Continuation - Discussion of the Amanda Knox case

[Chris C]

It's actually kind of frightening to be on sites like the statement analysis one, where everyone agrees that unreality is reality. (Couple others I can think of like that, too -- wink, wink, nudge nudge.)

I imagine it's what the United States would be like if Sarah Palin were ever elected president.

As if she could do a worse job than the current one.

 

[katy_did]

It's also quite difficult not to respond when your own posts are remotely commented upon, LOL.

It's the sheerest of sophistry.

I'll have to use that on my boss when I take a day off. I'll tell him that I will not be in but that doesn't necessarily mean I'll be out of the office.

If it is so, it's the "sheerest of sophistry" from the independent experts, who obviously felt the need to avoid using the term "compatible" with regard to the kitchen knife. Presumably that was in order to distinguish it from the "many other knives [which] are more compatible than this one". Maybe those glossing over the difference might want to ask themselves why, unlike many commenting on the case, the experts refused to call the knife "compatible".

the expert Prof. Umani Ronchi at the hearing of 19 September 2009 (...), acknowledged that the opinion of ‘not incompatible’ given in the report was based only on the fact that the knife was single-edged. To the question of Avv. Dalla Vedova “but then, Professor, any knife that has this morphological characteristic, that is that is single-edged, has the same declaration of not incompatible?”, Prof Umani Ronchi replied: “Practically yes, practically yes”

 

[Malkmus]

Resident JREF poster Stilicho has written an article for True Justice outlining what he believes are signs of a conspiracy theory by those following the murder of Meredith Kercher case. While I think he's on target with that notion, I believe he has attributed it to the wrong side by mistake. Because when you examine the facts of the case you find that the simplest answer, the one that makes the most sense, is usually the truth. And the answer that requires a suspension of disbelief, unlikely scenarios/behavior, and multiple culprits conspiring together to commit a crime when just one will do... well that to me is a conspiracy theory. But let's look at each of the author's main points and see how they fare for each side, and if there happens to be anything ironic or even hypocritical about the findings. But first I'd like to establish where the two sides stand:

In this corner - The Innocentisti

Those who believe Amanda Knox and Rafaelle Sollecito are innocent believe that Meredith Kercher was killed by a thief who broke into her cottage while she was home alone. The evidence for this scenario includes a broken window and rock with which he gained entry; bloody shoe-prints, DNA in the victim's body and on her purse from which went missing money, phones, and keys; a bloody fingerprint; and the thief's own admission to being there that night and leaving the victim to die.

This scenario is boosted by a clear motive: Rudy Guede had just been caught with stolen goods a couple days earlier and was forced to return to Perugia to return the items to a place he had burglarized with the same method of entry as at the cottage where Meredith lived - by throwing a rock through a second floor window, then scaling the wall to gain entry. Not being able to even afford a hotel while trying to pedal his stolen goods in Milan, Rudy had to hide in a public building for a night's rest. the night of the murder Rudy was desperate for money, but when his final robbery attempt was interrupted by Meredith he had two choices - flee or silence his witness. Fleeing wasn't an option because the witness knew him and would immediately be able to tell police who he was, and his arrest would be inevitable. So he had to silence the witness, who unfortunately also happened to be a pretty and young female who Rudy was, according to his diary, attracted to. Burglary becomes rape and murder - especially when you consider no one else was home the act of sexual assault and murder becomes more probable.

And in this corner - The Guilters

Those who believe all three suspects are guilty - Knox, Sollecito, and Guede - believe in a far less likely, and frankly bizarre scenario where three relative strangers (two of whom had known each other one week, and the third simply by name) during a chance encounter discover they all have psycho-sexual tendencies, bloodlust, and with no common motive, decide to torture, rape, and murder a girl with whom two of the suspects were friends with. The evidence for Guede is the same as above - but with exceptions. For instance, though Guede's DNA was found on Meredith's purse it is believed that Amanda and Rafaelle stole its contents. And despite the method of breaking in being identical to his previous break-in, this is also attributed to Amanda and Rafaelle - though they had no idea it was his M.O. The lack of bloody shoe-prints, incriminating DNA, or bloody fingerprints are attributed to the notion that since it doesn't exist there must have been a clean-up. And despite the evidence against Rudy being rock solid, each piece of evidence against Knox and Sollecito comes with some sort of caveat (both DNA samples from them on the knife and bra are LCN DNA, a controversial form of DNA evidence in which the samples are so low that contamination or even misinterpretation of said samples becomes extremely high. None of the DNA evidence against Guede was found to be LCN).

This is about as precise as the Guilters' side of the story goes, because beyond that the details of what happened that night have a multitude of variations on which none of them can completely agree. Most Guilters don't agree with Judge Massei's version or PM Mignini's version, and seemingly each person has their own personal version of how they think things happened that night. Some believe Rudy tried to have his way with Meredith and Amanda got turned on and decided to help him out. Others believe Knox orchestrated the entire plot to kill her roommate because of disputes over rent money or because she was being let go from her job (which never even happened). Then there are those who believe Knox cowered in a corner while her boyfriend aided Rudy in killing Meredith. One member over at PMF is adamant that Rafaelle is completely innocent. Despite their belief that "their version" fits all the evidence, it's impossible to have this many scenarios yet have them all fit the evidence found. The only variation I've seen on the Innocentisti side in recent memory is whether Rudy used the window grill to step up to Filomena's window or if he used the planter.

Stilicho writes:

Conspiracy Theories And Those That Surround Meredith’s Murder:

What do the Apollo moon landings, the JFK assassination, the 9/11 attacks, and Meredith Kercher’s murder all have in common?

They have each attracted the vigorous cult-like attention of conspiracy theorists.

When I think cult-like behavior I can think of one place that shares many of the characteristics of a cult. And to illustrate that point, here is a checklist from the International Cultic Studies Association. Let's see how it stacks up against the Guilter advocacy site Perugiamurderfile.org.

The first 8 indicators from their checklist (the other 6 apply to physical cults and don't apply to something like an internet group):

1.The group displays excessively zealous and unquestioning commitment to its leader and (whether he is alive or dead) regards his belief system, ideology, and practices as the Truth, as law.

Is there any doubt that PMF has a leader or leaders? Without naming names, the group over at PMF displays "unquestioning commitment" to the two site admins. Their bible is the Massei Motivations.

2. Questioning, doubt, and dissent are discouraged or even punished.

We all know what happens to anyone who ventures over to PMF with any sort of doubt about Knox and Sollecito's guilt. They are either banned, ridiculed, or restricted from posting freely. Ultimately, the result is always that the person is deterred from posting completely. Otherwise you think there would be one Innocentisti member over there who could last more than a week.

3. Mind-altering practices (such as meditation, chanting, speaking in tongues, denunciation sessions, and debilitating work routines) are used in excess and serve to suppress doubts about the group and its leader(s).

Does not apply.

4. The leadership dictates, sometimes in great detail, how members should think, act, and feel.

The site admins at PMF regularly dictate what its members should discuss, what pieces of evidence and theories are allowed to be discussed. Anything that might help prove innocence is dissuaded from being talked about or even forbidden (the whole time of death/stomach contents discussion, conflicting witness statements, the LCN DNA, etc.) All are taboo subjects.

5. The group is elitist, claiming a special, exalted status for itself, its leader(s) and members.

I think this one is clear. PMF is an exclusive club that looks down upon anyone who doesn't share their viewpoints.

6. The group has a polarized us-versus-them mentality, which may cause conflict with the wider society.

This one definitely applies. Anyone who enters their site with opposing viewpoints is investigated thoroughly and always presumed to be someone with an agenda or a troll. All advocates for innocence in the media are demonized, investigated, and ridiculed. Family members of the accused are given the same treatment. This pattern is clear.

6. The leader is not accountable to any authorities

"The leader" is the two site admins. They rule the site with an iron fist and account for no one. Anything they say and do goes.

7. The group teaches or implies that its supposedly exalted ends justify whatever means it deems necessary. This may result in members' participating in behaviors or activities they would have considered reprehensible or unethical before joining the group.

This brings to mind the often vulgar, often embarrassingly immature, remarks used to intimidate people with opposing viewpoints ( and the constant posting of unflattering photos of Knox family members and the weirdly obsessive photoshopping of Knox/Sollecito against collages of wild animals come to mind as well)

8. The leadership induces feelings of shame and/or guilt in order to influence and/or control members. Often, this is done through peer pressure and subtle forms of persuasion.

I've seen this implemented against some of the more "conflicted" members of PMF like Thoughtful who remains a member because of her translating skills but has been reprimanded unfairly for casting doubt on crucial pieces of evidence.

Some of Stilicho's other points:

A Commonality: An Aversion To Respecting Good Science

The good science in this case is well respected. It's the obvious mistakes made that are criticized, such as falsely attributing Raf's shoe-print to Guede's, not changing gloves at the crime scene, not taking Meredith's body temperature in time,frying four hard drives in a row, arbitrarily moving the TOD around, ignoring the negative tests for blood on the luminol prints, and taking the LCN DNA results at face value when it is widely considered a dubious method.

A Commonality: Lack Of A Credible Alternate Suspect:

JFK conspiracy theorists have never been able to establish a credible alternate suspect - and neither have Knox/Sollecito advocates.

The prime suspect for the Innocentisti is and has always been Rudy Guede. It's credible because it's an undisputed truth.

Conclusions About Conspiracy Theorists

This has now reached such levels of absurdity that they are increasingly being laughed at or, for the most part, ignored. Nobody - really nobody - in either the Italian or American governments is paying them even the slightest attention.

Steve Moore just recently spread the word on national television, even evoking a response from Rudy's lawyer. It's safe to say Stilicho is wrong on this one. If we're talking about internet posters, then I think it's a bit delusional to think that the Italian government is listening to either side.


For the whole article go to:
http://truejustice.org/ee/index.php

 

[Mary_H]

Great post, Malkmus.

 

[RoseMontague]

Great post, Malkmus.

Yes,
Malkmus does a much better job showing those that believe in guilt having characteristics of a cult than Stilicho does showing those on the side of innocence having characteristics of conspiracy theorists. However, my opinion is that those that believe in guilt are not part of a cult but I have no problem believing in some level of conspiracy involved in the investigation, forensic testing, prosecution, and judgment of Raffaele and Amanda.

 

[Darat]

A reminder - this is not a thread to discuss one another.

Replying to this modbox in thread will be off topic  Posted By: Darat

 

[Katody Matrass]

Excellent!

Stilicho and Malkmus very well verbalized what was going through my mind for some time too.

What I would like to add is that the very origin of the CT thinking about this case lies in the prosecution's theory.
Mignini, as is widely known is fond of convoluted, baroque theories involving conspiracy, satanic cults and group killings. It's enough to review his theory of the Narducci case.

Looking back at prosecution's story in Meredith Kercher case:
Typical signs of crackpot theories are ignoring Ockham's Razor, which is very prominent in prosecution's position (Malkmus perfectly covered it above).
Another one is total lack of good evidence and scarcity of even disputable evidence. This forces a CTer to rely on gotchas, anecdotes, "strange" coincidences and questionable witnesses to support his/her position. Amassing such "clues" to create an impression that if there is that much of it, some of it must be true.
That's a typical ufologist approach (so many photos, some must be true), we can see it also in 9/11 truthers when they present multitude of gotchas (how could he fly so precise, the hole is too small, TV reported the events before they happened, witnesses saw a cruise missile/heard a bomb, the tower collapsed in free fall etc.)

In prosecution's position we see:

gotchas

Police arrived before before they called,
How could he knew nothing was stolen,
She told Meredith always locks the door
she can't remember when she ate dinner,
she took a shower in the morning
she fetched a mop etc.​

anecdotes

She hazed someone before
Terrible crime of noise violation
They fought about the job at Le Chic
She hated/envied/whatever Meredith
RS wanted extreme experiences etc.​

questionable witnesses

insane? Kokomani,
Toto the permanent prosecution witness,
Old lady who heard a scream,
and discredited liar Quintavalle.​

So it's all there, but what is lacking is good hard evidence and good logical reasoning.

Also typical for CT is embracing self-appointed, questionable "experts". We saw it recently when many cheerfully rallied around that statement analysis guy.

 

[Rolfe]

I haven't commented on this since about page 3 of the original thread and I'm in almost total ignorance of the issues. However, I'd like to point out as someone who writes forensic pathology reports, that "not inconsistent" is the most positive statement you'll get from many if not most people.

Rolfe.

 

[Supernaut]

I compared what he does to dream analysis -- you know, the Big Book of Dream Symbols?

I already asked him for his credentials, Katody. Several days later, he wrote:




Here is the reputable-looking website for the Laboratory of Scientific Interrogation: http://www.lsiscan.com/

I have also asked him a number of time to provide a source for the theory that anything having to do with showers, water or washing also has to do with sexuality. So far, he declines to answer. Come join halides1 and me on the comment page -- Fulcanelli is there, too!

This individual probably does actually use "the interpretation of Dreams" as a reference.

Most people aren't aware that Freudian psychoanalysis (who put the 'anal' in it anyway?) is NOT taken seriously in the fields of psychiatry/psychology anymore, and is studied only in order to understand its place in the history of these sciences, which many opine it held back for decades.

I noticed that a rather perceptive poster (Jeanie) was actually told, in so many words, that she suffered from "penis envy"!!

 

[Chris_Halkides]

Malkmus on conspiracy theories

Malkmus,

Great post. The only thing I can add concerns the putative Knox/Mellas PR machine. This alleged organization is blamed for everything from favorable press coverage of Amanda to all of one's unmatched socks after doing laundry and the way ice cream smells when it is left too long in the freezer. Discussion of the Knox/Mellas PR machine belongs in the Conspiracy Theory thread, IMHO.

 

[Supernaut]

Resident JREF poster Stilicho has written an article for True Justice outlining what he believes are signs of a conspiracy theory by those following the murder of Meredith Kercher case. While I think he's on target with that notion, I believe he has attributed it to the wrong side by mistake. [snip]

The simple fact is every single observation or argument originally made by the "Innocentisti" has been appropriated by these people over the past 2 years, including (with monumental irony) that of attributing "projection" and "transference" to their opponents, which was first used by Mark Waterbury (IIRC) to explain the "evil" perceived in Amanda Knox by her persecutors (with which I completely concur).

 

[Supernaut]

I'm positively sure is that I have no local congressman around where I live.

LondonJohn, thanks for the analysis of that bulletin article, what I'm left to add is maybe some more quotes from that blog, just for the laughs:


Amanda writes
i began to play guitar with raffael and meredith came out
of her room and went to the door. she said bye and left for the day.
it was the last time i saw her alive.

The guy goes into pure cold-reading mode:

Now that's quite a finding, especially knowing that we are dealing with a murder, not a missing person.


Amanda writes:
i woke up
around 1030 and after grabbing my few things i left raffael's
appartment

Our psychic explains:

Thar she blows ?




I'd love to see this guys credentials. The fact that FBI pays him money wouldn't surprise me that much. Employing psychics in investigations is not unheard of, too.

BTW Mary, as someone observed on that blog - no regard seems to be made in this (b*llsh*t) "statement analysis" to the circumtances under which AK wrote it, which was immediately after relentless questioning over at least 40 hours in 3 days, during which she was asked over and over to describe her exact movements on the 1st and 2nd of Nov, which incuded, of course, the shower on the morning of the 2nd.

I happen to agree with those who think there was more to some of the cops questions about Amanda's and Merediths's sexuality than professional interest, and it wouldn't surprise me in the least if the email is in part a reflection of their obsessions.

 

[Tricky]

A number of posts have been moved to AAH for being off topic and/or uncivil.

As you know, we recently removed this thread from moderated status. I want to reiterate that doing so was NOT an invitation to return to bickering. We really don't want to put it back on moderation, so please don't force us to. Post exactly as if every post were being examined, just like you were doing right up until the moderated status was removed.

Thank you

Replying to this modbox in thread will be off topic  Posted By: Tricky

 

[Charlie Wilkes]

Wrongful prosecution often entails a conspiracy in which public officials work together to suppress the truth. The Dreyfus Affair involved the most senior leadership of the French military. They collaborated to produce phony evidence against an innocent man, and they aided the real culprit in evading justice. They did all this so they wouldn't have to admit they made a mistake. It is the same motivation that impels Mignini and his colleagues in Perugia.

 

[Mary_H]

BTW Mary, as someone observed on that blog - no regard seems to be made in this (b*llsh*t) "statement analysis" to the circumtances under which AK wrote it, which was immediately after relentless questioning over at least 40 hours in 3 days, during which she was asked over and over to describe her exact movements on the 1st and 2nd of Nov, which incuded, of course, the shower on the morning of the 2nd.

Thank you, Supernaut; I was the one who brought that up -- twice. To no avail.

I tried to post there yesterday but the guy deleted my comment three times.

I happen to agree with those who think there was more to some of the cops questions about Amanda's and Merediths's sexuality than professional interest, and it wouldn't surprise me in the least if the email is in part a reflection of their obsessions.

Absolutely.

Most people aren't aware that Freudian psychoanalysis (who put the 'anal' in it anyway?) is NOT taken seriously in the fields of psychiatry/psychology anymore, and is studied only in order to understand its place in the history of these sciences, which many opine it held back for decades.

I agree.

I noticed that a rather perceptive poster (Jeanie) was actually told, in so many words, that she suffered from "penis envy"!!

Yes, and she complained about it, too, at least twice. Obscene post still there.

Now if you'll excuse me, I have to go commit sexual assault. Er, I mean... I have to take a shower.

 

[Malkmus]

Yes,
Malkmus does a much better job showing those that believe in guilt having characteristics of a cult than Stilicho does showing those on the side of innocence having characteristics of conspiracy theorists. However, my opinion is that those that believe in guilt are not part of a cult but I have no problem believing in some level of conspiracy involved in the investigation, forensic testing, prosecution, and judgment of Raffaele and Amanda.

I mostly agree with you, Rose. And TBH, I never would have touched the CT or "cult" subject if it hadn't already been brought up - I just thought this particular article was a bit too much of the pot calling the kettle black. The main reason I think it's improper to refer to Innocentisti as CTers is because the murder of Meredith Kercher is not a conspiracy - No group of people conspired to kill her the way the prosecution would have you believe. And I don't think that the police following the trail of Sollecito and Knox with blinders on is a conspiracy theory either. Misdirection and tunnel vision in this case I believe are due simply to poor LE skills. By the logic employed by some on the other side it would seem that anyone who believes someone may have been wrongfully convicted is a conspiracy theorist because it involves some sort of skeptical criticism of the officials involved.

And I would add to that:

Conspiracy theories like those in the TJMK article are ridiculous because they are mainly unprecedented. How may times has our own government hijacked planes, how many times has the mob killed a president, how many times has a fake space exploration mission been executed? ZERO. That's why those theories are crazy. But how many times has someone been wrongfully accused and convicted of murder? Too many to count.

 

[Charlie Wilkes]

How may times has our own government hijacked planes, how many times has the mob killed a president, how many times has a fake space exploration mission been executed? ZERO. That's why those theories are crazy. But how many times has someone been wrongfully accused and convicted of murder? Too many to count.

The Kennedy assassination offers a useful comparison, because people have made an enormous effort to "prove" it could not have been done by one person acting alone. Oswald would not have had time to squeeze off enough shots, the bullet angles would have been different, etc. Add the fact that Jack Ruby "silenced" Oswald, and it became easy to believe it was some kind of gangland hit. But, it wasn't. Oswald the lone wolf did it all by himself.

 

[Kestrel]

Wrongful prosecution often entails a conspiracy in which public officials work together to suppress the truth. The Dreyfus Affair involved the most senior leadership of the French military. They collaborated to produce phony evidence against an innocent man, and they aided the real culprit in evading justice. They did all this so they wouldn't have to admit they made a mistake. It is the same motivation that impels Mignini and his colleagues in Perugia.

In an authority driven system like they have in Perugia, it doesn't take a conspiracy. The head investigator and prosecutor decide on a theory of the crime and the rest of the crew simply follows along. They see their job as supporting the prosecutor, and feel they will be rewarded on that basis. If the prosecutor wants a shoe print matched to a suspect, the expert witness feels obliged to claim a match. The police can be counted on to tell their story in a way designed to make the guilt of the accused clear. Even if they have to shade the truth a bit, such as claiming they arrived a a different time or never entered a room.

 

[Kestrel]

The Kennedy assassination offers a useful comparison, because people have made an enormous effort to "prove" it could not have been done by one person acting alone. Oswald would not have had time to squeeze off enough shots, the bullet angles would have been different, etc. Add the fact that Jack Ruby "silenced" Oswald, and it became easy to believe it was some kind of gangland hit. But, it wasn't. Oswald the lone wolf did it all by himself.

In both the Knox and the Monster of Florence case, Prosecutor Mignini has played the role of Jim Garrison in the Kennedy assassination.

 

[Charlie Wilkes]

I used to be a moon hoaxer on Usenet. I drove the engineers at JPL straight up the wall. It all started with the weirdness around Hale-Bopp, the 1997 comet.

It wasn't dignified, but it was fun...