No, the desertcloud isn't a raincloud and doesn't fit the necessary and sufficient characteristics of a raincloud (which don't exist in this particular desert). The desertcloud takes on a completely different shape than a raincloud (it's shaped more like an inverted funnel cloud) and is formed completely differently than a raincloud. Really the only similarity between the desertcloud and the common raincloud is that they both produce precipitation.
Necessary and sufficient characteristics of the class "rainclouds":
-they're clouds*
-they produce rain (or if you like "precipitation")
("clouds" is another class with its own definition which I'm not copying into here for brevity's sake)
Nope--no particular requirements about shape or how they're formed. If you add those as characteristics of the class "desertclouds" you've got this for the class "desertclouds":
-they're clouds
-they produce rain
-they are a certain specific shape
-they only occur in a certain specific location
-they're formed in one specific manner
So "desertclouds" is a subset of "rainclouds" (which is, as indicated, a subset of "clouds").
You're trying to invent something novel and unrelated to real, extant things but still keep it real (so that you're not accused of begging the question by presuming the existence of something whose existence isn't known). It's not working.
Again, when the weatherman says there's a 50% chance of rain tomorrow, even though we don't know whether or not it will rain tomorrow, we do know that rain exists.
You can't prove the existence of rain by postulating a probability that it will rain tomorrow without being circular.
FWIW, I'm not really sure, but I think weathermen arrive at the 50% figure something like this: Plug all current conditions into a model and run it many times. 50% of the time the model results in rain. Before mathematical modeling it could have been done based on historical data: pull up all instances when the current conditions existed, and you find 50% of those resulted in rain the next day. Again, the numbers aren't just pulled out of thin air (so to speak). A weatherman can tell you where they come from, and what exactly they mean.