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Merged Apollo "hoax" discussion / Lick observatory laser saga

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All of my knowledge comes from Tom Clancy, but I'd assume that the orders arrive over ELF, the sub rises to launch depth, launches and then scoots off into the deeps again. Since the closest attack sub is usually hundreds of kilometers away at the very least, they have plenty of time to hide. Besides, once they've launched there's little point in killing them, so any attack subs would strike preemptively as soon as nuclear strikes become imminent.

A launch scenario is unlikely to arrive out of the blue, so at launch time, the INS will already be aligned, the target coordinates selected and so forth. The only necessary command will be on the form of "Launch. No, really."
 
I'm sure I'll be corrected in short order if I'm out of line here.
I assume my reputation with you needs little further explanation. You and I have read each other's posts for years in various places. Here is what I am able to tell you (and perhaps conspicuously not tell you).

  • I have never served in the U.S. Navy. (That is not the same as saying I've never been on a U.S. Navy submarine. Just saying.)
  • Computational fluid dynamics is one of my professional areas of expertise.
  • Part of what determines a submarine's sound profile is flow noise. Flow noise is a product of fluid dynamics.
  • I have built and subsequently used some of the fastest supercomputers on the planet.
  • Supercomputers are very useful for studying fluid dynamics, and for many other physical phenomena associated with submarines.
  • Some of the computers I have built reside in places ordinary people can't enter.
  • I have worked on several contracts for the U.S. Navy.
  • I used to live in Michigan.
  • I used to live in California.
  • I know of no Ohio-class SSBN that has been successfully tracked by a foreign power.
  • Operational and strategic details regarding what is or is not a target, how forces are deployed, what means are used to evade detection, and how successful those means are, are topics that submariners may not discuss outside the confines of their service environment.
 
I'm not a submariner, so I'm not devulging any confidential info, but to the best of my knowledge, an Ohio class sub has almost never been successfully tracked by a sub of another nation.

I'm sure I'll be corrected in short order if I'm out of line here.

Nor am I. I gather that there was a certain asymmetry in that regard - that it was almost routine for Soviet subs to be followed. I certainly recall a big fuss being made over some machining technology having been leaked to the Soviets in the '80s on the grounds that it would allow them to manufacture quieter propellers.

I'd have thought that if the Russians knew (many of) their subs were being tracked but didn't know where the West's subs were, it would make them very nervous. Perhaps I got the wrong impression, though.
 
They did not reject it Jay......

Yes, it means a good thing. And the fact that you still think it's a good primary platform after all that's been said is just further evidence to me (and probably to everyone else) that you really have no idea what you're talking about and don't care to listen to contrary facts.



Uh, the military already rejected it as a stupid idea. Where were you?

"Moon Relay" was fully operational for years, the US Navy employing the moon in bouncing its communication signals over great distances. The organized and regular interception of Russian ICBM telemetry echoing off the moon is another documented use of the moon as a military platform, albeit a passive one in this other early example.

The military anything BUT rejected the moon as a useful earth orbiting satellite to be exploited in any way conceivable Jay.
 
I would disagree........

All of my knowledge comes from Tom Clancy, but I'd assume that the orders arrive over ELF, the sub rises to launch depth, launches and then scoots off into the deeps again. Since the closest attack sub is usually hundreds of kilometers away at the very least, they have plenty of time to hide. Besides, once they've launched there's little point in killing them, so any attack subs would strike preemptively as soon as nuclear strikes become imminent.

A launch scenario is unlikely to arrive out of the blue, so at launch time, the INS will already be aligned, the target coordinates selected and so forth. The only necessary command will be on the form of "Launch. No, really."

I would disagree........

In the 1960s and 1970s, tensions rose and fell. It was a Cold War after all, but still, there would have been times when a launch order would have come as a surprise, a relative surprise anyway.
 
...I'm not a submariner, so I'm not devulging any confidential info, but to the best of my knowledge, an Ohio class sub has almost never been successfully tracked by a sub of another nation.

I'm sure I'll be corrected in short order if I'm out of line here.

No. No, you won't, not by anyone who really knows.

And no, I am not one of those people anyway, at least not on that topic.
 
Or claim to be doctors.

That's slightly cattivo, but the point still stands.

In addition to being an engineer, I once also taught engineering classes at the University of Utah. We used to tell students that if they flunked our classes they'd have to declare a business major instead. Sadly a sizable number of my students did drop out of engineering and did become business majors, and now they have nicer houses than mine. Be careful what you wish for.

Most people who aren't engineers have no idea what engineering actually is. That's why when Patrick says he knows "a little engineering," I can confidently say that he knows nothing about engineering. That's because what most layman believe is engineering is really just the mundane mechanics of making machines. Engineering is the mindset behind knowing how and why systems work; and about the delicate interactions among machine, operator, and environment; and about how to satisfice among requirements and interests that are inherently in conflict. Predictably, Patrick demonstrates zero knowledge of those ineffable qualities of the profession.

Ok, seriously, the idea shouldn't be limited to engineers, but (often named, almost never used by conspiracists) common sense*.

Normal people change their motor oil BEFORE it degrades too much...

True, but experienced mechanics know that changing your oil too frequently actually increases engine wear. And automotive engineers know why.

There are three types of knowledge acquisition at work there. Propositional knowledge is simply what you know and believe because someone tells you something. It's offered to you as a proposition, and you simply take it on faith. Reading a book on swimming gives you propositional knowledge, but doesn't enable you to fare well if someone pushes you into the water.

Our friends tell us to change our oil every 3,500 miles and we vaguely know that it has something to do with suspended dirt particles, but we don't delve too deeply. We accept the propositional knowledge and dutifully change our oil. And we figure that if changing our oil every 3,500 miles is good, then changing it every 3,000 might be better. It isn't; it's needlessly wasteful and hard on the engine.

Practical knowledge is simply that which we acquire by doing something. Experienced mechanics get that experience by working on lots of cars for a long time. And part of what they observe over time is that cars that keep oil in them longer show less wear on their parts when they go to disassemble them. That's knowledge you can get propositionally (such as how you're getting it now), but isn't typically part of the average person's propositional world because there's only so much time in the day to get knowledge that way, and only so much room in the brain to store that kind of knowledge. (There's a cognitive reason for why practical knowledge is "stickier" that way, but this post is probably already going to be too long.)

Practical knowlege is getting pushed into the deep end. Having read the book on swimming, one is confronted immediately with how little the book really prepares you for the experience of swimming, with all its largely elusive details and subjective impressions. A written description of swimming fails to convey the gestalt of the experience. Someone who swims even one pool length has already acquired more useful information on swimming than the person who has read a dozen books on the subject.

Deep knowledge, also called causal or logical knowledge, is that which we acquire by studying something in depth, either by composing new fields out of well-understood components, or decomposing the problem at hand into well-known contributing sciences. The automotive engineer understands the hydrodynamics of a fluid-film bearing and knows the relationships among viscosity, temperature, and chemistry over time. He understands the legitimate need in some cases for metal-to-metal contact (e.g., the uppermost piston ring) and studies the equilibrium achieved by metal-bearing additives in the motor oil over time and how those contribute to reducing wear in MTM interfaces.

Only after years of mastering those sciences (chemistry, metallurgy, fluid dynamics, calculus, statistical probability, classical mechanics [the physics kind, not the automotive kind]) can the engineer state confidently how he can know that oil has a break-in period, and that to change out your oil before you have reaped the full benefits of broken-in oil is to do more harm than good.

The average customer says, "Common sense tells me that if I wait too long to change my oil, it's bad for the engine; therefore I should change my oil frequently and that is conversely good for the engine." The mechanic says, "No, don't do that; from what I've seen the engines do better if you stick to Ford's schedule." The engineer says, "Here's a graph of zinc deposition on wear surfaces over time, and another of peak hydrodynamic rolling RPMs for a given viscosity; that's why should should leave the oil in a bit longer."

they realize that "best-before-dates" don't mean that the food goes bad instantly at 0:01 AM of the following day...

Indeed. Most of us have practical knowledge of food-borne illnesses. Hence we accept the propositional knowledge that the date stamped on the package is a date we should trust, and has probably been derived according to logical knowledge provided by food chemists and microbiologists about the prevalence of harmful organisms and mean growth rates.

If I stumble out to the kitchen for breakfast and notice that my milk expired yesterday, a number of factors influence my future decisions: the availability of eggs and bacon instead of cereal, the amount of money I have, my degree of hunger, the proximity of places to get more milk.

I might pour the expired milk down the drain and have eggs and bacon instead, reminding myself to pick up more milk on the way home from work. I might skip breakfast. That is, I trust the propositional knowledge and act accordingly to play it safe.

Or I might be a famished college student with a limited income who really needs that meal. In that case I'll still open the lid and sniff and decide that it really doesn't smell all that bad. That is, having rejected the propositional knowledge, I'm now undertaking some empiricism to determine in a practical sense whether the milk is good enough. I'm attempting to measure the spoilage. I may end up drinking milk laden with bacteria, but I'll have made a reasonably informed decision.

The concept of "good enough" embodies the notion of acceptable risk. And part of common sense is the assessment and assumption of risk, even if do it unconsciously. When we exceed the speed limit on our way to work, we are weighing the risk of being late against the risk of bodily harm or legal consequences.

The fact that we all do this leads some to believe that all risk assessment is simply common sense. In fact, what we learn from psychologists about risk is primarily that (a) risk estimation varies greatly from situation to situation, and over time; and (b) that informal risk estimations are typically irrational. This leads engineers to develop formalisms for evaluating, measuring, and assessing risk, precisely so that we can reason about them instead of relying on emotion.

So when an engineer says, "That's good enough," the layman often responds, "It's not good enough; what about X?" And when we delve deeper we discover how little the layman really knows about X, whereas the engineer may have studied it in depth. There are many, many factors that affect risk assessment, and laymen know about very few of them.

Expired food also introduces the "good enough" concept of a design margin. The expiration date is chosen such that natural variances in bacterial growth don't result in people eating bad food. We realize that food gradually degrades and will be non-dangerous for some time to come.

Engineers are smart enough to know that they don't know everything, including natural variances in the properties they deal with. The "Check Engine" light typically comes on before the car bursts into flames, to tell us that a condition has been detected that requires attention. The design margin in the car, however, enables it to be driven to the nearest mechanic. We anticipate and observe impending failure before we actually act on it.

We specify that structural beams should be able to carry much more than the load we intend to put on them, not just in case we should momentarily overload it, but also in case the beam has unseen defects. This is what gives us confidence to build buildings.

Reserve capacity is a common-sense concept, but its implementation from case to case may not be intuitively apparent. It's not always possible to see where the margin lies or how much is needed.

smart people change to snow tires when they expect snow, not just after it fills the street etc

Indeed, because we have propositional knowledge in the form of a calendar that models approximately the change of climate.

We realize that the changeover process takes time and is therefore "expensive." We realize that driving with snow tires on bare roads may be noisy and perhaps not very fuel-efficient. But we understand that perparedness in this case outweighs inefficiency and noise. That's the concept of satisficing. We know enough about each of the variables to make what we feel is a comfortable compromise.

But what if we could change tires in 30 seconds simply at the push of a button? What if snow tires cost 20 times as much as regular tires and wore out faster? Changing some of the variables changes the decision. Likewise in engineering decisions that may seem superficially similar are actually very different because of differences in the attendant variables that may not be obvious or intuitive to the layman. It often takes deep knowledge to determine defensibly what really matters.

*Somehow I felt the need to defend the often abused "common sense"

Yes, you should. Keep in mind that when conspiracy theorists say "common sense," what they really mean is "my uninformed opinion." They just dress it up in that euphemism.

In fact common sense is what gets us through the day. One of the most widely-quoted engineers, Henry Petroski, can be effectively summarized as saying that engineering is merely well-informed common sense. The problem Patrick is having here is that he skipped the step of acquiring appropriate information. The degree to which has to inform himself before his "common sense" can produce, say, a reasonably safe airliner is colossal -- required years of full-time effort and many tens of thousands of hours of practical employment.

Much of what we do as engineers appeals to common sense once it has been explained. The key is, once it has been explained. The layman can usually appreciate, according to common sense, what an engineer has labored to produce. But that does not mean that the layman can derive such things from common sense. Comprehension after the fact does not equate to insight before the fact.

That is the very bad habit that we must break every engineering student of before he can become successful as an engineer. Because engineering concepts seem intuitively obvious after the fact, don't assume that your intuition necessarily predicts true principles. Always study; always test; always determine causation -- even if you seem silly for doing so.

Common sense is, in an ironic twist, a perfect example of "good enough" judgment to get through the day. That doesn't mean that our common-sensical diagnosis of our back pain as the effects of an unsuitable mattress makes us all doctors. But it lets us get by and make some practical headway with our lives.
 
OMG!!! You have got to admit the lightning thing is great Jay.........

Have all your other Stundies also been jokes?

Very well, if we return to your statement, "Well I can't prove it in a rigorous sense frenat......, but I can do a dang good job approximating rigor," I'll argue then that you've conceded the inability to prove that stars cannot be seen suitably for navigation. When you bear the burden of proof for an extraordinary claim (i.e., that Apollo is fake), there is either rigor or there is failure. Handwaving is not acceptable.



No.

In my profession there is no tolerance for the careless, the unprepared, or the indifferent. In my profession we are legally liable for the strength of our reasoning. By proposing to challenge the feasibility and operation of Apollo technology, you have entered our realm. You can either attain the appropriate level of rigor or you can fail. Kindly do not expect the standard to be lowered just for you.

Now if you're finished failing to shame me away from holding you suitably accountable, please address the many open questions regarding your claims.



Empty flattery. You could demonstrate actual respect by showing that you read what I write in response to your claims, and that you incorporate it in some way into your thinking. When you have to be directed multiple times to contravening facts that I have presented, you show considerable disrespect.



Because your side is wrong.



Asked and answered.



No, what you're doing is employing the straw man fallacy laced with a liberal dose of argument from incredulity.



Your "unmanned Apollo" theory is refuted by your own arguments.



It may indeed be true that you are little more than a theater critic, for you certainly demonstrate no competence as an engineer. However, when your assessment of credibility is based on your misunderstanding and misrepresentation of the underlying technology and operation, it fails nevertheless. If you want to judge the credibility of a play dealing with the White House during the Cuban Missile Crisis, you had better be able to demonstrate some competence in the field of international diplomacy and naval rules of engagement.

In any case, assuming that Apollo is theater simply so that you can claim relevant expertise in judging it as theater is circular reasoning. If you believe it is theater, it's your job to prove that it is -- in the face of universal, well-informed belief that it is fact.

The bottom line is that you haven't been able to demonstrate enough competence in the relevant bodies of knowledge to give your claims any credibility. Nor have you been able to answer your critics.



You do say so yourself -- extensively and repeatedly to the point of tedium. I'm not interested in your auto-congratulatory fantasies or your imaginary friends.

You have no support here. You have no discernible support in the real world. And if you were to present your "findings" here before any substantial body of subject-matter experts you would be laughed off the stage.

You can either attain the rigor called for in the engineering profession, or you can continue being a laughingstock. Your choice.

If you want to impress me, present your findings under your real name, in person, at a meeting of the AIAA and stay to answer questions. I have had no problem whatsoever presenting my side of this controversy under my real name in the international spotlight. Will you demonstrate the same confidence in your own findings?



For a week you've offered nothing besides "OMG!! Lightning!"

Since you clearly have no material response to the detailed analysis I've given you, you're apparently limited to repetition and mockery.

OMG!!!!! You have got to admit the lightning thing is great Jay.....

Try it out on people. Ask your engineering friends the question, "if a plane was struck by lightning on the way up out of NYC..... even if everything checked out OK here in 2011, would it be allowed to go on to Paris?" See what they say.

When I ask my friends I get about 90%, "no bring the plane back down and check it out if you have the opportunity" and 10% say, "well it would depend".

Not kidding. Maybe I am introducing some bias given the way I am asking the question. Perhaps I'll design an unambiguously unbiased questionnaire.
 
Try it out on people. Ask your engineering friends the question, "if a plane was struck by lightning on the way up out of NYC..... even if everything checked out OK here in 2011, would it be allowed to go on to Paris?" See what they say.

When I ask my friends I get about 90%, "no bring the plane back down and check it out if you have the opportunity" and 10% say, "well it would depend".


Do you see the difference there, Patrick?

For that matter, why are you asking anyone's friends? Why aren't you asking aeronautical engineers? Why aren't you asking commercial pilots? Why aren't you asking the people most likely to know the right answer?

Why do you continue to insist that popular beliefs are the same thing as knowledge? It doesn't matter if every uninformed person on earth thinks the plane should be brought back. All that matters is the truth. And you are not going to locate the truth the way you're looking.

This is, in fact, so clearly obvious that it almost seems as if you're personally going out of your way to avoid confronting the truth.
 
I assume my reputation with you needs little further explanation. You and I have read each other's posts for years in various places. Here is what I am able to tell you (and perhaps conspicuously not tell you).

  • I have never served in the U.S. Navy. (That is not the same as saying I've never been on a U.S. Navy submarine. Just saying.)
  • Computational fluid dynamics is one of my professional areas of expertise.
  • Part of what determines a submarine's sound profile is flow noise. Flow noise is a product of fluid dynamics.
  • I have built and subsequently used some of the fastest supercomputers on the planet.
  • Supercomputers are very useful for studying fluid dynamics, and for many other physical phenomena associated with submarines.
  • Some of the computers I have built reside in places ordinary people can't enter.
  • I have worked on several contracts for the U.S. Navy.
  • I used to live in Michigan.
  • I used to live in California.
  • I know of no Ohio-class SSBN that has been successfully tracked by a foreign power.
  • Operational and strategic details regarding what is or is not a target, how forces are deployed, what means are used to evade detection, and how successful those means are, are topics that submariners may not discuss outside the confines of their service environment.

Indeed. ;-)

Actually Jay, I did in fact originally write "never" and then added "almost never" because I wasn't quite sure. But thanks for the confirmation.
 
Try it out on people. Ask your engineering friends the question, "if a plane was struck by lightning on the way up out of NYC..... even if everything checked out OK here in 2011, would it be allowed to go on to Paris?" See what they say.

I just got off the phone with a engineer friend of mine (electrical).

His response to the question was; "Why wouldn't it?"

To which I now turn around and present the question to Patrick.
 
OMG!!!!! You have got to admit the lightning thing is great Jay...

Only as an example of your continued inability to reconcile your beliefs with reality.

Try it out on people.

The behavior of the universe does not change on the basis of a popular vote.

Ask your engineering friends the question, "if a plane was struck by lightning on the way up out of NYC..... even if everything checked out OK here in 2011, would it be allowed to go on to Paris?" See what they say.

Unanimous response: Why would you land a perfectly good airplane?

When I ask my friends I get about 90%, "no bring the plane back down..."

And why is your opinion and that of your friends relevant to the discussion? How many airplanes have you or they built? How many airplanes have you or they flown?

Maybe I am introducing some bias...

Maybe it doesn't matter how many ordinary people you ask, or in what way.

Maybe what applies to a commercial passenger flight has absolutely nothing to do with a monumental manned space flight.

Maybe you'd rather do all this irrelevant polling than investigate how the universe actually behaves.
 
Not kidding. Maybe I am introducing some bias given the way I am asking the question. Perhaps I'll design an unambiguously unbiased questionnaire.

Your bias is in asking people who have no idea what they're talking about.

As already explained to you lord knows how many times, SOP is not for an aircraft to land after a lightning strike. Aircraft are rigorously tested by engineers to ensure that they will not suffer a catastrophic failure when struck by lightning. The average airliner is struck at least once a year, you'd be grounding a lot of planes if you were required to land after getting hit.

Try understanding what you're responding to instead of just reading it.
 
The military anything BUT rejected the moon as a useful earth orbiting satellite to be exploited in any way conceivable Jay.

Straw man.

The military specifically rejected instrumenting the Moon. Moon Relay did not require the Moon to be instrumented. It did not rely on any property that could be considered vulnerable, or that required extensive cost or maintenance.

Your proposal is not at all equivalent to Moon Relay. You have an annoying habit of extending reasonable situations inappropriately to support your unreasonable claims. You need to learn the skill of differentiation, and you need to listen to people who have the subject-matter expertise you don't.

Moon Relay was designed and employed before the U.S. had any artificial satellite capability. It was abandoned when artificial satellites proved they could do the job much better than the Moon. That's entirely compatible with what we've all been saying all along.

No, the military isn't interested in exploiting something "in any way conceivable." Only when it actually makes sense and proves the best use of resources. Your claim is like trying to argue that after tractors replaced draft horses on farms, that farmers secretly spent billions engineering a super-bionic draft horse "just in case" the tractors didn't work, rather than spending the money just improving tractors. Just because you can conceive of it doesn't keep it from being a stupid idea.
 
OMG!!!!! You have got to admit the lightning thing is great Jay.....

Try it out on people. Ask your engineering friends the question, "if a plane was struck by lightning on the way up out of NYC..... even if everything checked out OK here in 2011, would it be allowed to go on to Paris?" See what they say.

When I ask my friends I get about 90%, "no bring the plane back down and check it out if you have the opportunity" and 10% say, "well it would depend".

Not kidding. Maybe I am introducing some bias given the way I am asking the question. Perhaps I'll design an unambiguously unbiased questionnaire.

Among the limited sets of reasonable responses for this type of question is "What are the industry practices?" Without that specific knowledge, few of us are capable of forming a meaningful answer. Certainly not your "friends." That proposition for that situation based merely on personal opinion is only valuable for making political points.
 
OMG!!!!! You have got to admit the lightning thing is great Jay.....

When will you stop with this "you have to agree with me" type of non-question?

How many times must it be repeated that no one here agrees with you, so posting "you must agree" is irrational.
 
Among the limited sets of reasonable responses for this type of question is "What are the industry practices?"

It's important to remember that the industry in question here is not the commercial airline industry, but the experimental manned space flight "industry." Patrick continues to beg the question that what holds for commercial air travel should also hold for specialized space flight.

Conspiracy theorists do this all the time. Unable to demonstrate any actual pertinent expertise, they resort to a sort of "judgment by analogy." They try to connect what they think they know about one subject to some other subject that happens to be the topic of the conspiracy theory.
 
Light Lists are nautical publications that, in case you couldn't guess by the name, list all of the lights in a geographical region useful to mariners (lighthouses, buoys, etc). The information listed included the height of the light above the water and the calculated distance the light could be seen due to the curvature of the Earth. One famous 19th century Flat-Earth believer would scour the Light Lists looking for discrepancies, and since the calculations and copying and printing were done by hand, errors were certain to made, he would find them and annouce to the world, "Ah ha! This one error amongst these thousands of lights proves the world is flat!"

Sound familiar, Patrick?
 
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