Ohio and Texas prediction contest

[delphi_ote]

Dean to Florida: Drop dead.

Problem with all this is that Bill Nelson is solidly in the Clinton camp.

 

[delphi_ote]

Until November,when the decision to basically disenfrachise Florida and Michigan will come back to haunt the Democrats,with Florida in particular.

You misunderstood my post. I was saying that Michigan and Florida paying for a new primary (as has been suggested by Dean,) even though they might overall go more in Clinton's direction, might help Obama clinch the nomination.

 

[delphi_ote]

Florida and Michigan will get there primaries, and given the momentum shift, and their demographics, they will fall to Hillary...

It will comeback to bite her in the General election though, mark my words.

If Nelson and Clinton get the Florida and Michigan delegates seated without a fair primary (or caucus) in both states, I've already decided that I won't vote for her in November. Say what you want about disenfranchising voters in those states, handing such a huge number of delegates to a candidate because of political manuverings disenfranchises every Democrat that voted in the primaries. I can't support a candidate willing to do this.

 

[T.A.M.]

Buck up, T.A.M. Obama is going to win the next three states which will renew some of the luster and make him competitive in Pennsylvania. The other contests will be close no matter who wins. Your candidate still stands in a good position...don't give up on him.

I am not giving up on him...heh, I am Canadian, so the effect it has on me is indirect at best. I am just disillusioned with the politics involved. I guess I thought this time, with this candidate, it might be different, but Hillary and the ****er that is Howard Wolfson have insured it will not be.

Fear trumps Hope...I would LOVE to be wrong on this one.

TAM

 

[dudalb]

I am not giving up on him...heh, I am Canadian, so the effect it has on me is indirect at best. I am just disillusioned with the politics involved. I guess I thought this time, with this candidate, it might be different, but Hillary and the ****er that is Howard Wolfson have insured it will not be.

Fear trumps Hope...I would LOVE to be wrong on this one.

TAM

The problem I have with your viewpoint is that Obama is somehow "different" I just can't see that.
He is promising the moon and stars if he is elected,and is dodging the issues and is not above saying one thing and then saying another,as the Nafta Flap shows. You can't get more "politics as usual" then that.
Anyway, Obama is going to have to get tougher in order to win. If he can't handle the compartively mild attack strategy of Hilary, he is going to get torn to pieces by the GOP in the General election.

 

[dudalb]

If Nelson and Clinton get the Florida and Michigan delegates seated without a fair primary (or caucus) in both states, I've already decided that I won't vote for her in November. Say what you want about disenfranchising voters in those states, handing such a huge number of delegates to a candidate because of political manuverings disenfranchises every Democrat that voted in the primaries. I can't support a candidate willing to do this.

I doubt that will happen.I have a feeling it will end up being a caucus situation.

 

[Jaggy Bunnet]

I don't think so. Everything I've read says the number needed to win is 2,024, which is half the total number of delegates including Florida and Michigan. I haven't seen anything citing a different number, or suggesting that 2,024 is the number only if Florida and Michigan are counted.

Might be interesting to see what the DNC's rulebook says. If it's ambiguous on the topic, then we'll need a lot of popcorn.

The BBC say that the 4049 total excludes Florida & Michigan:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7224970.stm

"As things stand, the Democratic convention will have 4,049 delegates in total and the Republican convention will have 2,380.

However, these figures would have been higher if the Democratic Party had not barred all delegates from Florida and Michigan, and the Republican Party had not disqualified half the delegates from these two states, and from New Hampshire, South Carolina and Wyoming."

And this link has a breakdown totalling 4,048 (reduced by one due to the death of a superdelegate) which shows the figures by state and has zeroes in for Florida and Michigan.

http://projects.washingtonpost.com/2008-presidential-candidates/delegates/d/

 

[T.A.M.]

The problem I have with your viewpoint is that Obama is somehow "different" I just can't see that.
He is promising the moon and stars if he is elected,and is dodging the issues and is not above saying one thing and then saying another,as the Nafta Flap shows. You can't get more "politics as usual" then that.
Anyway, Obama is going to have to get tougher in order to win. If he can't handle the compartively mild attack strategy of Hilary, he is going to get torn to pieces by the GOP in the General election.

I guess there comes a time when you have to say "I will not be the cynic any more". That time, for me, is with Obama...or at least was. Now I feel the creep of my cynic self coming back, as i watch what the Billary/Wolfson team attack.

TAM

 

[dudalb]

Cynicism in regard to politicians is wise.
Look, I never disliked Obama more then I dislike politicans on principal. I will probably end up voting for him in November if he gets the nomination. I just did not see him as the almost Messiah like figure that some of his supporters made him out to be.
And that he got caught in a piece of classic political chincanery with he saying one thing to the Candian Government and the other to voters in Ohio did not make you at least a little skeptical about whether Obama was the Man Who Would Save Us All?

 

[BPSCG]

I guess there comes a time when you have to say "I will not be the cynic any more". That time, for me, is with Obama...or at least was. Now I feel the creep of my cynic self coming back, as i watch what the Billary/Wolfson team attack.

TAM

But haven't you heard the message? "The enemy is cynicism!" Fight the cynicism, with the audacity of hope!

You are still young, Grasshopper, but with time, you will grow wise.

 

[BPSCG]

The BBC say that the 4049 total excludes Florida & Michigan:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7224970.stm

"As things stand, the Democratic convention will have 4,049 delegates in total and the Republican convention will have 2,380.

However, these figures would have been higher if the Democratic Party had not barred all delegates from Florida and Michigan, and the Republican Party had not disqualified half the delegates from these two states, and from New Hampshire, South Carolina and Wyoming."

And this link has a breakdown totalling 4,048 (reduced by one due to the death of a superdelegate) which shows the figures by state and has zeroes in for Florida and Michigan.

http://projects.washingtonpost.com/2008-presidential-candidates/delegates/d/

Okay, then this changes everything. That means that if all the delegates vote, someone will get 50% + 1, barring votes for favorite sons and votes for John Edwards (who has only "suspended" his campaign).

The Al Gore scenario fades.

Unless Gore has a sooper sekrit back room deal with Edwards to have Edwards hold on to his delegates...

I certainly hope so. I've bought a lot of stock in Orville Redenbacher, Inc. the last few days.

 

[Puppycow]

I guess there comes a time when you have to say "I will not be the cynic any more". That time, for me, is with Obama...or at least was. Now I feel the creep of my cynic self coming back, as i watch what the Billary/Wolfson team attack.

TAM

Skeptism, not cynicism, is the way my friend. We shouldn't have illusions or unrealistic expectations about Obama in the first place. He always has been a fallable human being. And the realities of politics are what they are. There's a balance between emotional investment and the need for a certain kind of clinical detachment. Too far to either side is not good. And be aware of your own confirmation bias.

 

[BPSCG]

Skeptism, not cynicism, is the way my friend. We shouldn't have illusions or unrealistic expectations about Obama in the first place. He always has been a fallable human being. And the realities of politics are what they are. There's a balance between emotional investment and the need for a certain kind of clinical detachment. Too far to either side is not good. And be aware of your own confirmation bias.

 

[delphi_ote]

Skeptism, not cynicism, is the way my friend. We shouldn't have illusions or unrealistic expectations about Obama in the first place. He always has been a fallable human being. And the realities of politics are what they are. There's a balance between emotional investment and the need for a certain kind of clinical detachment. Too far to either side is not good. And be aware of your own confirmation bias.

You do realize you've just done essentially what everyone comes down on Obama for, right? Here you are writing a lot of words that inspire your target audience without actually giving any practical plan to realize it. Nobody can disagree with what you've written up there, but nobody knows how to do anything real with it, either.

Don't get me wrong, it's good advice. I'm not disagreeing with you. My point is that sometimes the right thing to say to an audience can be inspiring and little more. Feeling inspired isn't a bad thing on its own.

 

[T.A.M.]

These are all interesting, and many valid, points/arguments/povs.

Here are a few points of my own:

1. regarding the NAFTAgate issue, Clinton is as guilty, if not more, than Obama...

At the end of an extended conversation, Mr. Brodie was asked about remarks aimed by the Democratic candidates at Ohio's anti-NAFTA voters that carried serious economic implications for Canada.

Since 75 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S., Mr. Obama and Ms. Clinton's musings about reopening the North American free-trade pact had caused some concern.

Mr. Brodie downplayed those concerns.

"Quite a few people heard it," said one source in the room.

"He said someone from (Hillary) Clinton's campaign is telling the embassy to take it with a grain of salt. . . That someone called us and told us not to worry."

Government officials did not deny the conversation took place.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080305.wharpleak0305/BNStory/National/home

2. My support, as a non-voting foreigner, for Obama is not a unique one. I would wage good money that world opinion of who would be the best leader amongst the candidates, to rebuild the image of America in the world, would land firmly in Obama's camp.

one example:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/serv...04.wvobama0304&ids=RTGAM.20080304.wvobama0304

3. I am not young, nor naive, and anyone who knows me well enough here, knows that. I am however, looking for a leader for our next door neighbours to the south that will inspire the American people to once again lead by example, rather than by force. To offer the world Carrots, with the occasional stick, rather than sticks with a few carrot peels. I think Obama is the best person for that job.

TAM

 

[T.A.M.]

Skeptism, not cynicism, is the way my friend. We shouldn't have illusions or unrealistic expectations about Obama in the first place. He always has been a fallable human being. And the realities of politics are what they are. There's a balance between emotional investment and the need for a certain kind of clinical detachment. Too far to either side is not good. And be aware of your own confirmation bias.

Good advice. Thank you. That said, one can always dream...HOPE!!

lol

TAM

 

[Puppycow]

You do realize you've just done essentially what everyone comes down on Obama for, right? Here you are writing a lot of words that inspire your target audience without actually giving any practical plan to realize it. Nobody can disagree with what you've written up there, but nobody knows how to do anything real with it, either.

Don't get me wrong, it's good advice. I'm not disagreeing with you. My point is that sometimes the right thing to say to an audience can be inspiring and little more. Feeling inspired isn't a bad thing on its own.

Yes, indeed. I think that in politics, as in products, the packaging is at least as important as the contents. Both are important. It is necessary to be somewhat inpiring and optimistic. But you also need some reasonable ideas. Obama right now probably needs to work a little more on the latter, and communicating the latter to voters and arguing for his ideas.

 

[T.A.M.]

Yes, indeed. I think that in politics, as in products, the packaging is at least as important as the contents. Both are important. It is necessary to be somewhat inpiring and optimistic. But you also need some reasonable ideas. Obama right now probably needs to work a little more on the latter, and communicating the latter to voters and arguing for his ideas.

I wonder if the work is needed in getting his ideas out there, rather than working on developing them. I think he has pushed the ideals, the "inspiration" so much (and with phenomenal results) that he just hasn't needed to get the ideas (in detail) out there...perhaps until now.

TAM

 

[SezMe]

This meme that Obama is light on details is a myth. Go to Hillary's site or Obama's site and you will see quite similar levels of policy detail on a wide range of issues. Now it might be true that he has not done a good enough job in getting to the nitty gritty. Or it might be simply once the charge is made, it has stuck. I predict this lack of details will be sold until November.

In any case, it is oversold. Look, once in office the Prez is going to have to compromise to get his legislative agenda passed. All those campaign details will be willows in the wind as the real down-and-dirty politics come into play.

First off, I don't think many votes are swayed by the nuances of policy details at campaign time. Maybe that is why the two Dems are so close because there is damn little to separate the two. Secondly, if someone is swayed by some policy detail, he is going to be sorely disappointed later on.

 

[Ateius]

I am however, looking for a leader for our next door neighbours to the south that will inspire the American people to once again lead by example, rather than by force. To offer the world Carrots, with the occasional stick, rather than sticks with a few carrot peels. I think Obama is the best person for that job.

TAM

Truth.

Even if he is disgracefully ignorant of foreign leaders.

The President of Canada?

*grumble...*