Ohio and Texas prediction contest

[kosai]

Can McCain beat Clinton? You really think so?

I think she will lose to McCain quite easily for reasons mentioned by others here. If she gets the nod, it's going to piss off the Obama supporters. I am in that group, if they use super delegates to decide who the nomination is and not the voting I will not vote for Hillary and may give up on the party all together. I've heard a lot of Obama supporters say the same. I will go vote, but it will be for Nader.

Also, multiple news sources are asking the question in polls, you can track the result of that battle here:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...s/general_election_mccain_vs_clinton-224.html

 

[dudalb]

CNN calls Ohio for Hillary. The black magic worked!


[qimg]http://home.mindspring.com/~chitaper/Hillary_witch.jpg[/qimg]

Nah, it was the endorsement by The Joker that did it....

 

[dudalb]

Can McCain beat Clinton? You really think so?

Actually, most polls, show a statistical dead heat between McCain and both Obama and Clinton.
No matter who gets the nomination for the Dems,it is going to be close in November.
What the Dems have to remember is that a lot of voters who would NEVER vote for Bush again do not equate McCain with Bush.,and might vote for McCain.
And I freely admit I have no loyalty whatsoever to either party.

 

[SezMe]

Here is some good news for all of us from yesterday. A YEC was defeated as the replacement for the Texas school board which ensures that creationism will not be in the syllabus.

 

[kosai]

Here is some good news for all of us from yesterday. A YEC was defeated as the replacement for the Texas school board which ensures that creationism will not be in the syllabus.

Saw that and I agree, that's excellent news for everyone R, D or I.

 

[T.A.M.]

Can McCain beat Clinton? You really think so?

Polls indicate it, and if you think about what would rally the Republican base, Hillary is at THE TOP of the list. Combine that with her polarizing nature, and you have disaster IMO come November.

The funny thing (sad really) is that after all 4 contests last night, her winning three, she nets only 15 more delegates than Obama (not including the Texas Caucus which will likely go for Obama).

Unfortunately, his momentum has been stopped, and now the attack dogs have seven weeks to destroy Obama's reputation.

TAM

 

[delphi_ote]

Ugh... this is going to drag on until the end of April?!

 

[dudalb]

Ugh... this is going to drag on until the end of April?!

The way things are going, it it going to drag on until the end of August,friend.

 

[delphi_ote]

The way things are going, it it going to drag on until the end of August,friend.

Yea. Barak needs about 500 delegates to get the nomination. There are about 50 more delegates to assign from yesterday. A lot of those will break Obama's way (the Texas caucus votes have yet to be dished out.)

If we assume they roughly split the delegates through every upcoming primary, and that Barak gets half the remaining delegates from Yesterday, by my back of the envelope calculations, he's down a couple hundred delegates going into the convention.

I don't think those numbers are even remotely realistic, but things sure are close.

 

[kosai]

If we assume they roughly split the delegates through every upcoming primary, and that Barak gets half the remaining delegates from Yesterday, by my back of the envelope calculations, he's down a couple hundred delegates going into the convention.

Why use envelopes when these high tech toys are so fun:

http://www.slate.com/features/delegatecounter/

 

[delphi_ote]

Why use envelopes when these high tech toys are so fun:

http://www.slate.com/features/delegatecounter/

Great. Now I'm not going to get anything done today. *sigh*

 

[kosai]

Great. Now I'm not going to get anything done today. *sigh*

Ah, sorry... maybe I can help you out...

Even if you give Hillary 61% in every race from now til the end she still loses.

 

[Darth Rotor]

Here is some good news for all of us from yesterday. A YEC was defeated as the replacement for the Texas school board which ensures that creationism will not be in the syllabus.

And there was much rejoicing.

DR

 

[delphi_ote]

Ah, sorry... maybe I can help you out...

Even if you give Hillary 61% in every race from now til the end she still loses.

Their delegate counts are a little weird on that site, but you're right. Under most realistic scenarios, Obama doesn't clinch the nomination either. It's almost impossible for her to win, but also likely that he won't clinch the nomination (unless super-delegates backing Hillary decide enough is enough.)

 

[T.A.M.]

Brokaw said yesterday that a source inside the Obama campaign has said there are 50 superdelegates ready to break for him, but they are debating over when and how to announce them.

I suspect they will wait until the initial hillary party has died down, as the effect will be less while she is garnishing all the hype.

TAM

 

[delphi_ote]

Brokaw said yesterday that a source inside the Obama campaign has said there are 50 superdelegates ready to break for him, but they are debating over when and how to announce them.

I'm skeptical, but that would be huge if it happened. To put that number into perspective, Clinton didn't come close to narrowing Barak's lead by half that yesterday. This would make Obama's chances of clinching the nomination much more likely, it would make Clinton's chances all but hopeless, and it would establish a precedent for other superdelegates to jump ship.

If this actually happened, the race would be over. As happy as I would be, I suspect this is just boasting or outright propaganda from inside the Obama camp. But I would love to be wrong.

 

[SezMe]

I'm with delphi here. I can see no incentive for a lot of supers to announce for Obama now. Many of them are, after all, politicians who hold office and undergo the election process. Why risk coming out for what might be the eventual loser? Small upside, large downside.

 

[T.A.M.]

Brokaw did say this prior to last nights results, so things certainly could change, but lets see.

TAM

Edit:

Apparently he said it again on "Morning Joe" this morning as well...

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/03/04/brokaw-obama-has-50-supe_n_89789.html

Edit2:

Apparently 2 have already done so...

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/3/4/10402/50272/310/468529

Mary Long and Carol Fowler

TAM

 

[T.A.M.]

one source here, claims that an Obama spokesperson has said Brokaw is incorrect...

http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/archives/2008/03/its_wrong.html

I agree with both of you, probably propaganda, or more likely exaggeration. that, or they are pissed that Brokaw broke the story.

TAM

 

[dudalb]

I am a little surpised that so many Obama supporters on lIne seem to be on the verge of throwing in the towel.
For the Flying Spahgetti Monster's sake,he is still ahead in delegates,and still has lots of money. I would say he still has the advantage.
DId they really think Obama would just go from victory to victory? Did they really think he would never make a serious mistake that would lose him some votes? If so,they are being very,very,nieve.
Every campaign has it's up and downs.
Look,this could be a blessing in disguise. A lot of the euphoria will go out of the Obama campaign,and that is good. It will become more realistic, and people will realize he can Lose,both the nomination and in the General election. This is a chance to correct the mistakes, shore up his weak points and get ready for the long campaign.
Obama will have had to address the question of experience sooner or later. He would have had to show the general public he has enough compensating factors to make up for the lack of experience. He has not had to do that so far,and now he has to.That is good.
Or are some of the more euphoric Obama fans in a state of shock that he can actually screw up the way he did with the NAFTA incident? That is a fallible Human being and not a messiah? Welcome to reality,folks.
Or how much Obama support is ,as the saying goes, a mile wide but an inch deep?
Time will tell.