No, I'm not positive on Obama right now. This whole thing has a New England Patriots feeling about it. "Sure there are some little trouble signs here and there, but we're 18-0, baby! Of COURSE we'll be the champs!"
And I'm not exactly having to dig for trouble signs.
Hey, remember that huge advantage Obama had in early voting? You know, because of the huge enthusiasm and his amazing ground game?
It doesn't exist, according to Gallup.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/111430/Early-Voting-Now-11-Could-Reach-30.aspx
Yep. Despite the young people revolution, the 100,000-man rallies, the blue tidal wave... early voters are dead even between Obama and McCain.
What about the enthusiasm gap? Isn't early voting an indication of enthusiasm?
But surely all those young voters are turning out in droves, right?
Wrong. It's the elderly who are turning out, 15% of them have voted early. Only 5% of the young voters.
THIS is why some firms exclude young voters from their likely voter criteria. Their political motivation will lead them to attend rallies, wear t-shirts and give out bumper stickers, but it will not lead them to actually pull the lever. Ask Ron Paul.
So we're sitting here speculating on an Obama landslide? Well the election is happening right now, and it's no landslide. It's a virtual tie. And while it's early, it was supposed to be early when the landslide factors - increased turnout and registration - would show up. They haven't.
We've been saying since the primaries that this was an unusual election, due to the race issue and the huge influx of new voters. It's made it harder than ever to anticipate what people are going to do, and I have a feeling the lessons to be learned in terms of how to adjust the polling won't be learned until the NEXT election. And that makes me wonder how many states could be New Hampshire-style shocks on election night.
Enough so that we'll all watch Sarah Palin waving under victory confetti? I wonder. Still no polls that show McCain ahead...
Remember, the article you're talking about is a national poll. In some of the battleground states, the early voting has been tremendous and has heavily favored Democrats by margins of 2-1 and 3-1. You're probably not going to see a huge amount of early voter turnout in Texas, California, New York, New Jersey, etc., but in a national poll of early voting, the voters in these states get thrown into the mix. Those four states alone count for what? 1/3 of the population?
And even from the Gallup article:
"Thus, while equal percentages of Obama and McCain voters have voted early, there are more of the former than of the latter,
meaning that early voting generally reflects the same Obama lead evident in the overall sample."
Edit: A story like this is going to count for much more than a national poll:
"• Florida: Republicans outnumber Democrats in absentee voting by nearly 3-to-2 among 630,000 voters, according to the state Republican Party. But Democrats are closing that gap in early in-person voting; Monday's opening day produced nearly a 2-to-1 advantage for Democrats among 150,000 voters, says McDonald at George Mason University. President Bush carried the state with 52% in 2004.
• Ohio: In Cuyahoga County, which Democrat John Kerry won by a 2-to-1 margin in 2004, nearly 45,000 people who affiliate with Democrats in primary elections have cast ballots, compared to 10,000 who vote in GOP primaries. In Hamilton County, where Bush won 53% in 2004, three in five early voters are affiliated with Democrats.
• North Carolina: Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than 2-to-1 among 480,000 early voters. Bush won the state in 2004 with 56%.
• Georgia: More than 750,000 people have voted, nearly 25% of the 2004 total. Voters don't register by party, but 36% of early voters are black — up from 22% in 2004.
• Colorado: More than 150,000 people have voted absentee by mail. The party ratio — 81,000 Republicans, 76,000 Democrats — roughly matches overall registration.
• Iowa: Nearly 200,000 people have voted so far, including 100,000 Democrats and 54,000 Republicans. That's a greater ratio than 2004, when 194,000 Democrats and 141,000 Republicans voted early. Bush won Iowa in 2004 by 10,000 votes.
• Nevada: In Clark County, which includes Las Vegas, Democrats outnumber Republicans in early and absentee voting by a 2-to-1 margin — higher than their 60%-40% registration edge and Kerry's 52%-47% margin in 2004.
•New Mexico: More than 230,000 people have voted early or absentee, and Democrats have a 62%-to-38% advantage over Republicans. That's about the same as the Democratic registration edge in a state that Bush won by 6,000 votes in 2004."
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-10-21-early-voting_N.htm
