Project Astrometria:Global Cooling until 2100?

[Haig]

I could but it is not my claim to defend. (I am also an apprentice training in malware removal right now, keeps my free time busy)

Your excused.

Just to explain myself, a bit, about these posts today where I copy and paste some criticisms of mainstream science.

I spend far more of my free time looking at the brilliant work of mainstream scientists than the Russians in the OP, Piers Corbyn or even EU/PC sites.

However, they are human and as someone said recently on this thread, “he who pays the piper”

When scientists get into bed with the politicians, for the sake of public funding etc ….. It’s the science that can get f****d.

Just for interest:

Solar Influences Data Analysis Center (SIDC)
http://sidc.oma.be/

NOAA Surface Data, Monthly
(weather stations)
http://gis.ncdc.noaa.gov/map/monthly/#app=e1c0&acfc-selectedIndex=1

Office of Legislative & Intergovernmental Affairs
http://legislative.nasa.gov/hearings/index.html

Solar & Heliospheric Observatory
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/home.html

Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GLAST/news/fermi-thunderstorms.html

 

[Haig]

You've inadvertantly assigned something of Haig's to me, I think .

Looks like that malware's found out where you live ...

Yip, I noticed that too

Warm and wet here in Europe, with no warning from Corbyn (who'd have us hunkered down against the cold). Some flooding, with rainfall and snowmelt going on. Fortunately we have weather services that gave good warning.

I think you've spoke too soon

JAN 2011 Advisory Note issued 14th Jan 2011 for
Britain & Ireland and Europe.

The WeatherAction long range forecasts for the first two weather periods of Jan 2011 namely 1-5th and 6-10th have been reasonably well confirmed, in particular the period 6-10th for Britain & Ireland of a N/NE (cold) vs S/SW (mild) split with mild or very mild air at times attempting but failing to penetrate far North was very skillfully predicted.

However the 7 days 11-17th Jan (comprising periods 11-14th & 15-17th) has seen a continuation of the milder trend and is turning out notably milder than our long range forecast – despite the fact our USA extreme events forecast for same period went very well.

It now appears cold air will start advancing South again from Sunday 16th and the next weather periods starting 18th Jan will be back on track with a return of exceptionally harsh winter weather during the second half of January.
http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=297&c=5

Yes, but the phase of the Moon has a strong influence, on Corbyn at least.

It's on the Moon, I'll be bound. You'll notice that there were no floods on the Moon 38 years ago (2 * 19 years, a double Lunar cycle), and there are no floods there now. Score another success for Corbyn.

I suspect that this double effect (twin solar cycles, twin Lunar cycles) is what lies at the heart of Corbyn's revelatory insight. People have been searching for a solar-cycle signal in climate for almost two centuries, and a lunar signal of a quite different sort for even longer, but the double-double thing ... I think that's new.

This dualism is all rather Buddhist in conception, and Corbyn is a child of the 60's (if you take account of details, such as him being a late-developer). If you look it the right way it all becomes clear.

Now my method is thoroughly scientific, and includes the influence of Sirius. Subscription is required if anyone wants detaqils.

Yes, I was right - you have performed on the stage

Could you give me the "detaqils"

Have you been on the sauce?

 

[DC]

I wasn’t trying to pull your leg or be cute. I expected you to just look at the graph to see what I was getting at. Sorry.

This is what I should have posted:

This is a better view of that graph. Actually, it’s two graphs, the bottom one showing both sunspot numbers and solar activity over time from before the Maunder Minimum to the present time with the suggested Minimum lasting until 2100. the top graph shows the total solar irradiance (TSI) or sunshine over the same time period.
http://www.gao.spb.ru/english/astrometr/sa_tsi_1600_en.jpg

Well no.

According to Prof Jones “there has been no statistically significant warming since 1995”
http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-s...s-stunning-global-warming-revelations-ignored

Actually, the global temperature data is under a cloud, so to speak. Scroll back to my replies to RC at the start of my posts today.

Here’s more of what I mean:

GISTEMP Movie Matinées
"Prior to being corrupted adjusted in the year 2000, this is what the GISS US temperature graph looked like.
http://climateinsiders.files.wordpress.com/2010/07/nasapre1999.jpg?w=510&h=363


The 1930s was by far the hottest decade. After being “adjusted” in the year 2000, it magically changed shape. The 1990s became much warmer. 1998 added almost half a degree – ex post facto."
http://climateinsiders.files.wordpress.com/2010/07/nasapost1999-jpg.gif?w=510&h=374

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/07/23/gistemp-movie-matinees/


GISS Surface Temperature Analysis
Station Data
"In our analysis, we can only use stations with reasonably long, consistently measured time records. This is a subset of the full list of stations (copied from GHCN's website and augmented from SCAR). That subset of list of stations that contribute to the final products may slightly change with each update, as the number of stations that get dropped due to the shortness of their temperature record may decrease when new data are added."

b) the number of reporting stations as a function of time,

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/station_data/
I can try.

Joe Bastardi: “Days Of Thinking Warm, Warm, Warm Are Over” By P Gosselin on 7. January 2011
1. Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The cycles of warm and cold in the Pacific move in 30-year phases. In the warm phase, we see more El Ninos, which boost the earth’s temperature, see Figure 1. Recently we have flipped back to the cold phase, which means more La Ninas ahead, which means a cooler planet.
http://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/pdoindex_small.gif

2. Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation has major impacts globally. Right now we are in the middle of the warm phase, but are now on the way down for the next 10 to 20 years, see Figure 2. Strangely the phases are interrupted at about their midpoints. Perhaps we’ve hit one of these midpoint interruptions.
http://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/AMO.gif

Figure 2: AMO will be likely in decline from its current warm phase over the next 10 to 20 years.

Both the PDO and AMO show why the globe most likely has warmed about 0.5°C over the last 40 years. Now they give us strong indications of what lies ahead for the next 2 or 3 decades.

Another tiny factor that plays a role in our climate is the sun, believe it or not. Low solar activity has shown to be strongly correlated with cold periods on this planet. Currently, contrary to what was earlier expected by NASA, cycle 24 is turning out to be one of surprisingly low activity. That bodes ill for more cooling.
http://notrickszone.com/2011/01/07/joe-bastardi-days-of-thinking-warm-warm-warm-are-over/

i let others debunk your crap.

i clicked on one link and it was a graph about freaking weather in the US.
we are talking GLOBAL CLIMATE.........

spare me your gospels....

 

[Pixel42]

So haig, when are you going to address the issue of no established protocol or metric for Corbyn's success

As neither Haig nor Corbyn seem inclined to address it, perhaps we could compile our own data? Haig can tell us what Corbyn's specific predictions are, and we can then see if they prove correct.

So far we have:

“Solar-lunar driven major jet stream blocking will continue through January and the whole of 2011 giving more extreme cold and snowy / blizzardy spells in parts of USA, Britain and Europe though January continuing into February and then not the sort of Spring and Summer the warmists want.”

However, he HAS made forecasts about the Queensland floods. “As shown in WA2011NewsNo1* Queensland & Australian floods show a very strong tendency to occur at a certain phase of the 19yr eclipse cycle.” “SIGNIFICANT FLOODS in SouthWest Queensland 25-29 Jan.”

I've left out the forecast for the next fortnight for the UK/Europe, as he could have got that from the Met Office. So translating this into specific predictions:

1. Extreme cold in the USA in January

2. Extreme cold in the USA in February

3. Extreme cold in Britain and Europe in January

4. Extreme cold in Britain and Europe in February

5. A colder than average spring in the USA

6. A colder than average spring in Britain and Europe

7. A colder than average summer in the USA

8. A colder than average summer in Britain and Europe

9. SIGNIFICANT FLOODS in SouthWest Queensland 25-29 Jan

If there are any other predictions I missed buried in the verbiage Haig just posted we can add them to the list, along with any others Haig cares to share with us.

There's a monthly report posted here: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2010/12

which includes a map of global temperature anomalies from which it should be easy to see whether the individual predictions of temperature in 1-8 were correct. The current one for December clearly shows the extreme cold in the UK and Europe, for example. I suggest we define "extreme cold" as at least 3C colder than the 1961-90 baseline used on that map, "colder than average" as at least 1C colder, and significant floods as at least as bad as the floods the poor sods have already experienced.

Let's see if that 80% success rate is really true.

 

[Dancing David]

You've inadvertantly assigned something of Haig's to me, I think .

Looks like that malware's found out where you live ...

Looks like it, I don't always read as carefully as I should.

 

[Dancing David]

I have done DD. You just don’t like the answer. You audit his work. Then you can set as high a standard as you like.

No you did not, you have linked to some sites that say "we find Corbyn remakrkable", no where have you linked to a protocol for blinding and an actual metric for measurement of success.

His work therefore is not ecen linked to a decent protocol. So where is this alleged discussion of the blinding and teh measurement protocol?

 

[Dancing David]

Yip, I noticed that too
I think you've spoke too soon

JAN 2011 Advisory Note issued 14th Jan 2011 for
Britain & Ireland and Europe.

The WeatherAction long range forecasts for the first two weather periods of Jan 2011 namely 1-5th and 6-10th have been reasonably well confirmed, in particular the period 6-10th for Britain & Ireland of a N/NE (cold) vs S/SW (mild) split with mild or very mild air at times attempting but failing to penetrate far North was very skillfully predicted.

However the 7 days 11-17th Jan (comprising periods 11-14th & 15-17th) has seen a continuation of the milder trend and is turning out notably milder than our long range forecast – despite the fact our USA extreme events forecast for same period went very well.

It now appears cold air will start advancing South again from Sunday 16th and the next weather periods starting 18th Jan will be back on track with a return of exceptionally harsh winter weather during the second half of January.
http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=297&c=5

Yes, I was right - you have performed on the stage

Could you give me the "detaqils"

Have you been on the sauce?

Do you know what climate is?

 

[CapelDodger]

Let's see if that 80% success rate is really true.

That seems a very reasonable protocol to me. Lets follow it up.

 

[CapelDodger]

Sure you do.
Piers predicted its start and when it would end.

"As Russia recovers from a record-breaking heatwave followed by fierce storms, RT talks to astrophysicist and solar weather forecaster Piers Corbyn to find out what it all means and if it has anything to do with global warming. 22 August 2010"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pRRXZ1B5foE&feature=related

He simply says he predicted it. He also attributes it to "dramatic changes in solar activity" which nobody else noticed. You are a very trusting soul.

Settled - no but the signs are heading that way.

Signs and portends are really all you've got to fall back on, aren't they?

Do you regard the science settled on AGW?

Of course. Some details of timing and precise regional impacts are yet to be filled-in, but the real world's doing that for us already. Floods in Queensland as the Indian Ocean heats up are no surprise, of course. We all knew that was coming.

Here's what NASA said:

New Solar Cycle Prediction
"Right now, the solar cycle is in a valley--the deepest of the past century. In 2008 and 2009, the sun set Space Age records for low sunspot counts, weak solar wind, and low solar irradiance. The sun has gone more than two years without a significant solar flare."

...

Only of interest to someone who's interested in solar cycles. You believe that solar cycles and climate are the same subject, I get that, but they really aren't.

Have to agree here but Piers has a better record of predictions than most

That's your belief, and I suspect it's unshakeable.

So you actually believe it's just a coincidence that as the number of weather stations drops from 6000 to 1500 and over the same period, the "reported" global temperature goes UP?

Yes. What do you think it is, a conspiracy? Do you think it's a coincidence that the number of stations fell and Arctic sea-ice fell drastically over the same period? Or what?

The stations which are included regularly are those which are equipped to report regularly and automatically. Global warming over the same period is the result of an enhanced greenhouse effect. So yes, coincidence.

Here's where you might be going wrong : the world doesn't respond to the temperature figures produced from NASA weather stations. You seem to think otherwise.

Interesting that science tells us the Earth's natural state is glacial.

Of course it doesn't.

They also reckon this short inter-glacial period of ours is long over due to end.

Who are they? They're dead wrong. If it were long-overdue it would have happened at least centuries ago, wouldn't it?

What science tells us is that the world would be in a long decline towards the next glaciation in at least another few thousand years. That's the trajectory it was on since the Holocene Maximum before we industrialised on a grand scale. The enhanced greenhouse effect is superimposed on that (which is due to the Milankovich cycles) and has pretty much blown it away now.

So a fantastically small amount of Co2 is going to stop that? You're preparing for the wrong extreme.

From 280ppm to 390ppm is not a small proportion. And it's still going up.

No it's not! It's been growing for the last two decades at least.
It's been much warmer there in the MWP when the Vikings settled in Greenland, you know why they called it that don't you? http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/lia/vikings_during_mwp.html
As they're history tells you they have many times in the past, it's nothing new.

390ppm is unprecedented in human experience. I count that as new.

Nope, not at all, that's just alarmist hype.

Let us know how that works out for you.

It will be much worse in the new Little Ice Age.

Why? We got through the last one perfectly well, and without the technology we can call on now. What's so scary?

Have to agree there if we don't start preparing for a cooling climate for decades to come.

...

That's the warmers on full alarm mode.

And so on and so on, the whole Denial Bingo card filled in at once. You even link to Goddard and Bastardi.

What you're going to have to cope with is reality in the very near term. The world is going to get warmer, and every year Corbyn will have to repeat his predictions that the cooling is just coming, any moment now, the signs are all there. And just like the Rapture it will fail to arrive, despite the signs.

Then one day Corbyn will die, and his secret knowledge will die with him. His cult will survive him by at least your remaining lifetime though, I'll give you that.

 

[CapelDodger]

Do you [Haig] know what climate is?

Haig is clearly new to this whole subject, and has come to it through his discovery of Corbyn. It's the most intellectually exciting thing that's ever happened to him and he will never let it go. Classic cultist behaviour.

It's worth following Corbyn, though, just for the giggle factor. He'll get increasingly loopy and then he'll die . What's not to enjoy?

(I've never pretended to be a nice person.)

 

[Reality Check]

Excuse this and other late posts I’ve been too busy to reply, until now.
He does his best, it’s just him and a small team working from a tiny office in London and you want him to cover the whole world? Get real RC.

Piers Corbyn is doing his best to kill people because he is keeping his methods a secret.
You realize that you are confirining that he is immoral with "just him and a small team working from a tiny office in London". A good person would realize that his limited resources are killing people !
As for "cover the whole world":

Thank you for confirning (from you enormous expertise in how PC does his predictions ) that how dumb the method is.
Real climate models cover the entire globe.
PC's sectret method relies on his cherry poicked regions.
​

Get real Haig.

However, he HAS made forecasts about the Queensland floods. http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=296&c=5

That is totally idiotic of Piers Corbyn:

• No one claims that the floods were caused by CO2. That his delusion.
• He lies: (KNOWN FLOODS IN THE BRISBANE & BREMER RIVER BASIN
  The last flood comparable to the current flood happened in January 1974 not 1973. There was a smaller separate flood 6 months earlier in 1973 which Piers cherry picks.

There is his usual vagueness which is typical of a crank:

• Just how probable is a "tendency"? 10%? 50%? 90%?
• What severity of flood is he predictions?

And then the total stupidity of thinking that the Moon affects weather !

Nope RC.I haven’t the time, maybe you could do it?

Nope, Haig - you are the person asserting without any evidence that Piers Corbyn can do any better than random guesses. You have the responsibility to provide the evidence if Piers Corbyn cannot.
"Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence"

If someone can predict the weather and climate weeks, months and even up to a year in advance, using the influences of the Sun modulated by the Moon, then that means AGW is NOT significant and the carbon tax to save the planet is a con.

That is wrong.
You need to start by providing the the evidence that the lunatic rolleyesand immoral Piers Corbyn can do those prediction. You have failed to do so far other.

N.B. You may be tempted to continue to spam this thread with his predictions and the audits of (some?) of them.
That is not scientific evidence. That is his publicity.
​

After that overturn the simple physics that CO2 absorbes light at on frequence and transmits it at another (i.e. is a green house gas).

 

[tusenfem]

I've left out the forecast for the next fortnight for the UK/Europe, as he could have got that from the Met Office. So translating this into specific predictions:

1. Extreme cold in the USA in January

2. Extreme cold in the USA in February

3. Extreme cold in Britain and Europe in January

4. Extreme cold in Britain and Europe in February

5. A colder than average spring in the USA

6. A colder than average spring in Britain and Europe

7. A colder than average summer in the USA

8. A colder than average summer in Britain and Europe

9. SIGNIFICANT FLOODS in SouthWest Queensland 25-29 Jan

If there are any other predictions I missed buried in the verbiage Haig just posted we can add them to the list, along with any others Haig cares to share with us.

Wow, and here in Austria we're having spring weather already for a week!
Guess Austria is not a part of Europe?
Ah well, not that Haig or Corbyn would know.

 

[tusenfem]

It's been much warmer there in the MWP when the Vikings settled in Greenland, you know why they called it that don't you? http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/lia/vikings_during_mwp.html
As they're history tells you they have many times in the past, it's nothing new.

My gawd, Haig do you even read the links you post? (better yet have you had a history education?

Why did Eric the Red call it Greenland?

From your link:

He called this new land "Greenland" because he "believed more people would go thither if the country had a beautiful name," according to one of the Icelandic chronicles (Hermann, 1954) although Greenland, as a whole, could not be considered "green." Additionally, the land was not very good for farming. Nevertheless, Eric was able to draw thousands to the three areas shown in Fig. 15.

 

[Haig]

As neither Haig nor Corbyn seem inclined to address it, perhaps we could compile our own data? Haig can tell us what Corbyn's specific predictions are, and we can then see if they prove correct.

So far we have:





I've left out the forecast for the next fortnight for the UK/Europe, as he could have got that from the Met Office. So translating this into specific predictions:

1. Extreme cold in the USA in January

2. Extreme cold in the USA in February

3. Extreme cold in Britain and Europe in January

4. Extreme cold in Britain and Europe in February

5. A colder than average spring in the USA

6. A colder than average spring in Britain and Europe

7. A colder than average summer in the USA

8. A colder than average summer in Britain and Europe

9. SIGNIFICANT FLOODS in SouthWest Queensland 25-29 Jan

If there are any other predictions I missed buried in the verbiage Haig just posted we can add them to the list, along with any others Haig cares to share with us.

There's a monthly report posted here: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2010/12

which includes a map of global temperature anomalies from which it should be easy to see whether the individual predictions of temperature in 1-8 were correct. The current one for December clearly shows the extreme cold in the UK and Europe, for example. I suggest we define "extreme cold" as at least 3C colder than the 1961-90 baseline used on that map, "colder than average" as at least 1C colder, and significant floods as at least as bad as the floods the poor sods have already experienced.

Let's see if that 80% success rate is really true.

Would be interesting if an exercise, like this, was actually carried out!

Haven't had the time for any of this lately but a skim through Piers Corbyns site shows he's doing well:-

What the sun was doing for the simultaneous superstorms end Jan – start Feb & WHAT NEXT for world weather?
Piers Corbyn warns of three world top red warning notably dangerous weather periods –
around Feb 10-12, 14-15, & 27-28

http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=305&c=5

Comments submitted - 1 Add your comment
On 05 Feb 2011, Scott CD wrote:

Thanks for the heads up Piers. I wish BBC would listen to you and use your forecasts as well as met office - which of late bears little resemblance to the actual weather, even a day ahead. Cheers and well done

 

[Pixel42]

Would be interesting if an exercise, like this, was actually carried out!

I certainly intend to carry it out.

The NOAA report for January should be posted in the next week or so, we can see whether 1 and 3 were correct then. We can already see that 9 was incorrect.

 

[macdoc]

should this not be in a debunking section....the guy is clearly a crank

 

[Haig]

We can already see that 9 was incorrect.

Your pre-judging the guy a bit here and seem oblivious to the fact that his Australian forecasts were trials.

On 02 Feb 2011, Piers_Corbyn wrote:

John Mac & Rob. THANKS. . Rob, we tend to allow stuff through as long as it is not of mal-intent. There MIGHT be real issues with high flying aircraft and water vapour and there have been cloud-seeding experiments in the past or present but I do not know if anything real is going on now. If there is a place to talk about the issue fully we could direct people there. . . John Mac Yes right I wasnt meaning to say that NW Australia storm was full confirmation of the Indian Ocean part of the forecast but more that the Queensland event certainly is - so original post now amended. In terms of understanding if we are on the right track however the NW storm is important because (i) We had expected TWO storms and (ii) it was in the correct half Ocean (ie Southern Indian Ocean) indicating something was going on there too. Our positioning of events in the S IO is still very vague. My comments on these trials are about seeing if we are advancing rather than 'marking' (others do that) Cheers Piers

http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=303&c=5

To the unbiased it may seem he did remarkably well with "9. SIGNIFICANT FLOODS in SouthWest Queensland 25-29 Jan"

More than 30,000 people have fled Queensland's far-north ahead of tropical Cyclone Yasi,http://article.wn.com/view/2011/02/02/Monster_cyclone_heads_for_Australias_east_coast_1st_Lead/

Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasihttp://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/yasi.shtml

Queensland Weather and Warningshttp://www.bom.gov.au/qld/index.shtml

should this not be in a debunking section....the guy is clearly a crank

Again another harsh comment.

OK, he needs a haircut and is showing, it seems, the SUN determines the weather AND climate on Earth - but that doesn’t make him a crank

 

[Pixel42]

The claim we are testing is that this guy's predictions are correct 80% of the time. I listed the predictions I would be using to test that claim. If you had a problem with any of them (e.g. that one was a "trial", whatever that means) you should have said so before the date for it expired. You don't get to decide a prediction doesn't count after it's been proved false, or to re-interpret it as a prediction of something else entirely just because something else entirely happened to occur shortly afterwards.

Corbyn predicted that there would be significant floods in Queensland between 25th and 29th Jan. I'm sure that if there had been more flooding during those dates you would have been happy to accept it as a hit, "trial" or not. In fact the prediction was 100% wrong. There were no floods in Queensland during that period, despite the fact that this period coincided with high tide. AFAIK the cyclone that occurred in early February produced no significant flooding, though it did do a fair bit of damage.

So the results so far are:

Predictions made: 1
Predictions correct: 0
Success rate: 0%

 

[Haig]

So the results so far are:

Have Your Say
We value your comments

On 08 Feb 2011, Piers_Corbyn wrote:
Patrick, Thanks indeed and looking forward to being of help!

On 08 Feb 2011, Patrick Royston wrote:
I am a biostatistician with a long-standing interest in medical prognosis, and the modelling thereof. I am therefore well aware how formidably difficult is the game of "prediction". I hadn't heard of Piers Corbyn until today, but having viewed some of his YouTube videos and other material, I was delighted to find (a) that he heads a team that appears to provide remarkably accurate long-term weather forecasts, based on interpreting solar activity patterns, and (b) he strongly and scientifically refutes the pathetically inadequate C02 hypothesis espoused by the "warmists". He also has the courage to go public with his views and to provide material exposing some of the flaws in the "climate change" reasoning. I am so impressed that I am considering subscribing my own hard-earned cash to weatheraction.com. Keep up the good work!

On 03 Feb 2011, Piers_Corbyn wrote:
SG. Fair question although there were important successes for January Britain & Ireland:- re relatively milder in West / SW, Scotland cold and more snow - good forecast; and the timing of the milder England turn 6-10th was very good. It stayed mild longer however and the main problem was stratospheric winds - see 28-1-11 VIDEO REPORT which has led to SLAT6 on this site comments From... http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=302&c=5 . . We welcome comments on forecasts although some we get appear to be from Warmists who only assess our mistakes. . . .Amusingly by their actions they admit that for long range forecasts when we are wrong it is news; and when the UK Met Office is right that is news! Cheers Piers

On 02 Feb 2011, S.G. wrote:
Spot on for the US and Australia last month (January), but not for England. What went wrong? And do you think will February be closer to your predictions made back in November, for Western Europe?

On 01 Feb 2011, Lorraine marson wrote:
Congratulations you got Queensland correct and it looks like you are spot on the pound for the Mid west USA tonight 1.2.2011 - this Thunder snow it seems very rare and very strange and more prevalent these days?
http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=48&c=2

The detailed forecast trial statement for this next ET period in Australia is:-

10-13 FEB (esp 11-12th) 2011 ET - Extreme Top Red Period. Formation probability 80%
One or Two Tropical Cyclone Formations likely which could reach TC3 or TC4.
Most probable region NE of Queensland / Coral, Sea landfall / near landfall LIKELY (70%)
Tropical Depression/Cyclone formation is also likely in Southern Indian Ocean NW of Australia.

The full forecasts for Australia/South Indian Ocean and for USA to the end of Feb are available together. Both pdf s are accessed via http://www.weatheraction.com/member.asp - & choose Extreme Events World Exc Europe + Trop Storms.

"Solar-Lunar driven major jet stream and Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone blocking will continue at times through February and indeed the whole of 2011 giving more extreme weather around the world – including further Tropical Cyclone hits and floods in Australia and we will issue forecasts as appropriate", said Piers.

"The CO2 warmists have failed and will continue to fail to predict anything and are a costly millstone holding-back western economies and world development. These extreme dangerous and costly events are nothing whatsoever to do with so called man-made climate change which is failed pseudo-science based on fraudulent data and which has now morphed into a political cult based on nothing other than blind faith and utterly biased and dishonest media propaganda."
"The stance of the BBC and certain arrogant and ignorant newspapers has more in common with the Mubarak regime in Egypt than balanced presentation of evidence-based science and as long as they hold sway the advance of science will be held back and the world will increasingly suffer from wasteful profiteering green plunder".

http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=306&c=5

 

[Pixel42]

having viewed some of his YouTube videos and other material, I was delighted to find (a) that he heads a team that appears to provide remarkably accurate long-term weather forecasts

Evidence?

Do I really need to remind you that the only reason I am doing this exercise of checking reality against Corbyn's predictions is that you have been unable to provide a shred of actual evidence to support this claim of "remarkable accuracy" yourself?

Spot on for the US and Australia last month (January), but not for England.

Evidence?

I intend to use the NOAA report to check the accuracy of Corbyn's January predictions, but it's not up yet. What evidence did the person who assessed them as "spot on" use to make that determination?

Congratulations you got Queensland correct

Evidence?

The only long term prediction for Australia you shared with us was the significant flooding in Queensland at the end of it, and that was 100% wrong.

You do understand that claims of "remarkable accuracy" and being "spot on" are utterly meaningless without the evidence to back them up? If you have such evidence present it, otherwise we will have to continue compiling our own.

Are there any Corbyn predictions you want to add to the list to be checked against reality? As long as they are for at least a month ahead (and hence can't simply have been copied from conventional weather forecasters) I am happy to add them; the more data, the more accurate the assessment of Corbyn's hit rate.