Thought experiment: Pearl Harbour as a 9/11 target

[angrysoba]

ElMondoHumus, you make some very good points there.

I would perhaps refine what I said before to saying that maybe with 9/11 there was something like a "perfect storm" impact to it such that it is almost impossible to imagine another kind of attack having the same emotional wallop. But this is why, if I'm permitted to talk in a detatched or disinterested way about it, the 19 hijackers just couldn't have pulled off anything approximating the feat they did if they'd tried.

 

[dtugg]

So our top of the line Military toy (arguably...) is just going to sit around and be caught completely off guard by a civilian plane crashing into it.

Jeez, I hope no one with actual warplanes hears how easy this is. I don't know nuthin' 'bout no army stuff, but I am guessing that there are people paid to watch for things that are about to smash into the goddamn ship.

Or maybe not, maybe they toss the keys to the seventeen year old valet when they get to port and go get blind drunk. I am sure the ship is insured, if he wrecks it they will just get a newer model.

Peal Harbor is right next to Honolulu International Airport.

 

[Varanid]

Peal Harbor is right next to Honolulu International Airport.

So what.
You think a commercial airliner is just going to sneak up on it? Is everyone on the ship playing Farmville? Are the guns really just loaded with signs that pop out and say "bang"?

Perhaps this would be really easy to accomplish. If so, I want someone fired. If a commercial airliner can crash into our most important ship(s) then someone has some serious 'splaining to do.

 

[dtugg]

So what.
You think a commercial airliner is just going to sneak up on it? Is everyone on the ship playing Farmville? Are the guns really just loaded with signs that pop out and say "bang"?

Perhaps this would be really easy to accomplish. If so, I want someone fired. If a commercial airliner can crash into our most important ship(s) then someone has some serious 'splaining to do.

So planes fly over Pearl Harbor all the time. Do you really think that that there are people manning the ships defenses while it is on port waiting for commercial airliners to alter their landing approach and shoot the plane down within seconds?

 

[Gawdzilla Sama]

Pearl didn't use the tools at its disposal until well into the attack in 1941.

According to the deck logs, fire was opened 2 minutes after the attack began.

Also, it wasn't until after 9/11 that the "hijacked airplane as cruise missile" idea became a real thought in peoples' minds.

*cough* Kamikazes *cough*

 

[Foolmewunz]

So what.
You think a commercial airliner is just going to sneak up on it? Is everyone on the ship playing Farmville? Are the guns really just loaded with signs that pop out and say "bang"?

Perhaps this would be really easy to accomplish. If so, I want someone fired. If a commercial airliner can crash into our most important ship(s) then someone has some serious 'splaining to do.

Maybe you could get a map of Honolulu and check out the distance. Pearl is 3 miles from the landing strip at the international airport. It is also across the harbor from the Air Force Base - less than two miles away.

How many alerts per day do you think a ship at Pearl would have to react to?

Further, a plane landing (or, assuming ebil terrorists at the controls, pretending to land) at the passenger airport would not create any notice on board the ship. There are hundreds of landings and take-offs a day, after all. A little bit of throttle, 400 mph, and from the moment it was noticed that the 747 had overshot its landing and was proceeding to Pearl, they would have precisely ONE MINUTE to decide it wasn't just landing at the AFB or had simply had a technical problem and was going to go around and take another pass at landing.

In your preparedness scenario, they'd be shooting down a plane every ten hours or so.

 

[dtugg]

Maybe you could get a map of Honolulu and check out the distance. Pearl is 3 miles from the landing strip at the international airport. It is also across the harbor from the Air Force Base - less than two miles away.

How many alerts per day do you think a ship at Pearl would have to react to?

Further, a plane landing (or, assuming ebil terrorists at the controls, pretending to land) at the passenger airport would not create any notice on board the ship. There are hundreds of landings and take-offs a day, after all. A little bit of throttle, 400 mph, and from the moment it was noticed that the 747 had overshot its landing and was proceeding to Pearl, they would have precisely ONE MINUTE to decide it wasn't just landing at the AFB or had simply had a technical problem and was going to go around and take another pass at landing.

In your preparedness scenario, they'd be shooting down a plane every ten hours or so.

The runways are east-west, but everything else you said makes sense.

 

[Foolmewunz]

The runways are east-west, but everything else you said makes sense.

I hadn't actually checked the runway directions. The point would be that between the AFB and the International, the guy watching radar on the carrier would be looking at 40 or 50 blips per hour, moving in all sorts of directions at all sorts of speeds. There'd be no time to do even a cursory check with the controllers at the two airports - the liner would be in the radio room with them by the time they decided it was a bogey.

Even a fighter, already aloft from the AFB would have difficulty reacting in time. The single minute is not much time when you have to decide whether you're taking down a threat or about to fire on Girl Scout Troop 314 from Des Moines. And no carrier or cruiser in Pearl has weapons ready to fire in twenty or thirty seconds.

 

[JoeTheJuggler]

Nimitz carriers carry about 6,000 sailors. But they wouldn't all be aboard if the ship was on port. Plus, like I said, it would be unusual for a carrier to be at Pearl Harbor. As for the reactors, those ships are very heavily armored and very large so I think they would be fine.

Also, if a carrier were hit by a kamikaze commercial airliner, would you expect most on board to die?

In a way, we got really lucky with the towers. If it had been an hour or so later, the population of the towers would have been *much* greater.

But mostly I think the symbolism is completely different. It's not like Al Qaeda sees themselves as allies of Japan (or even the Axis nations of WWII).

 

[dtugg]

I hadn't actually checked the runway directions. The point would be that between the AFB and the International, the guy watching radar on the carrier would be looking at 40 or 50 blips per hour, moving in all sorts of directions at all sorts of speeds. There'd be no time to do even a cursory check with the controllers at the two airports - the liner would be in the radio room with them by the time they decided it was a bogey.

Even a fighter, already aloft from the AFB would have difficulty reacting in time. The single minute is not much time when you have to decide whether you're taking down a threat or about to fire on Girl Scout Troop 314 from Des Moines. And no carrier or cruiser in Pearl has weapons ready to fire in twenty or thirty seconds.

Oh, I agree. It was just a minor quibble.

Also, Hickam AFB shares runways with HNL. I imagine this would make it even harder for them to respond (not that it would really be possible anyway).

 

[doctoraudit]

If terrorists are looking for a target in Pearl Harbor, the battleship Missouri is now preserved there as a museum ship. That would be a symbolic target.

 

[Varanid]

Foolmewunz, Dtugg, et al:

So an Aircraft Carrier, carrying eleventy majillions of dollars worth of hardware, personnel, and what not can be rendered into a greasy fireball by a nut with an airplane?

I will fall back on my second statement- that is just stupid. How the **** are we supposed to survive actual, military adversaries, if a commercial airplane can easily accomplish this task.

If what you say can be taken as true (I still doubt it) then someone has made a monumentally stupid decision with a whole pile of taxpayer funds (not to mention lives).

 

[dtugg]

Foolmewunz, Dtugg, et al:

So an Aircraft Carrier, carrying eleventy majillions of dollars worth of hardware, personnel, and what not can be rendered into a greasy fireball by a nut with an airplane?

I will fall back on my second statement- that is just stupid. How the **** are we supposed to survive actual, military adversaries, if a commercial airplane can easily accomplish this task.

If what you say can be taken as true (I still doubt it) then someone has made a monumentally stupid decision with a whole pile of taxpayer funds (not to mention lives).

How you do you propose that the Navy protect an aircraft carrier from a hijacked commercial airliner while it is in port near an airport? Really, I would like to know your brilliant plan.

When they are out at sea, it is a different story. There are fighter jets flying all the time. There are electronic warfare jets flying all the time. There are early warning radar aircraft flying all the time. There are guided missile cruisers. There are destroyers. There are attack subs. Plus its location is classified information.

As for an enemy military attacking the US, that would be a monumentally stupid decision. Plus the US is separated from any realistc enemies by two little things called the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans so there would be plenty of warning.

 

[Travis]

Foolmewunz, Dtugg, et al:

So an Aircraft Carrier, carrying eleventy majillions of dollars worth of hardware, personnel, and what not can be rendered into a greasy fireball by a nut with an airplane?

I will fall back on my second statement- that is just stupid. How the **** are we supposed to survive actual, military adversaries, if a commercial airplane can easily accomplish this task.

If what you say can be taken as true (I still doubt it) then someone has made a monumentally stupid decision with a whole pile of taxpayer funds (not to mention lives).

Well an actual military adversary would have to first get their warplanes into range. That would mean either invading one of the other islands or using their own aircraft carriers. Either one would be sort of noticed and the aircraft carrier would be put to sea where it is safer.

And, don't get me wrong, an aircraft carrier is always most vulnerable while in port. This is because what protects a carrier is a web of other ships and submarines around it. While at sea it also uses it's own airwing to patrol an even larger area. Aside from a few Phalanx cannons an aircraft carrier has no real indigenous self defense capabilities. And those cannons would be of little help against a 777 heading straight for it at 500mph.

 

[dtugg]

Well an actual military adversary would have to first get their warplanes into range. That would mean either invading one of the other islands or using their own aircraft carriers. Either one would be sort of noticed and the aircraft carrier would be put to sea where it is safer.

And, don't get me wrong, an aircraft carrier is always most vulnerable while in port. This is because what protects a carrier is a web of other ships and submarines around it. While at sea it also uses it's own airwing to patrol an even larger area. Aside from a few Phalanx cannons an aircraft carrier has no real indigenous self defense capabilities. And those cannons would be of little help against a 777 heading straight for it at 500mph.

I believe Russia has exactly one aircraft carrier. No other realistic potential enemy has any.

 

[Travis]

Yeah but what if they hijack the de Gaulle?

 

[Varanid]

If this is truly the case then I am speechless. If it is that easy to take one out, then it is a monumentally stupid decision to make them this vulnerable.

Just so I am clear (again, I know nothing about the military, just using common sense here), an Aircraft carrier can defend itself against a hostile enemy fighter jet, yet it is helpless against a commercial aircraft piloted by a nut.

I get that they don't have a whole lot of time to make the call, but when an enemy fighter is attacking I am guessing they don't wait for you to get ready.

 

[dtugg]

If this is truly the case then I am speechless. If it is that easy to take one out, then it is a monumentally stupid decision to make them this vulnerable.

Just so I am clear (again, I know nothing about the military, just using common sense here), an Aircraft carrier can defend itself against a hostile enemy fighter jet, yet it is helpless against a commercial aircraft piloted by a nut.

I get that they don't have a whole lot of time to make the call, but when an enemy fighter is attacking I am guessing they don't wait for you to get ready.

Again. How do you propose that the Navy defend an aircraft carrier from a hijacked commercial airliner while at port near an airport?

As for an an enemy aircraft while at sea, they would see it coming way before it got near the ship and it would be shot down by one of the carrier's fighters or a ship to air missile.

 

[Bill Thompson]

I've been thinking... what if they decided to hit Pearl Harbour instead, because of its historical significance as America's last surprise attack victim? What vessels were present there and what was the readiness at the time?

I guess what I'm asking is, could the terrorists have hijacked airliners, flown to Pearl, and crashed their hijacked planes into, say, a moored American aircraft carrier?

Who cares?

 

[Delvo]

How do you propose that the Navy defend an aircraft carrier from a hijacked commercial airliner while at port near an airport?

They (both the ships and the base) have these things called radars and missiles and big guns & big bullets. The former thing can determine any flying object's speed and trajectory within range in a fraction of a second after spotting it and track them constantly for instantaneous recognition of unexpected changes, with automatic alerts going off if the change is a dangerous one. The latter two things can arrive at a target a mile away in a few seconds or less. The people operating these systems would have time to wait and watch the clock to give the target until the last moment (before it would cross the "too late" line and have to be clobbered) to resume a normal course.