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Global warming

http://www.ncpa.org/pub/st/st279/st279.pdf

This is a link to a summary of Singer's theory of the 1,500 year climate cycle, excerpted from his book.

If you want to debunk something, here is something that you may click on with your one remaining arm - and read with your two eyes - as long as your head remains attached.

Debunk Singer's core theory, of the 1,500 year climate cycle.

Here is a bit of help.

How to sound dumb and debate a skeptic from Gristmill

Or go to Losers in the Hockey Stick Game at Realclimate.

But why not just read the actual science? It ain't gonna bite ya.
 
He conveniently ignores the message of the report, and cherry picks what he wants to hear. The summary makes it perfectly clear what the science has found, and it's not his cherry picking. I know what is 'reasoning' is..

Either you have not even read the report, or you are doing the cherry picking.

"Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere - Understanding and Reconciling Differences". You will find in bold in page 11 the following -

"A potentially serious inconsistency has been identified in the tropics. The favored explanation for this is residual error in the observations, but the issue is still open".


​
 
Wow, you are seriously lowering your standards. Any help is welcome?


Scott Church Direct
Welcome to Scott Church Direct, the information and commentary site of Seattle-based landscape photographer Scott Church. This site was created to raise awareness of environmental and social issues from a Christian perspective and provide a scientific, theological, and ethical alternative to fundamentalism.
 
Originally Posted by mhaze
http://www.ncpa.org/pub/st/st279/st279.pdf

This is a link to a summary of Singer's theory of the 1,500 year climate cycle, excerpted from his book.

If you want to debunk something, here is something that you may click on with your one remaining arm - and read with your two eyes - as long as your head remains attached.
​
Debunk Singer's core theory, of the 1,500 year climate cycle.​

Debunk what? A novel? Come on...

I've invited you to debunk or otherwise refute Singer's main hypthesis. Since it refutes AGW, if it is unrefuted, AGW falls. You've shrugged it off as a novel, which is not a refutation.

AGW just fell.
 
Rainfall has been average or below average for much of the state.

I still don't understand. The first chart I posted a link to shows that Victoria (I assume that is the state you mean) had above average rainfall over pretty much all of the state.
 
Or go to Losers in the Hockey Stick Game at Realclimate.

Sorry but realclimate *clearly* won that debate on a scientific front. The deniers may try to claim victory for political purposes but they really did get hammered thanks to their typical approach of avoiding peer review. The real telling thing is that even if you cede the entire argument and ignore Mann altogether, there are a dozen different reconstructions using different methods that show exactly the same results.

But why not just read the actual science? It ain't gonna bite ya.

This is an odd statment comming from someone who wants to believe the politically driven, non peer reviewed Wegman report rather then the peer review articles discussing the “hockey stick” .

I sense a trend emerging with your posts. Your all for reading the science, just not the stuff published in major peer reviewed journals like “Science” and “Nature”. The science that appears in energy company sponsored blogs is apparently perfectly acceptable however.

Given your choices over what to call science and what to ignore I am afraid that you will never convince me that your opinions are in any way based on the science. Rather it seems to me you are attempting to cherry pick sources that support a predetermined opinion and pass them off as science. Meanwhile, nearly half the permanent sea ice in the arctic is gone.
 
I've invited you to debunk or otherwise refute Singer's main hypthesis. Since it refutes AGW, if it is unrefuted, AGW falls. You've shrugged it off as a novel, which is not a refutation.

AGW just fell.

http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=S._Fred_Singer

I’d be very reluctant to trust the work on a former tobacco industry “consultant” like Fred Singer. While that doesn’t necessarily negate what he has to say, it’s certainly going overboard to demand people go out and read an entire non peer reviewed book he wrote.

IMO you are clearly attempting a derail by citing vague and volumes references from questionable sources that supposedly support your position in the hopes that sooner or later you will arrive at a point that can’t be immediately challenged.


[edit]Tobacco Industry Contractor
In 1994, Singer was Chief Reviewer of the report Science, economics, and environmental policy: a critical examination published by the Alexis de Tocqueville Institution (AdTI). This was all part of an attack on EPA regulation on environmental tobacco smoke funded by the Tobacco Institute. [6] At that time, Mr. Singer was a Senior Fellow with AdTI. [7]

"The report's principal reviewer, Dr Fred Singer, was involved with the International Center for a Scientific Ecology, a group that was considered important in Philip Morris' plans to create a group in Europe similar to The Advancement for Sound Science Coalition (TASSC), as discussed by Ong and Glantz. He was also on a tobacco industry list of people who could write op-ed pieces on "junk science," defending the industry's views.39" [8]

In 1995, as President of the Science and Environmental Policy Project (a think tank based in Fairfax, Virginia) S. Fred Singer was involved in launching a publicity campaign about "The Top 5 Environmental Myths of 1995," a list that included the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's conclusion that secondhand tobacco smoke is a human carcinogen. Shandwick, a public relations agency working for British American Tobacco, pitched the "Top 5 Myths" list idea to Singer to minimize the appearance of tobacco industry involvement in orchestrating criticism of the EPA. The "Top 5 Environmental Myths" list packaged EPA's secondhand smoke ruling with other topics like global warming and radon gas, to help minimize the appearance of tobacco industry involvement in the effort. According to a 1996 BAT memo describing the arrangement, Singer agreed to an "aggressive media interview schedule" organized by Shandwick to help publicize his criticism of EPA's conclusions.[9]
 
Meanwhile, nearly half the permanent sea ice in the arctic is gone.

Run for that ice!

Here is a repeat -

I've invited you to debunk or otherwise refute Singer's main hypthesis.

Ad hominem attacks cede victory to the opposite side.
 
I've invited you to debunk or otherwise refute Singer's main hypthesis. Since it refutes AGW, if it is unrefuted, AGW falls. You've shrugged it off as a novel, which is not a refutation.

AGW just fell.


No, it really didn't.

Good try though ;)
 
Or go to Losers in the Hockey Stick Game at Realclimate.
​
Sorry but realclimate *clearly* won that debate on a scientific front. The deniers may try to claim victory for political purposes

Losers links to RC's discussion of Singer.

That is for people who want quick anti-Singer talking points but who do not care to actually read the science or cannot comprehend it.

We are not discussing the Hockey Stick here.
 
While that doesn’t necessarily negate what he has to say, it’s certainly going overboard to demand people go out and read an entire non peer reviewed book he wrote.

The link was a 20 some page pdf of his arguments.

See? I am a reasonable person.

Well, sort of....
 
I sense a trend emerging with your posts. Your all for reading the science, just not the stuff published in major peer reviewed journals like “Science” and “Nature”. The science that appears in energy company sponsored blogs is apparently perfectly acceptable however.

Wrong. I'm just not buying articles online. You can buy them so that I can have them, though. And send copies my way, or point to links where they may be viewed.

The simple reason is that the abstract isn't good enough. You can't expect someone to agree to what they cannot read, review and study.

Right?
 
Many Americans have what some (most?) would consider and odd affection for British humor. Monty Python and the Holy Grail has become a cult classic here. At this point, your arguments remind me of the scene where Arthur wants to cross the bridge, but the Black Knight refuses passage. Who can forget this:

Just as in the US there's a geeks and Star Trek cliche, over here there's a geeks and Monty Python cliche.

If you've nothing to say direct to my post, let's assume I've wrapped it up. Climate science is not based on statistics, it draws on the wider world of science to explain observations of a particular physical system - a very thin fluid skin on the surface of a planet. It would be an esoteric study if we didn't happen to live in one of those thin skins.


The problem is, there was no such thing as the "hockey stick" prior to the IPCC 2001 report (actually MBH98/99).

My bad about the "decades". The gnawing just seems to have gone on for ever.

Up until then, IPCC used the hundreds of previous studies and historical evidence for MWP, using the correct temperature record.

There's a correct temperature record? You're not referring to the Eurocentric schematic curve, are you? As to the historical record, I assume you are referring to the Eurocentric experience.

The statistically challenged and systematically erroneous Mann hockey stick is nowhere to be found in 2007, yet like the Black Knight, IPCC refuses to formerly admit defeat.

Isn't it time to start gnawing on the new Hockey Stick, then? Mann et al is so nineties, after all. A lot of work's been done since then, and of course there's about ten years of extra data to include.

Since you have no limbs left, I think it unfair to lop off your proverbial head. Have at it, however don't expect a response to yet another convoluted nonsensical speech.

I'm not going to talk down to you unless that's what you explicitly want. Probably not even then.

You went looking for back-up to the idea that climate science is mostly statistics, found a definition of climate as statistical, and leapt on it as if "climate" and "climate science" are the same thing. If you curbed your eagerness and put some more time into considering what a source really says you'd ... perhaps stop saying anything.

The background to this exchange is the attempt to divorce climate science from science in general and then destroy it in detail. It's worked with you, obviously, and you're hardly alone. Rather than be a real world problem it becomes an argument about the numbers and their interpretation. Much like politics, really. Which is perhaps why people who gnaw on the statistics tend to bring politics into the issue so much (you'll have noticed that yourself, I'm sure).
 
I still don't understand. The first chart I posted a link to shows that Victoria (I assume that is the state you mean) had above average rainfall over pretty much all of the state.

That's right, average rainfall is not enough rain to end a drought. That's what living in a country that is mostly desert means. We depend on above average rain to fill the water storage to last till the next above average year. They are getting rarer.
 
I'll just sit back and wait for him to actually research this idea. I won't be holding my breath.

Actually, this "more evaporation so more clouds and so a negative feeback" hypothesis/hope has been modelled in the big bad analogue one and has yet to kick in. It remains as much a "might" as it was twenty years ago; "hasn't" seems more appropriate given the ocean warming that's taken place.

The physics of the hypothesis is bad to start with. More evaporation doesn't lead to more cloud because the condensed droplets in cloud are as subject to evaporation as any other body of water. And all over. Not just at the top. Condensation nuclei are way above saturation point, so there won't be any more cloud. There might be a more rapid cycling, though, leading to heavier downpours.

Such arguments, like Singer, are rooted in the past, old Before Warming arguments. Back in the "it won't happen" days. We're well into the During Warming days now, of course.

At least Lindzen seems to have dropped his ludicrous Iris Theory. He's been rowing back for years now. Singer, on the other hand, has definitely lost the plot.
 
Either you have not even read the report, or you are doing the cherry picking.

"Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere - Understanding and Reconciling Differences". You will find in bold in page 11 the following -
"A potentially serious inconsistency has been identified in the tropics. The favored explanation for this is residual error in the observations, but the issue is still open".


​

Singer is making claims based on data that is stated to be questionable, and when you read how it is derived, needs to be verified before it can be used.
 
Ice cores can tell us interesting stories.

Hey, this Zen thing can get old pretty damn' quick. Don't milk it, is my advice.

Something ice-cores can't tell us is what happens when we do what we're doing and have done for a while now. Burning fossil-fuel on an industrial scale and raising atmospheric CO2-load to 380ppm - an increase of about a third on pre-industrial levels - while acidifying the oceans at the same time. There's no example back there to take comfort in. This is a unique situation. There's no refuge in the past.
 

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