When will the AE911 petition finally reach juggernaut strength of 1%?

When will the AE911 petition reach juggernaut strength of 1%?

  • 20 years

    Votes: 3 1.4%
  • 50 years

    Votes: 2 0.9%
  • Never

    Votes: 80 36.4%
  • Who cares?….it's retarded anyway.....

    Votes: 135 61.4%

  • Total voters
    220
Red face department. :o :mad:

Naturally this was not what I meant. :(
......like why didn't they choose to start with a dishonest agenda?

...and it should have been:
"...like why did they choose to start with a dishonest agenda? "


...Don't ask - let me blame it on age... ;)
 
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End of month update!

A) Architects and engineers:

Apr 30: 1683
May 31: 1699
...

B) Other Supporters:

Apr 30: 14643
May 31: 14721
...

Mid-month update:

A) Architects and engineers:

May 31: 1699
Jun 15: 1,700

Broke the next century, but that is only 1 new signature in 15 days - if they continue at that pace, it will be their worst month ever. Annual growth 1.44% for the month so far, that's 1 new signature per existing signer once every 69 (!) years. This is worse than stagnation. I suspect though that the verification team is taking another break and that we will see a handful coming in with a few days sometime soon. By the way: They were at 1.701 briefly earlier this month, then dropped back to 1,700.

However: The list of names at http://www2.ae911truth.org/signpetition.php which has last been updated two days ago, has only 1,697 names - they are not really at 1,700 yet!
I had not noticed this discrepancy before, but don't know if it is new.



B) Other Supporters:

May 31: 14,721
Jun 15: 14,758

37 signatures in 15 days is an annual growth rate of 6.30% since the end of last month. This, too, is on pace to becoming their worst month ever: One new signature per existing "member" every 15.9 years.



C) Fundraiser "ESO Fnl Ed World Premiere":

Started Apr 24
Original end date was May 24. Was extended to Jun 20, now again extended, to Jul 13.
Raised $ 3,277.09 with 61 contributions, towards a target of $ 8,400 (39%).
That's $ 63.02 per day, 53.72 per contribution. At this pace, they'll end up 41% short of their target (of course if you extend the end date just long enough, you'll eventually get there).

The most recent contribution was $ 300 - I am at a loss why someone would donate this much to a mere marketing ploy!

Anyway, they are doing better than the most recent fundraisers, but the last two were mostly concurrent - difficult to decide how to treat two concurrent fundraisers and compare them to a single one. Perhaps the most recent two did worse individually because some contributors would split their money on them.
 
... I suspect though that the verification team is taking another break and that we will see a handful coming in with a few days sometime soon. ...

Gotta correct myself on this one. I just compared the full list of 1697 names from june 13th with the same list of june 5th, eight days earlier, and found that there are two new names, and two old ones have been deleted.

So they are verifying signatures, BUT they lost "members" at the same time!
 
Gotta correct myself on this one. I just compared the full list of 1697 names from june 13th with the same list of june 5th, eight days earlier, and found that there are two new names, and two old ones have been deleted.

So they are verifying signatures, BUT they lost "members" at the same time!

hehe.gif


Awesome.

Excellent data research, Oystein.
 
We were talking earlier about AE911T resignations. Just came across this:

http://truthaction.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=50596#50596

"Going through email in reverse order here, I see you posted about this at TA, a few corrections; I retired from the AE board Jan 12 2012, and in general, AE is not good at PR. Many people have tried for a long time to make it better." - Justin Keogh (quoted by Snowcrash).

Did you know about this, Oystein?

ETA: I can't find a profile page for Justin Keogh at http://www.ae911truth.org/ using Google Advanced search. It may have been taken down.
 
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We were talking earlier about AE911T resignations. Just came across this:

http://truthaction.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=50596#50596

"Going through email in reverse order here, I see you posted about this at TA, a few corrections; I retired from the AE board Jan 12 2012, and in general, AE is not good at PR. Many people have tried for a long time to make it better." - Justin Keogh (quoted by Snowcrash).

Did you know about this, Oystein?

ETA: I can't find a profile page for Justin Keogh at http://www.ae911truth.org/ using Google Advanced search. It may have been taken down.

Back in July 2010, there were some slow days on a big geology project in Wyoming. (Nothing to do while the shots went off, except hope you set up all the instruments and recorders properly!).

So, I wrote my first 'bot, in Python, and sent it crawling over AE911Truth to gather info on the opinions of the engineers and architects. I got reams of info.

Here is the part about Justin Keogh:
user id = 999900
Name: Justin Keogh
Title: Physics Student  

Degree:  

Country: USA
Category: Other Supporters and A&E Students
Discipline: Other — Physics/Chemistry
Status: Student
Bio: Student.
Statement: The evidence for the controlled demolition of the World Trade Center Towers and Building 7 is prima facie. Hydrocarbon fires have never, and will never cause skyscrapers to explode top down. The nation was shocked into a state of suspended disbelief by a well funded group of psychological warfare experts.
------------------------------------------------------------

Mostly I used it to see how many of Gage's engineers said the Twin Towers fell inside their own footprint, even though Gage says they fell outside (and WTC 7 fell inside). It was prep for the big Coast-to-Coast AM debate in August 2010.

Hmph.:boggled:
 
We were talking earlier about AE911T resignations. Just came across this:

http://truthaction.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=50596#50596

"Going through email in reverse order here, I see you posted about this at TA, a few corrections; I retired from the AE board Jan 12 2012, and in general, AE is not good at PR. Many people have tried for a long time to make it better." - Justin Keogh (quoted by Snowcrash).

Did you know about this, Oystein?

ETA: I can't find a profile page for Justin Keogh at http://www.ae911truth.org/ using Google Advanced search. It may have been taken down.


A) No, didn't know about that! Seems they don't have a list of board member anywhere, other than their 990 forms which come a year later.

B) AE is not good at PR?? I thought it's the only thing they are good at :D

C) Justin is still listed among the 14000+ other supporters:
http://www2.ae911truth.org/profile.php?uid=999900
 
Thanks, Dave. :)

A) No, didn't know about that! Seems they don't have a list of board member anywhere, other than their 990 forms which come a year later.

Speaking of 990s, I can't connect to guidestar.org. I wanted to check if there'd been any other ones posted.

B) AE is not good at PR?? I thought it's the only thing they are good at :D

"Good" being a relative term. ;)

C) Justin is still listed among the 14000+ other supporters:
http://www2.ae911truth.org/profile.php?uid=999900

Thanks.
 
Speaking of 990s, I can't connect to guidestar.org. I wanted to check if there'd been any other ones posted.

Strange. I have no such problem. No, 2010 is still the most recent.

I have my request in for a copy of 2011 form 990. I suspect they filed for the "automatic 3-month extension" giving them until August 15th to file.

Last year they filed for a second extension but, I would tend to doubt they would do this again (two years in a row) because it's a sure bet the IRS will look more closely at your accounting practices. They tend to frown on non-profits that can't seem to keep their books up to date.

We'll see how this plays out.
 
End of month update!

A) Architects and engineers:

Apr 30: 1683
May 31: 1699

B) Other Supporters:

Apr 30: 14643
May 31: 14721

78 new signatures in 31 days is equivalent to each existing signer convincing one new "member" once every 15.5 years.
The annual growth rate of 6.5% is the worst ever for a single month. The annual growth rate for the second quarter so far (apr+may) is 7.0%, which is also the worst ever. The linear growth rate of 2.721/day in Q2 is the worst for a quarter since Q4/2007.

Ever since june 2007, the relative (annual, exponential) growth rate of the "Other Supporters" has been larger than that of the A&E - until May 2012! I have no explanation for this trend.

Graphics:

B1) Number of signatures, month by month

[qimg]http://i1088.photobucket.com/albums/i328/MikeAlfaromeo/AE911T/2007-20120531OSnumbermonthly.jpg[/qimg]

B2) Linear growth rate (new signatures per 100 days), quarter by quarter (the average for each quarter is plotted at the end of the period)

[qimg]http://i1088.photobucket.com/albums/i328/MikeAlfaromeo/AE911T/2007-20120531OSlineargrowthquarterly.jpg[/qimg]

B3) Exponential annual growth rate, quarter by quarter (the average for each quarter is plotted at the end of the period)

[qimg]http://i1088.photobucket.com/albums/i328/MikeAlfaromeo/AE911T/2007-20120531OSexponentialgrowthquarterly.jpg[/qimg]

B4) Growth rates year by year (from june to may)

[qimg]http://i1088.photobucket.com/albums/i328/MikeAlfaromeo/AE911T/2007-20120531OSexplingrowthyearly.jpg[/qimg]



And finally a comparison of the development of annual growth of A&E vs. Others in recent months:

[qimg]http://i1088.photobucket.com/albums/i328/MikeAlfaromeo/AE911T/201105-201205AEOSexponentialgrowthmonthly.jpg[/qimg]

End of month update!

A) Architects and engineers:

May 31: 1699
Jun 30: 1701

2 new signatures in 30 days is equivalent to each existing signer convincing one peer once every 69.3 years. Scott Sommers asked a while ago what growth rate would constitute a virtual stand-still. This is it: Signers must be dying at a faster rate than new ones coming in!
The annual growth rate of 1.44% is the worst ever, last month, May (11.8%) was the second-best since last fall. I suspect that the verification team hasn't been active much and may have a small stack of unverified signatures waiting to make the list. The list has been updated only two or three times this month - they usually do that a few times a week.
The annual growth rate for the second quarter is 5.6%, which is the worst ever. The linear growth rate of 0.736/day in Q2 is the worst for a quarter since Q4/2007.

The list by the way does NOT have 1701 names - it has only 1699 names, but I don't know since when there has been a discrepancy between the official count and the actual number of names.


B) Other Supporters:

May 31: 14,721
Jun 30: 14,804

83 new signatures in 30 days is equivalent to each existing signer convincing one new "member" once every 14.1 years.
The annual growth rate of 7.1% is slightly better than last month's all-time low of 6.5%, but the second-worst ever (there were two months with zero and negative growth in the early days - those can't count). The annual growth rate for the second quarter is 7.1%, which is the worst ever. The linear growth rate of 2.736/day in Q2 is the worst for a quarter since Q4/2007.



My internet connection is very bad today, I can't upload new graphics. I hope I can do that tomorrow.
 
By the way,

I only now discovered that all A&E signers with their Bio and Personal Statements are listed here:

http://www2.ae911truth.org/supporters.php
With three links to
It seems that, within each subcategory, these are ordered by date of signature, with the newest entries at the bottom. This list sometimes lags behind the by some days; right now, it is current as of perhaps late may, with 1697 names. The "official", linked-to list of signers at http://www2.ae911truth.org/signpetition.php is of june 27th and has 1699 names, on the front page they currently advertise 1706 A&E. This number is probably a miscount, was 1701 when the list was updated on june 27th, so 2 too much.


They used to also list all "Other Supporters" until probably sometime in 2009, when the list became too long to handle properly. The last capture on the WayBackMachine was on 02/21/2009:
http://web.archive.org/web/20090221071723/http://www.ae911truth.org/supporters.php?g=_ALL_



Found a cutie by the way:
http://www2.ae911truth.org/profile.php?uid=998388
:o
 
Update halfway through the month:

A) Architects and engineers:

Jun 30: 1701
Jul 16: 1702

Interestingly, a couple of days ago they had increased to 1706, after the number had remained steady at 1701 for weeks, but then corrected down to 1702. Not sure what happened there. As I saif earlier, the 1701 by jun 30th wasn't true, the full listing had only 1699 names. Perhaps they corrected that, but the full listing has not yet been updated, it's still the june 27th version with 1699 names. Perhaps a couple of professionals asked them to be taken off of the list? I'll find out as soon as the list gets updated!

Only 1 new signature in the first 16 days of july is of course on track to becoming their worst month ever, and will continue a downward trend into its fourth month in a row...

2007-20120716AElineargrowthquarterly.jpg


...and third year in a row:

2007-20120716AEexplingrowthyearly.jpg

(years are from june to may, as the petition started in may 2007)


B) Other Supporters:

Jun 30: 14,804
Jul 16: 14,839

Only 35 new signers in 16 day, that's is equivalent to each existing signer convincing one new "member" once every 18.1 years.
The annual growth rate of 5.5% is also on course to become the worst ever (there were two months with zero and negative growth in the early days - those can't count).

This continues a trend that has been going on for three years now...

2007-20120716OSexplingrowthyearly.jpg


... and the fourth quarter in a row:

2007-20120716OSlineargrowthquarterly.jpg



Comparing A&E professionals and Other Supporters (non-professionals)

The linear growth rate (number of signatures par day, or year...) of the two groups can't be compared, because obviously the larger group of "other supporters" has a much higher count. The annual growth rate in % however is a comparable figure. It is interesting to note that the group of non-professional signers has always been growing faster than the group of professionals, in every year since 2007...

2007-20120716AEOSexponentialgrowthyearly.jpg


...every quarter since Q3/2007 (Q1/2009 had both almost equal, but in that quarter, a lot of formerly "other supporters" were upgraded to "A&E professionals" when they relaxed their criteria)

2007-20120716AEOSexponentialgrowthquarterly.jpg


...and 8 out of the last 10 months:

201010-20120716AEOSexponentialgrowthmonthly.jpg


This trend clearly indicates that non-professionals fall for AE911Lies more easily than professionals - a condemning sign for the acceptance of their claims among those who matter to them!
 
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The latest AE911Truth fundraiser ended on June 13th
This one: "ESO Fnl Ed World Premiere" to "Fund mktg/venue costs for multi-city cross-country tour for the final edition".

It raised US$ 4087.09 in 76 days towards a target of $ 8.400 (49%), from 79 contributions. That's $ 53.78/day, and $ 51,74.
Originally, this fundraiser was scheduled to run from april 24th to may 24th, but was extended twice, to june 20th and then to july 13th, apparently to coincide (roughly) with the end of the Richard Gage promo tour that ended on july 11th, that this fundraiser was supposed to help finance.


There were earlier fundraising campaigns in december-february and in april/may. In april/may, they had 2 campaigns at mostly the same time; both started on march 3rd, but one ran through march 24th*) and the other throuh april 8th. The former had 15 contributors, the latter 28. It seems reasonable to suppose that some of these contributors gave money to both campaigns, so the actual number of contributors to these two concurrent fundraisers was anywhere between 28 (assuming that all 15 who contributed to the former also contributed to the latter) and 43 (assuming that none did).


The following table lists the fundamentals of these fundraisers:

Period | # of days | # of contributors | US$ raised | $ per day | $ per contrib.
Dec'11 – Feb'12|68|95|10,084.61|148.30|106.15
Mar'12 – Apr'12 (2 Fundraisers)|36|28-43|2,134.11|59.28|49.63-76.22
Apr'12 – Jul'12|80|79|4,087.09|51.09|51.74
Average | 61 | 67-72 | 5,435 | 86.22 | 69.17-78.04


The following graphic shows these values, expressed as percent-values of their respective averages. Since the number of contributors in the second period has a range, I show the min and max as pale purple dasged lines, and some mid-point estimate in strong purple dashed. As a consequence, the dollars/contributor have a range, the max and min of which are schown as pale orange solid line, and a mid-point estimate in strong orange.

Fundraisers201112-201207.jpg


This shows, as would be expected, that the longer a fundraising campaign runs (green dotted line), the more contributors it has (purple dotted line).
But the sum of dollar contributions per day has been declining (blue solid line), and quite probably the average dollar contribution per person is also declining (orange solid line).




*) This fundraiser originally ended with 15 contributions for $879,11 (19% of target) - it now shows 16 contributions for 100% of target plus 11 cents. Obviously, it has been "pimped" after the fundraiser ended
 
It's a good thing Gage owns this organisation. You would expect his job to be on the line as an under-performing assets.

What am I saying. His target audience doesn't care about this. As long as he keeps that AIA after his name, that's what they're really paying for.

:rolleyes:
 
Update halfway through the month:

A) Architects and engineers:

Jun 30: 1701
Jul 16: 1702

Interestingly, a couple of days ago they had increased to 1706, after the number had remained steady at 1701 for weeks, but then corrected down to 1702. Not sure what happened there. As I said earlier, the 1701 by jun 30th wasn't true, the full listing had only 1699 names. Perhaps they corrected that, but the full listing has not yet been updated, it's still the june 27th version with 1699 names. Perhaps a couple of professionals asked them to be taken off of the list? I'll find out as soon as the list gets updated!
...

They updated the list of petition signers today, and realtity is even worse:

They are down by one, from 1699 three weeks ago to 1698 today:
http://www2.ae911truth.org/signpetition.php

Two former signers have been taken off of the list:
Both had been on the list since some time between may 2008 and may 2009.

And one architect has newly signed up:



So, again:
  • When they reported 1701 A&E at the end of june, they actually only had 1699
  • They now report an increase by 1, to 1702, but actually had a net decrease by one (-2+1), to 1698
AE911truth can not only not do engineering, now they can't even count!
 

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