Remember... how we know they bet on the wrong horse, was that further predictions failed to come true. That is always the bottom line.
I know where you're coming from, but this might not always be the case. Let's consider evolution for a moment: it has great explanatory power, but how strong is its predictive power? We would have to say that it needs to be strongly predictive. But what of the objections over the peppered moth study, an interesting one being this:
http://www.millerandlevine.com/km/evol/Moths/moths.html
There are questions over the methodology, but the researcher failed to predict what would happen. Does this mean the explanation (industrial melanism) is wrong? As the author of the article I cited says, no. The main problem with Kettlewell's study, to me, comes down to lack of ecological validity again. In this particular example, the original naturalistic observation was enough; the subsequent experiment was a much less reliable testbed.
First off, you must be reading different sources than I am. I have read an awful lot of Freud; I must have missed where he predicted any such thing. A source would be appreciated.
Sure:
"Object-choice, the step forward in the development of the libido which is made after the narcissitic stage, can take place according to two different types: either according to the narcissistic type, where the subject's own ego is replaced by another one that is as similar as possible, or according to the attachment type, where people who have become precious through satisfying the other vital needs are chosen by the libido as well. A strong libidinal fixation to the narcissistic type of object-choice is to be included in the predisposition to manifest homosexuality." Freud, S. (1962)
Introductory Lectures in Psychoanalysis London, Penguin, pp. 476-7.
Freud is making some rather brave hypotheses here (note, though, how this kind of hemeneutic epistemology employs methods that are untestable). Of course, we have to remember that he didn't have access to techology such as fMRI scans; if he had, I guess that his theories would have been rather different!
Additionally, Freud's deterministic account of development (e.g. psychosexual stages) is intinsically predictive as well as descriptive. Explanation=biological drives (the pleasure principle), Prediction=oral, anal and phallic stages.
To stay within the subject matter of the thread, Freud is saying here that unconscious motives are driving our choice of sexual partner; we do not consciously choose, but our choice is made for us by a dynamic unconscious. In other words, free will is illusory.
Subsequent researchers have tried using Freud to predict... it is not pretty.
Heh...each of these problems was discovered as the result of partial failures to predict--systematic failures. These systematic failures to predict led to the inclusion of additional variables,
Indeed. But
Attempts to predict (e.g. psychosexual stage theory) are not the same thing as
ability to predict.
Some of the problems with the validity of experimental psych are due to cognitive psychology's attempt to explain before they can predict...as Corey suggests, not all experimental psych is created equal.
Yes, especially if that work is carried out in the laboratory. But this does not apply to all cognitive-experimental work. Asch (1952), Lewin (1947) and the Sherif's summer camp experiments were all carried out in the field. Yes, we know that a researcher can influence the findings by clever design, but I wouldn't say that criticism applies to all cognitive-experimental work.