When will the AE911 petition finally reach juggernaut strength of 1%?

[Oystein]

Update at the end of the month:

1. Architects & Engineers

mar 31: 1,678
apr 30: 1,683
5 signatures in 30 days, which is 1 new A&E professional convinced by every one of the already existing A&E once every 27.1 years. This rate is very close now to the rate at which architecture and engineering graduates enter (and leave) the work force, assuming an average professional career lasts something like 35 years. That's nearly a stall then.
The exponential growth rate of 3.69% is the worst value for a single month on record yet for ae911t. To compare to recent months, as far as I have data:
...

2. Other Supporters:

mar 31: 14,555
apr 30: 14,643
88 new signatures in 30 days, which is 1 new Other Supporter convinced by every one of the already existing OS once every 13.1 years
The exponential growth rate of 7.61% is the worst value for a single month on record yet for ae911t. To compare to recent months, as far as I have data:

...

3. Fundraiser "ESO Fnl Ed World Premiere"

Apr 30: Raised $534.11 of the target $8,400 (6%), with 7 contributions ($76.30 per contribution, $89.02 per day). Started apr 24 , ends may 24. At this pace, with 24 days to go, they'll end up 68% short of their target.


The last fundraisers attracted less than $50 per day in donations. So this one has started relatively well, despite being on pace to yet another clearly failed target.

The fundraiser is at its midterm - 15 of 30 days are over. So a brief update:

3. Fundraiser "ESO Fnl Ed World Premiere"

May 09: Raised $1001.09 of the target $8,400 (12%), with 23 contributions ($43.53 per contribution, $66.74 per day). Started apr 24 , ends may 24. At this pace, with 15 days to go, they'll end up 76% short of their target.


1. Architects & Engineers

apr 30: 1,683
may 09: 1,683

They are down by 1 since april 15th!


2. Other Supporters:

apr 30: 14,643
may 09: 14,671

That's so far on pace to just barely beat last months record low for growth rate (3.1/day vs. 2.9/day, or 8.1% annually vs. 7.6%)




(I composed this post yesterday, but for some reason never hit "Submit". Contributions are up today but signatures not; I leave the post as is, as of yesterday, and will do another update on may 16th, halfway through the month)

 

[cjnewson88]

Thanks once again Oystein!

 

[ComsatAngel2017]

A week's not a week unless it has some number-crunchy Oystein goodness in it!

I don't know if you get any feeback from your labour of love, Oystein, but I like it.

(Mr Gage's view may vary!)

 

[DGM]

(Mr Gage's view may vary!)

Real non-profits and organisations actually pay money for what he's done. It helps them refine their strategies.

Oystein, I'll send Dick a note suggesting he hires you as a "consultant".

 

[Oystein]

Real non-profits and organisations actually pay money for what he's done. It helps them refine their strategies.

Oystein, I'll send Dick a note suggesting he hires you as a "consultant".

Drop the quote marks from "consultant" - I am a consultant, and I often do this kind of data mining to identify problems, or help customers set priorities, or determine that actual scope and size of a project (example: T-Mobile, Germany's largest mobile phone service provider, rolled out a new operating system and standard software suite to all their employees' computers in Germany. I knew all along that they over-estimated the number of computers actually in service by about 5000. Because of this, managment worried three weeks before the scheduled end of the project because we seemed to be far off the target that I had computed. But we finished precisely on the scheduled end date, and within 2% of budget, because I had drawn the plan using good data mining heuristics).

 

[DGM]

Drop the quote marks from "consultant" - I am a consultant, .

I meant no offence to you. You would actually be the only professional they had,(with the real classification)

.

 

[Oystein]

I meant no offence to you. You would actually be the only professional they had,(with the real classification)

.

Oh don't worry it wasn't offensive, just wanted to explain where I am coming from.

I wouldn't say they don't have any "professionals", or that my qualifications would be better than theirs. Most of them, I presume do have professions, many have college degrees. Having certain qualifications doesn't necessarily protect you though from making idiotic claims, whether out of stupidity, dishonesty or mental health problems.

 

[Oystein]

Update at the end of the month:

1. Architects & Engineers

mar 31: 1,678
apr 30: 1,683
5 signatures in 30 days, which is 1 new A&E professional convinced by every one of the already existing A&E once every 27.1 years. This rate is very close now to the rate at which architecture and engineering graduates enter (and leave) the work force, assuming an average professional career lasts something like 35 years. That's nearly a stall then.
The exponential growth rate of 3.69% is the worst value for a single month on record yet for ae911t. To compare to recent months, as far as I have data:

Apr 2012: 3.69% (mar 31 - apr 30)
Mar 2012: 4.89% (feb 28 - mar 31)
Feb 2012: 8.37% (jan 29 - feb 28)
Jan 2012: 12.17% (jan 04 - jan 29)
Dec 2011: 6.97% (dec 02 - jan 04)
Nov 2011: 6.07% (oct 25 - dec 02)
Oct 2011: 22.38% (sep 27 - oct 25)
All the time before that, growth rate 20% and more.


2. Other Supporters:

mar 31: 14,555
apr 30: 14,643
88 new signatures in 30 days, which is 1 new Other Supporter convinced by every one of the already existing OS once every 13.1 years
The exponential growth rate of 7.61% is the worst value for a single month on record yet for ae911t. To compare to recent months, as far as I have data:

Apr 2012: 7.61% (mar 31 - apr 30)
Mar 2012: 9.56% (feb 28 - mar 31))
Feb 2012: 13.65% (jan 29 - feb 28)
Jan 2012: 11.84% (jan 04 - jan 29)
Dec 2011: 16.47% (dec 02 - jan 04)
Nov 2011: 30.22% (oct 25 - dec 02)
Oct 2011: 34.28% (sep 27 - oct 25)


3. Fundraiser "ESO Fnl Ed World Premiere"

Apr 30: Raised $534.11 of the target $8,400 (6%), with 7 contributions ($76.30 per contribution, $89.02 per day). Started apr 24 , ends may 24. At this pace, with 24 days to go, they'll end up 68% short of their target.


The last fundraisers attracted less than $50 per day in donations. So this one has started relatively well, despite being on pace to yet another clearly failed target.

Update at mid-month: AE911T is showing unexpected signs of life!

1. Architects & Engineers

apr 30: 1,683
may 16: 1,692
9 signatures in 16 days, which is 1 new A&E professional convinced by every one of the already existing A&E once every 7.7 years.
The exponential growth rate of almost 13% would be the best value for a single month since october, if it could be sustained. But I doubt that. All 9 signatures were added within the last 7 days, before that, there was a net loss of 1 over the course of more than 3 weeks.

I believe they had a backlog of professional signatures that they could not process and verify for a week. I have said several times that the departure of Brian Romanoff, following the Nation of Islam event, hurt them in that department, as he was heading the verification team (or perhaps it wasn't even a team). This job seems to have been taken over now by Sean Brizendine (do we know anything about him?), and it appears they are working on that backlog. So it seems possible that the April numbers were lower than reality, while the current burst looks higher than reality. April and may together exhibit an annual growth rate of 6.8% and a linear growth rate of 0.30 signatures per day - both are worse than the first quarter of 2012 which already was their worst ever quarter with 8.1% and 0.36/day.

This hypothesis of a backlog in verifying professional credentials gets some incidental corroboration from the next numbers: "Other Supporters" ar still in decline.


2. Other Supporters:

apr 30: 14,643
may 16: 14,690
47 new signatures in 16 days, which is 1 new Other Supporter convinced by every one of the already existing OS once every 13.2 years
The exponential growth rate of 7.59% would be the worst value for a single month on record yet for ae911t, if sustained till the end of the month.


3. Fundraiser "ESO Fnl Ed World Premiere"

May 16: Raised $1,636.09 of the target $8,400 (19%), with 29 contributions ($56.42 per contribution, $74.37 per day). Started apr 24 , originally scheduled to end may 24, extended to jun 20. At this pace, with 35 days to go, they'll end up 50% short of their target.

The last fundraisers attracted less than $50 per day in donations. So this one is doing relatively well, despite being on pace to yet another clearly failed target.


Upcoming promotion tour

Gage will kick-off a 30-city tour of the USA to promote the abominable "Experts speak out" DVD next week. Schedule can be found here:
http://expertsspeakout.eventbrite.com/

It shall be interesting to see how this affects "performance"!

 

[cjnewson88]

One thing which I speculate about their fund raisers is that because the duration is so long, assuming most people get paid fortnightly (beneficiary cheques roll out weekly.. ), multiple people are probably donating two if not three (maybe more) times. Not to mention it's probably the same people who are funding every fund raiser.

Just speculation of course, but food for thought.
Thanks for another update Oystein!

 

[Orphia Nay]

I love it when I see this thread has been updated by Oystein!

Sean Brizendine? Here's his AE911T profile:
http://www2.ae911truth.org/profile.php?uid=988978

Bio:

I was born and raised in California, some college, worked in restaurants, hotels, events centers and aviation litigation services, volunteer.

Personal 9/11 Statement:

The evidence suggests that buildings 1, 2 and 7 were most likely brought down in some form of explosive controlled demolition.

The peer reviewed paper by an International Team of Scientists regarding the discovery of Nanothermite in the dust is very compelling.

More about him here:

http://www.ae911truth.org/de/news/314-volunteers-keep-the-wheels-turning-at-ae911truth.html

Sean Brizendine is from Santa Rosa, CA and is the Verification Team Leader. Sean notes:

I joined Architects & Engineers for 9/11 Truth as a volunteer on the Verifications Team in August 2009. Over the last 10 months I have worked with some of the most amazing individuals I have met in my life, including Richard Gage, AIA. My team has been responsible for the verification of over 500 A/E's, and more than 3,000 "other" supporters. We go to great lengths to verify the credentials of all A/E's, foreign and domestic, and take great pride in establishing the legitimacy of their verified status.

Sean likes to work as part of a team. He says of this:

We encourage everyone that signs the petition to get involved with us as a volunteer and to become a Sustaining Supporter (those who give monthly financial contributions). We work as a team and make decisions as such. We encourage feedback and welcome debate. I am truly grateful to be a part of something that in my opinion is the most important issue of our era. Our volunteers come from all different parts of the world, with different cultures and political views, but the one thing that we all have in common is AE911Truth.

A couple of things I think are of note in that. He was the verification team leader. After Romanoff's departure, the leader has to do the manual updates. This appears to mean a lack of other staff.

Also, he was advocating people become sustaining members. Perhaps quite a few are, or perhaps they realised how important those members are to Gage's bread and butter.

Just some thoughts.

 

[Oystein]

...
A couple of things I think are of note in that. He was the verification team leader. After Romanoff's departure, the leader has to do the manual updates. This appears to mean a lack of other staff.
...

I was under the impression that Romanoff was indeed the actual operator of the verification team. I am trying to keep a close eye on exactly what changes happen there. I sometimes extract a list of all A&E signers so I could figure out which new additions, deaprtures and changes they have. Maybe I'll try to contact a few of the latest additions to figure out who replied to them, and when they filled out the form.

 

[Oystein]

One thing which I speculate about their fund raisers is that because the duration is so long, assuming most people get paid fortnightly (beneficiary cheques roll out weekly.. ), multiple people are probably donating two if not three (maybe more) times. Not to mention it's probably the same people who are funding every fund raiser.

Just speculation of course, but food for thought.
Thanks for another update Oystein!

Is that speculation based on anything?

Sure, it is possible to "pimp" such a fundraiser. In fact, one of the past ones ended very much short of target, but a few days later showed as having almost reached its target, so there must have been one large contribution to fill the gap, and that likely was an act of deliberate pimping.
Perhaps somebody has an eye on this very thread, reads my predictions of doom, and works actively to make them look better. Perhaps.

As for people contribiting more than once to a fundraiser - perhaps, but doesn't matter much. Most will contribute only once.

As for fundraisers being contributed by the same people over again: Yes, no doubt some more affluent and dedicated supporters will do that; those are then not limited by fortnightly paychecks.

 

[Oystein]

Update at mid-month: AE911T is showing unexpected signs of life!

2. Other Supporters:

apr 30: 14,643
may 16: 14,690
47 new signatures in 16 days, which is 1 new Other Supporter convinced by every one of the already existing OS once every 13.2 years
The exponential growth rate of 7.59% would be the worst value for a single month on record yet for ae911t, if sustained till the end of the month.


3. Fundraiser "ESO Fnl Ed World Premiere"

May 16: Raised $1,636.09 of the target $8,400 (19%), with 29 contributions ($56.42 per contribution, $74.37 per day). Started apr 24 , originally scheduled to end may 24, extended to jun 20. At this pace, with 35 days to go, they'll end up 50% short of their target.

The last fundraisers attracted less than $50 per day in donations. So this one is doing relatively well, despite being on pace to yet another clearly failed target.

Mini update, as the current fundraiser was originally scheduled to end yesterday:

3. Fundraiser "ESO Fnl Ed World Premiere"

May 24: Raised $1,827.09 of the target $8,400 (22%), with 36 contributions ($50.75 per contribution, $60.90 per day). Started apr 24 , originally scheduled to end may 24, extended to jun 20. At this pace, with 27 days to go, they'll end up 59% short of their target.

The last fundraisers attracted less than $50 per day in donations. So this one is doing relatively well, despite being on pace to yet another clearly failed target. It has been losing steam though since the last update 8 days earlier.

(May 25, today: one more contribution of $30 has decreased the averages further)


1. Architects & Engineers

may 16: 1,692
may 25: 1,698
6 signatures in 9 days, which is 1 new A&E professional convinced by every one of the already existing A&E once every 6.5 years.
The exponential growth rate since end of april is of almost 14%. This would be the best value for a single month since october, if it could be sustained.


2. Other Supporters:

may 16: 14,690
may 25: 14,708
18 new signatures in 9 days, which is 1 new Other Supporter convinced by every one of the already existing OS once every 19.6 years
The exponential growth rate of 6.68% for the month of may so far would be the worst value for a single month on record yet for ae911t, if sustained till the end of the month.

 

[Oystein]

For some reason I never thought of running ae911truth.org through the way-back machine, but I did today, extracting historical signature numbers for most months since may 2007.

And made new graphics:

A) Architects and engineers:

...
B) Other Supporters:

...

As I had expected, their strongest period was from mid-2009 to the first quarter of 2010, and since the last quarte of 2011 they are reaching for ever newer lows. The 1600+ they have had since last september convince fewer peers each month than the 230 they had at the end of 2007. This development is much worse among the professionals than among the amateurs. Very telling!

End of month update!

A) Architects and engineers:

Apr 30: 1683
May 31: 1699

16 new signatures in 31 days is equivalent to each existing signer convincing one peer once every 8.5 years.
The annual growth rate of 11.8% is the best since January (12.2% then) and a significant improvement over last month, April (3.7%). I suspect the main reason is that they had several weeks in april and perhaps march when they didn't verify any new A&E; between april 16 and april 30, they lost 1 signature! It seems that much of the backlog was finally attended to in May. The annual growth rate for the second quarter so far (apr+may) is 7.7%, which is worse than last quarter's (jan-mar) 8.1%, the previous record low. (The same is true for the linear growth rate: 0.344/day in Q2, versus 0.356/day in Q1). This lowest linear growth rate ever reveals once again that there is no organic growth at all - the A&E professionals who so far fell for Gage's lies fail completely to convince any peers at all.

New graphics:

A1) Number of signatures, month by month

A2) Linear growth rate (new signatures per 100 days), quarter by quarter (the average for each quarter is plotted at the end of the period)

A3) Exponential annual growth rate, quarter by quarter (the average for each quarter is plotted at the end of the period)

A4) Growth rates year by year (from june to may)

B) Other Supporters:

Apr 30: 14643
May 31: 14721

78 new signatures in 31 days is equivalent to each existing signer convincing one new "member" once every 15.5 years.
The annual growth rate of 6.5% is the worst ever for a single month. The annual growth rate for the second quarter so far (apr+may) is 7.0%, which is also the worst ever. The linear growth rate of 2.721/day in Q2 is the worst for a quarter since Q4/2007.

Ever since june 2007, the relative (annual, exponential) growth rate of the "Other Supporters" has been larger than that of the A&E - until May 2012! I have no explanation for this trend.

Graphics:

B1) Number of signatures, month by month

B2) Linear growth rate (new signatures per 100 days), quarter by quarter (the average for each quarter is plotted at the end of the period)

B3) Exponential annual growth rate, quarter by quarter (the average for each quarter is plotted at the end of the period)

B4) Growth rates year by year (from june to may)

And finally a comparison of the development of annual growth of A&E vs. Others in recent months:

 

[Oystein]

Could somebody please check whether I have the right numbers for the current "ESO Fnl Ed World Premiere" fundraiser, which you find on the left and near the top of http://ae911truth.org/en.html ? I sometimes have trouble getting a current update due to caching or something:

Raised $2207,09 of the target $8400 (26%) with 42 contributions. Started April 24 (37 days ago), Ends June 20.

This is so far actual a slight improvement over the last 2 fundraisers, even taken together. I'll post an analysis and some graphics tomorrow.

 

[Oystein]

By the way: The Petition started in May 2007 (don't know the exact day), so they had their 5th anniversary this month!

 

[ozeco41]

By the way: The Petition started in May 2007 (don't know the exact day), so they had their 5th anniversary this month!

What is significant about that date is that it is at least one or two years after any reasoned "CD at WTC" arguments had been answered "No CD."

So the AE911 petition was known to be untruthful from the outset.

Several issues flow from that bit of reality...

...like why didn't they choose to start with a dishonest agenda? There is no room for the excuse "we genuinely didn't know any better at the time...."

 

[Orphia Nay]

Thanks again, Oystein.

I'm wondering how many structural engineers they have now. I had a list from a couple of years ago, but I think it's on my dead computer.

 

[Oystein]

Thanks again, Oystein.

I'm wondering how many structural engineers they have now. I had a list from a couple of years ago, but I think it's on my dead computer.

My most recent exact tally was beginning of february; they had 303 Professional Engineers (licensed) then, 142 of which self-identify as civil or structural engineers. I don't have a full count, but estimate about 25^*) with a license as Structural Engineer

Per May 14th, they had 311 PEs (+9-1 = +8), with +4 civil engineers, and still about 25 structural engineers.




*) 14 were structural engineers by degree. 7 of these also have a license as S.E., 2 don't, and 5 I had not verified; I assume these 5 have proper licenses, so that group is 12 strong. In addition, I found 11 with an S.E. license who "originally" have degrees or licenses in other fields. Since I had not checked the licenses of about 25% of all engineers, one might estimate another 3 licensed S.E.s, for a total of 12+11+3=25

 

[Orphia Nay]

Thanks, Oystein.

That 25 number rings a bell from back then.