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Global warming

Singer refers to the disprepancy between predicted temperatures in the troposphere and the measured temperatures as proof that the warming is not anthropogenic.

The fact that the observed and predicted patterns of warming don’t match indicates that the man-made greenhouse contribution to current temperature change is insignificant. This fact emerges from data and graphs collected in the Climate Change Science Program Report 1.1, published by the federal government in April 2006 (see www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap1-1/finalreport/default.htm). It is remarkable and puzzling that few have noticed this disparity between observed and predicted patterns of warming and drawn the obvious scientific conclusion.



From the report.

Previously reported discrepancies between the amount of warming near the surface and higher in the atmosphere have been used to challenge the reliability of climate models and the reality of humaninduced global warming. Specifically, surface data showed substantial global-average warming, while early versions of satellite and radiosonde data showed little or no warming above the surface. This significant discrepancy no longer exists because errors in the satellite and radiosonde data have been identified and corrected. New data sets have also been developed that do not show such discrepancies.
Did Singer even read this document? I'm failing to see the 'well reasoned' part. Did I miss something?
 
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Singer states

What explains why greenhouse computer models predict temperature trends that are so much larger than those observed? The answer lies in the proper evaluation of feedback within the models. Remember that in addition to carbon dioxide, the real atmosphere contains water vapor, the most powerful greenhouse gas. Every one of the climate models calculates a significant positive feedback from water vapor—i.e., a feedback that amplifies the warming effect of the CO2 increase by an average factor of two or three. But it is quite possible that the water vapor feedback is negative rather than positive and thereby reduces the effect of increased CO2.

There are several ways this might occur. For example, when increased CO2 produces a warming of the ocean, a higher rate of evaporation might lead to more humidity and cloudiness (provided the atmosphere contains a sufficient number of cloud condensation nuclei). These low clouds reflect incoming solar radiation back into space and thereby cool the earth. Climate researchers have discovered other possible feedbacks and are busy evaluating which ones enhance and which diminish the effect of increasing CO2.

That is, he has no evidence that this is true.
 
He makes an interesting contradiction in the space of just a few paragraphs.

What about the fact that carbon dioxide levels are increasing at the same time temperatures are rising? That’s an interesting correlation; but as every scientist knows, correlation is not causation.



A paper published in Nature in 2001 describes the Oxygen-18 data (reflecting temperature) from a stalagmite in a cave in Oman, covering a period of over 3,000 years. It also shows corresponding Carbon-14 data, which are directly related to the intensity of cosmic rays striking the earth’s atmosphere. One sees there a remarkably detailed correlation, almost on a year-by-year basis. While such research cannot establish the detailed mechanism of climate change, the causal connection is quite clear: Since the stalagmite temperature cannot affect the sun, it is the sun that affects climate.




Once again, am I missing something?
 
I'm not English native speaker, but "this might occur. For example, when increased CO2 produces a warming of the ocean, a higher rate of evaporation might lead to more humidity and cloudiness (provided the atmosphere contains a sufficient number of cloud condensation nuclei)" means to me that he is propossing basis for new models, not stating baseless claims.
And that sound quite reasonable.


Singer states



That is, he has no evidence that this is true.
 
You are being dishonest.
The date of the "correction" to the final report (I hope that "correction" has more "corrections" than cherry picking the data to make it fit the models, as Nasa usually do) is May 2 2006 (look at the date ). Singer was talking about the version available when he made his speech,April 2006.

Singer refers to the disprepancy between predicted temperatures in the troposphere and the measured temperatures as proof that the warming is not anthropogenic.



From the report.

Did Singer even read this document? I'm failing to see the 'well reasoned' part. Did I miss something?
 
You missed this "Since the stalagmite temperature cannot affect the sun, it is the sun that affects climate." and the will to examinate the evidence instead of simply tossing this example as irrelevant.
He makes an interesting contradiction in the space of just a few paragraphs.


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Once again, am I missing something?
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You are being dishonest.
The date of the "correction" to the final report (I hope that "correction" has more "corrections" than cherry picking the data to make it fit the models, as Nasa usually do) is May 2 2006 (look at the date ). Singer was talking about the version available when he made his speech,April 2006.

No

The following is adapted from a lecture delivered on the Hillsdale College campus on June 30, 2007, during a seminar entitled “Economics and the Environment,” sponsored by the Charles R. and Kathleen K. Hoogland Center for Teacher Excellence.



He made the speech this year, and the Web Page was put up August this year.

So I guess we drop that point from his well reasoned article.
 
I'm not English native speaker, but "this might occur. For example, when increased CO2 produces a warming of the ocean, a higher rate of evaporation might lead to more humidity and cloudiness (provided the atmosphere contains a sufficient number of cloud condensation nuclei)" means to me that he is propossing basis for new models, not stating baseless claims.
And that sound quite reasonable.

I'll just sit back and wait for him to actually research this idea. I won't be holding my breath.
 
You missed this "Since the stalagmite temperature cannot affect the sun, it is the sun that affects climate." and the will to examinate the evidence instead of simply tossing this example as irrelevant.

I'm just pointing out a discrepancy in his reasoning. He acknowledges CO2 is a greenhouse gas, but does nothing to examine it as a climate driver, instead running down every rabbit hole he can find that isn't CO2.

Of course the sun is the ultimate driver of climate. When it goes out, no amount of CO2 is going to warm the earth. If it goes red giant, it will eat the earth. That's not the point. The point is, what is driving climate now? We have a change in the global temperature, but no change in the sun.
 
You will note that this has been a rational discussion. We asked the important question of whether there is appreciable man-made warming today. We presented evidence that indicates there is not, thereby suggesting that attempts by governments to control greenhouse-gas emissions are pointless and unwise.

I must have missed that part.
 
What about the fact that carbon dioxide levels are increasing at the same time temperatures are rising? That’s an interesting correlation; but as every scientist knows, correlation is not causation. During much of the last century the climate was cooling while CO2 levels were rising. And we should note that the climate has not warmed in the past eight years, even though greenhouse gas levels have increased rapidly.

Two errors in the last two sentences.

the world was not cooling for much of the last century

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/new_Fig.A2_lrg.gif

the climate has warmed in the last 8 years.

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Library/GlobalWarmingUpdate/

What's more, he claims that temperature increases on the surface are not matched by high altitude measurements, but that is not what the executive summary of the finding he quoted in his report.

http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap1-1/finalreport/default.htm

I can't post the link to the executive summary because it is a pdf, sorry.

It is remarkable and puzzling that few have noticed this disparity between observed and predicted patterns of warming and drawn the obvious scientific conclusion.

Yes indeed.
 
Hey, who needs schneibster,

AUP and I will debunk anything you guys come up with.

"sound of pump action shotgun chambering another round"
 
Try telling Australians warming will be beneficial. Once again, the rains have failed. We already have less rainfall this year, when La Nina was supposed to bring us extra rain, than last year, which was the end of an El Nino.

I thought there hsd been rain aplenty (albeit a lot more is needed to keep replenishing stores). I went to the Bureau of Meteorology to check and found this:

Rainfall from Feb-July this year compared with historical averages. Doesn't look like it has failed:

ftp://ftp.bom.gov.au/anon/home/ncc/www/rainfall/anomaly/6month/colour/latest.gif

Rainfall deficiency over the same period (I could only find two seperate maps to cover the year to date as best I could:

ftp://ftp.bom.gov.au/anon/home/ncc/www/drought/3month/colour/history/nat/2007020120070430.gif

ftp://ftp.bom.gov.au/anon/home/ncc/www/drought/3month/colour/history/nat/2007050120070731.gif

Where did you get you information on recent rainfall problems?
 
Woops, had been listening to my wife read out this story, and misunderstood it. Rainfall has been average or below average for much of the state. That is, not what we need to get out of a drought situation.

http://www.theage.com.au/news/natio...-to-dust/2007/08/25/1187462590525.html?page=2

MELBOURNE'S water storages are now 151 billion litres — or almost 10 per cent below where they were at the end of last winter, and householders should prepare for even tougher restrictions this summer.
With no significant rain predicted across the metropolitan area in the final week of winter, the early promise of winter rains significantly boosting Melbourne's water storages have been dashed.
The National Climate Centre warned earlier this year that Victoria would need two years of above-average rainfall to break the drought, but, with the exception of Gippsland, most of the state was average or below by the last week of winter.
There is also a less than 50 per cent chance most of the state will receive average spring rains, according to the climate centre's long-term forecasts.
"The outlook is on the pessimistic side," centre spokesman Grant Beard said.
"The drought has not ended by any stretch. We have been saying from early on that we would need a couple of years of above average rain (to break the drought)."
Hopes raised earlier this year that a La Nina weather phenomenon — associated with wetter weather — was developing over the Pacific Ocean, have also been downgraded.

There has been significant flooding around Australia, but the SE Queensland has a similar problem. Extreme flooding all around it, but only small falls in catchment areas. Melbourne's water storage has had a slight blip since last year, but is still about 8% less than it was at the same time last year.

Farmers are going to make a fortune on wheat crops this year, if it rains again....
 
So I guess we drop that point from his well reasoned article.

In your leap to "debunk" the article and indicate that Singer had not read the source document that largely reconciled troposphere and surface measurements, you left off the first sentence of Singer's comments, in which he restricts his comments to the tropics. You have then proceeded to take the general conclusion of the report as evidence that Singer is wrong, instead of the specific conclusions or lack of in the report regarding the tropics.

I assume this is an honest error on your part. Quoting from Singer, the first sentence is the one you left out -
For instance, theoretically, greenhouse warming in the tropics should register at increasingly high rates as one moves from the surface of the earth up into the atmosphere, peaking at about six miles above the earth’s surface. At that point, the level should be greater than at the surface by about a factor of three and quite pronounced, according to all the computer models. In reality, however, there is no increase at all. In fact, the data from balloon-borne radiosondes show the very opposite: a slight decrease in warming over the equator.

The fact that the observed and predicted patterns of warming don’t match indicates that the man-made greenhouse contribution to current temperature change is insignificant.

​
Regarding Singer's speculation about the predictions from the models showing too much warming, you take exception with his suggestions as to possible causes for that. I don't get it. Surely everyone would want to reconcile the models with reality. What is wrong with making suggestions as to the corrections based on real world evidence?

Singer, in these two comments, (if I understand them right, and if the reporter who wrote this article got them right) indicates that he would like an evidence based calibration of the models and theory. Sounds pretty basic, but you argue against that?

Further, Singer has recently published a book based on ice core data that indicates a natural 1500 year cycle of warming. The stalagmite data is in reference to that.

Bob, since we know that the planet was coming out of a little ice age in the last century, how can you assert that Singer's comment that the planet was cooling for much of the last century to be incorrect (your link goes nowhere). As for Singer's saying the last 8 years showed no significant warming, on this very thread we have seen that opinion and its opposite both displayed, with supporting charts.

So Singer has raised a question worth looking into regarding an anomaly in the tropics troposphere temperature and he as made some reasonable comments as to why models don't match evidence. He has studied stalagmite and ice core data and written a book asserting that we have a 1,500 natural cycle of temperature, and asserts that temperatures today are a result of that.

I believe that covers the issues raised by AUP and Bob. Note the big picture from Singer's concluding paragraphs -

The nations of the world face many difficult problems. Many have societal problems like poverty, disease, lack of sanitation, and shortage of clean water. There are grave security problems arising from global terrorism and the proliferation of nuclear weapons. Any of these problems are vastly more important than the imaginary problem of man-made global warming. It is a great shame that so many of our resources are being diverted from real problems to this non-problem.
​

Finally,

"sound of pump action shotgun chambering another round"
The sword moves faster than an opponent's reaction time; but in Texas we prefer chain saws.
​
That arm holding the shotgun, did it used to be part of you?
​
 
In your leap to "debunk" the article and indicate that Singer had not read the source document that largely reconciled troposphere and surface measurements, you left off the first sentence of Singer's comments...

Finally,

"sound of pump action shotgun chambering another round"
The sword moves faster than an opponent's reaction time; but in Texas we prefer chain saws.
​
That arm holding the shotgun, did it used to be part of you?
​

http://www.ncpa.org/pub/st/st279/st279.pdf

This is a link to a summary of Singer's theory of the 1,500 year climate cycle, excerpted from his book.

If you want to debunk something, here is something that you may click on with your one remaining arm - and read with your two eyes - as long as your head remains attached.

Debunk Singer's core theory, of the 1,500 year climate cycle.
 
In your leap to "debunk" the article and indicate that Singer had not read the source document that largely reconciled troposphere and surface measurements, you left off the first sentence of Singer's comments, in which he restricts his comments to the tropics. You have then proceeded to take the general conclusion of the report as evidence that Singer is wrong, instead of the specific conclusions or lack of in the report regarding the tropics.

I assume this is an honest error on your part. Quoting from Singer, the first sentence is the one you left out -
For instance, theoretically, greenhouse warming in the tropics should register at increasingly high rates as one moves from the surface of the earth up into the atmosphere, peaking at about six miles above the earth’s surface. At that point, the level should be greater than at the surface by about a factor of three and quite pronounced, according to all the computer models. In reality, however, there is no increase at all. In fact, the data from balloon-borne radiosondes show the very opposite: a slight decrease in warming over the equator.

The fact that the observed and predicted patterns of warming don’t match indicates that the man-made greenhouse contribution to current temperature change is insignificant.

​
Regarding Singer's speculation about the predictions from the models showing too much warming, you take exception with his suggestions as to possible causes for that. I don't get it. Surely everyone would want to reconcile the models with reality. What is wrong with making suggestions as to the corrections based on real world evidence?

Singer, in these two comments, (if I understand them right, and if the reporter who wrote this article got them right) indicates that he would like an evidence based calibration of the models and theory. Sounds pretty basic, but you argue against that?

Further, Singer has recently published a book based on ice core data that indicates a natural 1500 year cycle of warming. The stalagmite data is in reference to that.

Bob, since we know that the planet was coming out of a little ice age in the last century, how can you assert that Singer's comment that the planet was cooling for much of the last century to be incorrect (your link goes nowhere). As for Singer's saying the last 8 years showed no significant warming, on this very thread we have seen that opinion and its opposite both displayed, with supporting charts.

So Singer has raised a question worth looking into regarding an anomaly in the tropics troposphere temperature and he as made some reasonable comments as to why models don't match evidence. He has studied stalagmite and ice core data and written a book asserting that we have a 1,500 natural cycle of temperature, and asserts that temperatures today are a result of that.

I believe that covers the issues raised by AUP and Bob. Note the big picture from Singer's concluding paragraphs -
The nations of the world face many difficult problems. Many have societal problems like poverty, disease, lack of sanitation, and shortage of clean water. There are grave security problems arising from global terrorism and the proliferation of nuclear weapons. Any of these problems are vastly more important than the imaginary problem of man-made global warming. It is a great shame that so many of our resources are being diverted from real problems to this non-problem.
​
Finally,

"sound of pump action shotgun chambering another round"
The sword moves faster than an opponent's reaction time; but in Texas we prefer chain saws.
​
That arm holding the shotgun, did it used to be part of you?
​

He conveniently ignores the message of the report, and cherry picks what he wants to hear. The summary makes it perfectly clear what the science has found, and it's not his cherry picking. I know what is 'reasoning' is.

Singer, as is usual for this crowd, publishes a book. He deliberately avoids following the scientific process, while criticising the findings of those following the scientific process.
http://mustelid.blogspot.com/2005/07/more-satellite-stuff-including.html
But in seeking to understand recent warming, we also have to consider the natural factors that have regularly warmed the climate prior to the industrial revolution and, indeed, prior to any human presence on the earth. After all, the geological record shows a persistent 1,500-year cycle of warming and cooling extending back at least one million years.
That's it for his evaluation of the scientific evidence. CO2 is a greenhouse gas, but we also have to look at the natural cycles. In other words, he's off down every rabbit burrow but the one he wants to avoid, CO2. Nowhere in his speech does consider the evidence for CO2 beyond acknowledging it is a greenhouse gas.

Where does Singer get his figures from? None other than his friend Christy.

The problem is, what's of interest to everyone is the lower troposphere (e.g. - 1000-800 hPa roughly) and this isn't directly measured by MSU's (it needs to be remembered that these devices, which have been in service since the 70's, were not designed with global warming data gathering in mind). About 15 years ago Spencer and Christy discovered that the side-looking and straight-down views of the MSU sensors across each of its sweeps could be factored and combined in a way that would give a temperature for the lower part of the troposphere. Because it is derived from the MSU Channel 2 data by formula, this was referred to as a "synthetic" channel and designated "2LT". With the latest versions, UAH has begun designating this as "TLT".

So TLT is UAH's lower troposphere temperature product that is derived from the actual MSU Channel 2 measurements. What they designate as "TMT" is their uncorrected Channel 2 product that gives the "middle" troposphere.

The contention over all this due partly to the fact that this TLT derivation process applied to side looking sensor views has a fair amount of sampling noise. The RSS and Prabhakara teams avoided this by simply sticking with the middle troposphere and uncorrected downward looking views. The Fu et al. method applied to Channel 2 measurements corrects these to yield something very similar to the band TLT represents and would provide a more direct TLT comparison. So in summary,
Quick, where is McIntyre. Tell him to start sharpening his pencils. Get the blogosphere out and tell them to look at those satellite temperature records, for they aren't records at all, but derived figures that are a little contentious.
http://www.scottchurchdirect.com/global-warming-troposphere.aspx?D=120&Pg=6
In light of the previous discussions, we can summarize the current state of knowledge regarding surface and tropospheric temperature trends and their relationship to anthropogenic greenhouse gases as follows;
  • The global surface temperature trend is well characterized by a wide range of in situ and proxy data apart from the tropospheric record (NRC, 2000; IPCC, 2001). State-of-the-art AOGCM’s can comfortably reproduce this trend, but also predict a similar long-term trend for the upper atmosphere. The apparent disagreement between the surface and upper air records hinges on these AOGCM predictions, and the belief that the two should be well coupled (NRC, 2000; IPCC, 2001). Over the longer period for which upper air data is available (1958 to the present), the two are in excellent agreement as expected. But short-term trends have shown much variation indicating that the troposphere and surface interact in more complex ways than previously thought. There is evidence that for certain regions of the globe (particularly the tropics), the surface and troposphere may well be decoupled to some extent so that short-term differences in trend are to be expected (Trenberth and Stepaniak, 2003). Because of this, the last 25 years are highly unlikely to be representative of long-term trends in the surface-troposphere temperature differences (NRC, 2000). Because of this, short-term upper air trends cannot be considered to be an indicator of surface global warming or an anthropogenic global warming fingerprint.
  • The disagreement between the tropospheric trends of the RSS and UAH teams is likely related to how each team handled the merging of intersatellite datasets and the derivation of hot target factors—particularly the NOAA-9 target factor and the shorter overlaps (e.g. NOAA-9/NOAA-10). The UAH derived value for the NOAA-9 target factor appears to be an outlier compared not only with the RSS value, but with all other RSS and UAH target factors. This anomalous factor appears to be related to UAH’s choice of a “backbone” method of merging that neglects shorter overlaps. The RSS analysis which uses all overlaps appears to result in a set of target factors and trend residuals for the merged time series, resulting in less trend error and a more consistent set of target factors. The difference between these two methods accounts for at least 65 percent of the difference between the trends of each team (Mears et al., 2003; Christy et al., 2003; Santer et al., 2003).
  • Though many uncertainties still remain, the best current estimates of troposphere temperature trends for the 850-300 hPa approach the RSS team value of 0.10 deg. C/decade uncorrected for spurious stratospheric cooling, and corrected trends approach 0.18 deg. K/decade (Mears et al., 2003; Fu et al., 2004).
UAH MSU2LT and MSUTLT products are more strongly influenced by surface radiation emissions than the MSU Channel 2 products of all teams. As such, they will be much more strongly influenced by annual and inter-annual Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice and melt pool areas, particularly the latter. These impart a distinct cooling trend to high southern latitudes (above 60 deg. S) and as such are likely to contribute to the lower trends observed by these products in the southern oceans.
Vinnikov and Grody have independently shown tropospheric warming rates that agree with expectations, but have not been corrected for differences between land and ocean diurnal cycles or instrument body effect. If corrected for these effects, their trends appear to be more likely to approach those of the RSS team rather than the UAH team (Vinnikov and Grody, 2004).
Radiosonde analyses are in reasonable agreement with both RSS and UAH trends for most regions where the three overlap. But the noise inherent in these datasets is large enough that they cannot be reliably used to discriminate between RSS and UAH products. In regions where the RSS and UAH products diverge (e.g. the tropical Pacific and northern Africa) radiosonde coverage is too sparse and poorly characterized to be useful. This situation has not changed appreciably in the 4 years since the National Research Council released their year 2000 report on satellite derived troposphere temperatures and global change.
Tropospheric trends corrected for a spurious stratospheric cooling signal are within the range of what can be comfortably reproduced by the best extant general circulation models with the appropriate natural and anthropogenic forcings (Fu et al., 4004; 2004b; Fu and Johanson, 2004). These models not only capture the signal of the observed troposphere warming, they also capture natural climate variations related to ENSO, PDO, and volcanic eruptions such as those of Mt. Pinatubo and El Chicon. The remaining discrepancies between models and observation can be explained by various mechanisms of poleward energy transport in the tropics and extra-tropics that decouple the troposphere from the surface (Trenberth and Stepaniak, 2003a,b; Santer et al., 2003).
Many issues still remain regarding troposphere and surface temperature trends and their relationship to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and land use activities. More work needs to be done to improve the data quality, particularly that from radiosondes. The ongoing development of the GUAN and RATPAC radiosonde products are a very positive step in this direction as is the ongoing work of the UAH and RSS teams to better characterize and expand their own datasets. But the greatest mysteries surrounding the apparent disagreement between surface and troposphere temperature trends during the last 25 years have largely been resolved. There is no longer any valid reason to dispute global warming at the earth’s surface based on tropospheric temperature trends.
So Singer is well reasoned, but light on the actual complexity of on which he bases his well reasoned conclusions, though you would never think that from his essay. First he cherry picks the tropics, then it turns out the data for the tropics is problematic for several reasons. Singer and Christy never actually say that, though.

I'll sit and wait for McIntyre to explore the validity of the data. I won't be holding my breath, though.
 

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