger each day. But it did provide a steady provocation and excuse why those pushing for conflict might have decided "enough is enough. We take the guns and petrol bombs and money hidden in the mosque and start defending ourselves." Except of course the regime planted those there, so they could kill four people in a raid/battle to "find" the stuff, show the pictures to prove their hunch, and then get zero credit and total blame for attacking protesters IN A MOSQUE, for God's sake, how dare they! And this after the week of pointless sniper provocation.

Good thing Syria's repression planners' main strategy is to come up with actions that will make sure Hover Border doesn't get confused. It's a simple formula: if it's idiotic and suicidal villainy, it's a go. And the Scooby Doo activist investigators catch them for real every time, and thank God the vast majority of us are on the side of reality with them. Fuzzy feelings, awww.

So it was 'never meant to be a factual statement.' Therefore, anything you say or I call on that is dishonest is ok.

BTW now that the site's back up, I probably won't interrupt you much at all even if you don't send me packing with an affirmation of your dishonesty diagnosis. Just remember, all the words are right here, smart people can see just what each of us is saying, and your credibility is your own to guard.

Sure, if you say something that is factually inaccurate, I will call you on it.

If anyone wants to see where I have called you out time and time and time again on your dishonest posts, they can just click on your sources which fully contradict your statements.

If you want to add to your collection of unsupported, cherry picked dishonest propaganda without fear of anyone calling you out on it, than that is what your wiki is for.

 

[HoverBoarder]

Sorry, sweeping, unsupported assertions of dishonesty do not count as "bringing up problems with posts".

Goodbye. Enjoy your thread!

So just ignore any contradicting data or questions that you don't want to answer, and move on.

Enjoy fantasy land.

 

[HoverBoarder]

Ignoring any contradictory data, and giving blind support for one side is not a path towards rational analysis.


Neither was it necessary to pull the strawman of delibertly ignoring and falsly changing the original post that talked about the estimate of protesters killed and current tally of those killed in Syria. Just in order to ignore any uncomfortable topics that don't support your confirmation bias.


Speaking of which, I noticed that you specifically ignored this:

Hence the irony of the video that you posted. Do you believe even a portion of what they claimed?


Do you think the US is trying to colonize Syria?

Do you think the "same banks that are foreclosing on people around the country are the same banks that want to take over in Syria?"

Do you think that "the most couragous thing was the Iranians peaceful sturggle against the US and the Shaw," while the killing of the peaceful struggle of the Iranians (or the initially peaceful struggle of the Syrians) today against their oppresive government is ok?

Do you agee when the speaker at 56:20 noted that, "the people that are murdering people and destabilizing Syria are in service of the same banks that OWS is protesting against. And there is no equation between the imperialist thugs and the Occupy demonstrators. There are millions of people in this country who have a burning hatred for the super rich and the 1%."


Because it seems to me that if you don't want to repeat history, the first thing is to seriously and genuinely look at the situation instead of living in a crazed fantasy land style thinking.


All of which largely comes down to accountability. The only reason there has been a Syrian crisis at all is because the allies of the Syrian regime decided that their foreign policy interests were more important than to stand up to war crime and major human rights abuses.

The Syrian government in turn received a free pass to kill as many innocent Syrians as they wanted without fear of any repercussions from their allies, and in fact received weapons and support to continue their war against their own people instead.

The only reason that the regime continues to get support from the people who were shown in the video that you posted and on this thread, is because their unquestioning support for the regime is more important to maintain their world views than taking the risk of genuine and honest review of the situation in Syria.

So ignore and run I see...

Always your choice.

Let no one say that you spent too much time seriously thinking about the errors in your rationality or contradictory information.

 

[HoverBoarder]

So back to the point of the thread...

I still maintain that peace is never achieved unless one side faces annihilation or both sides get sick of fighting in a stalemate. Getting the UN to break up a fight and impose "peace" on people who want to slug it out in a deathmatch just prolongs the war.

The reason for the war in the first place is the Assad tyranny, despised by the majority of Syrians, and a feeble economy suffocating under the regime's cronyism and corruption.

So if that is the case, and because there really is no situation where an Assad regime would not be resisted by the Syrian people. Which literally means that there will be a civil war in Syria for at least as long as there is an Assad regime in power. Than how can the inevitable fall of the Assad regime be managed in the least deadly way for the Syrian people?