Continuation - Discussion of the Amanda Knox case

[RoseMontague]

I cannot estimate it in numeric value, as I am neither a DNA expert nor a statistician. However, I can, as a scientifically literate, educated person, estimate that the likelihood of AK's DNA being in even one of exactly those three spots (five, in the whole house) is very small. People do not generally leave their DNA around their house, on every surface. Dead skin cells that exfoliate do not generally have DNA. To get my DNA on my sink, for instance, I would have to rub my fingers on the sink, or wash my hands quite vigorously, and the DNA would probably wash down the drain, unless contained within a drop of blood of someone I had just murdered.

Then, realize that each instance of improbability must be multiplied by each other instance, as statistics tell us (I may not be a statistician, but I have taken both undergrad and graduate level statistics classes). Thus a small, very tiny improbability multiplied by itself 5 times, is almost infinitesimal.

If each instance were, say, one chance in ten-thousand (that's just a rough estimate; it would be much less for Amanda's DNA to be on Filomena's floor); multiplied five times by itself, that gives (10⁴)⁵ = 10²⁰. That's one chance in 10²⁰, or one chance in 100 quintillion.

Odds not good that Amanda's DNA got there by chance, in other words.

Seems to me to be a special pleading to the powers¹⁹ that be.

What I would like to know is the actual evidence that Amanda's DNA was not on the floor already at the time those Luminol prints were established (whenever that was). To get an idea of the odds of this I would think that testing some random areas of the floor that were not shown to be luminol positive would be in order.

http://tlt.its.psu.edu/suggestions/international/bylanguage/mathchart.html

 

[Machiavelli]

The first of these has pictures of the shoe prints found on paper. There are several of them, but he only identifies where one of them was found. As far as I know, they don't match any shoes that were examined, and no one has tried to link them to the crime.

The first Rinaldi report is missing from these files. Those are respectively the second Rinaldi report (May 30.) and the photos attached to the second Rinaldi report.
But there is a report on the bathmat print, here missing.

 

[Machiavelli]

As far as I know, they don't match any shoes that were examined, and no one has tried to link them to the crime.

But they have been part of the investigation though, and as far as I know, for judge Micheli they could be part of the material on which he based his conclusion about "presence of more than one person on the scene of crime".
In fact it is had to imagine these shoeprints as non contextual to the crime, as they happen to be on sheets of paper fallen on the floor in both Meredith and in Filomena's room, and some are produced in a light reddish diluted substance.
They are obviously not from Rudy's shoes. And they are from two people.

 

[RoseMontague]

But they have been part of the investigation though, and as far as I know, for judge Micheli they could be part of the material on which he based his conclusion about "presence of more than one person on the scene of crime".
In fact it is had to imagine these shoeprints as non contextual to the crime, as they happen to be on sheets of paper fallen on the floor in both Meredith and in Filomena's room, and some are produced in a light reddish diluted substance.
They are obviously not from Rudy's shoes. And they are from two people.

I recall reading a claim in a news story that a footprint was found on a postcard on the floor in Filomena's room. If anyone can find a link to that one, seems to elude me this morning. I am certainly interested in seeing this as well, Charlie and Michiavelli, if either of you can find anything more on this.

 

[christianahannah]

I recall reading a claim in a news story that a footprint was found on a postcard on the floor in Filomena's room. If anyone can find a link to that one, seems to elude me this morning. I am certainly interested in seeing this as well, Charlie and Michiavelli, if either of you can find anything more on this.

From the motivations page 336:

• Exhibit Q (Romanelli’s room): two prints left by the superimposition of dust on a postcard were found. Print number 1, left by a right shoe and the sole useful for negative comparisons, was not produced by any of the shoes tested

The Q marker is located on the blue rug in Filomena's room on which there are two papers.

 

[christianahannah]

facebook.com/pages/Amanda-Knox-and-Raffaele-Sollecito/106344459390034?v=photos#!/photo.php?pid=383948&id=106344459390034

facebook.com/pages/Amanda-Knox-and-Raffaele-Sollecito/106344459390034?v=photos#!/photo.php?pid=383943&id=106344459390034&fbid=158997610791385


In the above photos the first one clearly shows that the jacket was turned inside out. This same jacket had Rudy Guede's DNA on the left cuff an was found on the floor by the wardrobe and Meredith's body. AND unbelievably was left behind and only retrieved and tested on Dec 18Th.

The second photo shows the clothes that were found on the floor with Meredith. In the upper right hand corner is the jacket by the wardrobe, hidden by the comforter in this photo. Down from that by a rug that got pushed across the floor are the shoes - you can see a bit of the red from the Pumas. The shoes were near a lot of blood but only had a bit on them. Also on top of the rug is the beige cloth purse that Meredith used that night. In the middle of the loop of the purse you can see one of the socks. Continuing on clockwise are the brown underwear, bra and jeans. Her long sleeved t-shirt was pushed over her breasts. Everything that Meredith was wearing that night was surrounding her body. Rudy Guede pulled the jacket off of her and inverted the sleeves. The shoes were found in the same area with one still tied. If she had removed the jacket and shoes before the attacked they wouldn't have been found also surrounding her body.

With regards to the first photo you link you may be correct, however, I cannot tell whether the jacket is inside out from both photos. I cannot access your second photo. The photos of the shoes I have seen show very little blood. The rug seems out of place to me. The rugs in the other girls bedrooms are next to their beds, I assume as not stand on the cold tile when getting out of bed. Meredith's is over towards the middle of the room. Obviously, the duvet and the pillow are not where they normally are.

As I stated, perhaps Charlie can shed more light on these things.

 

[Fuji]

Isn't it funny, a convicted murderer prosecuted by a convicted criminal

And also by Manuela Comodi.

 

[Fuji]

1) A fascist society, of the type described by Mussolini, might rather imprison 1000 people than let one guilty person go free.

Of what possible relevance is this to a discussion of the Meredith Kercher case?

2) Just as birds quickly lose their ability to fly, if it is not needed for survival, so too man is losing his ability to think. Do you know man's brain is smaller, by the size of a tennis ball, than the brain of our ancestors.

On what basis do you make the assertion that "man is losing his ability to think"? As stated, your argument contains the seed of its own nullification.

3) I'm beginning to think that one needs an IQ of more than 120 (the average college graduate) to be able to recognize patterns sufficiently to solve a case like this.

This is another unfounded assertion.

Mankind could be headed for disaster if this trend should continue; this case should be an easy innocent finding. However, I admit, the false DNA evidence threw me for awhile.

Another highly tendentious claim to compound your earlier unfounded assertion.

 

[Machiavelli]

I recall reading a claim in a news story that a footprint was found on a postcard on the floor in Filomena's room. If anyone can find a link to that one, seems to elude me this morning. I am certainly interested in seeing this as well, Charlie and Michiavelli, if either of you can find anything more on this.

There is a bit more than a postcard. There were seven postcards or paper sheets were found on the floor, in both Meredith's and Filomena's room, maybe one in the kitchen, with a total number of at least 11-12 shoeprints from two different shoes, none of those was Guede's.
Those are visible in the first pdf lnk posted by Charlie Wilkens.

 

[Justinian2]

"Your perspective implies that no one acting in good faith would question the verdict, so the people who are doing so must be paid shills."

My perspective is that plenty of people have questioned the verdict,, but only their poiint of view is put across on shows such as Oprah.

It seems like your desire is that a world government should always automatically win in any and all fights with an individual or a family. Unfortunately that is a purely bigoted wish as extended tests have shown that prejudice starts with the view that the minority is wrong and evil.

Thanks for exposing the prejudices of your hidden mind.

 

[Fuji]

There's just no damn reason, or any precedent in human history, for a pair of ordinary young people six days into an ordinary relationship to watch Amelie, pop over to the girl's place and then decide out of the blue to team up with a local crim they knew only by sight they met at that spot to sexually assault and murder their housemate.

...

However if you take away the drug-fuelled sex party fantasy, what's left as a story? Absolutely nothing, as far as I can see. No motive, no logic, and no precedent in human history.

These are very strong claims. I think you would have to agree that factual claims should be backed up by citations. When possible you should cite the peer-reviewed scientific literature, however failing that popular and non-reviewed sources are better than nothing.

Thanks in advance for your forthcoming citations.

 

[Fuji]

Perhaps I share the same Irish, Scotch, English and German genes that Amanda has because I understand her perfectly and know she is telling the truth.

...

Same for her other mannerisms; I understand them all because I understand myself.

On what scientific basis do you reach this understanding?

 

[Justinian2]

Originally Posted by Justinian2
1) A fascist society, of the type described by Mussolini, might rather imprison 1000 people than let one guilty person go free.

Of what possible relevance is this to a discussion of the Meredith Kercher case?

Ha! You call it the Meredith Kercher case!

Whatever. The implication is that you do not see anything wrong imprisoning people, such as AK and RS, if there is even one in a thousand chance of their being actually guilty. Your implied dogma is that anybody that might be guilty of murder should be in jail. Mussolini's original Fascist documents show that Fascism also believed in the authority of government. This is Italy, is it not? Some of the disproven old beliefs still prevail.

Since the witch trials of Massachusetts, I have never seen a woman in America treated as horribly by the press, government and the people as Amanda has. In fact one has to go back to the 1950's in the deep south to find prejudice against accused black men to find anything comparable in America.

 

[christianahannah]

There is a bit more than a postcard. There were seven postcards or paper sheets were found on the floor, in both Meredith's and Filomena's room, maybe one in the kitchen, with a total number of at least 11-12 shoeprints from two different shoes, none of those was Guede's.
Those are visible in the first pdf lnk posted by Charlie Wilkens.

One can locate in photos where the postcard/papers were in Filomena's room. Do you know where the papers were located on the floor in Meredith's room.

I have looked at the photos in Rinaldi's report of the shoeprints. Do you know if any blood was found on the papers?

 

[Justinian2]

On what scientific basis do you reach this understanding?

On the part of my quote you deleted. The court equivocates what a witness sees to fact.

 

[tsig]

And Oprah is a billionaire. Marriott can't buy her. She did that program because she believes Amanda and Raffaele are innocent.

And what Oprah believes we should also believe.

 

[Machiavelli]

I have looked at the photos in Rinaldi's report of the shoeprints. Do you know if any blood was found on the papers?

I don't have information. I don't know if they were ever tested. Possibly Charlie Wilkens could have the file list of items tested for DNA / blood and results, but I don't have the original list.
I don't have neither the April 2008 Rinaldi report, which is cited several times in this second report.

 

[loverofzion]

It seems like your desire is that a world government should always automatically win in any and all fights with an individual or a family. Unfortunately that is a purely bigoted wish as extended tests have shown that prejudice starts with the view that the minority is wrong and evil.

Thanks for exposing the prejudices of your hidden mind.

What??
Whoever said anything about a "world government" (whatever that might be) "automatically win"...against a family or individual.
Huh?
How does offering a differing opinion constitute prejudice?
And what does this have to do with minorities being viewed as evil?

I think you need to present your arguments such as they are a bit more presciently.

 

[loverofzion]

Ha! You call it the Meredith Kercher case!

Whatever. The implication is that you do not see anything wrong imprisoning people, such as AK and RS, if there is even one in a thousand chance of their being actually guilty. Your implied dogma is that anybody that might be guilty of murder should be in jail. Mussolini's original Fascist documents show that Fascism also believed in the authority of government. This is Italy, is it not? Some of the disproven old beliefs still prevail.

Since the witch trials of Massachusetts, I have never seen a woman in America treated as horribly by the press, government and the people as Amanda has. In fact one has to go back to the 1950's in the deep south to find prejudice against accused black men to find anything comparable in America.

Sure there were.
Even Hillary Clinton came in for a lot of **** and she didn't commit a murder.

 

[loverofzion]

Perhaps I share the same Irish, Scotch, English and German genes that Amanda has because I understand her perfectly and know she is telling the truth.

When I was young and good health, sometimes I would feel faint when the blood vessels dialitated due to heat and standing still for awhile. A lot of soldiers faint when standing at attention for a long time. My solution wasn't cartwheels, but touching my toes. I would touch my toes when under stress.

Same for her other mannerisms; I understand them all because I understand myself.

The only difference is, I would have punched a few of the police. My only felony charges came from fighting the police when they got nasty (3 or 4 times)

Whoa hold on.
Because your ancestors come from some of the same countries as Ms. Knox then you are able to understand her thoughts and feelings perfectly?
Can you do that with everybody who has English, German etc. genes or is it just certain people who are up for murder.