Guede and the break in
So as I see it there are a few possibilities for the break in:
- There was no faked break in. Police were over generalizing from a few scraps.
- Guede fakes the break in, to throw investigators off the fact he was invited in by Meredith.
- AK fakes the break in.
- To throw investigators off the fact that she, Rudy and RS were all together when the homicide started
- To cover up for Raffaele having killed Meredith
- Other reason?
- The boys downstairs faked the break in.
- Filomona or Laura faked the break in.
- A previous renter who still had keys faked the break in (homocide was likely drug related).
- Another unrelated perp used some technique to get in and faked the break in to cover that up.
Am I missing any big ones?
The argument for 3a is that there is some evidence that Amanda didn't like to clean much but on Nov 2nd was doing a lot of cleaning. But even if we accept the cleaning as being homicide related I could see excess cleaning being consistent with 3b, 3c, 4, 5 as well as 3a.
So basically you have to be essentially certain that Amanda was engaging in excess cleaning to even try to exclude 1, 2, 6, 7. And even then I'm not sure. For example there may have been no faked breaking Amanda was destroying evidence, and the rock was part of faking a window that got broken in the struggle. I.E. excess cleaning & 1 at the same time.
Now there are two pieces of evidence for the excess cleaning:
i) The bathroom was cleaned but the murder room with Rudy's DNA was not.
ii) Amanda and Raffaele talk about the mop and were seen with a mop.
The problem is (i) is fully consistent with, no break in trying to frame Rudy from 3a, 3b, 3c, 4, 5, 6, 7 with the intent to leave Rudy's DNA behind. It is also consistent with 1 or 2 if the perp just ran out of time (which is what people theorize happened with 3a anyway).
So really that leaves the mop as evidence. The broken pipe with the mop traveling all over town seems like an unlikely (not impossible but unlikely) story. If we assume its false: 3a, 3b, 3c, 4, 5, same as above. And those are the situations which give Amanda as accessory after the fact. It doesn't prove murder but it does prove she was involved.
And to complicate things further there is the issue of the body being covered after death. That makes 2, 4, 6 less likely.
So what is the counter argument? And what's the argument for Filomona not being involved?