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Continuation - Discussion of the Amanda Knox case

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"One little chap then had a mishap .."

As I said, I'm not interested in engaging you any longer. But I thought I'd point out your statistical error in trying to revise my probabilities.

There's only (by my calculations) around 2% probability that Meredith was still alive at 9pm (150 minutes after eating her meal). This is clearly very improbable (1 person in 50), but since we know that she was indeed alive at T(lag) = 150 min, then we clearly accept it.

To make the analogy to human height, lets use an actual study of adult male height in Australia:

http://jcem.endojournals.org/cgi/content/full/86/9/4147

In this study of 413 adult males, the mean height was 174.1cm (5ft 8.5 inches), with an SD of 7cm (2.8 inches). Now, two SDs from the mean corresponds to the 97.7% point - which is a good comparison for the 98% point for T(lag) = 150min.

So to say that Meredith had a T(lag) of over 150min is analogous to saying that an adult male is at least (174.1 + (2*7)) = 188.1cm tall (= just over 6ft2). Most of us know one or two adult friends who are this height or over, so whilst it's uncommon (1 in 50 of adult males), it's not extremely unlikely.

Now let's look at the 4 SD point on the curve. This corresponds roughly to the 99.95% mark. 174.1 + (4*7) = 202.1cm (= 6ft 7.6 inches). The data suggest that only one per 250 adult men is 6ft 7.6 or taller. And this is probably in keeping with most people's life experiences. I don't think I've ever known anyone this tall, although I've seen a few strangers.

So the question is, if we know that an adult male is at least 6ft 2 tall, what are the odds that he's between 6ft 2 and 6ft 7.6, as opposed to being taller than 6ft 7.6. This research would suggest that he's about 95% likely to be between 6ft 2 and 6ft 7.6.

And exactly the same analysis can be applied to ToD. The only relevant question is this: given that Meredith definitely had a T(lag) of greater than 150 mins, what is the probability (given the experimental data-derived curve) that her T(lag) was between 150 and 170 min. And the answer is the same - 95%. But there's still a 5% chance that T(lag) was greater than 170m. However, this 5% almost all applies to a T(lag) between 170 min and 210 min. The probability of Meredith having a T(lag) of over 210 minutes is virtually zero, for practical purposes. And this corresponds to a ToD of 10pm. And I've always put the absolute upper level of ToD at 10pm for this reason, with my associated view of a high probability that it was before 9.30pm.


:D:D:D:D:D

What a long convoluted post - all the better to slip in a possible withdrawal while accusing me :eek: of getting the maths wrong.

But its nonsense - your stats / maths are not quite right I'm afraid ; indeed on a par with your gastric analysis.

By your earlier post / stats there was a 98% chance MK was dead by 9.00 on your science alone & a 99.9% probability that she was dead by 9.20.

I will happly post it again if necessary and for as long as it takes to put this nonsense to bed for once and for all.

All the above talk of 95 % up to 10.00 or whatever cant make the 98 % figure get any smaller -
& its still 99.9 % by 9.20

Maybe the penny has finally dropped on what the defence docs are claiming ( only claiming - its not scientific fact)
Suddenly all the months of precise calculations with (very tall) lone wolves poring over the literature night after night has been cast aside with a bland statement that 10.00 is the upper bound [& an associated view of a high probability that it was before 9.30pm]

.
 
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Do you know where Lifetime is on your TV? No peeking!

My wife loves Lifetime and I'm forced to watch it more than I like. The movies are stupid and over-the-top along the lines of...."I survived the brutal abuse of my second husband, learned to love again while finding a cure for a mysterious disease and beating my gambling addiction!"
 
Berlusconi and his political allies may feel their interests are well served by allowing the controversy to drag on, sapping the strength and and undermining the credibility of the judiciary.

Berlusconi calls a prosecutor?
The Procura of Perugia is currently putting under indictment the speaker in parliament for his party and two dozen among politicians and buisnessmen his friends:

http://www.corriere.it/cronache 10_novembre_18

The Perugia prosecutors are also indicting executives of the main arms industry brand (Finmeccanica, budget €18billions per year). Now Perugia wants ti indict also the chieaf of a government agency who tried to temper with the investigation.

http://www.mediterraneonline.it/2010/12/01/i-fatti-del-giorno-1-dicembre-2010-sera/
http://it.reuters.com/article/topNews/idITMIE6B00HN20101201


"Volevano fermare il procuratore aggiunto Giancarlo Capaldo che indaga su Finmeccanica e sulle più importanti inchieste della procura capitolina. E’ quanto emerge da alcune intercettazioni telefoniche effettuate dai Ros che riguardano il presidente dell’Enav Luigi Martini e il capo delle relazioni esterne di Finmeccanica Lorenzo Borgogni, che hanno portato la procura di Perugia da aprire un nuovo fascicolo di inchiesta. Borgogni e’ stato ascoltato ieri come teste. "

Berlusconi has built an estate for himself in Antigua, because he knows in a future not far away he will be not able to live close to the Italian judiciary any more.
 
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As I said, I'm not interested in engaging you any longer. But I thought I'd point out your statistical error in trying to revise my probabilities.

There's only (by my calculations) around 2% probability that Meredith was still alive at 9pm (150 minutes after eating her meal). This is clearly very improbable (1 person in 50), but since we know that she was indeed alive at T(lag) = 150 min, then we clearly accept it.

To make the analogy to human height, lets use an actual study of adult male height in Australia:

http://jcem.endojournals.org/cgi/content/full/86/9/4147

In this study of 413 adult males, the mean height was 174.1cm (5ft 8.5 inches), with an SD of 7cm (2.8 inches). Now, two SDs from the mean corresponds to the 97.7% point - which is a good comparison for the 98% point for T(lag) = 150min.

So to say that Meredith had a T(lag) of over 150min is analogous to saying that an adult male is at least (174.1 + (2*7)) = 188.1cm tall (= just over 6ft2). Most of us know one or two adult friends who are this height or over, so whilst it's uncommon (1 in 50 of adult males), it's not extremely unlikely.

Now let's look at the 4 SD point on the curve. This corresponds roughly to the 99.95% mark. 174.1 + (4*7) = 202.1cm (= 6ft 7.6 inches). The data suggest that only one per 250 adult men is 6ft 7.6 or taller. And this is probably in keeping with most people's life experiences. I don't think I've ever known anyone this tall, although I've seen a few strangers.

So the question is, if we know that an adult male is at least 6ft 2 tall, what are the odds that he's between 6ft 2 and 6ft 7.6, as opposed to being taller than 6ft 7.6. This research would suggest that he's about 95% likely to be between 6ft 2 and 6ft 7.6.
And exactly the same analysis can be applied to ToD. The only relevant question is this: given that Meredith definitely had a T(lag) of greater than 150 mins, what is the probability (given the experimental data-derived curve) that her T(lag) was between 150 and 170 min. And the answer is the same - 95%. But there's still a 5% chance that T(lag) was greater than 170m. However, this 5% almost all applies to a T(lag) between 170 min and 210 min. The probability of Meredith having a T(lag) of over 210 minutes is virtually zero, for practical purposes. And this corresponds to a ToD of 10pm. And I've always put the absolute upper level of ToD at 10pm for this reason, with my associated view of a high probability that it was before 9.30pm.

The percentage of males between 6ft2 and 6ft7, which from what you posted would be mean+sd to mean+4*sd will be 15.77% 99.9 % and not 95% you state.

eta: strike that I was not sure what you were doing.

You still cannot compare what Meredith ate and what the research paper did because there is no precise measurement of the food she ate.
 
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Just trow in a few parameters

1.
There is no decisive evidence of digestion being within the lag phase. The evidence of this consists solely in a claim by the defence about ligatures of intestine being made in a way fit in timings and position to determine the whole content was in the stomach. While it was dr. Lalli in person who put a caveat on this. The previous meal having been discontinuous – in fact, two meals at one hour distance – the transit of liquid in the intestine cannot be juste ruled out on the basis of an empty duodenum and first trait.
The innocentisti would say otherwise, but the proof (to me) it lacks.

2.
Fear and stress (of a non extreme kind) show to have the effect of delaying stomach emptying, at any phase. Some studies in animals showed that short stress period would give outcomes like an average delay of 45 minutes for example. But it is known that delays of many hours are possible, simply on the basis of a stimulation of the parasympathetic system (fear, stress)

3.
The position of the person has a greater influence in digestion time, a factor almost overlooked. The stomach emptying of a person who is lying in bed, of the same meal in the same conditions, can be 40-50% slower in average compared to the time the person is standing.

4.
Alcohol can slow down lag phase and digestion in a highly individualized factor (in some extreme subjects a quantity of alcohol could block stomach emptying).

5.
The features of the meal are a huge factor determining whether the stomach emptying will be normal, accelerated, delayed, or if there will be a stomach emptying at all. The size of the meal is not an obvious datum (250g of bread= 400kcal, 100g of butter =900kcal), but above all size and volume don’t have obvious implications. Meals of the same volume or the same calories but with different composition may give totally different outcomes. For example, some meals are not digestible in ‘normal’ times if not well cooked (try to eat a crude potato). The claim by LJ that similar amounts of food are ‘comparable’ is false. Chemical and physical structure/ composition of foods and their association is very different.
 
Given that this analysis indicates that there is only a 2% chance of her being alive when we know she was in fact alive, is that perhaps a reason to wonder whether the analysis is correct? It may be of course, but 2% is small enough that it makes me wonder whether some factor hasn't been missed.

I can see where you're coming from, but I can't see any other factor that would have a dramatic effect on Meredith's digestion pattern. Just as most of us know an adult male who is 6ft 2 inches tall or slightly taller (statistically around 1 in 50 adult males, according to the research I cited), I don't think it's a stretch to believe that Meredith was a member of the 1 in 50 group whose lag time is greater than 150 minutes.
 
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This incoherent mess of a post has nothing to do with the scientific (not legal) experiments John linked to and how they are of no value in regard to Meredith's stomach contents.

Saying it doesn't make it so.

What you need to do is to join the dots yourself and explain how you come to the conclusion that a t(lag) time of five hours is plausible for a normal, healthy young woman having eaten a small-to-moderate sized meal of pizza with no alcohol under relaxed conditions, by citing relevant scientific literature that shows that this is possible.

Until then, you're still arguing that because we don't know the exact thickness of the killer's shoe's soles we can't rule out the possibility that they were four meters tall.
 
1.
There is no decisive evidence of digestion being within the lag phase. The evidence of this consists solely in a claim by the defence about ligatures of intestine being made in a way fit in timings and position to determine the whole content was in the stomach. While it was dr. Lalli in person who put a caveat on this. The previous meal having been discontinuous – in fact, two meals at one hour distance – the transit of liquid in the intestine cannot be juste ruled out on the basis of an empty duodenum and first trait.
The innocentisti would say otherwise, but the proof (to me) it lacks.

2.
Fear and stress (of a non extreme kind) show to have the effect of delaying stomach emptying, at any phase. Some studies in animals showed that short stress period would give outcomes like an average delay of 45 minutes for example. But it is known that delays of many hours are possible, simply on the basis of a stimulation of the parasympathetic system (fear, stress)

3.
The position of the person has a greater influence in digestion time, a factor almost overlooked. The stomach emptying of a person who is lying in bed, of the same meal in the same conditions, can be 40-50% slower in average compared to the time the person is standing.

4.
Alcohol can slow down lag phase and digestion in a highly individualized factor (in some extreme subjects a quantity of alcohol could block stomach emptying).

5.
The features of the meal are a huge factor determining whether the stomach emptying will be normal, accelerated, delayed, or if there will be a stomach emptying at all. The size of the meal is not an obvious datum (250g of bread= 400kcal, 100g of butter =900kcal), but above all size and volume don’t have obvious implications. Meals of the same volume or the same calories but with different composition may give totally different outcomes. For example, some meals are not digestible in ‘normal’ times if not well cooked (try to eat a crude potato). The claim by LJ that similar amounts of food are ‘comparable’ is false. Chemical and physical structure/ composition of foods and their association is very different.

1. Dr Lalli, the defence attorneys and I all disagree.

2. Proven no fear or stress for at least 2.5 hours after eating. Extreme fear (mortal terror) would have had to have started very shortly after Meredith returned home at 9pm if this were to be a factor, and this in itself would change the whole dynamic of the crime.

3. There was some research cited this very evening which demonstrates the complete opposite: posture has no effect on T(lag). Check it out.

4. No alcohol. Residual alcohol equivalent to a glass of wine in the bloodstream, but none in the digestive system.

5. Wrong to anywhere near the degree you are claiming.

Other than that....etc........
 
My wife loves Lifetime and I'm forced to watch it more than I like. The movies are stupid and over-the-top along the lines of...."I survived the brutal abuse of my second husband, learned to love again while finding a cure for a mysterious disease and beating my gambling addiction!"

Not that it's important, but are you male or female? I'm a bit confused.

PS Obviously this is a personal question, and I have no right whatsoever for an answer (and won't be the least bit put out if you choose not to answer, or indeed tell me it's none of my business - which it's not). But just to satisfy my curiosity.....
 
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What you need to do is to join the dots yourself and explain how you come to the conclusion that a t(lag) time of five hours is plausible for a normal, healthy young woman having eaten a small-to-moderate sized meal of pizza with no alcohol under relaxed conditions, by citing relevant scientific literature that shows that this is possible.

The only conclusion I made is that John's links have no scientific significance regarding Meredith's stomach content. Please link to the post where I came to the conclusion that a lag time of five hours is plausible. Oh, that's right, you can't because I never posted that.
 
1.
There is no decisive evidence of digestion being within the lag phase. The evidence of this consists solely in a claim by the defence about ligatures of intestine being made in a way fit in timings and position to determine the whole content was in the stomach. While it was dr. Lalli in person who put a caveat on this. The previous meal having been discontinuous – in fact, two meals at one hour distance – the transit of liquid in the intestine cannot be juste ruled out on the basis of an empty duodenum and first trait.
The innocentisti would say otherwise, but the proof (to me) it lacks.

The decisive evidence, as explained in the Massei report, is that there was food in Meredith's stomach but absolutely no food in her duodenum, in fact, no food in her bowel at all except at the very far end.

The idea that a second meal of crumble could cause the earlier meal of pizza to hightail it through Meredith's entire bowel to the very end is absolutely idiotic on a variety of levels and even suggesting it indicates either mendacity or total ignorance of the relevant facts. Firstly, bowels don't work that way. Secondly, cheese was found in Meredith's stomach and apple crumble does not traditionally contain cheese.

Sorry Machiavelli, but all of the pizza and all of the apple crumble was still in Meredith's stomach when she was murdered. That puts a nigh-absolute upper limit on her time of death of 10pm and makes it overwhelmingly likely that she was attacked as soon as she got home or very shortly afterwards.

2.
Fear and stress (of a non extreme kind) show to have the effect of delaying stomach emptying, at any phase. Some studies in animals showed that short stress period would give outcomes like an average delay of 45 minutes for example. But it is known that delays of many hours are possible, simply on the basis of a stimulation of the parasympathetic system (fear, stress)

Appealing to stress to solve the problem gets you precisely nowhere, because even if she was first attacked long before she was murdered, which is not what the forensic evidence indicates anyway, Amanda and Raffaele could not possibly have been present when she was first attacked.

3.
The position of the person has a greater influence in digestion time, a factor almost overlooked. The stomach emptying of a person who is lying in bed, of the same meal in the same conditions, can be 40-50% slower in average compared to the time the person is standing.

Why are you talking about stomach emptying? You keep trying to slide away from talking about t(lag), the measurement which is relevant, and trying to sneak in claims about t(1/2) or time until total gastric emptying.

Cite a source that says that lying down can lead to t(lag) of five hours in a normal, healthy young woman who had eaten a small-to-moderate meal of pizza with no alcohol under relaxed conditions and you'll have my interest.

4.
Alcohol can slow down lag phase and digestion in a highly individualized factor (in some extreme subjects a quantity of alcohol could block stomach emptying).

Not this mole again? Could we please get the Machiavelli who was here for this part of the discussion back on the line?

We have the witness statements of Meredith's friends that she took no alcohol with her meal. She may well have had a small amount of wine between when she got home and when she was attacked, or she may just have had alcohol in her system from the previous day, but that can't explain a t(lag) of five hours in a normal, healthy young woman who had eaten a small-to-moderate meal of pizza with no alcohol under relaxed conditions.

Greater doses of alcohol have been shown to have a slowing effect on t(lag) which is insufficient to explain the state of Meredith's stomach when she died and we have cited at least one relevant study that I can remember offhand, probably two.

5.
The features of the meal are a huge factor determining whether the stomach emptying will be normal, accelerated, delayed, or if there will be a stomach emptying at all. The size of the meal is not an obvious datum (250g of bread= 400kcal, 100g of butter =900kcal), but above all size and volume don’t have obvious implications. Meals of the same volume or the same calories but with different composition may give totally different outcomes. For example, some meals are not digestible in ‘normal’ times if not well cooked (try to eat a crude potato). The claim by LJ that similar amounts of food are ‘comparable’ is false. Chemical and physical structure/ composition of foods and their association is very different.

Really?

What ingredient in pizza do you think can lead to t(lag) of five hours in a normal, healthy young woman who had eaten a small-to-moderate meal of pizza with no alcohol under relaxed conditions? What scientific paper supports this claim?

Or are you bluffing? I suspect, of course, that you are bluffing again and that you once again have absolutely no factual basis for claims which you are trying to present as established facts.
 
Not that it's important, but are you male or female? I'm a bit confused.

PS Obviously this is a personal question, and I have no right whatsoever for an answer (and won't be the least bit put out if you choose not to answer, or indeed tell me it's none of my business - which it's not). But just to satisfy my curiosity.....

No problem. :)

I'm a woman married to another woman, legally, Massachusetts.
 
Mr Dornhelm, the director of the upcoming Film to be shown on American TV channel Lifetime, presently being filmed and starring Hayden Panterette had this to say:

"The film will tell the psychological journey that leads to Amanda Knox and Raffaele Sollecito to kill Meredith Kercher"

Hmmmm.

Stimulates many conjectures, doesn't it?<snip>

At last per chance, all here will be able to see in full hour long detail yet another detailed 'theory' of how Meredith was horribly murdered by Amanda, Raffie, and Rudy.

Repeated for emphasis;

Mr Dornhelm said:"The film will tell the psychological journey that leads to Amanda Knox and Raffaele Sollecito to kill Meredith Kercher"


It certainly does raise questions, pilot. It seems like a strange thing to say. I wonder where the film ends -- just after the first trial? Then they wouldn't have to film two endings, contingent on what happens in the appeal.

If he is saying it just to be provocative, that could be because no one in Italy has shown any interest in acquiring the film yet. Maybe he thinks if he says the film is about the defendants being guilty, Italians will be more likely to go for it.

Or maybe he means what he says. Which will be funny if they win their appeal.
 
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The only conclusion I made is that John's links have no scientific significance regarding Meredith's stomach content.

You can "conclude" whatever you like, but that doesn't cut any ice unless you present a reason that a sane and well-informed person should share this view of yours that all of the scientific papers we have cited can not possibly tell us anything about Meredith's time of death.

You could equally well "conclude" that unless you know the exact make and size of shoe that I am wearing right now then I could equally well be forty centimetres tall or four metres tall, and absolutely no amount of evidence regarding the range of human heights found in people wearing different kinds of shoes can be in any way relevant.

Please link to the post where I came to the conclusion that a lag time of five hours is plausible. Oh, that's right, you can't because I never posted that.

So what exactly are you trying to argue for again? If you aren't defending the Massei time of death, where the heck do you think you are going?
 
The percentage of males between 6ft2 and 6ft7, which from what you posted would be mean+sd to mean+4*sd will be 15.77% 99.9 % and not 95% you state.

eta: strike that I was not sure what you were doing.

You still cannot compare what Meredith ate and what the research paper did because there is no precise measurement of the food she ate.

Just did some calculations from the paper used by LondonJohn and Kevin_Lowe, I make P(X>150)=1-0.98790=0.0121 or 1.21% but according to her friends testimony they started eating around 6pm, so there should be at least 98.79% chance of her friends killing her.
 
Just did some calculations from the paper used by LondonJohn and Kevin_Lowe, I make P(X>150)=1-0.98790=0.0121 or 1.21% but according to her friends testimony they started eating around 6pm, so there should be at least 98.79% chance of her friends killing her.

Wow, the Perugia police really did get this one wrong!
 
(..)

I'm not sure what you're trying to say.
Rinaldi botched perspective correction (on a tile he measured) and was sent home to do it again. That's a fact.

False. I tried to explain you what instad Rinaldi did. But you removed it.


Altough his intial measurement was too big his corrected measurements were even bigger and miraculously fitted exactly what prosecution needed. He was unable to explain how he did it, and you were unable, too. That's another fact.

The fact instead is, I was able to give measurements - made by myself - that where significantly closer to Rinaldi's, and explained how I did, and then also I showed that to obtain measurements of the kind of Rinaldi's based on the picture is possible (while to obtain Vinci's result it is not). I also explained the principles of perspective correction, and the principles do explain the method by which a perspective correction can be obtained. I told you there is an angle that can be measured and reference points that can be shifted after having calculated the deformation of a grid. I told you the kind of result you would obtain if the angle is 20°. But you removed this explanation made in quite clear terms. I don't know why you chose to remove it from your reasoning and only see what the defence says.


Conjure away :)
What is entirely sufficient to make me believe AK and RS are innocent is that the break-in was not staged. But that's simple logic.

But the break in appears to be staged.
1. The rear balcony is the logical point of entry. Even if you would state it is more exposed to car sight, this assessment is false and quite ludicrous. The rear balconi is mor far from the road, it is in the dark, it is covered by a building, a person on a balcony won't be noticed as anything suspicious, the door-window had its shutters open, the climbing and the entrance is extremely easy and quick and non dangerous. Any burglar would enter though the terrace window or the kitchen balcony window. To me this is simply obvious.
2. Crumbles of white paint from the window shutters in Filomena's room had fallen on top of clothes that were tossed on the floor.
3. The big stone was found inside a paper bag that had fallen on top of clothes.
4. The drawers were not opened, not searched and not touched by the burglar. A burglar who looks for money would look first in drawers, and in drawers of all rooms. Searching a drawer takes ten to twenty seconds. I don't believe the burglar could be interrupted in this job before this time. Nor that has to go to the toilet before this time (and after having opened the cupboard and tossed clothes on the floor).
5. The room was strewn with clothes and this is a nonsense activity for a burglar, while no valuables were taken, even if easily transportable. There is nothing useful in searching Filomena’s sweaters in her wardrobe.
6. There is no trace of soil and no trace of grass in Filomena’s room. Nor in the victim’s room. And this is not realistic in a true break in thought that window.
7. There are no shoeprints on the soil beneath the window. And this is impossible is someone steps in the area below the window.
8. The shutters were almost closed, and the window is 145 cm distant from the house corner, thus an entrance from that side would be quite dangerous.
9. There was no trace of soil on the external wall, nor on the sill.
10. No biological traces of Rudy Guede were found in Filomena’s room, on the glass shards, on the window frame, neither fingerprints of any kind, neither traces of glass removal and stepping on glass.
11. The opening of the window from the outside is dangerous and difficult even after braking the glass, mainly because the intruder doesn’t have a place to balance his body, to crouch, and would have to stick an arm though a guillotine shaped glass to reach the window latch. This operation is not feasible and not justified for a burglar.
12. There are no glass fragments in Merediths room (except one, but rather big). Someone instead did have small fragments on his cloths, but walked toward the kitchen.

Everything in the MoF case points out to a single psycho serial killer.
The satanic cult ritual murders explanation is a projection of a specific midset. A mindset inclined both toward conspiracy theories and eager for a witch hunt. Always seeking hidden truths and interpreting every neutral fact as meaningful and covering sinister and mischievous deeds. What is worrying is that such a mindset could prevail in a modern first world country not only among simple people but also in some official circles and apparently among some well educated. I think AK and RS felt victim to such a CT and witch hunt thinking, too.

Three people were found guilty of being implicated in the murders. The saying “compagni di merende” was born with this case. In the end, there was not so much mystery left actually. But testimonies gave reasons to believe the people implicated were four. A kind of satanism was brought in by witnesses – mainly prostitutes - who knew the defendants. And this would be not the only case in Italy of serial murders committed by a group inspired by satanic rituals. I am not able to express a definitive assessment on the MoF case. But certainly I would never state this is ‘certainly’ the work of a single killer.
 
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Berlusconi calls a prosecutor?
The Procura of Perugia is currently putting under indictment the speaker in parliament for his party and two dozen among politicians and buisnessmen his friends:

http://www.corriere.it/cronache 10_novembre_18

The Perugia prosecutors are also indicting executives of the main arms industry brand (Finmeccanica, budget €18billions per year). Now Perugia wants ti indict also the chieaf of a government agency who tried to temper with the investigation.

http://www.mediterraneonline.it/2010/12/01/i-fatti-del-giorno-1-dicembre-2010-sera/
http://it.reuters.com/article/topNews/idITMIE6B00HN20101201


"Volevano fermare il procuratore aggiunto Giancarlo Capaldo che indaga su Finmeccanica e sulle più importanti inchieste della procura capitolina. E’ quanto emerge da alcune intercettazioni telefoniche effettuate dai Ros che riguardano il presidente dell’Enav Luigi Martini e il capo delle relazioni esterne di Finmeccanica Lorenzo Borgogni, che hanno portato la procura di Perugia da aprire un nuovo fascicolo di inchiesta. Borgogni e’ stato ascoltato ieri come teste. "

Berlusconi has built an estate for himself in Antigua, because he knows in a future not far away he will be not able to live close to the Italian judiciary any more.

What are they going to do? Cut off his supply of teenage girls?

I'm sure he's quaking in his boots about the Procura of Perugia.
 
Yes - I think there's testimony that Meredith sprinted home completely naked, stopping only to ensure that her skin temperature dropped to the ambient air temperature first. :rolleyes:

Meredith strolled home with her friend Sophie Purton. They left the friends' house at around 8.40-8.45pm. Which was already around two and a quarter hours after the start of the pizza meal. And during those two and a quarter hours, Meredith had been predominantly sitting (or maybe even lying down) watching a DVD with her friends and chatting.

Nobody's claiming that Meredith's circumstances (meal size and constituents, post-prandial activity) exactly mirror experimental conditions. But they are not significantly different in any regard, and this is why it's reasonable to apply the experimental findings with Meredith's situation. But even if we apply an extremely generous 25% correcting factor, it still becomes extremely unlikely that Meredith died any later than 10pm, and virtually impossible that she died any later than 10.30pm.


Hold on :jaw-dropp what kind of 'science' is this [ just spotted it now ]

In your earlier post you were claiming a 99.9 % probability of ToD before 9.20.

Now a mere hour after the potential problems with this were pointed out, you suddenly apply a 25% correction to your very precise calculations [which were based on the 'literature'] and push the ToD range back to 10 or 10.30.

Its rather like claiming with a probability of 99.9% that a particular lone wolf is precisely 1.793 m tall (and not 1 mm taller), give or take 0.450 m :)

ETA The fact that those 10.30 & 10.00 times coincide with what was posted regarding the defence claims in the trial and appeal docs is just a coincidence I take it ?

.
 
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