Poll Vault

[Pookster]

Are these using rolling averages? if so, when will we have results based only on data from after the speeches?

What they said.

It's a three-day rolling average, so Monday's numbers (edit: reporting results from Fri-Sun) will be the first in which all the interviews took place after McCain's speech.

It's in his link, this is from polling down Wednesday through Friday. So most of the polling was done after Palin spoke Wednesday night, some was done after McCain spoke Thursday night. The polls we see tomorrow and Monday should have McCain up by a point or two.

The only hope for the Obama people is that these convention bounces fade, so that it could return to an equilibrium where Obama is still up by 3 (as I was joking about last week).

 

[Pookster]

It's in his link, this is from polling down Wednesday through Friday. So most of the polling was done after Palin spoke Wednesday night, some was done after McCain spoke Thursday night. The polls we see tomorrow and Monday should have McCain up by a point or two.

The only hope for the Obama people is that these convention bounces fade, so that it could return to an equilibrium where Obama is still up by 3 (as I was joking about last week).

While the national polls are interesting and can be very telling, it's the polls in the Battleground States that I'm waiting to see. Those will tell the story.

 

[gdnp]

What they said.

I'm going with Pookster's earlier predictions. Mondays polls put us right back where we were before the conventions, with Obama up by 2 or so.

 

[Pookster]

Convention bounces always fade somewhat. If McCain surpasses Obama, it's likely to be short-lived (barring some other unforeseen news).

The polls around September 16 will be the ones that will give us the best idea of who has the lead and how much they lead by. There's just way too much volatility with polls taken around the convention weeks.

 

[Pookster]

I'm going with Pookster's earlier predictions. Mondays polls put us right back where we were before the conventions, with Obama up by 2 or so.

I don't know if Obama will be up by two. He could be down by two, but I wouldn't fret over it. You'll be seeing the full effect of the convention bounce by either Monday or Tuesday. After that, the conventions and all their speeches will just be an afterthought.

 

[BenBurch]

I don't know if Obama will be up by two. He could be down by two, but I wouldn't fret over it. You'll be seeing the full effect of the convention bounce by either Monday or Tuesday. After that, the conventions and all their speeches will just be an afterthought.

That is indeed how all prior years I have looked at have gone.

 

[MattusMaximus]

It is always useful to look at the Prediction Markets as a check to see if the poll is being accepted. For example, last week's surprise Zogby Poll which showed McCain with a two-point lead made nary a ripple at InTrade indicating that traders heavily discounted it (as I did as well when I posted it).

It is interesting to see how polls and prediction markets affect and influence each other.

My guess is that Mattus will stop talking about the superiority of markets the moment McCain shares top 50 cents, which I anticipate as a possibility by Monday.

Why would I do that? Don't be hatin'...

My prediction is that the markets will hold relatively steady around their current positions through Monday. McCain certainly won't top out 50 cents by Monday.

Care to make a wager on it, Brainster?

 

[MattusMaximus]

Btw, one reason I think there is a disparity between the markets and polls (with markets giving Obama an advantage) is because of the huge advantage that Democrats have had in voter registration.

I made a separate thread about it: http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?t=122944

That is one of the reasons why I keep saying (as the markets indicate) that McCain is in trouble. I would appreciate any thoughts or comments on that other thread.

 

[Brainster]

Btw, one reason I think there is a disparity between the markets and polls (with markets giving Obama an advantage) is because of the huge advantage that Democrats have had in voter registration.

"There's a word for politicians who say they're going to attract a lot of new voters to the polls: Losers."--James Carville.

The markets and the polls should start moving in sync. During the summer it was easy for investors to assume that at some point Obama would take command of the race. But as time goes by, he's been dropping; from 66 two months ago to 57 or so today. There are twin factors that affect the values at InTrade or any of the other markets; time remaining and the CW. Right now the CW still says that Obama is going to win, but the market has become significantly less confident.

If either candidate picks up, say, a ten point lead in the polls (and seems to be maintaining it) at this point we should expect the markets to show a much larger lead, maybe 70-30, because a ten-point lead with fewer than two months to go is probably getting to be a safe lead.

And if McCain shows any kind of a lead (as seems likely in the next few days), then we should expect the markets to tighten even further. You're probably right that he won't break 50 by Monday.

 

[Pookster]

Rasmussen has it at a tie today (48%-48%)

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ial_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

McCain earns the vote from 89% of Republicans while Obama is supported by 81% of Democrats. McCain also manages to attract 15% of Democrats while Obama gets 9% of the Republican vote. Voters not affiliated with either major party remain fairly evenly divided between the two men.

 

[gdnp]

Wow. McCain needs 89% of the republican vote to pull to a tie. That may be hard to maintain. A few more republicans losing their jobs or their health care...

 

[Pookster]

Wow. McCain needs 89% of the republican vote to pull to a tie. That may be hard to maintain. A few more republicans losing their jobs or their health care...

Bush got 93% of Republicans in 2004. Kerry got 89% of Democrats. They basically split the independent vote. So they both McCain and Obama have a little ways to go within their own parties.

Bush attracted 11% of Democrats, while McCain is polling around 15% right now. Kerry only got 6% of Republicans, while Obama is getting 9%.

 

[Brainster]

Wow. McCain needs 89% of the republican vote to pull to a tie. That may be hard to maintain. A few more republicans losing their jobs or their health care...

It's a function of Rasmussen's model:

Like all polling firms, Rasmussen Reports weights its data to reflect the population at large. Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process. Our baseline targets are established based upon survey interviews with a sample of adults nationwide completed during the preceding three months (a total of 45,000 interviews). For September, the targets are 39.7% Democrat, 32.1% Republican, and 28.2% unaffiliated (see party trends and analysis). For the month of August, the targets were 40.6% Democrat, 31.6% Republican, and 27.8% unaffiliated.

If you start with the assumption that there are 20% more Democrats than Republicans in the country, of course McCain's going to need a higher percentage of his own party (and a higher percentage of Democrats than Obama has of Republicans) in order to break even.

 

[David Wong]

Doing the math, I'm going to assume that by Tuesday we'll see McCain up by 2-3 points (unless his speech just totally shook the nation to its foundations).

As fast as the bounces have been fading I'd further assume that he'll be back down by a point or two by the end of next week. If not, if we have some kind of indication his bounce is a permanent trend, then he should be in good shape the rest of the way.

But one way or another he does actually have to take some kind of statistically significant lead at some point. So far his bounces have been measured entirely in his ability to tie Obama. He has to stop playing from behind at some point.

 

[David Wong]

Gallup has McCain up by 3 today:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110050/Gallup-Daily-McCain-Moves-Ahead-48-45.aspx

That's polling done Sept 4-6 (Thursday through Saturday). So most of the polling was done after McCain spoke and all of it was done after Palin spoke.

So if the trend is similar to Obama's he could be up a little more than I predicted, 4-5 points by Mon/Tues.

 

[MattusMaximus]

Bush got 93% of Republicans in 2004. Kerry got 89% of Democrats. They basically split the independent vote. So they both McCain and Obama have a little ways to go within their own parties.

Bush attracted 11% of Democrats, while McCain is polling around 15% right now. Kerry only got 6% of Republicans, while Obama is getting 9%.

Has anyone taken into account the fact that Democrats outnumber Republicans now by about a 4-to-3 ratio? And that's not even counting the huge increase in Democratic voter registration I mentioned earlier.

Try running the numbers taking party affiliation into account, and you'll see that McCain's in bad trouble. His only chance would be to make massive inroads with independents, which I don't see happening.

I'll show you the calculation later. Gotta go now...

 

[Wangler]

Has anyone taken into account the fact that Democrats outnumber Republicans now by about a 4-to-3 ratio? And that's not even counting the huge increase in Democratic voter registration I mentioned earlier.

Try running the numbers taking party affiliation into account, and you'll see that McCain's in bad trouble. His only chance would be to make massive inroads with independents, which I don't see happening.

I'll show you the calculation later. Gotta go now...

If I understand your question, Brainster addressed this a few posts ago.

Polling firms take that into account, I understand, which means McCain might not be so bad off.........

 

[MattusMaximus]

If I understand your question, Brainster addressed this a few posts ago.

Yes, I see that now. Thanks for pointing it out.

Polling firms take that into account, I understand, which means McCain might not be so bad off.........

Hmmm... and I did the calculation just now myself (using Rasmussen's numbers), and here's what I came up with

Obama 49.1%
McCain 48.6%

This isn't the 48-48 split reported - am I missing something? Perhaps the Rasmussen report is also taking into account votes for Barr and Nader? Does anyone know details on this?

Also, we should note this is just the numbers from one poll. What about others such as Real Clear Politics, which aggregate many polls? Not to mention, there is still the wild card of new voter registration to take into account, which is a point where the Democrats are far ahead of the Republicans. I still maintain this last point is one of the key factors in the performance of the prediction markets.

Based upon the Rasmussen numbers, I will agree that it doesn't look as bad at first blush for McCain. But still, the prediction markets all have him down on WTA by anywhere from 16-20 points. And the IEM vote-share market still has him down by 55-to-45, which is effectively the same thing before the two conventions.

ETA: Real Clear Politics has its average now as Obama/McCain 46.0/45.2 - but note that this is a running average over the last week. It will be interesting to see how this looks in another week, as well as how the prediction markets behave in the next few days.

My prediction: the markets will remain relatively stable around where they are now. McCain won't crack 45 on WTA by this time next week.

 

[MattusMaximus]

Okaaaay... Pollster.com has, in the most recent polls, the race as follows:

Obama 48.0%
McCain 43.3%

The most recent poll for them was conducted on 9-6-08 (yesterday), so this is just as current as all the others.

Perhaps Pollster.com is taking the under 30 crowd into account by making cellphone calls? Does anyone know if this is what they do?

Wow, polls make me nuts. Did I mention they suck?

 

[MattusMaximus]

Btw, for those of you who are wanting to learn more about prediction markets and how they beat polls, check out this article in the Wall Street Journal.