2012 Electoral College Predictions

[remirol]

Bump, so some of our big talkin' conservatives can get their last minute predictions in

 

[StankApe]

I want it to be 269-269

then the House elects Romney but the Senate elects Biden


dogs and cats, living together MASS HYSTERIA!

seriously, watching the maelstrom that would spring from that would require the biggest box of popcorn and cup of soda on the planet to get through!! (for some reason couldn't find the emoticon for that).

I predict Obama will win but it'll be much closer than people were expecting.

say 276-262 Obama

 

[CORed]

I want it to be 269-269

then the House elects Romney but the Senate elects Biden


dogs and cats, living together MASS HYSTERIA!

seriously, watching the maelstrom that would spring from that would require the biggest box of popcorn and cup of soda on the planet to get through!! (for some reason couldn't find the emoticon for that).

I predict Obama will win but it'll be much closer than people were expecting.

say 276-262 Obama

While the House elects Romney and Senate elects Biden (or the less likely by not impossible house elects Obama and Senate elects Ryan) scenario would be amusing, most likely the result would be that the VP would be frozen out of any meaningful role in the administration. The Vice President of the US has only two constitutional roles: Take over the presidency in the event of the death resignation or impeachment of the President, and preside over the Senate (and cast the deciding vote in the event of a tie).

The somewhat more problematic scenario would be a deadlock in the House or Senate. The House votes by state, and it is the newly-elected House and Senate that vote, so a 25-25 tie for President is not impossible. The Senate determination of Vice President is also interesting. The voting would occur before the inauguration of the new VP, so conceivably, Biden could end up casting the tie-breaking vote for himself.

The deadlock in the House scenario happened in 1800, when Jefferson and Burr tied for President, and the House also tied, with multiple ballots cast, until Some of Burr's backers abstained and allowed Jefferson to win. This led to the 12th Amendment, which revised the Electoral College procedure to cast separate votes for President and VP.

 

[CORed]

I'm going to predict Romney wins the popular vote by a very narrow margin, with Obama winning in the Electoral College.

Expect serious whining from right-wingers if this happens (even more than if Obama wins both popular and Electoral votes).

 

[Madalch]

While the House elects Romney and Senate elects Biden (or the less likely by not impossible house elects Obama and Senate elects Ryan) scenario would be amusing...

Until the teabaggers who keep saying stuff about watering the tree of liberty with blood remember that...

The Vice President of the US has only two constitutional roles: Take over the presidency in the event of the death resignation or impeachment of the President, and preside over the Senate (and cast the deciding vote in the event of a tie).

If it somehow happened that Obama retained the presidency with Ryan as his VP, I suspect there would be some rapid increase of security measures around the White House.

 

[JoeTheJuggler]

I'm going to predict Romney wins the popular vote by a very narrow margin, with Obama winning in the Electoral College.

I'd put the popular vote at 50:50 odds right now (and the outcome may even be a statistical tie*).

*And I think we should acknowledge that we can't count votes with enough certainty for relatively few votes to mean that one candidate certainly got more than the other.

 

[remirol]

Weekly update:

[Figures from 538 today]
The following states are currently listed at 75% or better for Obama to win:

California, Connecticut, DC, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, Maine (all districts), Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, Nevada, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Washington.

Total locked-up electoral votes: 243 (270 to win).

To this we can now add New Hampshire (80%) and Wisconsin (81%), making a total of 259 electoral votes which Obama has locked up.

Wisconsin is at 82.2%. New Hampshire is now down to 69%, so we can make this 255. Nevada is at 74.4%; I'm going to make a point-six percent exception here for the sake of simplicity because it's silly to think that at this stage it will somehow flip Romney.

Ohio is now at 77.6% for (as far as I can tell) the first time this cycle.
New Hampshire is at 75.4%. Wisconsin remains at 88.1%. Nevada has rocketed to 82.8%.

Obama now has 277 electoral votes locked up.

The following states are currently at 75% or better for Romney to win:

Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Mississippi, Montana, North Dakota, Nebraska (all districts), Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming.

Total locked-up electoral votes: 191

To this we can add North Carolina (80%), for a new total of 206.

No change here.

Still no change here.

Ohio (18 votes) currently predicted at 69.5% for Obama
Wisconsin (10) at 70.4% for Obama
Virginia (13) at 63.3% for Obama
Iowa (6) at 63.5% for Obama
New Hampshire (4) at 74.2% for Obama

Currently:

Ohio (18 votes) at 72.0% for Obama (who needs 15)
Virginia (13) at 51.2% for Obama
Florida (29) at 67.5% for Romney
Colorado (9) at 51.8% for Obama
Iowa (6) at 66.5% for Obama
New Hampshire (4) at 69.0% for Obama

As of 10/31:

Virginia (13) at 61.8% for Obama
Florida (29) at 59.3% for Romney
Colorado (9) at 60.7% for Obama
Iowa (6) at 74.4% for Obama

My prediction? I'll give Obama Ohio, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and Virginia on top of the "locks" above, and Romney should take all the rest. That makes it:

Obama: 288
Romney: 250

Now looking like it should be 294-244 as Iowa is rapidly sliding to Obama's side.

 

[daredelvis]

Well, yes, but Nate Silver does all this terrific analysis for the Times and he's convinced that Obama is a huge favorite in the Electoral College, which is the only thing that matters, don't you know.

It is. You seem to have forgotten the 2000 election.

That and the Supreme Court.

Daredelvis

 

[RedIbis]

Weekly update:



Ohio is now at 77.6% for (as far as I can tell) the first time this cycle.
New Hampshire is at 75.4%. Wisconsin remains at 88.1%. Nevada has rocketed to 82.8%.

Obama now has 277 electoral votes locked up.



Still no change here.



As of 10/31:

Virginia (13) at 61.8% for Obama
Florida (29) at 59.3% for Romney
Colorado (9) at 60.7% for Obama
Iowa (6) at 74.4% for Obama



Now looking like it should be 294-244 as Iowa is rapidly sliding to Obama's side.

Unless there is some dramatic revelation about one of the candidates, I don't expect there to be much movement in any direction. What you see is probably what we're getting.

 

[JoeTheJuggler]

I said this on Sept. 17th. I am now revising my estimate...

I think Obama won't win 300+ in the EC, but he'll land somewhere around 285-295 in the EC with Romney making up the remainder.

Not a landslide win by any means, but a win nonetheless.

I agree, but a clear win. I don't think there will be anything like 2000.

 

[MattusMaximus]

I'm going to predict Romney wins the popular vote by a very narrow margin, with Obama winning in the Electoral College.

Expect serious whining from right-wingers if this happens (even more than if Obama wins both popular and Electoral votes).

I think that regardless of what happens or how the popular vote goes, you are going to hear serious whining from the right-wingers after President Obama is re-elected. The fact that they latched onto something as loony as birtherism, along with the GOP/Tea Party leadership's tacit acceptance of it, is evidence of this.

 

[MattusMaximus]

I agree, but a clear win. I don't think there will be anything like 2000.

I may have to re-revise my estimate and go back to my original... Nate Silver at 538 is now estimating that President Obama could get 300 votes in the EC.

 

[dudalb]

I think that regardless of what happens or how the popular vote goes, you are going to hear serious whining from the right-wingers after President Obama is re-elected. The fact that they latched onto something as loony as birtherism, along with the GOP/Tea Party leadership's tacit acceptance of it, is evidence of this.

I hope people have footage of Republicans blasting Democrats for complaining about Bush winning the electorial college but losing the popular vote ready to roll......

You are going to see a lot of hypocrisy on both sides if the Obama wins the presidency but loses the popular vote event happens.

 

[RedIbis]

I may have to re-revise my estimate and go back to my original... Nate Silver at 538 is now estimating that President Obama could get 300 votes in the EC.

One theory I've heard is that Romney's doing well in the popular vote because the red states are getting redder, which is pretty much meaningless.

 

[Baylor]

One theory I've heard is that Romney's doing well in the popular vote because the red states are getting redder, which is pretty much meaningless.

Obama has a chance to lose the PV but win the EV because voters in heavily democratic states have other things to worry about than a stupid election, viz. Sandy's wrath.

 

[RedIbis]

Obama has a chance to lose the PV but win the EV because voters in heavily democratic states have other things to worry about than a stupid election, viz. Sandy's wrath.

I heard that earlier. NY and NJ are very blue anyway without Obama's positive presence in the area. Whether it's unsavory to admit, the storm can be good for Obama if undecideds in swing states see an effective president.

 

[Tricky]

I heard that earlier. NY and NJ are very blue anyway without Obama's positive presence in the area. Whether it's unsavory to admit, the storm can be good for Obama if undecideds in swing states see an effective president.

It will be interesting to see what people in Sandy-affected swing states say versus unaffected swing states. Yeah, Ohioans and Coloradans can read the news, but that's different from being in the middle of it. Let's see how Virginians, North Carolinians and Pennsylvanians perceive it. Also note, Floridians already had a taste or two of Obama's crisis management. Will this event cause them to recall it fondly or angrily?

 

[RedIbis]

Also note, Floridians already had a taste or two of Obama's crisis management. Will this event cause them to recall it fondly or angrily?

Hurricanes? I'm in the Tampa Bay area. I don't recall any major events during his administration.

 

[Tricky]

Hurricanes? I'm in the Tampa Bay area. I don't recall any major events during his administration.

No, there weren't any major storms, but there were some minor ones and some threats. They were taken very seriously by the Obama administration, and Floridians might remember that with the big storm news and the positive publicity for Obama's reaction to them.

 

[Cylinder]

So after slaughtering a few chickens, I come up with the following first and final prediction:

Romney: 302
Obama: 236

Romney flips NH, VA, NC, FL, OH, IN, WI, IA, CO, and NV. In my model, Romney would carry PA, but I've awarded that to Obama 51-48.

Romney: 56
Obama: 42

I've got independants at R+12. And turnout at R+1. Scott Rasmussen is still hanging on to D+2. 2008 - D+8 - just ain't happening.