Palin speech pulls in $8 million

[MattusMaximus]

He'll be even happier when we add another 20 million tonight then!

And imagine how happy he will become when we can outspend him 5 to one between now and the election!!!

I heard that! And it is this money which will fuel Obama's massive campaign structure, voter registration drives, and GOTV efforts.

Even Tom DeLay admits the Democrats are way better organized and ready for the ground game.

 

[MattusMaximus]

The Republicans raised one million:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/09/04/after-palin-speech-obama-has-record-10-million-day/

Hmmm... Obama out-raised McCain by 10-to-1 on the Palin speech?! Message for McCain/Palin:

 

[not_so_new]

Did it actually raise more for Obama than McCain? I haven't seen the numbers from the McCain camp - which, now that I think about it, indicates to me that they don't want to release the numbers publicly because it would be embarrassing.

Think about it. If Obama raises $10M on the Palin speech and McCain raised $20M, then wouldn't the McCain camp brag about it?

I think them not bragging (or reporting it at all) says that they pulled in either the same amount or, sadly, less than Obama.

I agree... I thought I heard someplace else it was $8 million which would match the thread title.

The Republicans raised one million:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/09/04/after-palin-speech-obama-has-record-10-million-day/

I don't know... I thought I heard someplace else it was $8 million which would match the thread title.

 

[not_so_new]

Oh wait... I just realized what the thread title was all about. I thought it was $8 million for McCain / Palin.

Too funny.

Either way, I hear that Palin's speech brought in $8 million. I will see if I can dig that up tomorrow but David might be right with his CNN link.

 

[Wangler]

Hmmm... Obama out-raised McCain by 10-to-1 on the Palin speech?! Message for McCain/Palin:

[qimg]http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/imagehosting/thum_7747488553b0d8cb4.jpg[/qimg]

The money may be one issue, but..........

Everyone here says that the American people are not buying tickets on the McCain Train......

To bad the polls don't agree with you all; ABC shows BO and McCain in a dead heat (42% to 42%).

McCain has closed a gap of 8 points in the past week, between start of the DNC and start of RNC.

Mind you this is after the DNC and the Invesco Field love in.

 

[Wangler]

Does anyone know how the figure of $8 million was obtained?

Is McCain required to report this figure?

Is it a guesstimate?

Are either candidate hurting for money at this point?

 

[David Wong]

The money may be one issue, but..........

Everyone here says that the American people are not buying tickets on the McCain Train......

To bad the polls don't agree with you all; ABC shows BO and McCain in a dead heat (42% to 42%).

Of course the Gallup poll from the same span has Obama up by 7. Rasmussen has him up by 5. In fact... yes, it appears you chose the one single poll that shows a tie. All the rest show Obama in the lead.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110032/Gallup-Daily-Dent-Obama-Lead-Far.aspx

Nice cherry picking there. I've seen that technique before... Have you visited any of our global warming threads by chance?

 

[MattusMaximus]

The money may be one issue, but..........

Everyone here says that the American people are not buying tickets on the McCain Train......

To bad the polls don't agree with you all; ABC shows BO and McCain in a dead heat (42% to 42%).

McCain has closed a gap of 8 points in the past week, between start of the DNC and start of RNC.

Mind you this is after the DNC and the Invesco Field love in.

Yeah, and Gallup has Obama up by 7 points...

Obama 49%
McCain 42%

So all this proves is, as I've said numerous times on these forums, that most political polling is b.s. There is no consistency here, so we cannot gauge things accurately as to what is going on. Now if all the polls started to move in the same direction by statistically significant amounts, then that might mean something real. ETA: as has already been pointed out, it seems that most other polls all agree that Obama is ahead by statistically significant amounts. So this does seem to indicate that Obama is, in fact, ahead of McCain.

Interestingly enough, if you look at any of the major prediction markets, they are all consistent with each other. And they say, across the board, that the winner-take-all prediction is...

Obama 60%
McCain 40%

Which was, ironically, exactly the same values before the RNC got started. So this basically means the RNC had no positive effect for the GOP. Very bad for McCain.

Aside: You should note that the DNC did have a real positive effect in the prediction markets. Right before the DNC got underway, Obama was heading down in the markets - he got down to 55% (with McCain up to 45%) at the lowest point. By the end of the DNC, including both Clinton's and Obama's speeches and the display of party unity, the markets had stabilized back to the rough 60/40 split by the weekend.

Bottom Line: This news, coupled with the fundraising fiasco a la Palin's speech, spells trouble ahead for McCain.

 

[MattusMaximus]

Does anyone know how the figure of $8 million was obtained?

Is McCain required to report this figure?

Is it a guesstimate?

Are either candidate hurting for money at this point?

I don't know about hurting, but something tells me Obama is feeling at least 8 times the love that McCain is

 

[Wangler]

Of course the Gallup poll from the same span has Obama up by 7. Rasmussen has him up by 5. In fact... yes, it appears you chose the one single poll that shows a tie. All the rest show Obama in the lead.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110032/Gallup-Daily-Dent-Obama-Lead-Far.aspx

Nice cherry picking there. I've seen that technique before... Have you visited any of our global warming threads by chance?

Conceded, yours does show a lead for Obama, but I note the poll took place before Palin's speech.

Let's see how all the polls look tomorrow or Saturday...I predict dead heats, in apparent contradiction to the forums general opinion that the electorate is rejecting the McCain/Palin ticket en masse.

 

[MattusMaximus]

Conceded, yours does show a lead for Obama, but I note the poll took place before Palin's speech.

Let's see how all the polls look tomorrow or Saturday...I predict dead heats, in apparent contradiction to the forums general opinion that the electorate is rejecting the McCain/Palin ticket en masse.

You should note that prediction markets are real time, and they currently show no "bump" for McCain, though they certainly did so for Obama immediately after his speech. McCain's in trouble, big time.

 

[BenBurch]

You should note that prediction markets are real time, and they currently show no "bump" for McCain, though they certainly did so for Obama immediately after his speech. McCain's in trouble, big time.

A couple polls show a bump, and a couple show no bump.

The bump polls are of registered voters, and the no bump polls are of likely voters.

We're not late enough in the race for a switch to only likely voters to be appropriate though.

My analysis is that while Palin would not have hurt him had she come in without scandal, the odor of that many scandals she brought with her has entered the public awareness and may nearly negate the usual convention bounce.

We will know more by mid-day tomorrow when the overnight tracking polls come out.

 

[BenBurch]

You should note that prediction markets are real time, and they currently show no "bump" for McCain, though they certainly did so for Obama immediately after his speech. McCain's in trouble, big time.

You keep saying "markets." Other than intrade, what is there?

 

[MattusMaximus]

A couple polls show a bump, and a couple show no bump.

The bump polls are of registered voters, and the no bump polls are of likely voters.

We're not late enough in the race for a switch to only likely voters to be appropriate though. ...

Please note that I'm speaking about prediction markets, not polls. They're different.

 

[BenBurch]

Please note that I'm speaking about prediction markets, not polls. They're different.

Right, I am just seeing if there is some way to say he has gotten any sort of bump.

 

[MattusMaximus]

You keep saying "markets." Other than intrade, what is there?

Plenty. Here you go...

Intrade Markets
Iowa Electronic Markets
Rasmussen Reports
NewsFutures
CNN Political Market
Yahoo Political Dashboard

I think there are more, but these are the main ones I follow.

 

[MattusMaximus]

Right, I am just seeing if there is some way to say he has gotten any sort of bump.

Track any of the markets, and you should see any bump. Backtrack on the market graphs, and you can see the definite dip for Obama (pre-DNC) and bump for him as well (during and post-DNC). Obama's bump has stuck and held fast over the last week.

No bump so far for McCain; bad news for him.

 

[BenBurch]

Plenty. Here you go...

Intrade Markets
Iowa Electronic Markets
Rasmussen Reports
NewsFutures
CNN Political Market
Yahoo Political Dashboard

I think there are more, but these are the main ones I follow.

Thank you!!!

 

[BenBurch]

Indeed you are right. The several markets I looked at are all in a down trend now.

 

[Wangler]

You should note that prediction markets are real time, and they currently show no "bump" for McCain, though they certainly did so for Obama immediately after his speech. McCain's in trouble, big time.

We shall see, shant we? The debates are going to be memorable, and should be fun to watch. Do you think that the debates will affect the polls significantly?

Despite McCain and Palin being in trouble "big time", I predict a continued litany of focused threads and posts by you and others with the express intent to assassinate their positions (fair game, and go for it) and character (shame on y'all who participate).

I won't consider them down and out until this steaming pot of outlandish rhetoric cools down to a simmering bunch of gloating "I Told You So's"