Continuation - Discussion of the Amanda Knox case

Status
Not open for further replies.
Remember the Texas Sharpshooter fallacy: we don't need to bend over backwards to construct a story about how every single drop of blood ended up exactly where it did. It's enough that we know that Rudy made one or possibly two trips in and out of the bathroom to clean the blood from himself and possibly get towels, and that this satisfactorily explains any Rudy-size footprints or blood drops in those areas. He could have hopped, ran or bounced upside-down on his head back and forth between the two rooms for all we will ever know with certainty.

Oh, very true, and in many ways it's probably pointless to speculate since he might've made the footprint in an entirely different way from any considered before (it's a bit like speculating as to how he got up to the window, really. All that matters is that it's possible, not to prove beyond doubt the exact way in which he did it). Since we can be fairly certain Rudy did go into the small bathroom several times by his own admission, and that we know for certain he had blood on his hand(s), it's logical to think he left the blood in there, and entirely possible/probable he left the footprint too. That's all we should need to say, I agree.
 
substrate controls

[*]Then there are four samples of mixed DNA from AK and in the form of blood from MK. Well I`m not a DNA scientist and I don`t know, what a common amount of DNA spots is of a person, who regularly uses a bathroom. I also don`t know, how easy it is, that DNA from blood, that accidentally falls on an other DNA spot got mixed with it. But somehow I have the feeling, that the probability, that blood which gets cleaned off the body of a third persons falls four times accidentally on four different DNA spots of a person, who regularly uses the bathroom, and gets mixed up four times with it, isn`t that high. So, this, for me, is another indicator, that RG wasn`t in the bathroom, but two others.
[/LIST]

For me, the second scenario makes much more sense and I`m not willing to spin the facts around and create implausible theories just for the goal, that RG is the only responsible person.

LiamG,

As is also the case with the knife, if the forensic police had done substrate controls, their case would be much stronger. In this instance, substrate controls would consist of swabbing portions of the bathroom without blood. If these controls never turned up Amanda's DNA, then I would begin to take the prosecution's hypothesis about the mixed blood/DNA more seriously. I can find no evidence that the forensic police did so. Finding a person's DNA in his or her own home is usually not probative.
 
I have a question about the bloody shoe prints that lead to the front door. Did the police test the front porch for a continuation of the shoe prints? Why would the prints have ended at the front door?
 
For me, the second scenario makes much more sense and I`m not willing to spin the facts around and create implausible theories just for the goal, that RG is the only responsible person.

And yet spin spin spin is exactly what you did to side with the prosecution. You have not been paying attention to any of the science presented in this thread so you can believe anything you want. Your belief does not dictate reality.

Writing on the wall in the victims blood is an indication of a deranged mind but not necessarily panic. [1][2][3]


Panicked or not, do you really expect Rudy to run home through the public streets dripping with blood? There is evidence that Rudy's trousers were soaked with blood. There is even evidence that the trousers were still dripping after the attempt to rinse them off. The theory that Rudy rinsed his trousers off in the small bath fits with the known evidence and happens to explain the footprint in blood and water that just happens to be compatible with Rudy's foot.

Is there a limit on how much blood can be washed down the drain with plenty of water? One of the features of porcelain that makes it useful for bath fixtures is that it repels water. Rinse the blood off your hands in the sink and all that blood and water flows down the drain. Slosh some water around the bowl with your hands and it's sparkly clean again (as long as someone paid proper attention to regular cleaning to keep the soap scum from building up).


You admit your ignorance in not knowing how much DNA is normal to find on a given surface. For that I don't fault you. Nobody can know how much DNA would be normally found on a surface because there are too many variables that will affect it. Any forensics expert that is more than a BS artist would tell you that you have to measure the background levels. We have seen the list of all the DNA samples that were taken. Guess what is missing from that list. Amanda's DNA was found on every spot tested on the sink. What does that prove.
 
The window in Meredith's room does not face the street. Furthermore, if the window shutters were closed, then it is unlikely that anyone would have noticed the light from a small desk lamp emanating from the cottage.

As to the lamp Rudy said was on, is he talking about Meredith's lamp or Amanda's lamp? That is, was Amanda's lamp in Meredith's room before the murder? If not, when was it placed there?

Were Merediths shutters closed?
I couldn't find any pictures of Merediths window to tell.

I'm not so sure I completely assume that some light wouldn't be seen, even if shutters are closed. There are several pictures with the forensic team working at night and the light is seen leaking through the closed shutters. (granted many more lumens)

It is one test that could be done, even today.
A person could simply stand where the tow truck driver was positioned, view the cottage at night, and see if light could be noticeable from Merediths window. November would be a better simulation with the foliage replicated.
(with and without the shutters closed.) If the shutters were open I would think there would be ample lighting to be noticed.

Again I couldn't find any pictures of the state of Merediths window and shutters.

I don't know either about Rudys reference to the light on in Merediths room or if he saw two lamps or one. Was he ever asked in court?
 
In the prosecution's animation of the event, were Amanda and Raffaele barefoot? Are they saying they took their shoes off after the assault? Or maybe they were buck naked during the assault? Instead of calling shenanigans as some posters seem inclined to do, I think a new way of pointing out real stretches in logic by the prosecution needs to be made. Personally, I am reminded of Cap'n Ahab and the relentless pursuit of a white whale, putting this objective ahead of all other concerns. When I see some of the conclusions made in the Massei report I am inclined to say: "Thar she blows! Thar she blows! It is Moby Dick!!!!"

LOL, great analogy. :D

Yeah, maybe the logical leaps need to be emphasized more. Like, "Amanda carried a rather large bag, therefore the obvious and inevitable conclusion is that she used it to transport a large kitchen knife. Because they're both large. Do you see? Large bag, large kitchen knife. It's the only possible explanation".

Perhaps when that translated Massei report comes out later today I will even add little images of a whale to it, with tiny numbers on each whale, kinda like footnotes. At the end I can compile my Moby Dick list where each conclusion that defies logic and common sense is explained. Or maybe not, just a thought, a bit whacked surely.

Whacked or not, you totally have to do this.

Now I really want to go and re-read Moby Dick so I can better appreciate the similarities. But what with the report being released any second now (probably by the time this post is approved) I fear I may not have the time.
 
I think it's also very possible that the blood wasn't actually on Guede's shoe, but instead on his trouser (pants) leg. Logically, if he were trying to remove blood from his trouser leg using either the bidet or the shower, he'd have removed one or both of his shoes.

If this was indeed the case, it would explain the lack of Guede's bloody shoeprints leading from Meredith's room to the small bathroom - since at this point there would have been no blood on his shoe at all. It would also explain the footprint in the blood/water mixture made on the bathmat, since Guede's bare foot could easily have dipped into the blood/water mix that pooled in the pan of the bidet or shower, and he could have then stepped off onto the bathmat.

My personal belief is that Guede may have actually used the shower to clean blood from his trousers (and top and hands/arms and knife), since it would be easier to work with a detachable spray shower head than with the fixed tap of the bidet. I believe that he may have moved the mat over to the shower area while doing so. I say this because the footprint on the mat is not in the right place for either the bidet or the shower. It would also make sense that he would be standing with his right foot placed on the floor of the shower pan, which would be how the blood/water mixture could have got onto the sole of his right foot. He might then have stepped out of the shower pan in order to rinse all the blood/water mix out of the shower, and in doing so he may have left his blood/water footprint on the bathmat. Just a thought, though.

Interesting theory. Certainly possible, and it explains both why he took his shoes off and the lack of prints.

Perhaps my only objection would be that he probably would've left some blood traces in the shower (as he did in the sink, the bidet, and I think also the toilet? Not sure about that last one) and perhaps also that there would've been more of a mess from his wet clothes on the floor, if he'd rinsed them. There again, Amanda did use the shower, which could have washed away any traces he left. And certainly the bath mat could've originally been the other way round (though I don't see any particular problem with it having been left the same way round as when it was found, either; it seems quite consistent to me with someone washing their foot in the sink or bidet, and accidentally stepping on the mat).

I still like the symmetry of the left shoe print/right bare footprint, though. :p
 
Re Knox and Sollecito and cocaine use:

As I posted earlier, there are unsubstantiated rumours emanating from a couple of particular people claiming that Knox and Sollecito were "coke-heads" (i.e. regular heavy cocaine users) at the time of the murder.

Since then, there has been speculation that the police would have had no opportunity to test Knox or Sollecito for cocaine use, since all benzoylecgonine (the measurable metabolite of cocaine) would have passed out of the body by the time they were arrested.

Unfortunately, that is most likely an incorrect assertion. Research shows that while benzoylecgonine from a single small cocaine hit remains in the body for 3-5 days, a larger ingestion of coke will result in enough benzoylecgonine for a positive test being present for eight days. And longer-term consistent use of cocaine (such as one might describe a "coke-head") can result in benzoylecgonine being present up to 14 days after the last hit.

So, given that the murder occurred on the night of 1st November, and Knox/Sollecito were arrested on the morning of 6th November, they could (and should) have been tested for cocaine use within five days of their last hit (if their last hit was sometime on the evening of the murder). Given that most people who are alleging cocaine use are clearly suggesting that this was not a case of a small, one-off use of the drug on the murder night (but rather the culmination of an escalating abuse of cocaine) it is very likely indeed that benzoylecgonine would have shown up in Knox/Sollecito's urine after five days.

So that brings us to three possible conclusions:

1) The police neglected to test Knox and Sollecito for prior cocaine use.

2) The police tested Knox and Sollecito for cocaine, and they tested negative, but the prosecutors declined to to provide this to the defence in discovery.

3) The police tested Knox and Sollecito for cocaine, and they tested positive, but the prosecutors decided neither to introduce this in evidence nor to provide it to the defence in discovery.

I can't see option (3) being likely, so that leaves either (1) or (2) as possibilities. And since option (2) involves potentially unlawful behaviour on behalf of the prosecutor in failing to disclose a negative result to the defence, then the leaves us with option (1). Which implies - and I know everyone will be surprised at this - failings in the police investigation.
 
DNA sample 164

From the pdf file of selected DNA results, I would like to reiterate something that RoseMontague pointed out a couple of weeks ago.

Rep. 164
Blood from wall of bedroom
Not tested because of negative preliminary
(quantificaton) result.

This sample was blood, although the reason for this conclusion is not given. The quantification result is not specified, but it might be that the amount of DNA was too low. Notice how this contrasts with the knife, where the sample tested negative for blood, and the DNA quantification definitely read "too low." Why did Stefanoni proceed with the knife when she stopped before completing the work on the stain? Could it be because when the police hand a forensic scientist a knife, he or she knows that the police think it is the murder weapon and his or her job is to back them up?
 
From the pdf file of selected DNA results, I would like to reiterate something that RoseMontague pointed out a couple of weeks ago.

Rep. 164
Blood from wall of bedroom
Not tested because of negative preliminary
(quantificaton) result.

This sample was blood, although the reason for this conclusion is not given. The quantification result is not specified, but it might be that the amount of DNA was too low. Notice how this contrasts with the knife, where the sample tested negative for blood, and the DNA quantification definitely read "too low." Why did Stefanoni proceed with the knife when she stopped before completing the work on the stain? Could it be because when the police hand a forensic scientist a knife, he or she knows that the police think it is the murder weapon and his or her job is to back them up?

While I do thank Charlie Wilkes for linking the pdf document selected DNA results, I believe it is a document that is not official. Would you rather not view the raw data of the reference samples (which I believe Charlie Wilkes has stated he has). Maybe that data would answer your questions.
 
From the pdf file of selected DNA results, I would like to reiterate something that RoseMontague pointed out a couple of weeks ago.

Rep. 164
Blood from wall of bedroom
Not tested because of negative preliminary
(quantificaton) result.

This sample was blood, although the reason for this conclusion is not given. The quantification result is not specified, but it might be that the amount of DNA was too low. Notice how this contrasts with the knife, where the sample tested negative for blood, and the DNA quantification definitely read "too low." Why did Stefanoni proceed with the knife when she stopped before completing the work on the stain? Could it be because when the police hand a forensic scientist a knife, he or she knows that the police think it is the murder weapon and his or her job is to back them up?


Are you suggesting that Stefanoni in particular compromised her professional integrity and committed perjury in court, or is it just your opinion that this is standard practice for forensic scientists.

Your post isn't exactly clear on that.
 
Remember the Texas Sharpshooter fallacy: we don't need to bend over backwards to construct a story about how every single drop of blood ended up exactly where it did. It's enough that we know that Rudy made one or possibly two trips in and out of the bathroom to clean the blood from himself and possibly get towels, and that this satisfactorily explains any Rudy-size footprints or blood drops in those areas. He could have hopped, ran or bounced upside-down on his head back and forth between the two rooms for all we will ever know with certainty.

If all we needed to do was establish Guede's guilt, I would agree. But in this case, where two innocent people have been convicted on the strength of a fairy tale about cannabis-induced violence, we need to pin down what really did happen as precisely as we can. The evidence strongly suggests that the print on the bathmat was made in conjunction with a washing operation that made use of the bidet. There were stains, made with diluted blood, around the drain of the bidet and on the basin of the bidet roughly in a line between the drain and the location of the footprint on the mat.

http://www.friendsofamanda.org/bidet01.jpg
http://www.friendsofamanda.org/bidet02.jpg

Maybe he had blood on his trouser leg, as Dan O. has suggested, and when he rinsed it under bidet, water ran into his shoe, so he removed his shoe, and then he had bloody water on the bottom of his foot, which left a imprint on the mat when he put his bare foot down to steady himself. He didn't put all of his weight on the step, which is why the print on the mat is a little smaller than the reference print.

All of this analysis applies equally whether one believes it was Guede or Sollecito who made the print. But the shape of the big toe is obviously more like Guede's reference footprint than Sollecito's, as is the narrow instep.
 
Re Knox and Sollecito and cocaine use:

As I posted earlier, there are unsubstantiated rumours emanating from a couple of particular people claiming that Knox and Sollecito were "coke-heads" (i.e. regular heavy cocaine users) at the time of the murder.

As I said before, this is pure, malicious slander. Amanda did not use cocaine, in Seattle or in Perugia.
 
This blog post from Science Spheres is strictly speculation, and it relies upon taking the claims that Rudy Guede was a protected police informant as fact, so it should obviously be taken with a grain of salt.

It's central thesis is that it's plausible that one or more members of the investigative team recognised the M.O. of the break-in as Rudy's in the first few days of the investigation, and out of fear that they would be blamed for letting Rudy back out on the streets to kill someone they made a deliberate effort to frame someone else for Rudy's crime.

That's a pretty serious accusation, and normally I'd want pretty serious evidence for an accusation like that, and there is no such evidence.

However there is for me a definite "click" moment in this piece, where the hypothesis suddenly rearranges some things that didn't make sense into a shape that does make sense. One thing that has been troubling about the larger story is that Rudy was caught breaking and entering while carrying a large kitchen knife three or four days before Meredith was murdered but, as the PMF crew delight in pointing out, he was never charged or convicted. They interpret this to mean that he was innocent, or something, but to me it was just odd.

The second oddity that I've seen no satisfactory explanation for is the police, by means of alleged "policeman's intuition", zeroing in on Raffaele's kitchen knife when they searched his apartment and miraculously being proved right that it was the murder weapon. We know Raffaele owned scarier-looking knives than his kitchen knife, which would be much more suitable for carrying around with oneself and/or using to murder people, so what on Earth possessed them to decide that the kitchen knife needed to be bagged as evidence? That never made much sense either.

Those two oddities click together to explain each other under this hypothesis, which is why it struck me as very clever and possibly even correct. The autopsy at this point had not revealed that Meredith was attacked with a small knife, so the police could well have thought "Crap, we let Rudy out and he murdered someone with that big kitchen knife he had. We need another knife like that one to be the murder weapon", and that would be why they zeroed in with apparent prescience on the kitchen knife in Raffaele's drawer.

Then later they would have found out Rudy actually killed her with a smaller knife which he later disposed of, and so they would have had to switch to the two knife theory. That's how the theory goes, anyway.

It would also go some way to explaining why the undoubtedly-guilty Rudy has been given such a soft ride in terms of sentencing compared to Amanda and Raffaele, despite his criminal history and the wealth of evidence against him.

I'm well aware that lots of neat theories turn out to be rubbish, but it does make sense of some very odd facts that, frankly, I have no other sensible explanation for.
 
...If these controls never turned up Amanda's DNA, then I would begin to take the prosecution's hypothesis about the mixed blood/DNA more seriously. I can find no evidence that the forensic police did so. Finding a person's DNA in his or her own home is usually not probative.

Which is why I had been rather assuming that these controls HAD been done. Otherwise, arguing that the existence of a person's DNA in their own home is incriminating smacks of incomptence or something even more malignant.
 
...Fifth possible reason is the window wasn't that hard to climb at all.
Many people seem to view climbing this window as similar to a skyscraper, when in reality it was climbed quickly, during a walk through of the cottage for Raffaeles legal team. And as the picture shows the climber has three more footings to make entry even easier...

The backtracking should be noted.

First the idea that no one could climb in through that window was discredited. Undeterred, the revisionist argument appears to be that, well, ok, so it's easy enough to climb through. But you can't do it without leaving some traces. Well, apart from the fact that there were obvious traces, even if there hadn't been, that would be simply another example of something that happens everyday: a burglar entering a building without an abundance of trace evidence being detected afterwards.
 
Comments on a recent edict from another self-appointed "expert truth-seeker" and "voice of reason", Peter Quennell, on TJMK (direct quotes in bold italics):

"Although very under-reported by an American media that wants to give her every possible break, Amanda Knox was a KNOWN drug user back in Seattle. And around Perugia, the perception of people who encountered Knox and Sollecito is that she was close to becoming or was already a cocaine addict. The same with Sollecito. They are still both referred to as coke-heads."

Really? "Perception"? "KNOWN"? "Cocaine addict"? "coke-heads"?

First: in reference to Seattle, is this "expert truth-seeker" referring to Knox's known cannabis/hash use, but hiding that within references to cocaine in order to mislead the reader into inferring that Knox was a known cocaine user in Seattle? Surely that wouldn't be his motivation, would it.....?

Second: time to put up or shut up about Knox/Sollecito's cocaine use in Perugia, let alone this stuff about addiction or the "coke-head" appellation. Who are these people who "know" this information? Why wasn't it mentioned in the trial? Until there's decent, accredited evidence that Knox and/or Sollecito were habitual cocaine users, we can discount all this as bogus rumour-mongering. Nothing more or less than that.

"And this possible drug addict was already down to her last $5,000 or so, and she may have already lost the waitress job which she desperately needed."

Yeah, I can imagine that it's really really hard to get a casual waitressing or bar-flier-distribution job in a university town. It's not like Knox could have found another similar job if she'd really needed the money now, is it? And down to her last $5,000 - sounds like she was really desperate, doesn't it?

"This could have been making her desperate and dangerous. Prosecutor Mignini and Judge Micheli both seemed to think it was she that stole Meredith’s rent money which went missing on the night of the murder."

Strangely, this "expert truth-seeker" neglects to point out that even Miginini (the actual trial judge, the one that mattered) seemed not to agree with Mignini or Micheli on this issue. I can only imagine that this was an inadvertent omission, since I can't begin to imagine that this information was omitted deliberately, in order to further mislead....<snip>


The language used in the tjmk posts has been a hallmark of how they have been able to use the power of suggestion to control people's beliefs about the case. As you pointed out, Quennell writes:

The "perception" of people was that Amanda was "close to becoming" a coke addict. She and Raffaele are "still referred to" as coke-heads.

The reader has to be careful and analytical to realize that none of these statements actually says Amanda ever used cocaine, and that the "people" he is referring to may be none other than himself and his friends.

According to PQ, Amanda is a "possible" drug addict and she "may have" lost her waitress job, which "could have been" making her desperate.... Mignini and Judge Micheli both "seemed" to think so....

It's as if PQ trained at the British School of How to be a Tabloid Journalist Without Getting Sued. He uses non-committal language that is pure rumor, but that sounds like facts. I read one contribution by The Machine once in which almost every sentence started with the phrase, "It seems....," until the whole essay was just one long piece of unfounded innuendo. The stuff he claimed still shows up in people's blog posts as "fact" from time to time.
 
I understand what you're saying, but I'd make the following observations (dealing with each of the highlighted parts in order):

1) If Guede did indeed commit the murder, regardless of his state of panic, he would clearly realise that it wouldn't be a good idea to run out of the murder house with blood all over his hands, and most likely with visible blood on his clothes too. After all, someone walking or running down a public street at 9.30pm with bloody hands and clothes tends to arouse suspicion. So it's perfectly logical that he would have sought to clean blood off his clothes and body before making his escape.

Well, it is proven, that he had blood on his hands and he obviously paniced. It is also proven, that, at some point, he grabbed a towel. So, what can be drawn from that evidence? He first paniced, shown by the fact, that there were no bloody footprints leading in the directions, where his bloody hand smears were found, then he went to the palce, where the towel was located (I don`t believe, that he went in the bathroom to clean up, as I`ve shown in my last post and the fact, that his shoes obviously weren`t bloody at that time and that there`s no evidence, that his clothes were bloody leads me to the belief, that only his hands were bloody at that time). So, what did RG do with his bloody hands and a towel in his hand? He either grabbed the towel to wash the blood off his hands or he immediately tried to use it to staunch the stream of blood (I firmly believe, that he used the towel for that purpose, see my post above) or maybe he thought of both things. As the evidence shows, RG left the scene at a point, where his shoes had blood on the soles. When did this happen? Obviously, when he was near the bleeding body. And when was he near the bleeding body? Yes, when he used the towel and if you take a look on how bloody this towel was, he was there, when the stream of blood was very high. So, highly likely, at this point, he got his shoes bloody. Now, as it`s proven, he left the room, with bloody shoes. And as I don`t believe, that:
-his shoes had only blood on his soles but also some small amounts on top of it
- knowing the fact, that he must have been near the body and, as pointed out above, highly likely used the towel at this time, it is plausible, that he did get blood on at least his hands again.

So this tells me:
-that he left the scene, with at least parts of his body/clothes in blood.
-that it wasn`t a necessity for him to leave the scene clean from blood.


And as there is no forensic evidence and as I see it, no circumstential evidence, that he ever did a clean up in the bathroom, I, again, don`t believe in it.

2) As I understand it, the coroner testified that the wounds were consistent with multiple attackers. This, however, is very different indeed from the coroner testifying that the wounds could only have been inflicted by multiple attackers.

I think, you can never prove a piece of evidence with 100% certainity. It`s also possible, that aliens from a remote galaxy were, though extremely unlikely, responsible. I think it comes down to a high probability of the validity of a piece of evidence in combination with the conistency of that evidence with other pieces of evidence with high probability to back it up. I think, that`s what the judges and jury did with the evidence of multiple attackers to accept it.

3) I personally believe that the prosecution (and by extension the judicial panel) may be wrong on this crucial piece of evidence. I don't think it's possible to positively attribute that footprint to Sollecito - and in fact I think it's more possible to attribute it to Guede, but again not to the avoidance of reasonable doubt. So, to me, the footprint places Guede in the bathroom at least as much as it places Sollecito there. Plus we have Guede's (admittedly unreliable) testimony, in which he himself says he went into the bathroom twice. Why would he say that unless he was trying to mitigate any possible physical evidence indicating his presence in the bathroom being found?

Well, I`m also very curious about the judges` explenation of why they came to the conclusion, that the footprint must, in terms of dimension, RS`s. As other evidence is consistent, with the footprint being RS`s, I for the present (maybe I change my mind, when the English version of the Massei report is released; but this obviously can take years) believe the judges`s opinion.
Yes, maybe RG was really in the bathroom to get a towel. This would be consistent with the fact, that the part of the light switch in the bathroom, that is used for turning on the light had blood on it, indicating that one with a bloody hand turned it on. But does this necessarily put AK and RS out of the bathroom? No.


4) luminol enhanced footprints (none of which, incidentally, tested positive for blood) do not indicate the prior presence of blood-soaked footprints. If bloody footprints had indeed been cleaned up, there would just have been smears on the floor. The luminol footprints are no more than exactly that - footprints that reacted to luminol, but which tested negative for blood. And if the prosecution claim that the whole floor was cleaned (miraculously avoiding dust and all of Guede's prints), then the whole floor should have lit up under luminol testing. It did not.

Yes, but didn`t the judge explain that, with AK still having some particels of blood on her feet after her washing, which still reacted with luminol!? So, this would explain, why there were no smears.
But to give you some credit. Where are the luminol enhanced footprints, that would lead out of the bathroom? The luminol prints were only found in the corridor, weren`t they?
Well, we`ll see how the judge explains that.

5) The heel area of the footprint on the mat was, as you say, likely cleaned up. But this clean-up could clearly have happened very shortly after the print was deposited - i.e. it doesn't require a separate organised clean-up operation. Why, for example, couldn't Guede have simply wiped the bathroom floor with a towel while he was still in there?
[\QUOTE]

Well, I see no sense, why RG would transform from a bloody butcher into a panicing, scared person, into a cleaning-lady. Btw, was a towel found, that only had some blood smears on it, compared to that towel found, that was fully soaked with blood?

6) My view is that the shower (or possible the bidet) was used for the main washing-off of blood from the perpetrator's hands, arms, clothes and weapon. And after the blood had been washed off, I believe that the perpetrator washed down the shower and/or bidet extensively to remove all but trace elements of blood. Maybe the sink was used to rinse off, say, the knife - which would help explain the small amount of blood left on the taps (faucet) and in the bottom of the sink.

I don`t believe, that a panicing RG, would want to clean up some blood thoroughly from the crime scene, when the crime scene in general was very bloody.

7) I don't share your belief that the break-in was staged. However, even if it was staged, there is a logical explanation as to why it would be in Guede's interest to stage a break-in even if he were the sole attacker (if, for example, he'd been let into the house by Meredith, and he subsequently wanted to mislead the police away from suspecting the narrow group of people who Meredth would have been comfortable letting into the house).

I think, it`s much more plausible for a resident of a flat involved in a serious crime in that flat to stage a break-in, than it is for an unemployed man, who was, though he hadn`t a criminal record, known to the police.
And by the way, since the crime, a lot of people have wondered about the coincidence of RG having broken into a house before this crime in Milan and the break-in, which wasn`t attributed (prosecution/judges) to him though he was at the crime scene. I would explain this "coincidence" as follows:
If you believe the judges, that RG was the instigator/mastermind of this crime and only got AK and RS on board, then it becomes plausible for me, that AK and RS, who were by now also part of a crime, would do things like a criminal, say RG, (though he actually wasn`t one concerning his criminal record) would do. This means, that, for example, AK, who had good reasons for that, staged a break in. She just, as she became a "part of RG`s actions", (though AK`s actions following that became much more serious than RGs ever before) acted in ways, that RG would do.

8) Whilst I can understand your "feeling" in regard to the so-called "mixed DNA" in the bathroom, I don't agree with the random chance element to your analysis. The points where Knox's DNA were found were not random areas of the bathroom (e.g. behind the door, somewhere in the middle of the floor, etc). They were in the places where someone who regularly used the bathroom would be expected to deposit DNA: round the plughole in the sink, on the sink taps (faucet), round the plughole of the bidet, around the light switch etc.

Wasn`t there a mixed DNA spot in Filomena`s room, too?

Lastly, this is not a case of "spinning the facts" at all. It's a case of looking at the evidence and the prosecution's interpretation of the evidence, and seeking a plausible alternative explanation for this evidence. It's not incumbent upon the defence (or upon any people studying this case) to prove these alternative explanations in order to cast reasonable doubt on the prosecution's interpretations of the evidence. It is, however, incumbent upon the prosecution to provide proof beyond reasonable doubt of guilt, and this necessarily involves providing proof regarding key pieces of evidence. I don't think the prosecution has met its burden of proof with regard to the evidence in the small bathroom. But I respect your right to disagree. It will be interesting to see how the appeal court sees it.

For me, as a neutral person, it isn`t interesting to think about, whether the limit of sufficient evidence is crossed to convict in terms of a jurist.
What matters for me is, to find a conclusion for myself, based on what I know about that case. Though I`m not in the position to be able to say,they must have been convicted in terms of a court as I`m neither a jurist nor do I know all the evidence, I, with my view of the evidence available to me, have the opininon, that AK and RS were involved.
 
I'm getting the definite feeling that some people may not be liking what they're seeing in the translated Messiah (oh, I mean Massei) Report. Could that be what's driving the current outbreak of exceptionally "benevolent", "courteous" and "welcoming" behaviour on other forums...? I wonder when the translated report is going to be released for public consumption. Oh, and I assume that no attempt is being made to "interpret" any of the translation towards any particular stance - since that would obviously be intellectually dishonest, wouldn't it?
 
cognitive bias

Are you suggesting that Stefanoni in particular compromised her professional integrity and committed perjury in court, or is it just your opinion that this is standard practice for forensic scientists.

Your post isn't exactly clear on that.

Quadraginta,

I am not saying or implying anything about perjury. I am pointing to the problem of cognitive bias in forensics, which is a problem for well-intentioned forensics workers.

"Mask the evidence. A 2006 U.K. study by researchers at the University of Southampton found that the error rate of fingerprint analysts doubled when they were first told the circumstances of the case they were working on. Crime lab technicians and medical examiners should never be permitted to consult with police or prosecutors before performing their analysis. A dramatic child murder case, for example, may induce a greater subconscious bias to find a match than a burglary case."

One of the authors of this article, Roger Koppl, also has a longer discussion of these kinds of problems in an article called, "CSI for Real."
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Back
Top Bottom