Poll Vault

[Pookster]

Gallup has Obama up by 2 as well.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110446/Gallup-Daily-Obama-47-McCain-45.aspx

Now this feels more familiar. It's pretty much like the conventions and VP picks didn't happen.

The only difference is the undecides pool is smaller, but the undecides broke exactly the same way as the decides, keeping the ratio the same.

Interesting discussion from the article ...

Today's report includes two days of interviewing conducted after reports of the collapse of Wall Street financial institutions and changes in the stock market began to dominate the news on Monday. Gallup Poll Daily tracking data show that in each of these individual days (Monday and Tuesday) consumer ratings of the U.S. economy have become more negative. Similarly, in each of these individual days' interviewing, Obama has led McCain in election tracking. There is thus a correlation between the bad financial news and Obama's gains, although the data do not allow us to conclude definitively that there is a causal connection between the two.

Gallup has generally found that the public gives Obama an edge over McCain on handling of the economy. It makes me wonder if the McCain campaign gaffes over the past few days have contributed to this shift.

 

[Gnu World Order]

Gallup has generally found that the public gives Obama an edge over McCain on handling of the economy. It makes me wonder if the McCain campaign gaffes over the past few days have contributed to this shift.

That, and I think the wild over-reaction to the lipstick/pig thing really sped up the process of people getting tired of Sarah Palin.

 

[varwoche]

Looks like the RealClearPolitics aggregate streams are on the verge of crossing again.

 

[David Wong]

Looks like the RealClearPolitics aggregate streams are on the verge of crossing again.

The only thing keeping McCain in the lead is they're still counting week-old polls taken when the convention bounce was at its peak.

 

[MattusMaximus]

Intrade has Obama in the lead this morning, 50.2 to 49.3 over McCain.

http://www.intrade.com/

Intrade now has

Obama 50.9
McCain 48.6

with Obama rising and McCain dropping. It seems like Intrade is slowly coming into line with the other prediction markets.

Speaking of which...

Iowa Electronic Market-WTA

Obama 59.4
McCain 41.5

and NewsFutures

Obama 54
McCain 46

Looks like McCain is in trouble. Now that the Palin-shine is starting to wear off, his convention bounce is gone, and people are starting to really pay attention to the issues (read: the economy), this is definitely bad news for the GOP going into the end of September.

I will point out that in 2004 it was the GOP which was dominating by this point in the election. This was when the swift-boating of Kerry was at its most intense. By contrast, it is obvious the McCain campaign which is on the defensive now, for a variety of reasons (think economy is sound, lipstick, and BlackBerry - for instance), and I think that unless Obama does something majorly stupid (such as eating a baby live on TV) it seems it is his race to win.

 

[David Wong]

CBS News/NY Times has Obama up by 5:

http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/Sep08b-Elec.pdf

That's Likely Voters, and they skew toward Obama. That's the poll that had Obama up by 8 after the DNC, and only had McCain up by 2 at the height of his bounce. So they seem to give 3 points or so to Obama beyond what everybody else has.

 

[MattusMaximus]

Interesting discussion from the article ...

Gallup has generally found that the public gives Obama an edge over McCain on handling of the economy. It makes me wonder if the McCain campaign gaffes over the past few days have contributed to this shift.

No, according to Gallup, Obama has had an edge over McCain on the economy all along (last I saw two weeks ago it was a 52-40 split). McCain's recent screwups (they seem to be legion) have only made it that much worse for his campaign.

 

[Pookster]

No, according to Gallup, Obama has had an edge over McCain on the economy all along (last I saw two weeks ago it was a 52-40 split). McCain's recent screwups (they seem to be legion) have only made it that much worse for his campaign.

No ... what? I said basically what you said.

Gallup has generally found that the public gives Obama an edge over McCain on handling of the economy. It makes me wonder if the McCain campaign gaffes over the past few days have contributed to this shift.

 

[MattusMaximus]

No ... what? I said basically what you said.

Gotcha. I read it differently. My bad.

 

[Undesired Walrus]

Any shift on Ohio yet?

 

[Pookster]

Any shift on Ohio yet?

The polls out the past two days ...

CNN/Time has Obama up by 2 (49%-47%)
Rasmussen has McCain up by 3 (48%-45%)


Both are within their margins of error. It's basically a tossup, just as it was before the conventions. It'll be a late election night for this one.

 

[Pookster]

Some other national polls out over the past day ...

CBS/NYT has Obama up by 6 (49%-43%)
Quinnipiac has Obama up by 4 (49%-45%)
Ipsos Public Affairs has it at a tie (45%-45%)
Hotline/FD Tracking has Obama up by 3 (45%-42%)

 

[Pookster]

Some quotes from the CBS/NYT poll article ...

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26763744/

Polls taken after the Republican convention suggested that Mr. McCain had enjoyed a surge of support — particularly among white women after his selection of Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska as his running mate — but the latest poll indicates “the Palin effect” was, at least so far, a limited burst of interest.

The poll also underlined the extent to which Mr. McCain’s convention — and his selection of Ms. Palin — had excited Republican base voters about his candidacy ...

But the Times/CBS News poll suggested that Ms. Palin’s selection has, to date, helped Mr. McCain only among Republican base voters; there was no evidence of significantly increased support for him among female voters in general. White women are evenly divided between Mr. McCain and Mr. Obama; before the conventions, Mr. McCain led Mr. Obama among white women by a margin of 44 percent to 37 percent.

By contrast, at this point in the 2004 campaign, President Bush was leading Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts, the Democratic challenger, by 56 percent to 37 percent among white women.

This poll found evidence of concern about Ms. Palin’s qualifications to be president, particularly compared to those of Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware, Mr. Obama’s choice for a running mate. More than 6 in 10 of those surveyed said they would be concerned if Mr. McCain could not finish his term and Ms. Palin had to take over. In contrast, two-thirds of voters surveyed said Mr. Biden would be qualified to take over for Mr. Obama, a figure that cut across party lines.

 

[chipmunk stew]

From the Quinnipiac poll:

Number one issue:
47% said Economy - favor Obama 56%-38%
15% said War in Iraq - favor Obama 64%-33%
11% said Terrorism (Reps 23%, Dems 2%) - favor McCain 92%-6%

 

[Pookster]

From the Quinnipiac poll:

Number one issue:
47% said Economy - favor Obama 56%-38%
15% said War in Iraq - favor Obama 64%-33%
11% said Terrorism (Reps 23%, Dems 2%) - favor McCain 92%-6%

Also from that poll, McCain is getting 90% of the Republican vote, Obama is getting 88% of the Democratic vote, and they're basically splitting the independent vote. This is an improvement for both within their own party based on previous polls I've seen.

ETA: They're also evenly splitting the white women vote, just as the CBS poll indicated.

 

[Pookster]

Rasmussen has it at a tie today (48%-48%) ...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ial_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

As the financial sector meltdown continues, consumer confidence has plummeted, falling 8% overnight. Forty-seven percent (47%) of voters now rate the economy as the top issue of Election 2008. That’s up from 41% this past Saturday morning. The number saying the country is heading in the right direction fell from 23% on Saturday to 18% now.

 

[chipmunk stew]

Gallup tracking today: Obama +4% (48%-44%)

 

[Pookster]

Looking at where the poll numbers really matter, at the moment Obama has all of Kerry's States except for New Hampshire under his wing. However, NH seems to be polling more safely for Obama lately. McCain continues to have some Bush States at big risk. Here are the ones "up for grabs" at the moment with the candidate seemingly polling the strongest at the moment ...

Colorado (9) - tossup
Iowa (7) - Obama
Nevada (5) - McCain
New Mexico (5) - Obama
Ohio (20) - tossup
Virginia (13) - McCain


Obama starts with 251. Add Iowa and New Mexico for 263McCain starts with 227. Add Nevada & Virginia for 245

Magic Numbers:
Obama - 7McCain - 25
I had thought Michigan and Indiana could possibly end up in play, but I doubt it ... for now. Florida might become a vulnerable Bush State, but its polls are all over the place with it either tied or McCain with a relatively safe lead.

 

[Wangler]

FiveThirtyEight sure does lag; they show McCain still with a lead...methinks that they will show Obama back on top by this weekend.

 

[MattusMaximus]

Latest from the markets...

IEM-WTA
Obama 61.0
McCain 40.7

IEM-Vote Share
Obama 52.5
McCain 48.0

NewsFutures
Obama 53
McCain 47

Intrade
Obama 51.6
McCain 47.7

I think that unless McCain can drastically reverse this trend before the debates, he's sunk. That gives him a little over a week (first debate is on the 26th) - not good odds.