Anyone heard about this dude? (pavelprorok on youtube)

[GzuzKryzt]

I have a question.. is that would be good enough claim to..
Perform test with Zener cards, 25 in deck 5 different symbols every simbole assigned to a color on the card.. so its 25 Zener cards with 5 different symbols and colors. lets say.. I am wearing the mask that cover my eyes and ear plugs to eliminate sounds..and destruction. The person (any one) shuffle the cards and give them 1 by one to a friend of mine who looking at the card and try to "transmit" it to me.. so i am naming the card that is his hand. one by one.. we siting on 1 table opposite each other.. there will be no any physical contact like holding hands or something.. as i said..ill be with covered eyes and using ear plugs.. How much would it be self evident and how many times would be enough to perform it??

p.s.
in my posts i explained why i need a friend of my for the test..

Allow me again to let you know that typing in bold is considered yelling at others.

If you want to abstain from paragraphs, normal punctuation and color: That's your call.

 

[pavel_do]

thank you

done!

 

[pavel_do]

Ok.. sorry, No shouting.. and ill try to watch paragraphs..

 

[GimmePepsi]

I am wearing the mask that cover my eyes and ear plugs to eliminate sounds..and destruction. The person (any one) shuffle the cards and give them 1 by one to a friend of mine who looking at the card and try to "transmit" it to me.. so i am naming the card that is his hand. one by one..

How will you know when it's time to guess?

 

[The_Animus]

You could have to so normal level sounds can't be heard. But even with earplugs a really loud bell or buzzer should still be able to be heard. Just use a bell or buzzer to indicate a choice can be made.

Though if he is getting psychic images from the friend there shouldn't be a need to externally know when to choose. He should know simply because he is receiving an image.

 

[ChristineR]

I have been asked to help crunch some numbers, and am a bit confused. Most Zener cards that I have seen do have colored symbols. They still have only five symbols, its just that each symbol has its own color.

Is the deck to be reshuffled each time? Is pavel allowed to see the card after each trial?

The main problem I see with this test is that there are many ways to signal a person in the same room as to what card you are looking at. The loud bell or buzzer can itself be used as a signal in many ways. A blindfold and earplugs are not going to cut it. I'm certain Mr. Randi and a friend could get at least 24 out of 25 under those circumstances.

Let's ignore that for a moment and say we've found a way to keep pavel's friend from signaling him through his blindfold and earplugs.

Assuming that there are 25 cards with five symbols and that pavel is not shown the results until after the test is over the chance of getting a hit on each card is 1 in 5 throughout the test. Keep in mind that if pavel is shown the cards as the test proceeds he should be able to get the last card right 100% of the time, the next to the last card right at least 50% of the time, etc. But if he is never shown the cards, we might as well be shuffling after every step.

I found a link that does a better job of showing the formula than I can type in in here, plus it has a nifty calculator.

http://faculty.vassar.edu/lowry/ch5apx.html

In their notation, there are N = 25 opportunities, pavel claims he can get k = 12 occurrences, p is 1/5 and q is 4/5. The chance of getting 12 or more of 25 is 0.0015400514916651398, a bit high for the MDC. The chance of getting 13 or more is 0.00036904803455439783.

If you have 80 symbols and run N = 10 opportunities the chances of getting 3 or more right is 0.0002194476408110546. In general it's easier to to get a deck of 80 symbol cards and run fewer trials because so many precautions need to be set up for each trial.

 

[pavel_do]

guy i will reply a bit later for all ur questions.. but for now 1 thing..u talking about bell sound... DO U THINK RANDI WILL ALLOW ANY BELLS TO BE OR ANY SOUNDS..??
i would need complete silence my self, i am getting images.. but i need as less destruction as it possible in the same time as its an important process..
be back later.. have a nice time everybody.

 

[Cuddles]

Since this seems to be a simple case of telepathy, a similar protocol to the one used in the Achau Nguyen test would be easiest.

http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?t=28936

pavel_do, have a read though that thread and see what you think of the test.

 

[GzuzKryzt]

Since this seems to be a simple case of telepathy, a similar protocol to the one used in the Achau Nguyen test would be easiest.

http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?t=28936

pavel_do, have a read though that thread and see what you think of the test.

Pavel_do, if you don't want to bother with the rather long thread, here's the post with the protocol.

Cuddles' suggestion to read the entire thread is not that bad though, since it gives you an impression of how a sincere applicant proceeds to a preliminary test of the JREF Challenge.

 

[pavel_do]

good mornign

hi everybody.
How will i know that its time to guess..well it take me about 10 min to concentrate..cover my eyes and "look in to the darkness" in silence..
that they will start to pull cards.. and i guess some one can tell me in some way..NEXT... as eve thou i am getting images as THE_ANIMUS said.. but next image can be same as previous..so ill think that we still on the same card..

Well as chtistiner sais still there is allot of ways to show me "signs" in some way of signals.. but as i said before do you think JREF will allow it..? regarding the last card..as sort of i can count how many of.. Ill tell you.. i never count cards that i gues and ecven if for example all the stars are out..i still can call a star..cause ill say what i see..Ill tell you if you will be concentrating on counting and assuming how many card are off.. how many you guess etc..it will lead you to nowhere.. you should say what you see But not what you think .. any way we have different opinions about that.. I am not Counting cards or thinking how many off etc..

regarding formulas.. i am nit good at it at all to be honest.. can any body just say.. let say..12 out of 25 will beat odds to pass test.. i send an email with this question there was no answer yet.. would card be shuffled each time after a card pulled.. if that the case than it will not be 25 cards any more in a way of symbols..than the calculations will be different.. lest stop for now on 25 card dack that will be shuffled 1 time than by 1 card "transmitted" to me.. what are the Odds? what is the minimum to pass..? as we talked before.. there is no need to complicate anything and invent anything

I read protocol of telepathy test and about that..
the test was fair enough..i guess the guy complicated it too much for himself..in the since that if he "picks up" thoughts.. than there was no need to make it words as beside the guy in the room was other people and everyone think about something different..i mean words....
but test was fair.. and from protocol i guess something can be taken for setting up my protocol..

what we need to know for now..what is the minimum cards out of 25 "odds" will be considered self evident and how many times it has to be performed.. from than we can proceed more. to figure out the best way of performing it.. as in the end of the day i need to perform self evident result. what is self evident with Zener cards of 25.??

have a nice day guys. thank you for help.

 

[Gmonster2]

Hi pavel , you already said on you tube your best was 18/25 with zener cards.

What is your average over many tests that you have done? 12/25 is a lot more than needed can you do that?

 

[Cuddles]

Well as chtistiner sais still there is allot of ways to show me "signs" in some way of signals.. but as i said before do you think JREF will allow it..?

There's no need, a clock would be just fine. You will be in a seperate room from the sender with synchonised clocks in each room. If it takes 10 minutes for you to recieve anything then you could be allowed 15 minutes for each card. For example, when the clock read 1200 you start on the first, when it reads 1215 you start on the second and so on.

regarding the last card..as sort of i can count how many of.. Ill tell you.. i never count cards that i gues and ecven if for example all the stars are out..i still can call a star..cause ill say what i see..Ill tell you if you will be concentrating on counting and assuming how many card are off.. how many you guess etc..it will lead you to nowhere.. you should say what you see But not what you think .. any way we have different opinions about that.. I am not Counting cards or thinking how many off etc..

If the cards are selected randomly then you won't know how many of any type there are supposed to be so counting isn't a problem. You could get the same card every time or you could get one of each, or anything in between.

regarding formulas.. i am nit good at it at all to be honest.. can any body just say.. let say..12 out of 25 will beat odds to pass test.. i send an email with this question there was no answer yet.. would card be shuffled each time after a card pulled.. if that the case than it will not be 25 cards any more in a way of symbols..than the calculations will be different.. lest stop for now on 25 card dack that will be shuffled 1 time than by 1 card "transmitted" to me.. what are the Odds? what is the minimum to pass..? as we talked before.. there is no need to complicate anything and invent anything

It would be best if the cards are replaced each time and reshuffled. This means that there is no possibility of card counting, as said above, and means that there is always a 1/25 chance of guessing correctly. That means that you only need to get 3/25 to beat the 1/1000 odds required (feel free to correct me if I've screwed up).

what we need to know for now..what is the minimum cards out of 25 "odds" will be considered self evident and how many times it has to be performed.. from than we can proceed more. to figure out the best way of performing it.. as in the end of the day i need to perform self evident result. what is self evident with Zener cards of 25.??

"Self-evident" just means that there is no interpretation required. For example, astrologers tend to give vague readings, so simply giving someone a reading and seeing how closely it fit would not count for the test because it isn't objective. In your case, either you get a card right or you don't, so no interpretation is required. Once the number of cards you need to get right is established (I believe it would be 3/25), the result will be evident to anyone, either you get three or you don't.

 

[pavel_do]

Hi pavel , you already said on you tube your best was 18/25 with zener cards.

What is your average over many tests that you have done? 12/25 is a lot more than needed can you do that?

yes i can do that.. my average 12-13 sometimes not that good its 8-9-10 depands.. once it was 4 was bad day.. but if i am concentrated etc..it is average 12-13...
So 12 would be more than enough?? 12 out of 25 shuffled and given by 1 randomly.?

 

[pavel_do]

There's no need, a clock would be just fine. You will be in a seperate room from the sender with synchonised clocks in each room. If it takes 10 minutes for you to recieve anything then you could be allowed 15 minutes for each card. For example, when the clock read 1200 you start on the first, when it reads 1215 you start on the second and so on.


It would be best if the cards are replaced each time and reshuffled. This means that there is no possibility of card counting, as said above, and means that there is always a 1/25 chance of guessing correctly. That means that you only need to get 3/25 to beat the 1/1000 odds required (feel free to correct me if I've screwed up).

Sound good with reshuffle..as long as dack remain the same.. and if it is 3 out of 25 would be enough. if dack will be reshuffled everytime card pulled out and than returned back.. if that is correct calculations..i think better if ill stick to this performance.. any suggestions? ideas??
thank you!

 

[Normal Dude]

80 different symbols sounds like it could get ambiguous and confusing describing them orally. Plus, it would preclude using colors.

 

[pavel_do]

yes

80 different symbols sounds like it could get ambiguous and confusing describing them orally. Plus, it would preclude using colors.[/QUOT]

my 80 cards..are not with colors.. that why Zener easier in a way.. as it has colors to help me out.. but any way..my 80 cards are with different symbols.. things..like..gun.. flower.. dog..hors..fork spoon..etc.. Any way.. lets stop on ZENER 25 cards.> we need to fugure out if 3 out of 25..reshuffled and re tend back pulled out card..would be enough for JREF test.. and how much do they need to pass second test the finale.. And How many times it has to be performed..

 

[Normal Dude]

Well if it is Zener cards with five possible symbols/colors to choose from, you will need more than 3 out of 25 to get 1/1000 odds. According to Cristine's post above, it would have to be 13/25.
The 3 of 25 I think was in reference to a possibility of 80 symbols.

Cheers,

Chris

 

[Cuddles]

Well if it is Zener cards with five possible symbols/colors to choose from, you will need more than 3 out of 25 to get 1/1000 odds. According to Cristine's post above, it would have to be 13/25.
The 3 of 25 I think was in reference to a possibility of 80 symbols.

Cheers,

Chris

Hmm, it seems that was me being stupid. I meant to talk about the 25 cards but managed to say the wrong probability. However, I think Christine's odds are wrong since she assumes there are 5 dfiferent types of cards so the chance of getting one right is 1/5. As I understand pavel_do there are 5 symbols but also 5 different colours, so each of the 25 cards is unique and the chance of getting one correct is actually 1/25. This would mean 6/25 correct would beat the 1/1000 odds.

 

[Normal Dude]

I asked Pavel and if I understood correctly he said that the same colors are associated with the same card symbol, so it should still be 1/5. I could be wrong though.

Chris

 

[pavel_do]

I asked Pavel and if I understood correctly he said that the same colors are associated with the same card symbol, so it should still be 1/5. I could be wrong though.

Chris

Guys.. there is 25 cards, with 5 different symbols, all that symbols has a color assigned to them. Star is with Red background, Waives are Blue.. Square is brown, circle is yellow, cross with green. That how it is..