When will the AE911 petition finally reach juggernaut strength of 1%?

[ozeco41]

...That's all. Oh, and abusing the voluneer effort of a handful disciples...

I haven't raised the quandary of that inner circle so far. Recall that the Gage outfit is really only Gage and his inner circle cronies. The people making up his thousands of signatures have essentially a one off minimal contact. Then the fan club of attendees - who are probably the same people or a lot of overlap with the petition signers.

But the inner circle of cronies must be aware of the scam which means that they are either intellectually or ethically limited. Deluded probably fits in there somehow.

...eco, I am not sure Iran is such a big problem for this political fringe. Enemy of my enemy etc.

Yes - my previous comments focused only on commercial pragmatism.

 

[Oystein]

A fundraiser has ended today - time to check the stats at AE911twoof again:

Update at the end of the month:

1. Architects & Engineers

feb 28: 1671
mar 31: 1,678

2. Other Supporters:

feb 28: 14,439
mar 31: 14,555
...
4. Fundraiser "Eleven-City Canada Tour"

Mar 31: Raised $975 of the target $3,200 (30%), with 22 contributions ($44.32 per contribution, $34.82 per day). Started mar 03, ends apr 08. At this pace, with 8 days to go, they'll end up 61% short of their target.

A&E:
mar 31: 1,678
apr 08: 1,681
3 new in 8 days = 8.5% annual growth

OS:
mar 31: 14,555
apr 08: 14,585
30 new in 8 days = 9.9% annual growth

Fundraiser "Eleven-City Canada Tour"
Mar 31: Raised $975 of the target $3,200 (30%), with 22 contributions
Apr 08: Raised $1,255 of the target $3,200 (39%), with 278 contributions. Ended today, apr 08, after 36 days. That's $34.86 / day, and $44.82 / contributor.

For comparison:

• Fundraiser "BFT Digital Distribution": mar 03 - mar 24, raised $41.86 per day, $58.60 per contributor
• Fundraiser "Edit/Mktg AE911Truth DVDs" ca. dec 08 - feb 14, raised ca. $148 / day, $106.15 / contributor

I predict that the next fundraiser will have an even more modest target (<$2,500), and raise less than $30 / day, less thanb $40 / contributor.

 

[carlitos]

his dealings with NOI.

If you tried the bean pies, you would know about NOI truth.

I predict that the next fundraiser will have an even more modest target (<$2,500), and raise less than $30 / day, less thanb $40 / contributor.

Beats working, I guess.

 

[BasqueArch]

If you tried the bean pies, you would know about NOI truth.

Beats working, I guess.

Just a thought.
Instead of selling pies and papers why don't NoI and Jehovah Witnesses take all those nonpaid street volunteers and start a business with no labor costs. The profits would be huge.
There's a disconnect between producing something of consumer value and religion.

Why doesn't AE911T take the 400K per year and the many volunteer engineers and produce something of engineering value. There's a disconnect between producing something of engineering value and religion.
AE911T produces Gage income not engineering value.
It's not about producing something of engineering value, it's about producing religious self-satisfaction.

 

[Orphia Nay]

$30 to $40 a day isn't going to keep Richard in food, let alone tours.

 

[Oystein]

Halfway through the month of april, a quick mini-update:

A&E: 1,684 - 6 new in 15 day (0.4/day)
Others: 14,607 - 52 new in 15 days (3.47/day)

Professionals so far doong twice as well as last months

 

[cjnewson88]

Love your perseverance Oystein

Keep up the good work.

 

[Oystein]

A fundraiser has ended today ...

Fundraiser "Eleven-City Canada Tour"
Mar 31: Raised $975 of the target $3,200 (30%), with 22 contributions
Apr 08: Raised $1,255 of the target $3,200 (39%), with 278 contributions. Ended today, apr 08, after 36 days. That's $34.86 / day, and $44.82 / contributor.

For comparison:

• Fundraiser "BFT Digital Distribution": mar 03 - mar 24, raised $41.86 per day, $58.60 per contributor
• Fundraiser "Edit/Mktg AE911Truth DVDs" ca. dec 08 - feb 14, raised ca. $148 / day, $106.15 / contributor

I predict that the next fundraiser will have an even more modest target (<$2,500), and raise less than $30 / day, less thanb $40 / contributor.

Ah a new fundraiser is on the starting page of ae911twoof:
http://widget.chipin.com/widget/id/5e2c34580aa60847

• Fundraiser "ESO Fnl Ed World Premiere": apr 24 - may 24, raised $200 so far (2 contributors) towards a goal of US$ 8,400 to "Fund mktg/venue costs for multi-city cross-country tour for the final edition"

Sooo I was wrong with my first prediction
They want to raise $8,400 in 30 days or $280/day. I say the'll not even make $1,000.



And while we are at it, just for the kicks:

Halfway through the month of april, a quick mini-update:

[apr 15]
A&E: 1,684 - 6 new in 15 day (0.4/day)
Others: 14,607 - 52 new in 15 days (3.47/day)

Professionals so far doong twice as well as last months

apr 26
A&E: 1,683 - 1 lost in 11 days (-0.09/day)!
Others: 14,639 - 32 new in 11 days (2.9/day)

Both figures are on a pace to set a new record for lowest growth rate over the course of the calender month. After the last month (march) already broke both records with clear margins, I didn't expect to see 2 new records this month - there has always been some short-term up and down despite the overall downward trend - but it seems possible now that they are even losing professional signatures over a substantial number of days.

 

[Scott Sommers]

As the resident expert on AE9/11T funding, do you have any opinions on this?

I just wanted to add something that I don't believe has been mentioned here, and that is the option on AE911T's website for an automatic monthly donation charged to a person's credit card. This may get more into the psychology of trutherism that you are interested in, Scott. Looking at the numbers, it would only take 100 donors at $50 to raise $5000/month; a small amount for someone wishing to support "The Cause". 250 donors is $12,500/month. There could be some, a handful, who could donate much more; $100....$250 per month as their contribution. In the heyday of "Inside Job" fanaticism I could easily see quite a number of people signing up for these monthly donations.

And then we get into the psychology of someone wishing to discontinue these donations; would that be an admission on their part of the failure of trutherism, ie. their own time wasted? This may be a hard hurdle for someone to overcome. Also, it raises the question of how one would actually get these donations stopped; can you simply call visa or would you have to request AE911T to stop processing the donation? If the latter, for some, that may be a very hard phone call to make. And for those that can bring themselves to make the request, I'm sure AE911T have a very good deflection plan in place to talk people out of this. A lot could be played on the minds of these people about "how close we are to exposing the truth!".

So, like you Scott, I very much thought that AE911T was on the financial decline. Their special projects fundraising are good evidence of this. That's why I was so shocked to learn of their $400K in donations through 2010. I just didn't see the evidence of people continuing their support of this organization, and these monthly donations may be the answer. I think 2011, which will hopefully be filed in a few months, and 2012 will be very telling of the survivability of Gage and AE911T. We already see them branching into other areas and I don't think shilling for Iran is any crazier than appealing to The Nation of Islam!

 

[cjnewson88]

Another fund raiser? Really? My goodness Gage is really trying to squeeze all he can before his followers abandon him..

apr 26
A&E: 1,683 - 1 lost in 11 days (-0.09/day)!

HA!

Needed something to cheer me up. Wow. I wonder what Gage would say..

Again, great work Oystein.

 

[Oystein]

As the resident expert on AE9/11T funding, do you have any opinions on this?

My reply is over there

Another fund raiser? Really? My goodness Gage is really trying to squeeze all he can before his followers abandon him..

Yep. I am out on a limb with my prediction of further declining returns on these fundraisers, after having tracked only 3, which is far from a valid statistical basis, but in conjunction with some reasonable assumptions like a positive correlation between new signers and new funds, and a waning of effectiveness of milking the cow that's already failing targets, I feel rather safe.

HA!

Needed something to cheer me up. Wow. I wonder what Gage would say..

Again, great work Oystein.

It's not the first time that a signer has been taken off of the list. For example, in April 2011 they had 279 Professional Engineers. By February 2012, ca. 30 new ones had signed up, but a handful (around 5) were dropped. It's also not the first time they haven't had any new A&E signatures over a course of more than 10 days. This could simply reflect a temporary inaction of Gage's backoffice which checks signatures before they are added to the number and published.

Remember Brian Romanoff, who used to be in charge of managing the list and verifying licenses, has left them, and perhaps whoever does hos job now just didn't get around to checking licenses for a week.

Remember also that sometime last year I filled out their petition form where I clearly stated that I did not support it and only tested whether they actually check newbees, and it took a while (weeks) until I got a friendly reply from Brian that I was rejected.

 

[Oystein]

• Fundraiser "ESO Fnl Ed World Premiere": apr 24 - may 24, raised $200 so far (2 contributors) towards a goal of US$ 8,400 to "Fund mktg/venue costs for multi-city cross-country tour for the final edition"

apr 26
A&E: 1,683 - 1 lost in 11 days (-0.09/day)!
Others: 14,639 - 32 new in 11 days (2.9/day)
...

A day later, apr 27, I am smiling:

Fundraiser: raised $309.11 so far (3 contributors) - so one single contrib was $109.11. Oooh the symbolism! Pathetic

A&E: 1,682 - 1 more lost in 1 days
Others: 14,641 - 2 new in 1 day

 

[Orphia Nay]

A day later, apr 27, I am smiling:

Fundraiser: raised $309.11 so far (3 contributors) - so one single contrib was $109.11. Oooh the symbolism! Pathetic

A&E: 1,682 - 1 more lost in 1 days
Others: 14,641 - 2 new in 1 day

Also, it appears as if someone is keeping a tally in the absence of Brian Romanoff, since the list of names is being edited.

 

[slowsmile]

A day later, apr 27, I am smiling:

Fundraiser: raised $309.11 so far (3 contributors) - so one single contrib was $109.11. Oooh the symbolism! Pathetic

A&E: 1,682 - 1 more lost in 1 days
Others: 14,641 - 2 new in 1 day

Meanwhile over at AE911truth they've prepared a letter for the believers to send out;

http://www.ae911truth.org/en/news-s...ailable-download-and-distribute-it-today.html

which describes AE911 truth as "fast growing"

http://ae911truth.org/downloads/AE911Truth-Intro.pdf

And they describe Europe as a country...............

 

[Allen773]

argumentem ad 1 percentem

 

[Nick Terry]

I'm going to be a curmudgeon and predict that Gage will be able to make a bit of a living off this scam for a little while longer. That's because I was just reminded of figures regarding the Institute for Historical Review, which has been essentially a pure 'news feed' site since 2002, and is thus quite comparable in terms of 'output' to AE911Truth.

ae911truth.org currently has an Alexa ranking of 278,000. ihr.org has an Alexa ranking of about 440,000.

You can read the IRS990's for the IHR by downloading them from this blog. They indicate a steady decline in earnings for the IHR between 2005-2009. In 2005, there were $400,000 in donations; in 2009, $140,000.

The mystery, as with AE911Truth, is where the money is coming from. The IHR won a major settlement in the 1990s which ought to have meant it received up to $7 million in an inheritance, but it is really unclear whether this was ever paid over. So it's possible that the $1.2 million earned from 2005-2009 came from a carefully managed inheritance fund, but the steady decline isn't suggestive of lump sums being paid over in instalments.

The IHR also runs an extremely crappy online store selling books and videos, which earned it $230,000 from 2005-2009; they made a $7,000 loss (or invented one for accounting purposes) on selling $18,000 worth of merch in 2009. As with the Truth movement, the poor performance selling merch probably reflects the culture of Free that is endemic to web 2.0.

What makes the IHR rather comparable is it's now essentially a one man operation, like AE911Truth. Mark Weber is the IHR director, and he still pens crappy articles for his news site, does podcasts and appears on a small handful of radio shows. But the IHR has done next to nothing to promote Holocaust denial systematically in recent years, and simply maintains an archive of online books and articles, most of which can be read elsewhere.

The difference is that the IHR could branch out (into news commentary and routine anti-Zionist horsehockey) because its name isn't 100% inextricably linked with the Holocaust, whereas AE911Truth is. Rebranding isn't a realistic option for Gage.

Has anyone really broken down the most recent form 990 for AE911Truth? The impression I'm getting is that they are 'selling' quite a lot, somehow, somewhere, but the sales appear to disappear when you look at other pages.

 

[Oystein]

Interesting post, Nick! What you describe there as IHR as trickling out without completely dying is quite what I would expect for Gage. It may remain a source of supplementary income for a while to come, but I predict he won't be able to live off of it beyond the end of this year.
Has Mark Weber ever made a living from IHR? What's he doing today to pay his bills?
(Actually, I predict that Gage will "close shop" in 2013. I guess that doesn't necessarily mean closing of the website. A website is cheap to maintain. Maybe I should clarify this as "will stop to produce new sales items and to tour to promote them").

I have looked at the items of Gage's 990, but found it difficult and speculative to parse.

 

[Oystein]

Update at the end of the month:

1. Architects & Engineers

mar 31: 1,678
apr 30: 1,683
5 signatures in 30 days, which is 1 new A&E professional convinced by every one of the already existing A&E once every 27.1 years. This rate is very close now to the rate at which architecture and engineering graduates enter (and leave) the work force, assuming an average professional career lasts something like 35 years. That's nearly a stall then.
The exponential growth rate of 3.69% is the worst value for a single month on record yet for ae911t. To compare to recent months, as far as I have data:

Apr 2012: 3.69% (mar 31 - apr 30)
Mar 2012: 4.89% (feb 28 - mar 31)
Feb 2012: 8.37% (jan 29 - feb 28)
Jan 2012: 12.17% (jan 04 - jan 29)
Dec 2011: 6.97% (dec 02 - jan 04)
Nov 2011: 6.07% (oct 25 - dec 02)
Oct 2011: 22.38% (sep 27 - oct 25)
All the time before that, growth rate 20% and more.


2. Other Supporters:

mar 31: 14,555
apr 30: 14,643
88 new signatures in 30 days, which is 1 new Other Supporter convinced by every one of the already existing OS once every 13.1 years
The exponential growth rate of 7.61% is the worst value for a single month on record yet for ae911t. To compare to recent months, as far as I have data:

Apr 2012: 7.61% (mar 31 - apr 30)
Mar 2012: 9.56% (feb 28 - mar 31))
Feb 2012: 13.65% (jan 29 - feb 28)
Jan 2012: 11.84% (jan 04 - jan 29)
Dec 2011: 16.47% (dec 02 - jan 04)
Nov 2011: 30.22% (oct 25 - dec 02)
Oct 2011: 34.28% (sep 27 - oct 25)


3. Fundraiser "ESO Fnl Ed World Premiere"

Apr 30: Raised $534.11 of the target $8,400 (6%), with 7 contributions ($76.30 per contribution, $89.02 per day). Started apr 24 , ends may 24. At this pace, with 24 days to go, they'll end up 68% short of their target.


The last fundraisers attracted less than $50 per day in donations. So this one has started relatively well, despite being on pace to yet another clearly failed target.

 

[cjnewson88]

I wonder if someone was to contact all the A&E who signed the petition and asked them if their position still stands, how many would remove themselves from the list..

 

[ref]

http://www.ae911truth.org/en/news-s...ous-outreach-continues-to-make-an-impact.html

No need for commentary.