Continuation - Discussion of the Amanda Knox case

[shuttlt]

Platonov's last post just reminded me of the line in The Naked Gun:

"Doctors say that Nordberg has a 50/50 chance of living, though there's only a 10 percent chance of that."

 

[pilot padron]

It certainly does raise questions, pilot. It seems like a strange thing to say. I wonder where the film ends -- just after the first trial? Then they wouldn't have to film two endings, contingent on what happens in the appeal.

If he is saying it just to be provocative, that could be because no one in Italy has shown any interest in acquiring the film yet. Maybe he thinks if he says the film is about the defendants being guilty, Italians will be more likely to go for it.

Or maybe he means what he says. Which will be funny if they win their appeal.

Yes, Mary, that may very well be an 'or maybe' that I should not have overlooked.

Mr Dornhelm does indeed have a vested interest in how many people watch his production.
Issuing provocative statements would possibly serve this self interest.

My opinion is however that he and his research staff may well have enough confidence in guilt that he feels comfortable not only in making the statement, but that the outcome of the Appeal has little possibility of requiring a 'second ending'.

Only 'citation' for the opinion is that he and Lifetime are expending a considerable amount of resources that common sense would suggest he should have significant foundations for his 'guilty' storyline.

 

[Kaosium]

My wife loves Lifetime and I'm forced to watch it more than I like. The movies are stupid and over-the-top along the lines of...."I survived the brutal abuse of my second husband, learned to love again while finding a cure for a mysterious disease and beating my gambling addiction!"

Melodramatic dreck then?

It seems like this would be an odd way to tell the story. I got the impression from something else I read as well that Lifetime was something like what you've observed. Then again it also said it was going to avoid the murder scene and just tell the rest of it, which I thought might come out fairly good. I think it was you who posted the Youtube of Hayden's interview?

I seem to recall she thought it wouldn't be considered too bad by the family, but who knows with Hollywood. I can understand them doing the bohemian lifestyle overseas and the suspicion to make it interesting, but this piece suggested something different. I kinda liked the idea of it being a mystery and sticking to the facts as known--outside the murder. Oh, well, we will have to see I guess.

 

[platonov]

Originally Posted by odeed

Just did some calculations from the paper used by LondonJohn and Kevin_Lowe, I make P(X>150)=1-0.98790=0.0121 or 1.21% but according to her friends testimony they started eating around 6pm, so there should be at least 98.79% chance of her friends killing her.

Wow, the Perugia police really did get this one wrong!

That's not too far out for some here.

Earlier in the thread there was much grumbling - following Kevin Lowe's initial posting of the ToD theory IIRC - about the fact that MK's English friends weren't subjected to the same level of investigation as AK.

As to why they got it wrong - One of the more gallant of the Foakers, reasoning along the lines of Mary H's Horny cops theory, opined that this was because the friend in Q was 'a dog'.

.

 

[Ampulla of Vater]

No problem.

I'm a woman married to another woman, legally, Massachusetts.

Well I was looking for a clapping smiley face but I can't find one.

CLAP CLAP CLAP

(And I'm a staunch you-know-what but I differ from my party on certain things.)

 

[Machiavelli]

The decisive evidence, as explained in the Massei report, is that there was food in Meredith's stomach but absolutely no food in her duodenum, in fact, no food in her bowel at all except at the very far end.

The very end! Please. You should document what you read. I translated the Massei report, and never found the "very end" specification.
Neither I found Lalli calling this possibility "idiotic".

Sorry Machiavelli, but all of the pizza and all of the apple crumble was still in Meredith's stomach when she was murdered. That puts a nigh-absolute upper limit on her time of death of 10pm and makes it overwhelmingly likely that she was attacked as soon as she got home or very shortly afterwards.

False. You can't prove the premise, and you can't prove the logical link to conclusion.

Appealing to stress to solve the problem gets you precisely nowhere, because even if she was first attacked long before she was murdered, which is not what the forensic evidence indicates anyway, Amanda and Raffaele could not possibly have been present when she was first attacked.

No? And why not? Because of Naruto episode 101?

Why are you talking about stomach emptying? You keep trying to slide away from talking about t(lag), the measurement which is relevant, and trying to sneak in claims about t(1/2) or time until total gastric emptying.

The lag phase is a phase in the subject of stomach emptying, being a step in the process.
The problem here is that you are convinced that the lag phase is the only relevant datum. Your convincement is the problem, because it is unproven. And the concept of lag phase is a second problem, because its variability is too big.

Not this mole again? Could we please get the Machiavelli who was here for this part of the discussion back on the line?

If you are insinuating again things on posters identity this would be probably against a rule. This insinuation, besides being false, cannot be a tool in discussion.

We have the witness statements of Meredith's friends that she took no alcohol with her meal. She may well have had a small amount of wine between when she got home and when she was attacked, or she may just have had alcohol in her system from the previous day

She had alcohol from a recent assumption, this is more than obvious, not from the previous day.

What ingredient in pizza do you think can lead to t(lag) of five hours in a normal, healthy young woman who had eaten a small-to-moderate meal of unknown size of pizza with no maybe, soon after alcohol under relaxed unknown conditions? What scientific paper supports rules out the claim of the opposite?

Or are you bluffing? I suspect, of course, that you are bluffing again and that you once again have absolutely no factual basis for claims which you are trying to present as established facts.

The facts I am talking about are simply more than obvious by a general knowledge of medicine, before even approaching specialized publications of experimental studies.
I can even tell you of myself having a lag phase of 4 hours after a pizza (made no eco-doppler, but digestion delay or block can be felt).
Then, I also in fact did look literature and I don't know what exactly you want to contest. The food is digested by enzymes (not just by chloridric acid) and the chemical composition plays an essential role. For example the assotiation of proteins from caseine (cheese) and meat could double the time of initial phase, because enzymes required are inactivated by residual ammynoacids when used together. Fibers would increas the time in a very significant degree, because fibers take a long time precisely because they have to be boken. Badly cooked bread or badly cooked vegetables can slow the process, because their chemicals are not easilly digestible by human enzymes. Improperly cooked potatoes or not cooked aubercines for example can block the process, because these solenacee plants are not well digestable and even toxic before thermal degradation. Potatoes + wheat can block the procss in some subjects. Grains and milk alone would interfere with the process in some subjects (I cannot easilly digest lactosium for example). Peperoni - another of the solenaceae - would interfere in some subjects. And so on.
There is simply a number of variants unknown.
Actually I think that since you are very interested you could look up yourself for the existence of this literature. How the subject's position (lying or standing) woud interfer with the time of stomach emptying for example. Those areas of variants exist.
The prove they are not present in the case doesn't exist.

But above all, what doesn't exist in this case is the logical meaning that you think you can attribute to time of death, and while in reality you don't need any 5-hours lag time to convict Amanda and Raffaele, in fact you only believe in the powers of Naruto.

 

[pilot padron]

What are they going to do? Cut off his supply of teenage girls?

I'm sure he's quaking in his boots about the Procura of Perugia.

Really ??

Any impartial observer need look no further than Parliamentarian Rocco Girlanda's own statements about his own taxicab dreams, eternal embraces, and future romantic mountain camping and truffle trips, with a currently incarcerated unanimously convicted murderess to easily conclude that some Italian Politicians seem to have various privileged, well tested, unique, unending and certainly unthreatened methods, to 'procure' their personal 'supply'.

 

[Kaosium]

What are they going to do? Cut off his supply of teenage girls?

I'm sure he's quaking in his boots about the Procura of Perugia.

LOL! Now is where it must be pointed out, we had one like that once...

Isn't he the richest man in Italy? Or close?

 

[Machiavelli]

What are they going to do? Cut off his supply of teenage girls?

I'm sure he's quaking in his boots about the Procura of Perugia.

I bet his government will fall by the half of December.
Let's bet an espresso in corso Vannucci.

 

[Machiavelli]

What are they going to do? Cut off his supply of teenage girls?

I'm sure he's quaking in his boots about the Procura of Perugia.

However the meaning is, he cannot make a call to the Procura of Perugia. Whatever they manage do against his party, surely they won't listen to a suggestion from him, about the Knox problem.

 

[Kaosium]

Really ??

Any impartial observer need look no further than Parliamentarian Rocco Girlanda's own statements about his own taxicab dreams, eternal embraces, and future romantic mountain camping and truffle trips, with a currently incarcerated unanimously convicted murderess to easily conclude that Italian Politicians seem to have various privileged, well tested, unique, unending and certainly unthreatened methods, to 'procure' their personal 'supply'.

...and in turn helped dispel the character of 'Foxy Knoxy' in Italy. Thank you, Mr. Girlanda.

 

[Ampulla of Vater]

The very end! Please. You should document what you read. I translated the Massei report, and never found the "very end" specification.
Neither I found Lalli calling this possibility "idiotic".




False. You can't prove the premise, and you can't prove the logical link to conclusion.



No? And why not? Because of Naruto episode 101?




The lag phase is a phase in the subject of stomach emptying, being a step in the process.
The problem here is that you are convinced that the lag phase is the only relevant datum. Your convincement is the problem, because it is unproven. And the concept of lag phase is a second problem, because its variability is too big.



If you are insinuating again things on posters identity this would be probably against a rule. This insinuation, besides being false, cannot be a tool in discussion.



She had alcohol from a recent assumption, this is more than obvious, not from the previous day.





The facts I am talking about are simply more than obvious by a general knowledge of medicine, before even approaching specialized publications of experimental studies.
I can even tell you of myself having a lag phase of 4 hours after a pizza (made no eco-doppler, but digestion delay or block can be felt).
Then, I also in fact did look literature and I don't know what exactly you want to contest. The food is digested by enzymes (not just by chloridric acid) and the chemical composition plays an essential role. For example the assotiation of proteins from caseine (cheese) and meat could double the time of initial phase, because enzymes required are inactivated by residual ammynoacids when used together. Fibers would increas the time in a very significant degree, because fibers take a long time precisely because they have to be boken. Badly cooked bread or badly cooked vegetables can slow the process, because their chemicals are not easilly digestible by human enzymes. Improperly cooked potatoes or not cooked aubercines for example can block the process, because these solenacee plants are not well digestable and even toxic before thermal degradation. Potatoes + wheat can block the procss in some subjects. Grains and milk alone would interfere with the process in some subjects (I cannot easilly digest lactosium for example). Peperoni - another of the solenaceae - would interfere in some subjects. And so on.
There is simply a number of variants unknown.
Actually I think that since you are very interested you could look up yourself for the existence of this literature. How the subject's position (lying or standing) woud interfer with the time of stomach emptying for example. Those areas of variants exist.
The prove they are not present in the case doesn't exist.

But above all, what doesn't exist in this case is the logical meaning that you think you can attribute to time of death, and while in reality you don't need any 5-hours lag time to convict Amanda and Raffaele, in fact you only believe in the powers of Naruto.

Would you please link to where you "also in fact did look literature" because I have researched this extensively (to prove LJ wrong) and this kind of statement is not locatable. Much of what you mention in this whole paragraph does affect lag time but none of it will affect it to any significant degree. Even if she ate 10 pounds of steak and a bottle of wine there would have been something into her duodenum by the 3 hour mark.

 

[odeed]

Wow, the Perugia police really did get this one wrong!

But there's more, say there's a ten minute gap between leaving her friend and time when she was murdered (140 minutes to 150 minutes) I think LondonJohn and Kevin_Lowe are getting at.

P(X<=140)=0.97287 => 97.287% chance of her friends killed her
P(140<X<=150)= 0.98790-0.97287=0.01503 => 1.503% chance being killed in the 10 minute gap.
p(X>150)=1-0.98790=0.0121 => 1.21% chance of being killed afterwards.

 

[Kaosium]

Yes, Mary, that may very well be an 'or maybe' that I should not have overlooked.

Mr Dornhelm does indeed have a vested interest in how many people watch his production.
Issuing provocative statements would possibly serve this self interest.

My opinion is however that he and his research staff may well have enough confidence in guilt that he feels comfortable not only in making the statement, but that the outcome of the Appeal has little possibility of requiring a 'second ending'.

Only 'citation' for the opinion is that he and Lifetime are expending a considerable amount of resources that common sense would suggest he should have significant foundations for his 'guilty' storyline.

I dunno about the 'considerable resources.' I've tried a number of times to find it on IMDB and it doesn't come up at all--at least not linked from Hayden's page. There's a lot of 'familiar' names on her messageboard there, seems they think it will be a career-wrecker.

Anyways, point being, just about everything under production from small independents is usually listed on IMDB, and I found it odd this wasn't. What is the official title anyway, does anyone know?

Is this the one that was supposed to be based on Nadeau's book?

ETA: I found the movie, it's called "Via Della Rosa"--I was looking for something with Amanda's Knox's name in it before

 

[Charlie Wilkes]

I bet his government will fall by the half of December.
Let's bet an espresso in corso Vannucci.

Let's not. I have no reason to doubt you, and I don't care.

 

[platonov]

Platonov's last post just reminded me of the line in The Naked Gun:

"Doctors say that Nordberg has a 50/50 chance of living, though there's only a 10 percent chance of that."

I always liked the earlier O'Brien line - where ' the man in the street' had the idea of everyone staying in bed for a week in every four to help solve the rationing problem. Upon receiving the response that it would certainly effect a saving of 25% our less than numerate hero replied 'Well, I don't know about that, but it would certainly save a quarter.'

Equally apposite here I think

ETA actually MnaG - before a google expert corrects me and causes a derail.

 

[pilot padron]

...and in turn helped dispel the character of 'Foxy Knoxy' in Italy. Thank you, Mr. Girlanda.

... he helped 'dispel' ?????

Seems his privileged jailhouse 'encounters' with Foxy Knoxy would much more accurately be described as:

He exploited
He took advantage of
He cashed in on
He profited from
he used for his own ends
or possibly
he allowed himself to be manipulated by

But hardly did he 'dispel' anything anywhere

 

[Kaosium]

I bet his government will fall by the half of December.
Let's bet an espresso in corso Vannucci.

Will the party of Raffaele's lawyer be the one likely to take power?

 

[Kaosium]

... he helped 'dispel' ?????

Seems his privileged jailhouse 'encounters' with Foxy Knoxy would much more accurately be described as:

He exploited
He took advantage of
He cashed in on
He profited from
he used for his own ends
or possibly
he allowed himself to be manipulated by

But hardly did he 'dispel' anything anywhere

He wrote a book that humanized her. Why do you suppose some people are so very upset with him?

She was the monster that would kill for pizza, now there's a fair amount of evidence, from Girlanda, her old roommate's book, her being referred to as a 'model prisoner' that she is actually not 'Foxy Knoxy.'

 

[platonov]

But there's more, say there's a ten minute gap between leaving her friend and time when she was murdered (140 minutes to 150 minutes) I think LondonJohn and Kevin_Lowe are getting at.

P(X<=140)=0.97287 => 97.287% chance of her friends killed her
P(140<X<=150)= 0.98790-0.97287=0.01503 => 1.503% chance being killed in the 10 minute gap.
p(X>150)=1-0.98790=0.0121 => 1.21% chance of being killed afterwards.

Actually, if you go by London Johns's numbers on the 170 min limit and assume the meal began at 6.00 [as some here did- on the basis of 'conflicting' testimony] -- then there is a 99.9% probability she died 10 mins before she got home.

.