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Didja Hear About Iran?

GreNME

Philosopher
GreNME
Joined
Sep 16, 2007
Messages
8,276
http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2009/06/irans_disputed_election.html

While I'm sure there is some political discussion on the subject going on, considering the current protesting and violence in Iran today (as a result of the election results), isn't the subject also of note for the social issues & current events section?

So far, the coverage has been unprecedented due to multiple people who are using Twitter to get out blips of information (list of English language twitters in Iran), and the huge number of images being leaked out of the country (ex. 1, ex. 2, ex. 3). There really are thousands of people out there rallying against Ahmadinejad's victory despite there having been gunfire from troops trying to disperse the crowds. People are really standing up to the regime.

I'm curious for other people's observations and interpretations on what's going on, but I'm greatly heartened by the attempts by the people to fight for a change, though I'm concerned about whether these Iranians are in great enough numbers to be able to affect the government significantly enough to bring about change. If the 'official' counts are taken at their word-- and there are a number of sources suspecting something fishy (even Time)-- there aren't enough people vying for change to make it happen.

These are Middle-Easterners, mostly Muslims, who are actually voicing their opinions loudly that they want to move in a more peaceful and reasonable direction. Would it be in the West's interest to support these people, or is it more important to not get involved at all and let them sort it out? Not for nothing, but Cuba suddenly springs to mind.

Anyhoo, any other thoughts? I'm not looking for political (Republican/Democrat, conservative/liberal) arguments on what's happening, since I'm sure that would be going on over in the Politics subforum. I'm looking for more social and general thoughts and impressions or opinions.
 
Dunno if it's been brought to English-speaking news sources yet, but supposedly Mousavi is calling for a general strike tomorrow.
 
The reports that there are more than a million people in the streets are shocking. I thought Iran was such a die-hard dictatorship that such a thing wouldn't be possible.
 
The discussion in the Politics section mainly focuses on the question whether there was election fraud or not - or rather, how to prove it.

I don't think Western governments should interfere here. Bush's "axis of evil" rhetoric is still fresh, and undoubtedly has been meted out widely in the Iranian media. Putting pressure now on the Iranian government would only have an adverse effect, and give the powers-that-be the possibility to try to rally the people behind them against the outside enemy.

(and no, I don't hate America ;))

How this pans out depends on how many people Mousavi can rally behind him, and what the military will do: are they prepared to keep supporting the regime and shoot at the masses?

And then, if they're successful, what is the replacement? Mousavi isn't quite the democrat himself. This article in the Asia Times suggests the whole thing is a power struggle within the Iranian (theocratic) oligarchy, between Rafsanjani and Khamenei.

Democratic/progressive forces had been successfully crushed and incarcerated in the Shah's times. In the 1979 revolution, they thought to have an ally in the clerics, but they were too disorganized to have a voice and were pushed into the underground again. Do they now have an organization to propose a viable democratic alternative?
 
And then, if they're successful, what is the replacement? Mousavi isn't quite the democrat himself.
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If we could run with the "he's not Bush" rhetoric, why can't they go "he's not Ahmadinejad":p?
 
Safe-Keeper said:
The reports that there are more than a million people in the streets are shocking. I thought Iran was such a die-hard dictatorship that such a thing wouldn't be possible.
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I've heard reports of that many as well, but I don't know how dependable such numbers are. If they are accurate, this might turn out more interesting.

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ddt said:
How this pans out depends on how many people Mousavi can rally behind him, and what the military will do: are they prepared to keep supporting the regime and shoot at the masses?

And then, if they're successful, what is the replacement? Mousavi isn't quite the democrat himself. This article in the Asia Times suggests the whole thing is a power struggle within the Iranian (theocratic) oligarchy, between Rafsanjani and Khamenei.

Democratic/progressive forces had been successfully crushed and incarcerated in the Shah's times. In the 1979 revolution, they thought to have an ally in the clerics, but they were too disorganized to have a voice and were pushed into the underground again. Do they now have an organization to propose a viable democratic alternative?
Click to expand...

I have similar concerns, especially about Mousavi. However, if the people pushing for a change are able to replace Ahmadinejad's regime, this still might push the government into more moderate positions and allow more freedom of information. At this point in time, I firmly believe that it will be the flow of information and the desire of the growing younger Iranian demographic that will will eventually bring an end to the autocratic rule that has kept Iran under its thumb for 30 years. I don't think getting Mousavi will be the end-all of accomplishing such a thing, but it will be a significant step in the right direction.
 
It might be interesting to see which way the Iranian Army jumps. There is no love between them and the Revolutionary Guards.
 
Correct me if I am wrong. Is it true that Akmadeenajob declared victory the moment that the poles closed and the ballots were on paper and required to be counted by hand?
 
Safe-Keeper said:
The reports that there are more than a million people in the streets are shocking. I thought Iran was such a die-hard dictatorship that such a thing wouldn't be possible.
Click to expand...
You guys must not remember the seventies when Iran overthrew the Shah of Iran. The Shah was a right bastard (although he was OUR bastard, "us" being the USA) but the people rebelled against him in such numbers that even the US military might was unable to keep him in power.

Persians are not known for their willingness to knuckle under to oppressive leaders. Khomeni was something of an outlier. His defiance of the US (by taking the hostages in the embassy) gave him virtual immunity from criticism.

I will not be surprised if Ahmadinejad doesn't politically survive this pressure. Persians are also known for tenacity. And if anything "happens" to Mousavi, it's game over for the Prez.
 
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Bill Thompson said:
Correct me if I am wrong. Is it true that Akmadeenajob declared victory the moment that the polls closed and the ballots were on paper and required to be counted by hand?
Click to expand...

Oh yeah, and there were number of other "irregularities". For one thing, the results showed Ahmadinejad as handily winning Mousavi's home town, a place where the local boy was spectacularly popular. It also showed the incumbent winning all the large cities, where Mousavi had his greatest following. In fact, the stated results showed a remarkable homogeneity to the vote across all cultures and regions.

Oh yes, there is a great big smelly rat here.
 
It's unprecedented, sure, but if the count has already been doctored, how is looking at the count going to be any different the second time?
 
I read in a time article that since many of the people in rural areas are illiterate the ballots have to be read to them. They are instructed on where to mark their vote and have no way of knowing if it's actualy going to who they say they want to vote for.
Combine that with independant observers being banned from watching and it makes a recount irrelevant. The fix could well have been put in.
 
GreNME said:
It's unprecedented, sure, but if the count has already been doctored, how is looking at the count going to be any different the second time?
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Some have speculated that they didn't really count the ballots, but constructed an outcome, like: well, there's 100,000 voters in that district, so let's say 63,215 for Ahmedinejad, 31,765 for Mousavi, etc. In such a case, it definitely helps to actually open the ballot boxes and count the ballots. At least, if it's done by someone impartial.
 
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