Poll Vault

[David Wong]

What I find most interesting about the state situation is the McCain campaign has gone all-out to get Pennsylvania... when the polls show him down by 12 or 13 there. What do they know that we don't?

Anything? Do think they maybe that'll be a bad state for Obama turnout?

Politico just asked the same question, and got an interesting answer:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14830.html

Basically BOTH sides on the ground think the state is a tossup, because the polls always heavily favor democrats far more than the voting does, for whatever reason.

Interesting. If McCain flips Pennsylvania, how does that change the map? McCain is expected to win Ohio, if coverage in the last couple of days is any indicator. Is that enough?

 

[chipmunk stew]

Politico just asked the same question, and got an interesting answer:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14830.html

Basically BOTH sides on the ground think the state is a tossup, because the polls always heavily favor democrats far more than the voting does, for whatever reason.

Interesting. If McCain flips Pennsylvania, how does that change the map? McCain is expected to win Ohio, if coverage in the last couple of days is any indicator. Is that enough?

I don't see where they get that. Look at the polls in 2004, showing PA to be a true toss-up:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_sbys.html

Kerry still took it.

 

[Peephole]

McCain's getting crushed in the Midwest:

Big10 Battleground

Ohio: Obama +12
Pennsylvania: Obama +11
Michigan: Obama +22
Minnesota: Obama +19
Wisconsin: Obama +13
Iowa: Obama +13
Indiana: Obama +10
Illinois: Obama +29

Morning Call

Pennsylvania: Obama +10

Quinnipiac

Ohio: Obama +14
Florida: Obama +5
Pennsylvania: Obama +13

 

[not_so_new]

McCain's getting crushed in the Midwest:

Big10 Battleground

Ohio: Obama +12
Pennsylvania: Obama +11
Michigan: Obama +22
Minnesota: Obama +19
Wisconsin: Obama +13
Iowa: Obama +13
Indiana: Obama +10
Illinois: Obama +29

Morning Call

Pennsylvania: Obama +10

Quinnipiac

Ohio: Obama +14
Florida: Obama +5
Pennsylvania: Obama +13

I think these are a little overboard.

I live in PA and it sure does not seem like Obama is that far ahead judging by my admittedly small sample set. Lots of McCain bumper stickers, lots of yard signs etc. Mind you there are lots of Obama yard signs and bumper stickers as well but I just don't think there is any blow out happening here (again that is a small sample size and by no means should my "findings" be held up as scientific by any stretch).

 

[MattusMaximus]

Hard to believe these pollsters are polling the same populations.

Results like these are why I've never really liked polls.

 

[MattusMaximus]

If early voting is any sort of indication, McCain and the down-ticket GOP races could be in serious trouble...

Early voting suggests 2008 may see record turnout, expert says

... Michael McDonald, an associate professor of politics and government at George Mason University, said at least 2.2 million people already have voted using absentee or other types of ballots that allow them to vote before the polls open on November 4.

Twenty-nine states were accepting early ballots as of Tuesday, and Oklahoma will begin accepting early ballots next week.

In North Carolina, which has developed into a battleground state, nearly 500,000 voters have cast absentee ballots, according to the State Board of Elections. Officials at the State Board of Elections expect to surpass numbers from the 2004 election, when 700,000 people voted early.

Fifty-six percent, of those voting early in North Carolina were Democrats, while 28 percent were Republicans and 16 percent were not registered as a member of a party, the elections board said. ...

Wow. If North Carolina (traditionally a red-state) is any indication of the upcoming voting trends and partisan enthusiasm, then it's no wonder the GOP is freaking out.

 

[MattusMaximus]

Interesting. If McCain flips Pennsylvania, how does that change the map? McCain is expected to win Ohio, if coverage in the last couple of days is any indicator. Is that enough?

If McCain wins PA, it is doubtful this will allow him to win. Over at the Yahoo Political Dashboard (YPD) you can play around with various Electoral College scenarios. The only reasonable one in which I could find McCain winning was if he took PA and all of the following battleground states...

Nevada
Missouri
Ohio
Virginia
North Carolina
Florida

That would allow McCain to win 286-252 in the EC. But, looking at the polls and partisan enthusiasm, it seems highly unlikely that this scenario could play out, especially given how aggressively Obama's campaign has been in pursuing these red-states lately.

 

[MattusMaximus]

This seems to indicate yet another reason why McCain and the GOP are in trouble...

Obama, McCain neck-and-neck for rural vote

After trailing by 10 points in U.S. rural areas, Democrat Barack Obama is neck-and-neck with Republican John McCain among rural voters in 13 swing states, a potentially key group for winning the White House, according to a poll released on Thursday.

Obama was supported by 46 percent and McCain by 45 percent of 841 likely voters surveyed from October 5-21, as U.S. financial turmoil deepened, according to the poll commissioned by the nonpartisan Center for Rural Strategies in Whitesburg, Kentucky.

A month ago, the poll showed McCain led 51-41. This time, respondents said Obama would do better than McCain on the economy, taxes and "the financial crisis in the country." ...

 

[Pookster]

Here are the Bush State polls at this moment ...

Colorado (9)
October 21 - InsiderAdvantage: Obama by 5 (51%-46%)
October 20 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 5 (51%-46%)
October 17 - Rasmussen: Obama by 7 (52%-45%)
October 15 - CNN/Time: Obama by 4 (51%-47%)
October 14 - Suffolk: Obama by 4 (47%-43%)
October 14 - Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP: Obama by 9 (52%-43%)
October 12 - PPP (D): Obama by 10 (52%-42%)
October 7 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 6 (51%-45%)
October 6 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 6 (51%-45%)

Florida (27)
October 23 - Quinnipiac: Obama by 5 (49%-44%)
October 22 - NBC/Mason-Dixon: McCain by 1 (46%-45%)
October 21 - PPP (D): Obama by 1 (48%-47%)
October 20 - FOX News/Rasmussen: McCain by 1 (49%-48%)
October 17 - SurveyUSA: McCain by 2 (49%-47%)
October 17 - Research 2000: Obama by 4 (49%-45%)
October 15 - Datamar: Obama by 5 (47%-42%)
October 15 - CNN/Time: Obama by 5 (51%-46%)
October 15 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 4 (48%-44%)
October 13 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 5 (51%-46%)
October 10 - Research 2000: Obama by 5 (49%-44%)
October 10 - Strategic Vision (R): Obama by 8 (52%-44%)
October 9 - Rasmussen: Obama by 3 (50%-47%)
October 7 - Mason-Dixon: Obama by 2 (48%-46%)
October 6 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 7 (52%-45%)

Indiana (11)
October 23 - Big10 Battleground: Obama by 10 (51%-41%)
October 21 - PPP (D): Obama by 2 (48%-46%)
October 9 - Rasmussen: McCain by 7 (50%-43%)
October 7 - CNN/Time: McCain by 5 (51%-46%)
October 7 - Research 2000: Tied (46%-46%)
October 1 - SurveyUSA: McCain by 3 (48%-45%)

Iowa (7)
October 23 - Big10 Battleground: Obama by 13 (52%-39%)
October 11 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 13 (54%-41%)
September 27 - Rasmussen: Obama by 8 (51%-43%)
September 24 - Marist: Obama by 10 (51%-41%)

Missouri (11)
October 20 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 5 (49%-44%)
October 20 - Suffolk: McCain by 1 (45%-44%)
October 17 - Rasmussen: Obama by 6 (52%-46%)
October 15 - CNN/Time: McCain by 1 (49%-48%)
October 14 - PPP (D): Obama by 2 (48%-46%)
October 13 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 3 (50%-47%)
October 13 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 8 (51%-43%)
October 6 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 3 (50%-47%)
October 1 - CNN/Time: Obama by 1 (49%-48%)

Nevada (5)
October 22 - CNN/Time: Obama by 5 (51%-46%)
October 17 - Rasmussen: Obama by 5 (50%-45%)
October 15 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 3 (49%-46%)
October 12 - LVRJ/Mason-Dixon: Obama by 2 (47%-45%)
October 7 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 2 (49%-47%)
October 7 - Reno Gazette-Journal: Obama by 7 (50%-43%)
October 3 - Rasmussen: Obama by 4 (51%-47%)

New Mexico (5)
October 15 - Rasmussen: Obama by 13 (55%-42%)
October 15 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 7 (52%-45%)
October 6 - Albuquerque Journal: Obama by 5 (45%-40%)
October 2 - Rasmussen: Obama by 5 (49%-44%)
October 2 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 8 (52%-44%)

North Carolina (15)
October 22 - CNN/Time: Obama by 4 (51%-47%)
October 22 - WSOC-TV: Obama by 2 (48%-46%)
October 21 - Politico/InAdv: Obama by 1 (49%-48%)
October 21 - SurveyUSA: Tied (47%-47%)
October 21 - Civitas/TelOpinion (R): Obama by 3 (48%-45%)
October 20 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 3 (51%-48%)
October 20 - PPP (D): Obama by 7 (51%-44%)
October 18 - Research 2000: Obama by 2 (46%-44%)
October 15 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 2 (48%-46%)
October 14 - PPP (D): Obama by 3 (46%-43%)
October 13 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Tied (48%-48%)
October 11 - WSOC-TV: McCain by 2 (48%-46%)
October 9 - Civitas/TelOpinion (R): Obama by 5 (48%-43%)
October 9 - Rasmussen: Obama by 1 (49%-48%)
October 7 - SurveyUSA: McCain by 3 (49%-46%)
October 7 - CNN/Time: Tied (49%-49%)
October 6 - PPP (D): Obama by 6 (50%-44%)

North Dakota (3)
October 17 - Research 2000: Tied (45%-45%)
October 16 - North Dakota UTU (D): Obama by 3 (44%-41%)
October 13 - Forum Poll/MSUM: Obama by 2 (45%-43%)

Ohio (20)
October 23 - Quinnipiac: Obama by 14 (52%-38%)
October 23 - Big10 Battleground: Obama by 12 (53%-41%)
October 22 - CNN/Time: Obama by 4 (50%-46%)
October 20 - FOX News/Rasmussen: McCain by 2 (49%-47%)
October 20 - Suffolk: Obama by 9 (51%-42%)
October 19 - NBC/Mason-Dixon: McCain by 1 (46%-45%)
October 16 - Rasmussen: Tied (49%-49%)
October 14 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 5 (50%-45%)
October 13 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 2 (49%-47%)
October 13 - Marist: Obama by 4 (49%-45%)
October 11 - Ohio Newspaper Poll: McCain by 2 (48%-46%)
October 10 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 5 (49%-44%)
October 10 - Strategic Vision (R): Obama by 2 (48%-46%)

Virginia (13)
October 22 - CNN/Time: Obama by 10 (54%-44%)
October 21 - NBC/Mason-Dixon: Obama by 2 (47%-45%)
October 20 - Rasmussen: Obama by 10 (54%-44%)
October 20 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 6 (51%-45%)
October 15 - CNN/Time: Obama by 10 (53%-43%)
October 13 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 3 (50%-47%)
October 9 - PPP (D): Obama by 8 (51%-43%)
October 6 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 2 (50%-48%)
October 6 - Suffolk: Obama by 12 (51%-39%)
October 6 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 10 (53%-43%)

 

[Pookster]

The national tracking polls at the moment ...

October 23 - Hotline/FD Tracking: Obama by 5 (47%-42%) -- Unchanged from Oct 22
October 23 - GW/Battleground Tracking: Obama by 4 (49%-45%) -- Obama lead +2 from Oct 22
October 23 - Rasmussen Tracking: Obama by 7 (52%-45%) -- Obama lead +1 from Oct 22
October 23 - Reuters/CSpan/Zogby Tracking: Obama by 12 (52%-40%) -- Obama lead +2 from Oct 22
October 22 - IBD/TIPP Tracking: Obama by 3.7 (45.7%-42.0%) -- Obama lead -2.3 from Oct 21
October 22 - Gallup Tracking (Likely Voters Trad.): Obama by 5 (50%-45%) -- Obama lead -2 from Oct 21
October 22 - Gallup Tracking (Likely Voters Exp.): Obama by 8 (52%-44%) -- Obama lead -2 from Oct 21
October 22 - ABC News/Wash Post: Obama by 11 (54%-43%) -- Obama lead +2 from Oct 21


From Rasmussen ...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ial_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

That seven-point lead is Obama’s largest in nearly two weeks. This is also the first time since October 11 that the Democratic candidate has reached the 52% level of support, his highest total of the year.

For the past 28 days, Obama’s support has stayed between 50% or above 52% every day. During that period, the number voting for McCain has stayed in the 44% to 46% range and the gap between the candidates has ranged from four to eight percentage points

From Zogby ...

http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSTRE49J0LF20081023

Obama has made steady gains over the last four days and has tripled his lead on McCain in the past week of polling.

"Obama's expansion is really across the board," pollster John Zogby said. "It seems to be among almost every demographic group."

The Illinois senator saw his lead among women -- who are expected to play a decisive role in this election -- increase to 18 points from 16 points on Wednesday.

Other recent national polls have given Obama a narrower lead, but Zogby said he was confident in his sampling methods.

The latest poll showed a continued erosion of McCain's support even among his "base" voters.

While Obama wins the backing of 86 percent of Democrats, only 81 percent of Republicans back the Arizona senator -- down from figures in the low 90s immediately after the Republican national convention in early September.

Obama holds a 6-point lead among men, 48 percent to 42 percent, while white voters -- who had been among McCain's core support groups -- now only back McCain by a 2-point margin.

 

[Gnu World Order]

Big10 Battleground

Ohio: Obama +12
Pennsylvania: Obama +11
Michigan: Obama +22
Minnesota: Obama +19
Wisconsin: Obama +13
Iowa: Obama +13
Indiana: Obama +10
Illinois: Obama +29

I don't know, I had my doubts about Big 10 Battleground in their first round of polls a few weeks ago, and this bunch doesn't make me trust them any more. Some of these states seem way out of the ranges shown by other pollsters.

That said, I hope they're right.

 

[Pookster]

I don't know, I had my doubts about Big 10 Battleground in their first round of polls a few weeks ago, and this bunch doesn't make me trust them any more. Some of these states seem way out of the ranges shown by other pollsters.

That said, I hope they're right.

I think some of them are "out there", but Iowa and Pennsylvania polled about where others have been polling them. Indiana and Ohio are the one that really sticks out to me as likely way out there.

ETA: Concerning Ohio, Quinnipiac has it at +14 for Obama. They have a good track record with their polls. So, who knows.

 

[Undesired Walrus]

Ohio (20)
October 23 - Quinnipiac: Obama by 14 (52%-38%)

Have to be kidding me. Really?

 

[Pookster]

Have to be kidding me. Really?

No kidding. Quinnipiac has Obama up by 14 in Ohio. They're one of the more accurate polling organizations too. Even if they're wrong by 10 points, it's still significant that they show a lead of any size greater than a few points for Obama.

ETA: Link to the poll - http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1223

 

[Pookster]

Gallup's latest ...

October 23 - Gallup Tracking (Likely Voters Trad.): Obama by 4 (50%-46%) -- Obama lead -1 from Oct 22
October 23 - Gallup Tracking (Likely Voters Exp.): Obama by 6 (51%-45%) -- Obama lead -2 from Oct 22

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111415/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Has-Modest-Lead-Among-Likely-Voters.aspx

Gallup Poll Daily tracking shows Barack Obama running ahead of John McCain among likely voters -- 50% to 46% using the "traditional" model Gallup has employed in past elections, and 51% to 45% using an "expanded" model that takes into account possibly greater turnout by new or infrequent voters.

 

[David Wong]

Shock from the Gallup poll:

ZERO increase in first-time voters over 2004. All that hype about the massive youth turnout and the feverish Obama registration drives? Gallup says it absolutely doesn't exist, at all.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111331/No-Increase-Proportion-First-Time-Voters.aspx

Same proportion of new voters back when it was boring old John Kerry running.

That's probably the most stunning poll I've seen in the election season so far. If that's true... suddenly you can understand why they only have Obama up by 4 points.

 

[Jimbo07]

Shock from the Gallup poll:

ZERO increase in first-time voters over 2004. All that hype about the massive youth turnout and the feverish Obama registration drives? Gallup says it absolutely doesn't exist, at all.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111331/No-Increase-Proportion-First-Time-Voters.aspx

Same proportion of new voters back when it was boring old John Kerry running.

That's probably the most stunning poll I've seen in the election season so far. If that's true... suddenly you can understand why they only have Obama up by 4 points.

I've been confused by your posts in here. Are you a McCain supporter, or cautioning fellow Obama supporters to not get overconfident? The reason I ask is you neglected to include the following quote from the gallup poll (bolding mine):

This to some degree may reflect the high turnout in 2004, which was about 10 points higher than it had been in recent elections, and thus would have significantly diminished the available pool of potential first-time voters for the 2008 election. Thus, the fact that the 2008 estimate of first-time voters is no lower than the 2004 estimate may still reflect an impressive influx of new voters this year, even though it may not be proportionately higher than in the last election.

The stats after the election are going to be parsed, mined, massaged and otherwise scrutinized for a long time...

 

[Dr Adequate]

Shock from the Gallup poll:

ZERO increase in first-time voters over 2004. All that hype about the massive youth turnout and the feverish Obama registration drives? Gallup says it absolutely doesn't exist, at all.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111331/No-Increase-Proportion-First-Time-Voters.aspx

Same proportion of new voters back when it was boring old John Kerry running.

That's probably the most stunning poll I've seen in the election season so far. If that's true... suddenly you can understand why they only have Obama up by 4 points.

Well, a few points spring to mind.

(1) We don't know how potential first time voters, as a proportion of the electorate, has changed since 2004.

(2) 13% is a proportion. Any increase in FTV turnout would be masked by increased turnout in other groups.

(3) Obama's ability to turn out the FTV will be masked, in the count of likely first-time voters, by his (or McCain's!) ability to get embryonic Republicans to stay home. Remember, it's only people who vote for him that he's meant to mobilize. From the article you reference:

First-time voters show solid support for Obama, 65% to 31%. That is a better showing for the Democratic candidate than in 2004, when first-time voters favored John Kerry over George W. Bush by 55% to 41%.​

 

[Undesired Walrus]

Two sides of the media are blaring. One that declares that Obama's lead is growing, and one that suggests the race is tightening.

Which is it?

 

[Pookster]

Two sides of the media are blaring. One that declares that Obama's lead is growing, and one that suggests the race is tightening.

Which is it?

IMO, neither. Obama leads by a stable 4-5 points for over a month now. I believe you're seeing natural noise and volatility that comes with the methodology of some polling organizations. Some have very high MOEs which tend to make noise look like significant shifts from poll to poll.

The one I recommend paying attention to is Rasmussen. He has an excellent track record. Large sample, small MOE, and few (if any) unexplainable shifts in the poll.