2012 Electoral College Predictions

[JoeTheJuggler]

(TBH, I don't think Scott Rasmussen intentionally skews his polling -- I do think, however, that he has a blind spot to his flawed methodology because it's producing numbers he wants to see.

Or at least numbers that make lots of people continue to say "Rasmussen". It's not bad as a business strategy, as long as the numbers aren't too far out.

 

[KwamiFabu]

For what it's worth: The Atlantic just did a rundown of states that release their early or absentee voting numbers.

In 2010, I looked at early voting in 20 states and found early signs of the disproportionate Republican turnout that would define the Tea Party wave. This year, the picture is more mixed, befitting the sort of non-wave election most are expecting. It should shock no one that signs point to a significant dropoff from 2008 for Obama; if Election Day trends hold, he seems likely to lose a handful of states he won four years ago. In particular, the early vote looks promising for Republicans in North Carolina, Florida and Colorado. But early voting in Iowa, Nevada, and (though it's tricky to assess) Ohio still looks strong enough for Democrats.

The article provides this handy link to all the raw data from each state.

Michael Barone, who has covered elections since the Lincoln-Douglas days, and regularly appears on the evil Fox News, predicts a big win for Romney and gives a state-by-state breakdown.

[J]ust about every indicator suggests that Republicans are more enthusiastic about voting -- and about their candidate -- than they were in 2008, and Democrats are less so.

That's been apparent in early or absentee voting, in which Democrats trail their 2008 numbers in target states Virginia, Ohio, Iowa and Nevada.

The Obama campaign strategy, from the beginning, has recognized these handicaps, running barrages of early anti-Romney ads in states that Obama carried narrowly. But other states, not so heavily barraged, have come into contention.

Notice that the two articles disagree on Ohio, which has been the focus of media coverage for weeks. Barone, who despite his conservative leanings is generally accurate with his head-counting, also has Romney winning Pennsylvania -- previously thought in the bag for Obama. A story in the NY Times tells how the Romney campaign has kept the Keystone State in play.

If ever there were a place where a last-ditch torrent of money could move the needle, this is it. For the last couple of months, there has been a void of presidential ads in Pennsylvania. So when Republican strategists looked for places where their money could go the furthest, they set their sights here, reasoning that a dollar spent in Erie or Altoona would have a greater impact than in a place like Las Vegas or Cleveland, where political commercials have clogged the airwaves.

Republicans believe that even if they cannot stop the president from winning the state — and rob him of its crucial 20 electoral votes — they can cut into his margins with certain key demographics. Mr. Obama carried the state by 10 points in 2008, a victory in large part because of strong support in Philadelphia and its surrounding suburbs, some of which he carried by 20 points.

 

[varwoche]

I predict there will be one rogue Ron Paul electoral vote.

 

[Peephole]

For people wondering why right-wingers keep deluding themselves like this. It's just an effort to whip up some enthusiasm to get everyone to the polls. Guys like Barone know perfectly well that it's looking very grim for Romney. But they're hoping that the polls are all wrong and that some chest-beating will convince enough right-wingers to go vote and maybe still eke out a win.

 

[Kestrel]

A cool New York Times interactive graphic showing the paths to victory for Obama and Romney:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/11/02/us/politics/paths-to-the-white-house.html

 

[Peephole]

Can everybody bookmark as much of these ridiculous predictions from guys like Barone? We can create a thread next wednesday and mock the predictions and the squirming the day after.

 

[Kestrel]

Can everybody bookmark as much of these ridiculous predictions from guys like Barone? We can create a thread next wednesday and mock the predictions and the squirming the day after.

This rundown of how Romney sweeps to victory belongs in that thread:

http://theulstermanreport.com/2012/...-tuesday-election-break-down-how-romney-wins/

How can any sane Republican believe that Romney will win Oregon?

 

[KwamiFabu]

Can everybody bookmark as much of these ridiculous predictions from guys like Barone? We can create a thread next wednesday and mock the predictions and the squirming the day after.

I believe I qualified Barone as a conservative who worked for Fox News. It's pretty funny that people dismiss Barone as some wingnut, yet accept Nate Silver's "ridiculous predictions" (83.7%? really?) as established fact.

Forget Barone; read the Atlantic article. And check out the link to the George Mason University early/absentee voting. Pay particular attention to the Ohio returns. With that in mind, here's an interesting item from the National Journal.

Both Obama’s and (to a lesser extent) Romney’s campaigns point to scenarios that allow them to reach an Electoral College majority without winning Ohio. For Obama, the most reasonable is to hold Wisconsin, Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, and New Hampshire (or Virginia instead of those final two); for Romney, it’s to win Wisconsin and every other swing state except New Mexico, Nevada, and either Iowa or New Hampshire—or to break through in a blue state like Michigan. But neither side really wants to test that proposition. For each man, the most direct route to the Oval Office runs through this closely, and deeply, divided state.

 

[Cylinder]

Pay particular attention to the Ohio returns.

Shush...you'll ruin the suprise.

 

[JoeTheJuggler]

I believe I qualified Barone as a conservative who worked for Fox News. It's pretty funny that people dismiss Barone as some wingnut, yet accept Nate Silver's "ridiculous predictions" (83.7%? really?) as established fact.

You do realize that that figure is a probability of an Obama win (by any margin) and not a prediction of what percentage of the vote Obama will get? In other words, 83.7% is in no way a "prediction".

 

[Peephole]

I believe I qualified Barone as a conservative who worked for Fox News. It's pretty funny that people dismiss Barone as some wingnut, yet accept Nate Silver's "ridiculous predictions" (83.7%? really?) as established fact.

Forget Barone; read the Atlantic article. And check out the link to the George Mason University early/absentee voting. Pay particular attention to the Ohio returns. With that in mind, here's an interesting item from the National Journal.

Rofl, we've got a believer.

Looked up Barone:

On November 11, 2008, Barone said journalists trashed Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, the Republicans' vice presidential nominee, because "she did not abort her Down syndrome baby."

Totally sane guy, yeah.

On topic: Ann Seltzer puts Obama up by five in Iowa. So that seems like a done deal.

http://blogs.desmoinesregister.com/...edge-to-obama/article?gcheck=1&nclick_check=1

The only path to victory I see for Romney is an upset in Wisconsin, and simultaneously keeping Obama from taking New Hampshire, Colorado or Virginia. Ohio, Nevada and Iowa seem lost for Romney.

 

[Peephole]

Mitt Romney is convinced that Republicans will win Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Virginia, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Nevada:

 

[RandFan]

Mitt Romney is convinced that Republicans will win Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Virginia, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Nevada:

He made the exact same confident predictions in 2008. He failed on all of them. Go to 2:40 of this Maddow clip.

 

[Peephole]

Watch the video...

 

[RandFan]

Watch the video...

Yeah, another day another screw up.

 

[L.Y.S.]

Electoral College: Romney 328-Obama 212.

Overall vote something like 53%-46%, Romney.

This earlier prediction tickles me a bit.

 

[Baylor]

The only path to victory I see for Romney is an upset in Wisconsin, and simultaneously keeping Obama from taking New Hampshire, Colorado or Virginia. Ohio, Nevada and Iowa seem lost for Romney.

He's not winning Wisconsin. The only path to victory I see for Romney is taking Colorado and Virginia, while his cronies somehow steal Ohio.

 

[Baylor]

Mitt Romney is convinced that Republicans will win Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Virginia, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Nevada:

0 for 7. But much more accurate than Karl Rove's prediction.

 

[jj]

Mitt Romney is convinced that Republicans will win Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Virginia, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Nevada:

This I believe, but I doubt it willhave much to do with the will of the voters.

Note: It MAY have something to do with those who actually manage to vote.

 

[Puppycow]

My prediction:

[qimg]http://i625.photobucket.com/albums/tt332/JREFImages/Romney2.png[/qimg]

This looks like a good prediction.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ctions_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

I think there's still some hope for mine though:

Obama 332
Romney 206

Popular vote
Obama 52
Romney 46.5

(ETA: same as 2008 but Obama loses Indiana and North Carolina)

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

If you look at the electoral vote distribution down on the right-hand column, there are two large spikes, one at 303 and another at 332. The one at 332 is actually the largest. Obama would have to win Florida for my prediction to be true.