Poll Vault

[MattusMaximus]

I know one guy who is on the fence... one. And the poor bastard is about to drive himself nuts trying to make up his mind. For his own sake, I just told him to flip a damn coin and get it over with.

 

[David Wong]

I predict between now and election day, at least one polling firm will show McCain ahead. And when that happens, Drudge will not find a font big enough to blast the news from his homepage.

Called it. Surprised he doesn't have the little siren .gif up.

 

[MattusMaximus]

Called it. Surprised he doesn't have the little siren .gif up.

Yup, you sure nailed it. Man, the desperation over there is so thick you could cut it with a knife.

 

[BenBurch]

I know one guy who is on the fence... one. And the poor bastard is about to drive himself nuts trying to make up his mind. For his own sake, I just told him to flip a damn coin and get it over with.

Coin flips can be useful. Flip the coin and observe the first reaction you have.

If it is relief, you go with it.

If it is disappointment you ignore it and do the opposite!

 

[Wangler]

Called it. Surprised he doesn't have the little siren .gif up.

Masterful prognostication, my friend!

 

[gdnp]

Called it. Surprised he doesn't have the little siren .gif up.

Nice try, dude, but it's a major fail. If you recall, you said:

I predict between now and election day, at least one polling firm will show McCain ahead. And when that happens, Drudge will not find a font big enough to blast the news from his homepage.

So what do I find on Drudge's home page?

ZOGBY: MCCAIN MOVES INTO LEAD 48-47 IN ONE DAY POLLING

How wrong you were. Drudge clearly found a big enough font. 48 point or so, if I'm not mistaken.

 

[BenBurch]

A reasonable point. If we are seeing a further polarization of the electorate as the election nears, rather than a coming together in the middle, then it is perfectly possible for the red states to become redder, shifting the overall popular vote towards McCain, without flipping any of the battleground states in his direction.

It would appear to me that the rhetoric of the Repubs is aimed exactly at increasing polarization, only it isn't working out for them structurally.

 

[Wangler]

If Obama loses, a great many political anylysists, pollsters, and talking heads should do the honorable thing, draw their Katanas and commit seppuku.

If I am not mistaken, the wakizashi sword was used for seppuku.

Unless, of course, you are acting as second for the analyst, pollster or talking head who is attempting seppuku........

 

[davefoc]

I don't know what's going on here.

The poll that drudge linked to appears to date from 9/25

the zogby polls/summary as of 10/31 has the race at 324 to 165

I didn't quite get the zogby site and maybe I'm missing something. I couldn't find anyplace where zogby has a current popular vote estimate.

ETA:
Here's what 538 has to say:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

See under the "Trick or Treat" heading

538 has this has Obama's chances at 97%+

 

[David Wong]

As pessimistic as I have been, not even I get down based on a one-day result. What is that, like a 7% margin of error?

And the number Zogby displays on his website are the rolling averages, he doesn't post the day-by-day polling numbers. So you won't see the number he referenced anywhere on his site.

 

[BenBurch]

And Zogby appears to have a very bad set of assumptions this year.

In any case, structurally, Obama wins barring something literally earthshaking.

 

[Undesired Walrus]

Gallup:

Obama: 52%
McCain: 41%

Likely voters [Expanded]:

Obama: 52%
McCain: 43%

Likely voters [Traditional]:

Obama: 51%
MCain: 43%

PRINCETON, NJ -- The political landscape could be improving for Barack Obama in the waning days of the campaign. Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Oct. 28-30 shows him with an eight percentage point lead over John McCain among traditional likely voters -- 51% to 43% -- his largest margin to date using this historical Gallup Poll voter model.

 

[Dr Adequate]

If I am not mistaken, the wakizashi sword was used for seppuku.

Yes, it's the little details that really make a ritual suicide, isn't it? Otherwise it's just some guy offing himself.

 

[Pookster]

Rasmussen has Obama increasing his lead to 5 (51%-46%) ...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ial_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

The race continues to remain remarkably stable at the national level--this is the 37th straight day that Obama’s support has been between 50% and 52% (see trends).

Nearly a third of voters say they have already cast their ballot and Obama leads by nine among this group. Obama also has a similar lead among the small group who have not voted but still plan to vote early. The candidates are essentially even among those who plan to vote on Tuesday.

Not surprisingly, the number of persuadable voters has declined sharply as Election Day draws near. Forty-seven percent (47%) of voters say they are certain they will vote for Obama and won’t change their mind. Forty-three percent (43%) say the same about McCain. Six percent (6%) have a preference for one of the major party candidates but could change their mind, 2% plan to vote for a third party option and 2% remain undecided.

 

[Pookster]

Zogby has Obama's lead at 5 today (49%-44%) ...

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN3134134020081101

McCain, who made solid gains in Friday's single day of polling, sliced Obama's lead among independents from 15 points to 6 points and among women from 9 points to 4 points.

"There is no doubt that McCain made some gains," said pollster John Zogby. "It is enough to raise the question, is McCain making a move?"

Zogby said basically the same thing close to a week ago, then changed his mind when Obama moved up slightly in the poll. Now he's saying this again. From observing his statements in 2004 and those from the past week, he's had a tendency to play both sides of the fence when it gets down to the wire.

 

[BenBurch]

Makes better news and gets his name out. Plus it combats complacency on the Democratic side.

 

[gdnp]

Zogby has Obama's lead at 5 today (49%-44%) ...

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN3134134020081101



Zogby said basically the same thing close to a week ago, then changed his mind when Obama moved up slightly in the poll. Now he's saying this again. From observing his statements in 2004 and those from the past week, he's had a tendency to play both sides of the fence when it gets down to the wire.

Which is more plausible:

1) A net 4.5% of independent voter and 2.5% of women changed who they were going to vote for from Obama to McCain on a day when nothing much happened or

2) Zogby's polling methods leave something to be desired

We report you decide.

 

[David Wong]

This is fascinating. For the first time, all three of Gallup's voter models have converged. Likely, Likely Expanded, and Registered all show the identical 10/11 point lead for Obama.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111661/Gallup-Daily-Obama-52-McCain-42-Among-Likely-Voters.aspx

This after they've been wildly divergent over the course of the weeks they've used them. Is that because they're constantly adjusting their likely model as the election gets closer?

Gallup says they show 27% have voted already. That's amazing, when they were quoting those estimates earlier I didn't buy it for a second. Then I went to vote early in Illinois and saw the line.

They say 2/3 of Colorado has voted already.

 

[dudalb]

If I am not mistaken, the wakizashi sword was used for seppuku.

Unless, of course, you are acting as second for the analyst, pollster or talking head who is attempting seppuku........

I knew that, but figured that to the average reader,
"Katana" would be a more recognizable term for a Japanese Sword then "Wakizashi."

You are talking to somebody who is a HUGE fan of Samaurai movies, btw.

 

[gdnp]

You are talking to somebody who is a HUGE fan of Samaurai movies, btw.

Joey, do you like movies about gladiators?