9/11-investigator
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- Nov 9, 2008
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Libya is now in the civil war mode, could easily fall apart. Meanwhile a much bigger event is developing: Saudi-Arabia:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/8358176/Saudi-Arabia-contagion-triggers-Gulf-rout.html
Saudi Arabia contagion triggers Gulf rout, By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Yesterday I paid 90 euro (126 $) to fill my car's 53 liter tank. That's an all-time record (9.0 $/gallon). That's the Libya effect only, merely 1% of global supply.
I am an adherent to the peak-oil theory. The theory says that more than half of total global oil resources have been consumed. This oil was by and large consumed since the 1960's by a few hundred million Europeans, either in America or in Europe. Moreover the oil consumed represented the easy 'low-hanging fruit': just drill a hole in the sand and the oil will spray out. That is no longer the case. It will take ever more trouble to meet demand, like drilling under kilometers of water, like in the Mexican Gulf, with all the hazards that come with that sort of enterprise, as we have recently seen. Now there are far more potential consumers for the 2nd half of the oil pie. That means that the corresponding consumer time will be far less than the 50 years of the first half. At far higher production costs at that. And that is under the assumption that no political turmoil will stop producing oil.
And that is not going to happen as the developments in the ME now show us. 1 barrel of oil represents the equivalent of 2 years a manual slave labour (that is btw the real reason why slavery in the US was abolished: it was put out of business by the rise of applications of hydrocarbons in the North). And as such, even when the price will rise to 1,000$ a barrel, there still will be (some) demand for it.
The oil age is over now. And as a consequence the car age is over. In the coming years Joe Six-pack will abandon his car. If Saudi-Arabia falls, the car age will be over in a few months. We will see the rise of car-pooling, possibly enforced by the government, as a temporarily counter-measure to keep the economy going. We will see the rise of more fuel-efficient cars. But it will merely mean delay of execution. The stupidest investment a westener can do now is to buy a new standard car.
And since energy is necessarily used in all aspects of the economy (production, transport), we will see the rise of prices of all commodities. Already the rise of food prices as a consequence of the rise of energy prices has caused uproar and instability in the 3rd world and this is only the beginning. It is not going to be pretty.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/8358176/Saudi-Arabia-contagion-triggers-Gulf-rout.html
Saudi Arabia contagion triggers Gulf rout, By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Yesterday I paid 90 euro (126 $) to fill my car's 53 liter tank. That's an all-time record (9.0 $/gallon). That's the Libya effect only, merely 1% of global supply.
I am an adherent to the peak-oil theory. The theory says that more than half of total global oil resources have been consumed. This oil was by and large consumed since the 1960's by a few hundred million Europeans, either in America or in Europe. Moreover the oil consumed represented the easy 'low-hanging fruit': just drill a hole in the sand and the oil will spray out. That is no longer the case. It will take ever more trouble to meet demand, like drilling under kilometers of water, like in the Mexican Gulf, with all the hazards that come with that sort of enterprise, as we have recently seen. Now there are far more potential consumers for the 2nd half of the oil pie. That means that the corresponding consumer time will be far less than the 50 years of the first half. At far higher production costs at that. And that is under the assumption that no political turmoil will stop producing oil.
And that is not going to happen as the developments in the ME now show us. 1 barrel of oil represents the equivalent of 2 years a manual slave labour (that is btw the real reason why slavery in the US was abolished: it was put out of business by the rise of applications of hydrocarbons in the North). And as such, even when the price will rise to 1,000$ a barrel, there still will be (some) demand for it.
The oil age is over now. And as a consequence the car age is over. In the coming years Joe Six-pack will abandon his car. If Saudi-Arabia falls, the car age will be over in a few months. We will see the rise of car-pooling, possibly enforced by the government, as a temporarily counter-measure to keep the economy going. We will see the rise of more fuel-efficient cars. But it will merely mean delay of execution. The stupidest investment a westener can do now is to buy a new standard car.
And since energy is necessarily used in all aspects of the economy (production, transport), we will see the rise of prices of all commodities. Already the rise of food prices as a consequence of the rise of energy prices has caused uproar and instability in the 3rd world and this is only the beginning. It is not going to be pretty.
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