Chances of a EU collapse?

[Drachasor]

One big deal is that it requires that laws, currency and financial policies are identical in very different countries.
E.g. Spain and Italy would be best served by having their own currency right now so they could devalue. England have it's own currency and is not in the same trouble in spite of a high debt.

You could equally argue this is because the EU countries aren't yet tied closely enough together, yes? Germany did just approve helping to bail out countries in trouble though, is that not likely to produce a positive result?

 

[L.Y.S.]

The EU is great. It isn't perfect and needs some work, and Europe can make itself more competitive in the global market, but without the EU Europe would be weak.

With the EU, they can improve internally, and start adding more and more nations and improve those so that they are also competitive. I don't see any reason why an expanded EU 50 years from now couldn't compete strongly with China and India. It might need to expand out of Europe, but what's the big deal with that?

I doubt the EU will expand outside of Europe unless the Russians and western Europeans learn to swallow their pride and work together.

I know Turkey and Georgia want to join, which is as far as the EU will move outside of Europe. I'm more inclined to believe that it would be much more beneficial for both Western Europe and Russia to work together, but Russia still has a big ego created from its soviet past. It's very clear that Russia is 10 times weaker today than it was during its soviet past. And western Europeans have fertility replacement rates that make population planners cringe.

The vast majority of Europeans are experiencing population decline at a time when the vast majority of the world is experiencing record population growth. There are currently 730 million people in Europe if you include Russia, nearly 800 million if you include Turkey. If all Europeans worked together, it is very clear that there are more than enough people to compete with China, India, and the rest of the world. Separately, Europeans cannot do this.

 

[Drachasor]

I doubt the EU will expand outside of Europe unless the Russians and western Europeans learn to swallow their pride and work together.

I know Turkey and Georgia want to join, which is as far as the EU will move outside of Europe. I'm more inclined to believe that it would be much more beneficial for both Western Europe and Russia to work together, but Russia still has a big ego created from its soviet past. It's very clear that Russia is 10 times weaker today than it was during its soviet past. And western Europeans have fertility replacement rates that make population planners cringe.

The vast majority of Europeans are experiencing population decline at a time when the vast majority of the world is experiencing record population growth. There are currently 730 million people in Europe if you include Russia, nearly 800 million if you include Turkey. If all Europeans worked together, it is very clear that there are more than enough people to compete with China, India, and the rest of the world. Separately, Europeans cannot do this.

Russia needs a lot of work before it would be ready, I agree. But can you really say that in the next 50 or 100 years it won't expand outside of Europe?

 

[L.Y.S.]

Russia needs a lot of work before it would be ready, I agree. But can you really say that in the next 50 or 100 years it won't expand outside of Europe?

Are we talking geographically i.e. physically outside of Europe into Asia? Or are we talking politically, where the EU incorporates nations who aren’t transcontinental like Russia, Turkey, or Georgia, and are solely in planted on another continent? If it is the first option, then I am sure Europe will geographically expand beyond Europe through transcontinental nations. If it is the latter (expanding politically beyond its shores to nations like Japan) then I doubt that would ever succeed. You must remember, Europe once held colonies outside of its shores. Any direct European intervention will be seen as another attempt at European domination. I’m not thinking people would want that any more. People are more than happy to economically cooperate with Europe, but I’m thinking that they will not want to join any political alliances that are European- centered.

As for the Russian debacle the only thing impeding their process into becoming a part of the EU is Putin and his cronies. Putin is trying to hold onto old soviet glory that does not exist anymore. And I’m thinking that once Putin leaves for good (from both Russia and the Union State he plans to lead) that more sympathetic regimes will come into power and begin working towards joining the EU.

 

[Drachasor]

Are we talking geographically i.e. physically outside of Europe into Asia? Or are we talking politically, where the EU incorporates nations who aren’t transcontinental like Russia, Turkey, or Georgia, and are solely in planted on another continent? If it is the first option, then I am sure Europe will geographically expand beyond Europe through transcontinental nations. If it is the latter (expanding politically beyond its shores to nations like Japan) then I doubt that would ever succeed. You must remember, Europe once held colonies outside of its shores. Any direct European intervention will be seen as another attempt at European domination. I’m not thinking people would want that any more. People are more than happy to economically cooperate with Europe, but I’m thinking that they will not want to join any political alliances that are European- centered.

I meant geographically. Good point about former Colonies though, as that would be an impediment....to an extent. Japan was never a colony for instance. Australia and Canada are pretty good candidates. The Americas in general might be good, as I don't think they have the negative attitude towards Europe as other former colonies. (More sensibly, America should be forming a union of North and South American countries, but that doesn't seem likely).

That said, it isn't impossible they'd change their attitude if joining came with an influx of money for economic growth, being treated as an equal, sharing in the EU's economic power, and other nice things. Not a trivial change though, I agree.

As for the Russian debacle the only thing impeding their process into becoming a part of the EU is Putin and his cronies. Putin is trying to hold onto old soviet glory that does not exist anymore. And I’m thinking that once Putin leaves for good (from both Russia and the Union State he plans to lead) that more sympathetic regimes will come into power and begin working towards joining the EU.

Agreed. That might take a while though.

 

[L.Y.S.]

I meant geographically. Good point about former Colonies though, as that would be an impediment....to an extent. Japan was never a colony for instance. Australia and Canada are pretty good candidates. The Americas in general might be good, as I don't think they have the negative attitude towards Europe as other former colonies. (More sensibly, America should be forming a union of North and South American countries, but that doesn't seem likely).

Interesting I actually never thought about it like that.

 

[Humes fork]

I agree, whatever advantage Europe once held over the world has greatly diminished as both industrial and commercial capital has migrated from the west to the east. The great markets of the future will be in Asia. But the EU is at least partially important for Europeans to remain important and global affairs. I doubt that individual European nations could not do this.

Some interesting facts as to why Europeans should definitely stay in the EU.

1.) California

[*]a.) Population- 37,253,956 (With a population nearly the entire size of Poland)(13% of the U.S. GDP)


[*]b.) Economy- $ 1.9 Trillion (With an economy nearly the size of the entire nation of Italy(nominal))(8th largest economy on Earth)


[*]c.) Area- 423,970 km2 (A little smaller than Sweden)


[*]d.) California is the world's fifth largest supplier of food and agriculture commodities


2.) Texas

[*]a.) Population- 25,145,561 (Larger than the entire nation of Australia, or in European context, the nation of Romania)


[*]b.) Economy- $1.207 trillion (which is roughly the size of India/Canada, which is about the 12th largest economy of Earth)


[*]c.) Area- 696,241 km2 (Larger than France)


[*]d.) Another large producer of agriculture and a huge defense contracting state


3.) New York

[*]a.) Population- 19,378,102 (Larger than the Netherlands)


[*]b.) Economy- $1.16 trillion (16th largest economy in the world ranking behind turkey)


[*]c.) Area- 141,300 km2 (Larger than Greece)


[*]d.) Has the largest economic port city in the United States of America (New York City)


Um, I don’t even want to go into the 3 largest Chinese provinces… My point being, Europe needs the EU. Our states are larger than entire European countries in size, population, and economy. There is no way Europe can prevent domination by outside forces if it does not maintain the EU, there is just no way. Let’s just hope that EU seriously doesn’t collapse…

I agree with your analysis. When India, Brazil and China become more developed, they will start to question why comparably small nations such as the UK and France have such senior positions in the UN (like in the Security Council). Eventually, it will be hard for them to motivate such a status. But a EU could well motivate itself. If you take Europe as a whole, it is (right now, at least) much more developed than China and India. There is plenty of opportunity for the EU to be a relevant force in the future. As for how big it will eventually be, I'm fairly sure all Balkan countries will eventually join (the main hindrance for Macedonia is Greece bitching about its name), as well as countries like Ukraine and Moldova and the Caucasian countries. Seeking ties with Russia just isn't a promising future in the long term, and these countries know this.

Russia is a nation in decline with a population that has been decreasing a lot in recent times. The current Putin/Gazprom oligarchy has little potential to turn it around. Russia is unlikely to be a significant power in the future, but it is also too proud to join the EU. Even if Russia decided today that it would want to, it would be decades away from qualifying. It seems to become some sort of strange land between the EU and China.

As for non-European countries joining the EU, it could happen. There have been (loose) talks of Israel and Cap Verde joining. But bigger countries like Canada, Japan and the US are never going to join.

 

[Humes fork]

(More sensibly, America should be forming a union of North and South American countries, but that doesn't seem likely).

The South American countries are forming a union. As for North America, I doubt the US and Canada are particularly interested in forming a union with countries like El Salvador, Panama and Haiti.

 

[L.Y.S.]

The South American countries are forming a union. As for North America, I doubt the US and Canada are particularly interested in forming a union with countries like El Salvador, Panama and Haiti.

Canadians don't want American Crime, and Americans don't want Mexican crime. North American Union will most likely never happen, or at least not for another 50 years until Latin America fixes many of its social issues. And yes South America is making a Union similar to that of the EU. It's had a profound impact on politics in the Americas. Essentially the South Americans are telling us to piss off, interesting indeed...

 

[L.Y.S.]

Russia is a nation in decline with a population that has been decreasing a lot in recent times.

I've heard Russia's population has actually started to balance itself out and the rate of decline is slowly starting to halt and reverse. Most expect Russia to experience a very slow population growth soon. And Russia’s economy is actually still growing. I’m definitely not saying they are what they used to be, but Russia will stay in the game for as long as they can. Russia is forecasted to return to the global stage, at an albeit less powerful position, but nonetheless, an important one.

The current Putin/Gazprom oligarchy has little potential to turn it around. Russia is unlikely to be a significant power in the future, but it is also too proud to join the EU. Even if Russia decided today that it would want to, it would be decades away from qualifying. It seems to become some sort of strange land between the EU and China.

I'm thinking once Putin leaves office that Russia will seek to join the EU. And I'm willing to bet that Medvedev was much more sensitive to the west, but his big brother (Putin) wouldn't leave him alone. Medvedev was very cooperative with the west and his presidency looked tremendously hopeful for Russia. Unfortunately, Putin muddled with the constitution and got another shot at two terms. I was very upset when I heard this junk. Putin is hurting Russia more than he is helping.

As for the Ukraine joining the EU, I'm kind of skeptical it could do that without having Russia join the EU with it. It's too close to Russia and Russians have made it clear that they don't want American friendly regimes too close to Russia. They are still too scared that someone can attack their western borders apparently.

As for non-European countries joining the EU, it could happen. There have been (loose) talks of Israel and Cap Verde joining. But bigger countries like Canada, Japan and the US are never going to join.

Yeah, I’ve thought so myself. It’d be no point in America joining; we’re about 20 years away from having another 80 million people. America will number some 420 million people by 2050. It’s irrelevant for us to join.


Would it be beneficial to extend the EU beyond Europe? Not really seeing the point. Maybe Turkey, and Russia, but I doubt it would be good for Europe to get involved in Israel. That'd be one hell of a mess to deal with.

 

[Humes fork]

Canadians don't want American Crime, and Americans don't want Mexican crime. North American Union will most likely never happen, or at least not for another 50 years until Latin America fixes many of its social issues. And yes South America is making a Union similar to that of the EU. It's had a profound impact on politics in the Americas. Essentially the South Americans are telling us to piss off, interesting indeed...

A North American union would also be strange in the way that the US would have a bigger population than all the other members combined. The power-relations would be like those between Russia and the other members of the USSR.

I've heard Russia's population has actually started to balance itself out and the rate of decline is slowly starting to halt and reverse. Most expect Russia to experience a very slow population growth soon.

Oh I see. At least something. Russia has place for a much bigger population. Theoretically, over-populated countries like Japan and Bangladesh could probably benefit if communities from these countries could move to Russia. But practically, that will of course never happen.

And Russia’s economy is actually still growing.

But isn't the growth mostly due to rising oil prices?

Russia will stay in the game for as long as they can. Russia is forecasted to return to the global stage, at an albeit less powerful position, but nonetheless, an important one.

I don't think Russia will be as powerful as the USSR, i.e it will not be a superpower again, like US currently is. It could be (and is) a regional power, like Iran.

I'm thinking once Putin leaves office that Russia will seek to join the EU. And I'm willing to bet that Medvedev was much more sensitive to the west, but his big brother (Putin) wouldn't leave him alone. Medvedev was very cooperative with the west and his presidency looked tremendously hopeful for Russia. Unfortunately, Putin muddled with the constitution and got another shot at two terms. I was very upset when I heard this junk. Putin is hurting Russia more than he is helping.

I don't disagree with this, but even if Russia decided today it would want to join the EU and start working toward that goal, it would still be decades away from actually qualifying. Too much corruption, crime and racism, and too little democracy and law and order.

But Russia is a very proud (and xenophobic) country, and I get the feeling that they don't really like the West. If it joined, it would the most powerful members (as that is decided by population), but not powerful enough that other countries together couldn't overturn them.

As for the Ukraine joining the EU, I'm kind of skeptical it could do that without having Russia join the EU with it. It's too close to Russia and Russians have made it clear that they don't want American friendly regimes too close to Russia. They are still too scared that someone can attack their western borders apparently.

From what I know, the ethnic Russians want to be closer to Russia, but the ethnic Ukrainians are not that keen. If Ukraine chooses to join the EU, it would not be much for Russia to do. It was very hurt when the Baltic states joined, but what can they do?

Yeah, I’ve thought so myself. It’d be no point in America joining; we’re about 20 years away from having another 80 million people. America will number some 420 million people by 2050. It’s irrelevant for us to join.

Eventually I think a world federation of some sort will form, but not yet. Not for another century or so. As it stands now, the US is a federation, and its states are like European countries in sizes and populations. It would not make sense for the US to join. It would be just weird. It would even make more sense if some European countries and territories (like Greenland and Iceland) became American states.

Would it be beneficial to extend the EU beyond Europe? Not really seeing the point. Maybe Turkey, and Russia, but I doubt it would be good for Europe to get involved in Israel. That'd be one hell of a mess to deal with.

I think it depends. The EU is already involved in Israel-Palestinian peace negotiations. But yeah, to extend beyond Europe makes little sense, especially if the outsiders are very populous like Japan. Cap Verde would not be such a big deal I think.

Theoretically Kazakhstan could join as it has a small strip of land in Europe, but unlike Turkey, Kazakhstan has not even remote historical or cultural connections to Europe. So that is very, very unlikely.

 

[Captain_Snort]

Russia needs a lot of work before it would be ready, I agree. But can you really say that in the next 50 or 100 years it won't expand outside of Europe?

Morocco has applied to join, but been politely told that it is not in Europe, similarly Algeria with its links to France. Turkey is a little bit in Europe (just a tad.) Mind you, for some unexplained reason Israel is in the Eurovision song contest.

Those who say it will fail are living in cloud cuckoo land (aka right wingers), The EU economy is considerably larger than that of the US and China, and, as others have mentioned, the Eurozone is not the same as the EU.

 

[L.Y.S.]

Turkey is a little bit in Europe (just a tad.)

Fortunately for Turkey it had a small region in Europe that packed 9 million people into it. That definitely qualifies for EU membership somehow.

 

[Drachasor]

Morocco has applied to join, but been politely told that it is not in Europe, similarly Algeria with its links to France. Turkey is a little bit in Europe (just a tad.) Mind you, for some unexplained reason Israel is in the Eurovision song contest.

Long term, I don't see why they wouldn't expand outside of Europe beyond a naming convention (which is a stupid reason). The EU is still pretty new and a lot of people seem a bit gun shy about adding new members (like Turkey). When it is older and people are more comfortable with it, I expect that will change. So perhaps in a few decades Morocco will be a member.

Or maybe I play too much Civilization and like expansion.

 

[L.Y.S.]

Long term, I don't see why they wouldn't expand outside of Europe beyond a naming convention (which is a stupid reason). The EU is still pretty new and a lot of people seem a bit gun shy about adding new members (like Turkey). When it is older and people are more comfortable with it, I expect that will change. So perhaps in a few decades Morocco will be a member.

Or maybe I play too much Civilization and like expansion.

There is no reason to expand outside of Europe or European countries. Morocco should really be closer to other Arab countries rather than Europe. Although at one point Morocco was a part of several civilizations that were connected to Europe that practically vanished after the Ottoman collapse. Turkey is severely different from Morocco, because Turkey has a history of being deep inside of Europe. And it still has literal territory inside of Europe. I'm sure that little chunk of Istanbul makes all the difference.

And I forward what Humes fork said. One day there will be a world federation, but I seriously think that's about 2 centuries away. I'm not too optimistic for it to happen in the 21st or even the 22nd century.

 

[egslim]

Long term, I don't see why they wouldn't expand outside of Europe beyond a naming convention (which is a stupid reason). The EU is still pretty new and a lot of people seem a bit gun shy about adding new members (like Turkey). When it is older and people are more comfortable with it, I expect that will change. So perhaps in a few decades Morocco will be a member.

People are shy about adding new members for good reason. Integration is a complicated process, and as the situation in Greece shows, if one country screws up, the whole community hurts. Corruption in Bulgaria and Romania is also still an issue.

As a community grows, mechanisms need to be developed to 'police' it. That will happen, but it takes time. The EU is a slow, long-term project.

A North American union would also be strange in the way that the US would have a bigger population than all the other members combined. The power-relations would be like those between Russia and the other members of the USSR.

That's what makes an EU-style North American union impossible. One reason why so many countries are keen to join the EU is because it's not dominated by a single member.

Would it be beneficial to extend the EU beyond Europe? Not really seeing the point. Maybe Turkey, and Russia, but I doubt it would be good for Europe to get involved in Israel. That'd be one hell of a mess to deal with.

The point is that cooperation can be mutually beneficial, no need to limit it to continental boundaries.
I can see Canada joining at some point. Canada in a North American union would be completely subjugated by the US, Canada in the EU would have a voice.

 

[L.Y.S.]

People are shy about adding new members for good reason. Integration is a complicated process, and as the situation in Greece shows, if one country screws up, the whole community hurts. Corruption in Bulgaria and Romania is also still an issue.

As a community grows, mechanisms need to be developed to 'police' it. That will happen, but it takes time. The EU is a slow, long-term project.

True

That's what makes an EU-style North American union impossible. One reason why so many countries are keen to join the EU is because it's not dominated by a single member.

False, America is not Russia and we would respect the sovereign rights of Canada. It has much less to do with fear of absorption than it has to deal with fear of debt, burden, and the necessary expansion of the police force that would result from the Union. Not to mention our politics would change overnight. Mexico is a fairly large nation, and with the 50 million Latinos already in the country, the additional 110 million that Mexico would provide would almost certainly swamp us. It would overwhelm our electorate and the would be further from an Anglo-American majority.

The point is that cooperation can be mutually beneficial, no need to limit it to continental boundaries.
I can see Canada joining at some point. Canada in a North American union would be completely subjugated by the US, Canada in the EU would have a voice.

This would prove useless. The EU was the result of several treaties between European nations to create stability and peace. The same treaties that we and Canada have. There would be no point in Canada joining the EU because they have already formed several treaties with us. The EU should remain in Europe because it was indeed created for Europeans. There is no reason for the EU to expand into our regional space. I can see the useful application for maybe australia.

 

[Humes fork]

False, America is not Russia and we would respect the sovereign rights of Canada. It has much less to do with fear of absorption than it has to deal with fear of debt, burden, and the necessary expansion of the police force that would result from the Union. Not to mention our politics would change overnight. Mexico is a fairly large nation, and with the 50 million Latinos already in the country, the additional 110 million that Mexico would provide would almost certainly swamp us. It would overwhelm our electorate and the would be further from an Anglo-American majority.

In the EU, power is given after population size. The thing with the proposed North American Union is that the US would have more than 50% of the population, and thus get its way every time.

In the EU, it's mostly France and Germany who run the show, but they can be voted down if the opponents are many enough.

One of the worries with Turkey joining is its big population and its subsequent influence. If say, Azerbaijan was about to join, it would be much less controversial despite that it is very similar to Turkey in culture, language and history before the 20th century (but ironically pretty similar today).

This would prove useless. The EU was the result of several treaties between European nations to create stability and peace. The same treaties that we and Canada have. There would be no point in Canada joining the EU because they have already formed several treaties with us. The EU should remain in Europe because it was indeed created for Europeans. There is no reason for the EU to expand into our regional space. I can see the useful application for maybe australia.

I agree with this, but I don't think Australia should join the EU! It makes no sense.

 

[L.Y.S.]

[

In the EU, power is given after population size. The thing with the proposed North American Union is that the US would have more than 50% of the population, and thus get its way every time.

In the EU, it's mostly France and Germany who run the show, but they can be voted down if the opponents are many enough.

One of the worries with Turkey joining is its big population and its subsequent influence. If say, Azerbaijan was about to join, it would be much less controversial despite that it is very similar to Turkey in culture, language and history before the 20th century (but ironically pretty similar today).

Any sort of alliance the U.S. would make would be modeled on our federal system of government and not solely on population size. And I'm sure nations would receive sovereign rights and respect of their various territorial rights with options to opt out or conduct personal initiatives if desired. It is true that Canada would have a disadvantage in terms of population size. However, that would quickly be overcome. The Northern portions of America are very similar to Canada culturally and politically.

However, believe it or not, the reason there is no NAU is because most Americans don’t want to lose their sovereignty. WE do not desire to have our national laws superseded by the laws of a more powerful state entity. I’m sure the same can be said for Canada. And the one really pushing for this alliance has always been Mexico, because it desires to have the same sort of modernization programs as seen in Italy, Spain, and Ireland during their ascension into the EU. However, the mess that would come with unifying with Mexico maybe more than more Americans can deal with. Mexico isn’t a small nation, nor is it a peaceful one.

I agree with this, but I don't think Australia should join the EU! It makes no sense.

Yeah it doesn't, but I was more of throwing the other guy a bone. I too think that Australia being a part of the EU is pointless. The distance is far too vast and would strain what resources Europe did have. Europe is designed to be a sensible and easily maintainable union of countries that provides each of its members with economic advantages. I don’t necessarily see this being the case with Australia. The distance would eliminate whatever advantage there is to being a part of the EU.

 

[Ryokan]

Mexico is a fairly large nation, and with the 50 million Latinos already in the country, the additional 110 million that Mexico would provide would almost certainly swamp us. It would overwhelm our electorate and the would be further from an Anglo-American majority.

People said similar things when it came to admitting Eastern European countries to the EU. Turns out, there was nothing to worry about, the people of those countries didn't en masse pack up their stuff and move to the wealthier Western European countries.