Chances of a EU collapse?

[Johny2x4]

So, what are the chances of a EU collapse with the current crisis? I´ve seen many right-wing blogers saying it´s inevitable and also cheering for it too.

 

[L.Y.S.]

So, what are the chances of a EU collapse with the current crisis? I´ve seen many right-wing blogers saying it´s inevitable and also cheering for it too.

Depends, I'm on the side of not likely but I wouldn't rule anything out. It wasn't too long ago that another "Union" existed on the continent which collapsed. Only history will tell.

 

[Ryokan]

About the same that the US will collapse, I'd say.

 

[Humes fork]

Not very likely. What is more likely is that the euro arrangement will be different within a few years.

I wouldn't say that the EU is a left-right issue either.

 

[Toke]

Not much risk of a collapse, it is possible that Grece leaves the currency part.
(Likely best for them.)

 

[a_unique_person]

So, what are the chances of a EU collapse with the current crisis? I´ve seen many right-wing blogers saying it´s inevitable and also cheering for it too.

Greece is small, it's debt is massive in it's terms, but Germany alone could take it on and carry it, like a dependent. All it needs is the political will.

Greece is finally getting serious about getting people to pay tax. For example, the new property tax. You don't just not pay it, and dodge it. It's tied into your power supply. No tax, no power.

 

[Drachasor]

Seems like it collapsing would be crazy. Sure, they have some issues to work out culturally and economically, but they are far from insurmountable.

Honestly, I expect it to expand over the next several decades and beyond. I wouldn't be that surprised if in the long run it becomes the basis for a world government.

 

[Captain_Snort]

Right wing bloggers are the biggest source of idiocy that there is to be found on the internet. Best rule of thumb is openly laugh at anything they write. You can occasionally comment and have a laugh by stating facts, but they are all closed minded bigots and live in a world of their own so it quickly looses the enjoyment factor.

 

[egslim]

Odds are so close to zero as to be indistinguishable from it.

Most European countries, being fairly small, have roughly three options:
- Domination by the US
- Intimidation by Russia
- Integration in the EU

They're simply too small to be politically independent in the modern world. Even countries like Switzerland and Norway, which are formally outside the EU, are under heavy EU-influence through treaties.

Arrangements will be changed, Greece may leave the Eurozone, but the EU as an organization will survive. It's too important to its members to let it collapse.

 

[geni]

Zero. The european free trade area has to many advantages and the euro could be dropped without destorying the EU.

 

[a_unique_person]

The falling Euro is actually something Europe needs. Those German cars are just too damn expensive.

 

[Mark6]

Define "collapse".

Given that EU is a very loose arrangement to begin with, how could you even tell if it DID collapse? Abandonment of Euro?

 

[richardm]

I think abandoning the Euro would come as a bitter blow for a lot of Europeans, but the EU has a lot more than that defining it.

 

[Humes fork]

I think abandoning the Euro would come as a bitter blow for a lot of Europeans, but the EU has a lot more than that defining it.

People seem to confuse the EU and the euro. But there are plenty of EU members who are not in the eurozone. While the current euro scheme does seem unsustainable, I think the EU will go on.

 

[L.Y.S.]

I express the opinion of the majority and express my doubt over an EU 'collapse', but this may have some severe future consequences for the EU. Including the slow or lack of integration of other small Eastern European countries, which many are currently up for bids. And if they integrate Turkey into the EU, I can't even imagine. EU integration will have to be a slower and more thoughtful process. With that being said, I am certain that most of Europe would prefer to be in the EU, rather than be alone.

As others have mentioned there are too many powerful interests in the Europe for the EU to fragment. But several things could occur which could serve a partial blow to the union. One of the greatest potential dangers is the fragmentation of the U.K. I'm not quite sure of the continental impact this would have on Europe, but I'm almost sure that it would domestically cause each of the former home nations to be much poorer.

I've yet to investigate this enough to know for sure, but there are many potential dangers in the EU.

 

[Beerina]

Is the EU even relevant beyond being a clown college to watch? Center of empire shifted to the US a hundred years ago. It is now shifting to China.

The proper response is this:

 

[L.Y.S.]

Is the EU even relevant beyond being a clown college to watch? Center of empire shifted to the US a hundred years ago. It is now shifting to China.

The proper response is this:

I agree, whatever advantage Europe once held over the world has greatly diminished as both industrial and commercial capital has migrated from the west to the east. The great markets of the future will be in Asia. But the EU is at least partially important for Europeans to remain important and global affairs. I doubt that individual European nations could not do this.

Some interesting facts as to why Europeans should definitely stay in the EU.

1.) California

[*]a.) Population- 37,253,956 (With a population nearly the entire size of Poland)(13% of the U.S. GDP)


[*]b.) Economy- $ 1.9 Trillion (With an economy nearly the size of the entire nation of Italy(nominal))(8th largest economy on Earth)


[*]c.) Area- 423,970 km2 (A little smaller than Sweden)


[*]d.) California is the world's fifth largest supplier of food and agriculture commodities


2.) Texas

[*]a.) Population- 25,145,561 (Larger than the entire nation of Australia, or in European context, the nation of Romania)


[*]b.) Economy- $1.207 trillion (which is roughly the size of India/Canada, which is about the 12th largest economy of Earth)


[*]c.) Area- 696,241 km2 (Larger than France)


[*]d.) Another large producer of agriculture and a huge defense contracting state


3.) New York

[*]a.) Population- 19,378,102 (Larger than the Netherlands)


[*]b.) Economy- $1.16 trillion (16th largest economy in the world ranking behind turkey)


[*]c.) Area- 141,300 km2 (Larger than Greece)


[*]d.) Has the largest economic port city in the United States of America (New York City)


Um, I don’t even want to go into the 3 largest Chinese provinces… My point being, Europe needs the EU. Our states are larger than entire European countries in size, population, and economy. There is no way Europe can prevent domination by outside forces if it does not maintain the EU, there is just no way. Let’s just hope that EU seriously doesn’t collapse…

 

[Drachasor]

The EU is great. It isn't perfect and needs some work, and Europe can make itself more competitive in the global market, but without the EU Europe would be weak.

With the EU, they can improve internally, and start adding more and more nations and improve those so that they are also competitive. I don't see any reason why an expanded EU 50 years from now couldn't compete strongly with China and India. It might need to expand out of Europe, but what's the big deal with that?

 

[Polaris]

If it does, does that mean it's not going to cost me an arm and a leg next time I go back there?

 

[Toke]

One big deal is that it requires that laws, currency and financial policies are identical in very different countries.
E.g. Spain and Italy would be best served by having their own currency right now so they could devalue. England have it's own currency and is not in the same trouble in spite of a high debt.