Cue the antivaxxers in 5... 4... 3... 2... 1...

[Rolfe]

I would point out that the cat I spoke about earlier had his acute anaphylactic reaction in the vet's surgery (while his mate was being vaccinated - the owner and the cats were still in the consulting room). The vet grabbed the cat and shot him full of adrenaline within seconds, but he still died. It's vanishingly rare, but it's not unknown.

I always thought, how awful that owner must have felt, having taken his cat for something routine he thought could be only beneficial.

But as against that, I'll raise you about six cases of coincidental death that just happened to occur within hours (not minutes) of a vaccination. The dog with the heart condition, for example. Pure coincidence. The owner was initially convinced the vaccine had killed it though.

Rolfe.

 

[Eos of the Eons]

Sure there are. There's been deaths associate with attenuated live viruses as in the Yellow fever vaccine.

Hayes, EB. Acute viscerotropic disease following vaccination against yellow fever Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg. 2007 Oct;101(10):967-71.


I'm not trying to be a pain, but I think it's important to consider the fact that vaccinations DO harbor an extremely small (but non-zero) risk. These risks are much smaller than the risks involved with driving, but the question remains "what minimum level of mortality do we allow before we consider the vaccination to be acceptable for non-elective use."

HPV vaccine is nowhere near like yellow fever. 0 is the allowable mortality level for this vaccine. People are already refusing it on religious grounds and false claims it has killed people even before this sensationalized case. The vaccine maker would never live down deaths attributable since HPV does not outright kill people directly the way you can die of pneumonia or polio (polio kills 1/20). People have a chance of beating cancer if caught early enough. A vaccine killing them would be unacceptable. I wouldn't allow my daughter to get it if it killed anyone, unlike the polio vaccine (and even that live version didn't kill anyone, but did paralyze a few people, but my one kid got the live vaccine while the other two got the killed one).

 

[Darat]

Like, How. They monitor people after a vaccine for 15 minutes, so it wasn't an allergic reaction or she would have gotten immediate treatment. Then let go for hours and then had lunch and died. For all we know she choked on a peanut, really. What in the vaccine can kill people after a few hours.

According to some of the literature I read at the time this was being rolled out there was something like a 1 in a million chance of someone having a severe reaction to the vaccine.

 

[Kuko 4000]

I remember someone quoting a lightning figure in a vaccine conversation and decided to check it myself:

http://www.lightningsafety.noaa.gov/medical.htm

ODDS OF BECOMING A LIGHTNING VICTIM

Odds of being struck by lightning in a given year (reported deaths + injuries) 1/700,000

Odds of being struck in your lifetime (Est. 80 years) 1/5000

I think this makes a good point to the general public regarding the increased risk of GBS from vaccines, which as far as I know is 1 / 1 000 000 (the background rate of GBS is 1 / 100 000).

http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/vaccination/gbs_qa.htm

 

[zooterkin]

According to some of the literature I read at the time this was being rolled out there was something like a 1 in a million chance of someone having a severe reaction to the vaccine.

That's the figure I heard on the radio yesterday, too. My immediate reaction was to wonder how many girls were being vaccinated.

This morning the reports are that the girl had an underlying medical condition, but nothing more specific than that.

ETA: That link does answer my question:

It is thought about a million girls have already safely received the jab.

More than 1.4 million doses have been given out, of which there have been 4,657 suspected reactions reported, according to the Medicines and Healthcare Regulatory Agency.

 

[Eos of the Eons]

According to some of the literature I read at the time this was being rolled out there was something like a 1 in a million chance of someone having a severe reaction to the vaccine.

Reaction being... allergic/swelling. Treated immediately since it happens seconds after vaccination (not hours). Very known, knowable, and treatable. GBS, with more cases caused by diseases, also treatable. You can't stop vaccinating everyone because some are at risk of GBS (risk associated with diseases and flu vaccine than any other). Even surgery can trigger GBS. FAr more cases of GBS happen with the influenza itself than with the flu vaccines. GBS is associated with one in a million flu vaccines, but with 1 out of one hundred thousand cases otherwise.

 

[Kuko 4000]

http://www.mayoclinic.com/health/guillain-barre-syndrome/DS00413/DSECTION=risk-factors

Guillain-Barre may be triggered by:

Most commonly, infection with campylobacter, a type of bacteria often found in undercooked food, especially poultry
Surgery
Epstein-Barr virus
Hodgkin's disease
Mononucleosis
HIV, the virus that causes AIDS
Rarely, rabies or influenza immunizations

Undercooked food...most commonly...oh no, raw foodists are doomed!

 

[JJM]

Some commentary: http://www.theness.com/neurologicablog/?p=999

 

[Toke]

The antivaxxers somehow fail to show up here?

 

[Cuddles]

I have had quite a lot of vaccines, I think she doubted I would need "Japanese meningitis" or something.

Japanese encephalitis probably. It's on the list of possible vaccinations for travel to a lot of places around south-east Asia and the Indian subcontinent, but it's generally an optional one and I don't actually know anyone who's had it.

 

[Information Analyst]

If you vaccine 1,4 mil girls what are the chance of one of them dying within hours?

Less than one in 1.4 million, it seems.

According to the Office of National Statistics, in 2007 (latest available), the death rates for girls by age in England and Wales were:

12 - 0.13 per 1,000 (n=41)
13 - 0.11 per 1,000 (n=35)
14 - 0.13 per 1,000 (n=44)
15 - 0.13 per 1,000 (n=43)

In relation to the vaccine, 12 & 13 year olds received it this time last year, while those aged 15-18 now are getting it now or next year.

 

[pgwenthold]

Less than one in 1.4 million, it seems.

According to the Office of National Statistics, in 2007 (latest available), the death rates for girls by age in England and Wales were:

12 - 0.13 per 1,000 (n=41)
13 - 0.11 per 1,000 (n=35)
14 - 0.13 per 1,000 (n=44)
15 - 0.13 per 1,000 (n=43)

In relation to the vaccine, 12 & 13 year olds received it this time last year, while those aged 15-18 now are getting it now or next year.

I am assuming these are annual death rates? If that is the case, it corresponds to a DAILY death rate of 1 in about 3 million. I think that is an interesting observation, that 1 in 3 million 12 year old girls dies every day.

Of course, if you group them all together, that means that 1 in less than a million (about 700K) 12 - 15 year old girls die every day.

As such, it should not be a surprise to find out that about one in a million girls this age who get the flu shot die, in fact, the day they get it.

 

[volatile]

All kinds of crazy: http://bit.ly/14mW0Y

 

[Rolfe]

Of course, if you group them all together, that means that 1 in less than a million (about 700K) 12 - 15 year old girls die every day.

As such, it should not be a surprise to find out that about one in a million girls this age who get the flu shot die, in fact, the day they get it.

You'd need to look at the death rate (per day) of 15 to 18 year olds who were well enough to be attending school and didn't already have a diagnosis of a life-threatening illness, and who just collapsed with no trauma involved.

That's the bit that spooks people. Many of the deaths in the statistics will be kids who have battled cancer for years, or kids who have been in some sort of accident (road traffic or other).

Put that way, it seems improbable. However, having investigated identically-presenting cases in companion animals, I can only say, it happens. In my experience it's far far more common for the death to be coincidental to the vaccination and due to an unrelated cause, than for the vaccine to be implicated.

Rolfe.

 

[jta]

FWIW. The decision to temporarily halt the vaccinations is the correct one in the circumstances. It's very unlikely I know, but if there were a flaw in the vaccine that damaged other kids, and no investigation had taken place then heads would roll, and rightly.

I tend to agree though that it was most likely an unfortunate condition that would have manifested anyway. The girl's parents must be devastated. My sympathy to them.

 

[Information Analyst]

I am assuming these are annual death rates? If that is the case, it corresponds to a DAILY death rate of 1 in about 3 million. I think that is an interesting observation, that 1 in 3 million 12 year old girls dies every day.

Of course, if you group them all together, that means that 1 in less than a million (about 700K) 12 - 15 year old girls die every day.

As such, it should not be a surprise to find out that about one in a million girls this age who get the flu shot die, in fact, the day they get it.

Population sizes in thousands for the same year:

12 - 315.9
13 - 322.9
14 - 326.5
15 - 338.6

So basically out of a population of 1,303,900 girls aged 12-15, a total of 164 died in that single year - one every 2.2 days. As Rolfe says, a lot of these will be (physical) accidents, long-term conditions, etc., but I think improbable though it is, there is a potential for an unexpected death on or around the date of vaccination, gived that such huge numbers are being vaccinated at the moment.

Of course, we are now starting to see cases of parents blaming concurrent development of non-fatal health problems on the vaccine....

 

[Vorticity]

The antivaxxers somehow fail to show up here?

For kicks and blood pressure, read this thread at the "Mothering" forum:

http://www.mothering.com/discussions/showthread.php?t=1142955

A sample:

I really think this is the beginning of the end for Big Pharma and their vaccines. It might take another 20 or 30 years. But they're going down.

 

[pgwenthold]

You'd need to look at the death rate (per day) of 15 to 18 year olds who were well enough to be attending school and didn't already have a diagnosis of a life-threatening illness, and who just collapsed with no trauma involved.

Did that happen somewhere?

I mean, the case we are talking about here is one with (reported and undisclosed) pre-existing medical conditions.

Still, it happens. A couple years ago at my old grade school, a 8th grade girl collapsed during basketball practice and died. Autopsy revealed she had an undiagnosed heart condition.

 

[Eos of the Eons]

The antivaxxers somehow fail to show up here?

See vorticity's link for where the antivaxxers hang. I got 'accused' of being a doctor there and accused of having an agenda and got banned for saying things like "polio is NOT a natural part of gut flora" (they were actually claiming polio is a natural part of gut "flora"!!!).

They don't come here, since they know we won't buy their crappola and they accuse us of being bought off by "big pharma". We are all just shills for big pharma doncha know.

Note that rabid antivaxxers are very pro-woo woo. Not a coincidence.

 

[Eos of the Eons]

For kicks and blood pressure, read this thread at the "Mothering" forum:

http://www.mothering.com/discussions/showthread.php?t=1142955

Gee whiz. And they think we should all just use homeopathy instead and that will keep all diseases at bay... well, okay, they say our immune systems are "naturally" superimmune systems that should be able to fight off even HIV all on its own if you use their crappy homeopathy, oils, diet supplements, etc. Viruses don't attack you unless you are toxic ridden (got vaccines) and stupid enough to not use their junk doncha know.