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McCain is done

Oliver

Penultimate Amazing
Oliver
Joined
Aug 12, 2006
Messages
17,396
I'm following the electoral map for quite some time now - and
now it's obvious that McCain drowns himself and Palin down the
Toilet of irrelevance - or as he would call it: "Suspending the
campaign":

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

So what shall we talk about concerning the election now that
Obama is the new President? :)
 
Chucky D has the same opinion on MSNBC.

I see no way counting up the EC Votes that McPalin takes the cake.

So now it's about the new bed sheets, and purple curtains at the White House.

Game, Set, Match. Obama wins.
 
XBoxWarrior said:
Game, Set, Match. Obama wins.
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Then I hope you love high taxes, high unemployment, a sluggish economy, terrorism, socialism and lies. Because that's what Obama will bring.

It's beggars and choosers folks. And the beggars have discovered they can outvote the choosers. I hope you like working for their freebies. :D
 
Is it not a little early to be counting chickens?

Obama looks secure but there are still 4 weeks to go. That is usually when our election campaigns start :boggled:
 
BeAChooser said:
Then I hope you love high taxes, high unemployment, a sluggish economy, terrorism, socialism and lies. Because that's what Obama will bring.
Click to expand...

And pestilence! Wars! Disease! Famine! Dogs and cats, living together! Mass hysteria!!!
 
Even a big gaffe won't work. Its all about turnout. Obama has going to have tons of it. The extended primary process that democrats whined about worked to his advantage since he has battle tested organizations in place in states that usually don't even get a real say in the primary season.

His people are going door to door, registering people everywhere, using all that money he's gaining from being outside the system, and canvassing communities across the country. I wouldn't be surprised if he comes in higher than he's polling at.
 
XBoxWarrior said:
Chucky D has the same opinion on MSNBC.

I see no way counting up the EC Votes that McPalin takes the cake.

So now it's about the new bed sheets, and purple curtains at the White House.

Game, Set, Match. Obama wins.
Click to expand...


Personally I suspect that Obama will not change the curtains in the
White House. But what about the Carpet? Isn't it tradition that the
First Lady choses it's colors and appearance?
 
I think Obama is a very heavy favorite, but he needs to keep up the get out the vote campaign , and not get sloppy. I think overconfidence is what the Obama people have got to guard against .
It ain't over till it's over.
I am voting for Obama, and I don't lot to see him lose because some people who were going to vote for him decide to stay home because he has it in the bag.
 
corplinx said:
Even a big gaffe won't work. Its all about turnout. Obama has going to have tons of it. The extended primary process that democrats whined about worked to his advantage since he has battle tested organizations in place in states that usually don't even get a real say in the primary season.

His people are going door to door, registering people everywhere, using all that money he's gaining from being outside the system, and canvassing communities across the country. I wouldn't be surprised if he comes in higher than he's polling at.
Click to expand...


Corplinx brings up a good point here - the GOTV effort for Obama's campaign is going to be enormous. I think it'll likely blow away any other GOTV efforts that we've seen in quite some time.

I just read this good article today on MSNBC about how the primaries worked to his advantage, essentially allowing him to register an amazing number of new Democratic voters as well as build the organization to which Corplinx is referring...

Obama may benefit from registration gains

As the deadline for voter registration arrives today in many states, Sen. Barack Obama's campaign is poised to benefit from a wave of newcomers to the rolls in key states in numbers that far outweigh any gains made by Republicans.

In the past year, the rolls have expanded by about 4 million voters in a dozen key states -- 11 Obama targets that were carried by George W. Bush in 2004 (Ohio, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana, Missouri, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada and New Mexico) plus Pennsylvania, the largest state carried by Sen. John F. Kerry that Sen. John McCain is targeting.

In Florida, Democratic registration gains this year are more than double those made by Republicans; in Colorado and Nevada the ratio is 4 to 1, and in North Carolina it is 6 to 1. Even in states with nonpartisan registration, the trend is clear -- of the 310,000 new voters in Virginia, a disproportionate share live in Democratic strongholds. ...
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This is even worse news for McCain and the GOP. Even if McCain/Palin can whip up the base enough with the latest "terrorist" garbage, the Republicans simply don't have the numbers. In most of the key areas this year, the Democrats just basically outnumber the Republicans - of course, the real key is going to be getting these new voters to the polls. But that's why Obama started investing so early in his GOTV organization.

I think, come Election Day, we're going to see it pay off - big time.
 
Oliver said:
I'm following the electoral map for quite some time now - and
now it's obvious that McCain drowns himself and Palin down the
Toilet of irrelevance - or as he would call it: "Suspending the
campaign":

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

So what shall we talk about concerning the election now that
Obama is the new President? :)
Click to expand...


Don't get cocky Oliver. Taking a victory dance before you've even crossed the finish line is just plain stupid. Better to dash across the line waaaaay ahead of the other guy and remove all doubt that you skunked him.

I think Obama's campaign is going to keep running all-out from now until Election Day, as they should. They don't want this election to come down to just a few contested electoral votes. They don't want a "George Bush mandate", they want a real mandate with a real and obvious margin of victory.
 
dudalb said:
DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN
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Just as the Piltdown man does not refute evolution, one off election does not refute the field of statistics. There are a lot of careful methodological caveats that need to be taken into account with polls, in particular sample bias: people who answer phone polls are not neccesarily representative of the whole. However, pollsters are now aware of this and compensate for their polls by weighing according to demographic factors. There are still other sources of error, and further precision can be gotten by aggregating many polls and taking into account how each individual poll might have a systemic bias in one direction or another.

Although certainly, there is valid reason to not get cocky; and as Mattus notes, every additional vote means more of a claim for a mandate, so even if Obama is absolutely and justifiably certain he will win in a landslide, there's reason for him to keep on pushing to see if he can pick off Montana or Georgia or something. At the same time though, I feel that excessive pessimism can be just as deadly as excessive optimism, in that if you don't think your candidate will win why bother to volunteer?
 
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The model simulations at fivethirtyeight.com are fairly convincing, and they still show McCain winning about 13% of the time. Fairly improbable, but not impossible.
 
Predicting the end for McCain is not yet as bad as waiting for Strom Thurmond to die but he's not someone who can safely be writen of untill it is all over.
 
Then I hope you love high taxes, high unemployment, a sluggish economy, terrorism, socialism and lies. Because that's what Obama will bring.
Click to expand...

If you are right, then I'll buy you a Coke.
 
MattusMaximus said:
Don't get cocky Oliver. Taking a victory dance before you've even crossed the finish line is just plain stupid. Better to dash across the line waaaaay ahead of the other guy and remove all doubt that you skunked him.
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I'm not dancing at all. McCain is "saving the economy" that actually
is drowning down the toilet as well. He kicked himself out of the game,
end of story.

Now what colors do you prefer regarding the curtains and carpets in
the White House?

ETA: The politico map is even more disastrous: :popcorn2
http://www.politico.com/convention/swingstate.html
 
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joobz said:
You just described the last 8 years.
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It's a matter of degree. In every one of those categories, an Obama administration will be worse than the Bush adminstration ... hands down. And I happen to think that McCain will undo some of the damage Bush did ... in other words, go in the opposite direction from Obama.
 
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