You're betting 10 heads in a row against all the other possibilities. In order to make the bet fair you have to specify the sequence of heads and tails that would indicate the coin isn't rigged.
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This is the thread that may very well change the way you look at 9/11 FOREVER!
- Thread starter 28th Kingdom
- Start date
You're betting 10 heads in a row against all the other possibilities. In order to make the bet fair you have to specify the sequence of heads and tails that would indicate the coin isn't rigged.
I think PSockserty is anticipating his eventual banning at attempting to leave whilst appearing (to himself, at least) to have claimed the moral high ground:
Will he have the self-discipline to stay away?
Will he have the self-discipline to stay away?
The greater the number of trials, the closer the outcome tends to approach that expected by probability in %age terms. But it diverges more in absolute terms. For example using roughly plausible results (number of flips, outcome, %age heads, divergence from absolute probability)
10 6-4 60% 1
100 55-45 55% 5
1000 520-480 52% 20
though of course it fluctuates both ways over a the course of huge number of trials
which is why (I think) you can't break the bank on a balanced roulette wheel, even if the odds don't favour the bank. You'll get broken by the numerical divergence long before they will (unless you're Bill Gates, I suppose).
I read something like this in my gambling days
Not to be taken as gospel.As for kids, well sperm cells are pretty much 50/50 and it's just a race. First past the post from a lot of randomly jiggling tadpoles.
TobiasTheViking
Resident Viking Autist
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- 6,925
nope, this thread hasn't changed that way i look at 9/11 at all.
Hutch
A broken man on a Halifax pier, the last of Barret
Well, I've caught up in the hopes of seeing something new from 28thkingdon, but like zaaydragon and brainache, it remains the same stuff we've all seen so many times before.
I actually hope when I see a thread like this one was titled that at least SOMETHING new and intriguing (albeit probably wrong as wrong can be) might be introduced to the board, but 28th kingdon has disappointed; not one original thought and despite his declared desire to stay on target, he has shotgunned this thread just as much if not more so than the JREF'ers.
Oh well, as the Duke of Wellington purportedly said at Waterloo of Napoleon:, "He just moved forward in the old style, in columns, and was driven off in the old style."
Somebody PM if there is an original thought in this thread sometime...
I actually hope when I see a thread like this one was titled that at least SOMETHING new and intriguing (albeit probably wrong as wrong can be) might be introduced to the board, but 28th kingdon has disappointed; not one original thought and despite his declared desire to stay on target, he has shotgunned this thread just as much if not more so than the JREF'ers.
Oh well, as the Duke of Wellington purportedly said at Waterloo of Napoleon:, "He just moved forward in the old style, in columns, and was driven off in the old style."
Somebody PM if there is an original thought in this thread sometime...
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Roger_Harris
Scholar
- Joined
- Jun 11, 2005
- Messages
- 114
Yes, the "Law of Averages" is more properly called the Law of Large Numbers. What's happening is that as the number of trials increases, the significance of any particular short series becomes smaller and smaller.
Loss Leader
I would save the receptionist., Moderator
I realize that we're very deep into this thread and I realize I should have read more than just the OP before posting but - Did somebody point out to him that expert commentary and analysis is actual evidence that could be presented in a court of law? I mean, that's why they have expert witnesses. That's why experts (and only experts) are allowed to give their opinions. That's why a DNA analyst in the OJ Simpson trial was asked one single question and talked for three days.
The standard of evidence in a civil court of law is just whether something is more likely than not. Is it more likely that two 767s loaded with fuel which witnesses saw hit buildings at 450 miles an hour did cause such massive fires that the structure was weakened and collapsed or that men in black spent months scurrying unnoticed around the World Trade Center, planted hundreds of tons of explosives, wiring and blasting caps, hit th WTC with planes, then started a top-down collapse unlike any controlled demolition in history?
If this guy wants to rely on the rules of court, I have no problem. But in court he will lose worse than in any other arena.
The towers were designed to take a hit from a slow flying 707 lost in the fog. but were hit with many times the force they were designed to absorb. Nobody in the world knows what happened at the moment of the crash. There are no benchmarks for these crashes to use as a baseline so every conspirisy expert can come out of the woodwork with silly theories and completly avoid the true facts. Nothing like this has ever happened before. Anyone could take any disaster and ask a myriad of questions that have no relivence.
These conspiracy theorists have taken fact out of context and turned it to fiction, they have carefully selected random clippings which were the extreme end of the spectrum not the mean average of the time, meaning it is a very skewed view of what we saw and heard during our present period. There questions have multiple meanings so they choose one that fits their agenda.
200mph=1x 330000# x 1 = 330,000# Towers designed for
490mph=5x 390000# x 5 =1,950,000# 1st crash
590mph=8+x 390000# x 8 =3,120,000# 2nd crash
The towers actually moved some 10' as I understand it.
When huge Forces strange things can happen that can't be predicted. have seen 2x4's go thru palm trees and sheet metal penitrate a foot into trees. Once the colapse started the building had too much inertia to fall only straight down.
First, the building is not solid; it is 95 percent air and designed to withstand lateral loads, hence, can implode onto itself and the floor supports were on the perimeter attached to the load bearing outer girders. Second, there is no lateral load, even the impact of a speeding aircraft, which is sufficient to move the center of gravity one hundred feet to the side such that it is not within the base footprint of the structure.
The floors were not designed to be self standing. The force pushed down colapsing the truss supports which were the only support for the floors to the outer walls so the weight of the concrete floors fell in the hollow section of the building with little of no restance one of the reasons the building was so light for its size, the only other floor support was from the core girders.
Angular momentum is only preserved if the fulcrum provides sufficient resistance. The crushing and grinding action of the caps destroyed the integrity of the fulcrums below, negating that resistance and slowing the angular deflection velocity. The caps did continue to tilt, but much slower due to a progressively weakened fulcrum. The caps simultaneously lost their rigidity in equal amounts to the structure beneath as a natural part of the grinding process, further reducing the angular moment, until finally the caps were obscured by the dust clouds and unable to be observed before finally being completely disintegrated. There was simple too much inertia to fall any way but straight down
The towers were 1368ft and 1362ft tall for WTC1 and 2 respectively. Debris patterns and distribution were consistent with parabolic trajectory of debris falling from such an immense height and acted upon by the force of thousands of tons of building smashing into it and pushing it out. No need for explosives here.
If the towers were completely solid, single objects, they would be expected to fall over sideways like a tree. They were not solid objects. Structures are, obviously, comprised of millions of individual components connected together. As these connections were severed by the mechanical action of the collapse, the only way they could act was as individual objects, falling under gravity. The components could not retain enough rigidity and provide enough resistance to the falling structure for it to act like a tree, nor to fall in any other way than symmetrically.
The 24' sections were the outer girders that were bolted to gether in sections thus creating a weak point at the joint. Every one knows that joints are always weak points. I have seen piks of the rubble showing the 4 holes for the bolts and piks of the actual bolts that were bent
These conspiracy theorists have taken fact out of context and turned it to fiction, they have carefully selected random clippings which were the extreme end of the spectrum not the mean average of the time, meaning it is a very skewed view of what we saw and heard during our present period. There questions have multiple meanings so they choose one that fits their agenda.
200mph=1x 330000# x 1 = 330,000# Towers designed for
490mph=5x 390000# x 5 =1,950,000# 1st crash
590mph=8+x 390000# x 8 =3,120,000# 2nd crash
The towers actually moved some 10' as I understand it.
When huge Forces strange things can happen that can't be predicted. have seen 2x4's go thru palm trees and sheet metal penitrate a foot into trees. Once the colapse started the building had too much inertia to fall only straight down.
First, the building is not solid; it is 95 percent air and designed to withstand lateral loads, hence, can implode onto itself and the floor supports were on the perimeter attached to the load bearing outer girders. Second, there is no lateral load, even the impact of a speeding aircraft, which is sufficient to move the center of gravity one hundred feet to the side such that it is not within the base footprint of the structure.
The floors were not designed to be self standing. The force pushed down colapsing the truss supports which were the only support for the floors to the outer walls so the weight of the concrete floors fell in the hollow section of the building with little of no restance one of the reasons the building was so light for its size, the only other floor support was from the core girders.
Angular momentum is only preserved if the fulcrum provides sufficient resistance. The crushing and grinding action of the caps destroyed the integrity of the fulcrums below, negating that resistance and slowing the angular deflection velocity. The caps did continue to tilt, but much slower due to a progressively weakened fulcrum. The caps simultaneously lost their rigidity in equal amounts to the structure beneath as a natural part of the grinding process, further reducing the angular moment, until finally the caps were obscured by the dust clouds and unable to be observed before finally being completely disintegrated. There was simple too much inertia to fall any way but straight down
The towers were 1368ft and 1362ft tall for WTC1 and 2 respectively. Debris patterns and distribution were consistent with parabolic trajectory of debris falling from such an immense height and acted upon by the force of thousands of tons of building smashing into it and pushing it out. No need for explosives here.
If the towers were completely solid, single objects, they would be expected to fall over sideways like a tree. They were not solid objects. Structures are, obviously, comprised of millions of individual components connected together. As these connections were severed by the mechanical action of the collapse, the only way they could act was as individual objects, falling under gravity. The components could not retain enough rigidity and provide enough resistance to the falling structure for it to act like a tree, nor to fall in any other way than symmetrically.
The 24' sections were the outer girders that were bolted to gether in sections thus creating a weak point at the joint. Every one knows that joints are always weak points. I have seen piks of the rubble showing the 4 holes for the bolts and piks of the actual bolts that were bent
I did tell him that expert opinion was admissible, but he was ignoring all of my posts. He did not reply to anything I had to say, which given the history I have with PD, makes me even more suspicious 28K was his sock.
TAM
Loss Leader
I would save the receptionist., Moderator
Was and still is, I guess, as his profile still lists him as active.
Miss Anthrope
Illuminator
- Joined
- Oct 23, 2006
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You know what's weird. This CT you think is so crazy...has become the majority view of Americans. You are the ones who are being left in the minority. That's how IRREFUTABLE the facts have become. Even the mindless sheep are waking up to this mess.
None of you can refute any claims I make with actual documented proof that I'm wrong. Yet, you are so sure about yourselves aren't you? When I'm the only one presenting anything more than a dang WRITTEN THEORY proposed by some government shills. Geez Lousie. I mean, that's all you have. That's it. No you don't have video evidence that proves the written theory. The video evidence shows squibs and CD. AS clear as day....THAT'S WHY SO MANY NEWS REPORTERS SAID THEY LOOKED LIKE CDs the DAY OF! GET IT NOW? Yes
"IRREFUTABLE?" "MAJORITY?" Are you joking? Please tell me you're a sock puppet for a bored person who likes to mock CTists.
Horatius
NWO Kitty Wrangler
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- 29,691
Well, it's a more interesting debate than anything SockBoy has come up with!
Troll
8den
Graduate Poster
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- Oct 10, 2006
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- 1,293
Back in the old country, I forget which one (Just kidding folks, it was Ireland, can't resist a simpsons joke) In the 50s and 60s, educators, by this I mean, Nuns and Priests, would regularly reprimand children for using their left hand to do writing. The left hand was seen as wrong or "sinister" to use the latin term for the word, and children were "encouraged" to use their right hand, and only reverted to form when doing something they weren't being subjected to intimidation. For example, students who were being "taught" not be lefties in school, could happily be left handed hurlers*
I imagine fundamental Islamic schools are somewhat similar, Bin Laden has been taught through childhood to surpress his ambi sinister side, and be right handed. However certain skills learnt as an adult, ie firearms training, he learnt on his natural leaning.
So either the FBI/CIA etc are basic morons who make him a left handed in some videos but forget it for some others. Or, and this is an incredible leap into plausible thinking, Osama is vaguely ambidextorious.
*This isn't a form of projectile vomiting but an Irish field sport, the fastest field ball game in the world. Think of it as a cross between hockey and soccer. The ball is the size of baseball, the sticks are flat the length of a baseball bat and everyone has one. And you can tackle someone if they have the ball, are about to get the ball, or you suspect someone in their family has once handled the ball. Protective gear is optional. It makes Ice Hockey look like a bitch fight between 8 year old girls.
Geez PD and BG MUST BE RELATED!
Bingo! They both seem to have a strange fondness for Aquaboy.
Please stop feeding the LOON !
Please guys do me a favour and stop feeding this inane idiots ego.
14 Pages devoted to this fools ONE question which WAS answered.
You people SURELY have better things to do that keep responding to this idiot.
He clearly is not reading or comprehending ANYTHING you have shown him and told him.
He is either a simpleton or is just in here playing with you (I’ll punt for a bit of a combination).
When he posts that the epitome of a critical thinker is one who rejects expert advice it shows what a complete moron he is !
THERE… Now even I have wasted some time.. but I can assure you it is ALL I will waste on this nincompoop !
Please guys do me a favour and stop feeding this inane idiots ego.
14 Pages devoted to this fools ONE question which WAS answered.
You people SURELY have better things to do that keep responding to this idiot.
He clearly is not reading or comprehending ANYTHING you have shown him and told him.
He is either a simpleton or is just in here playing with you (I’ll punt for a bit of a combination).
When he posts that the epitome of a critical thinker is one who rejects expert advice it shows what a complete moron he is !
THERE… Now even I have wasted some time.. but I can assure you it is ALL I will waste on this nincompoop !
Miss Anthrope
Illuminator
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- Oct 23, 2006
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- 3,575
B R A V O !
Trigood
Muse
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Nominated! For its humor and pizzazz.