Answering the Lou Gentile Issue

[macgyver]

The details are not easy to work out. Ideally it would need to be double blind, so that not Jeff Wagg, Randi, the organization executing the test, nor Goldman Sachs were aware they were being tested. The test would be considered successful for Randi if the funds actually end up in the false claimant's bank account.

So basically the test is to have somebody win the challenge?

I have a better idea:

Why doesn't somebody claiming to have paranormal abilities JUST TAKE THE DAMN CHALLENGE!!!

The woos need proof? Since when?

 

[Gr8wight]

The woos need proof the JREF and its agents won't reach a false negative conclusion.

All that talk about negatives and positives, and false results completely misses the point. The claimant describes the talent, ability, or phenomenon he or she is going to demonstrate. The claimant describes exactly how he or she is going to demonstrate that talent, ability, or phenomenon. The claimant describes the level or rate of success he or she is able to achieve. The claimant then proceeds to demonstrate their claim. If they are able to achieve the level or rate of success they claimed to be able to, the test is considered successful.

The only way the JREF is involoved is in making sure the demonstration protocol, as designed by the claimant, contains sufficient controls to eliminate the possibility of a mundane explanation being responsible for a successful test. After the protocol has been agreed upon by both parties, the JREF is incapable of "reaching a false negative conclusion." Either the claimant is successful in demonstrating his or her claim to the level or rate of success he or she predicted, or they are not. It is only numbers at that point.

If the claimant genuinely believes that they have the talent or ability, but is unable to reach the level or rate of success that they predicted, they fail the test. They can claim all day that they truly do have the powers they claim, and that the result was a false negative. The JREF doesn't care, because they did not reach the false negative conclusion. The claimant did when they failed to demonstrate their claimed ability in a test they designed to the level or rate of success that they predicted.

That is why claimants are free to apply again after a year. If it truly was a false negative result, they have the opportunity to try again. The point is, it is not the JREF who reached the false negative result, it is the claimant.

 

[CFLarsen]

The woos need proof the JREF and its agents won't reach a false negative conclusion.

Stop right there.

First, it is clearly stated in the terms of the challenge that it isn't up to JREF and its agents to reach a conclusion, regardless of it being positive or negative:

All tests must be designed in such a way that the results are self-evident, and no judging process is required.
Source

Second: What, exactly, in the terms of the challenge, makes it possible for JREF to reach a false negative conclusion, if a paranormal phenomenon has been demonstrated?

 

[Mr. Scott]

An excellent idea. Just handle the first step of identifying someone with supernatural abilities, and then I'm sure there'll be lots of folks here that can help with the rest (we won't let on that your claimant is the real thing--it'll be a more fun surprise for everyone that way). I look forward to news of your success.

Yes, sarcasm always clears things up . I don't think anyone has any supernatural abilities, so I wouldn't seriously suggest finding someone who has them to test the challenge. The challenge could periodically be tested with trickery -- just to see if it's possible to get any positive, false or not.

So basically the test is to have somebody win the challenge?

I have a better idea:

Why doesn't somebody claiming to have paranormal abilities JUST TAKE THE DAMN CHALLENGE!!!

The woos need proof? Since when?

Well, yes, the way woos think, proof is irrelevant to them. But if we could prove that the Challenge is winnable then it would defuse one of their arguments against applying. Isn't testing claims part of the purpose of the challenge, or is it the paper tiger too many woos claim it to be?

Stop right there.

First, it is clearly stated in the terms of the challenge that it isn't up to JREF and its agents to reach a conclusion, regardless of it being positive or negative. (quote snipped)

Second: What, exactly, in the terms of the challenge, makes it possible for JREF to reach a false negative conclusion, if a paranormal phenomenon has been demonstrated?

For one thing, the challenge also involves the application and protocol negotiations. A far as I can see, Randi is in complete control of those steps, and that is where it seems 99% of applicants flounder. Is it the applicant's fault? Sure! But one goal is to defuse potential applicant's complaints they are being sabotaged by Randi's pre-acceptance maneuvering.

Secondly, how do we know if, when the results of the formal test are supposedly self-evident, the money would really be forthcoming?

Here's my point: How are potential applicants to be assured that the million can be won by a successful paranormal demonstration if the challenge process has never been demonstrated to its conclusion?

The Challenge is like a Ferrari that's never backed out of the garage. I'm suggesting we take it down to a test track periodically. Or try and outrun smokie. It's not enough to point to every part of the car and say, "see, it should all work, but it's never been driven. We don't even like to start the engine."

I'll ask Randi if he wouldn't mind letting a skeptic disguised as a woo take The Challenge for a test drive once in a while.

Would some woos would simply claim that Randi was in on the drill and it was all part of his trickery intended to supress belief in the supernatural? Yup. Does that mean The Challenge should never be given a test drive? Nope. Testing The Challenge can only support its validity and never harm it, in my opinion.

 

[deBergerac]

I totally and utterly disagree with this summary.

I treat what scientists and priests tell me in exactly the same way, I consider what they say, what support they call on for their arguments and conclusions and so on.

However I will admit since only one of those two professions actually offers any evidence for what they tell me is the truth I do tend to be more willing to listen to a "new" scientist rather then a "new" priest.

I totally and utterly disagree with this summary.

I tend to listen very different to a priest and a scientist although not because of their professions. I expect a scientist to have evidence for his position if he is talking about something that is testable (not necessarily testable at the moment). I do not require of the priest to have any evidence for his position if he is talking about something that is not testable.

The point is that it is what is being discussed that determines what it is necessary to consider. If the discussion is about the value of human life or what is the best music, it is outside of science and an evidence-based discussion is not possible. If the discussion is about quantum mechanics it is probably not a good idea to listen to a priest.

 

[CFLarsen]

Well, yes, the way woos think, proof is irrelevant to them. But if we could prove that the Challenge is winnable then it would defuse one of their arguments against applying. Isn't testing claims part of the purpose of the challenge, or is it the paper tiger too many woos claim it to be?

Of course it's winnable. Just. Do. It.

For one thing, the challenge also involves the application and protocol negotiations. A far as I can see, Randi is in complete control of those steps, and that is where it seems 99% of applicants flounder. Is it the applicant's fault? Sure! But one goal is to defuse potential applicant's complaints they are being sabotaged by Randi's pre-acceptance maneuvering.

There is no "maneuvering" other that making sure that no trickery is involved, by any party. That's one hell of a defuse.

Randi is not in complete control of those steps: The protocols are negotiated together with the applicant. It goes pretty much like this:

Applicant: "For me to do it, I need to do A".

JREF: "Yeah, but that opens up for trickery in this manner (blah blah). How about B?"

Appplicant: "No, that makes my abilities go away. How about C?"

JREF: "Yeah, but that opens up for trickery in this manner (blah blah). How about D?"

And so on. If any "maneuvering" takes place, it is by the applicants.

Secondly, how do we know if, when the results of the formal test are supposedly self-evident, the money would really be forthcoming?

Because the results would be published, for all to see. It would be a devastating blow to JREF, should they still refuse to pay up.

Here's my point: How are potential applicants to be assured that the million can be won by a successful paranormal demonstration if the challenge process has never been demonstrated to its conclusion?

Just. Do. It.

The Challenge is like a Ferrari that's never backed out of the garage. I'm suggesting we take it down to a test track periodically. Or try and outrun smokie. It's not enough to point to every part of the car and say, "see, it should all work, but it's never been driven. We don't even like to start the engine."

I'll ask Randi if he wouldn't mind letting a skeptic disguised as a woo take The Challenge for a test drive once in a while.

Would some woos would simply claim that Randi was in on the drill and it was all part of his trickery intended to supress belief in the supernatural? Yup. Does that mean The Challenge should never be given a test drive? Nope. Testing The Challenge can only support its validity and never harm it, in my opinion.

If the woos won't be persuaded by such a test drive, why do it at all? Like I said, it's winnable alright: Just. Do. It.

 

[MRC_Hans]

*snip*

I'm mellowing out with age....

Then you should apply for the challenge, since you are evidently currently getting younger.

Hans

 

[Mr. Scott]

Challenge Winnable?

Of course it's winnable.

Evidence?

 

[Gr8wight]

The Challenge is like a Ferrari that's never backed out of the garage. I'm suggesting we take it down to a test track periodically. Or try and outrun smokie. It's not enough to point to every part of the car and say, "see, it should all work, but it's never been driven. We don't even like to start the engine."

Bad analogy. By my count, three applicants suuccessfully negotiated a protocol and took the preliminary test last year. Sounds like a pretty good test drive to me.

I'll ask Randi if he wouldn't mind letting a skeptic disguised as a woo take The Challenge for a test drive once in a while.

::cough::Lost Angeles::Cough::

 

[CFLarsen]

Then you should apply for the challenge, since you are evidently currently getting younger.

Hans

Har-de-har.....come over here and let me stomp on your pinkie toe.

Evidence?

Just. Do. It.

 

[Aepervius]

I think there is a misunderstanding

Evidence?

I do not speak very well english so follow carefully here :
* applicant propose a protocol
* if JREF thinks it is ok it is accepted. If not JREF ask modification (mostly to avoid fraud or to make sure that any 3rd party can accept the results impartially as negative or positive without interpretation ).
* if applicant accept that final negociated protocol then the test can proceed.
* applicant do the test. Since due to protocol any 3rd party can judge the result, then it is immediatly nown whether it is positive or negative
* if positive randy has to cough up the dough
* if it is negative the applicant can try again 1 year later

1) where do you see anything or any point making the challenge unwinnable ?
2) how the hell are we to provide evidence of the challenge is winnable, baring winning it ourselves ?
3) woo will try every excuse in the book, even if you debunk those excuse, they still won't take the challenge. Maybe you know this expression : there is no worst deaf than one which do not want to hear. Thus trying to show them anything about the challenge is a WASTE OF TIME.

 

[Reno]

Applicant: I can telekinesethetize a bottle from one end of a table to another. I need compleete darkness for my powers to come forth manifestingly.

JREF: Fair enough, we'll use infra-red cameras to monitor the demonstration.

Applicant: I knew it!!!!!! Randy are maiking it imporsible to win!!!!!!!!! Theres no money in his bank and hes not giving it out anyway. Sylvia was right about him.

 

[macgyver]

Well, yes, the way woos think, proof is irrelevant to them. But if we could prove that the Challenge is winnable then it would defuse one of their arguments against applying. Isn't testing claims part of the purpose of the challenge, or is it the paper tiger too many woos claim it to be?

The problem is you've only proven that the challenge can result in false positives unless, of course, the claimant has actual paranormal ability. In that case, however, you haven't done anything but finally get a claimant through the challenge successfully - something Randi's been trying to do for decades....

I'll ask Randi if he wouldn't mind letting a skeptic disguised as a woo take The Challenge for a test drive once in a while.

You can ask him, but I'd be surprised if he saw any point to it. I certainly don't see the point.

I understand your argument, and the idea that the JREF needs to be a "kinder gentler JREF" so as not to scare away the skittish woos may have some minor merit. However, to suggest that the woos require evidence and proof so as not to be scammed by the JREF is the very definition of irony.

The proof is there, the legally binding documents are there, the woos are too lazy to do any legwork and see an easy "out" to explain why they don't take the challenge.

The fact that nobody has claimed it EVER is largely the point....

 

[Mr. Scott]

1) where do you see anything or any point making the challenge unwinnable ?

From what I've read of woo's complaints, since they are sure supernatural abilities exist, they assume Randi made the challenge unwinnable to save face.

2) how the hell are we to provide evidence of the challenge is winnable, baring winning it ourselves ?

Yes, that's the only way I can see to do it, but if testing the challenge is revealed to be an "inside job" then unfortunately we are back to square one.

3) woo will try every excuse in the book, even if you debunk those excuse, they still won't take the challenge. Maybe you know this expression : there is no worst deaf than one which do not want to hear. Thus trying to show them anything about the challenge is a WASTE OF TIME.

Randi agrees. Here's his reaction to the idea of test-driving the challenge:

A waste of time and facilities...

 

[Mr. Scott]

And now back to Lou...

Mr. Gentile's agents say he'll be back on the air June 19. That's four days from now. Until then we can't fairly say he's AWOL.

Their web site seems to be a takeoff of the JREF web site. They even have a Million Dollar Challenge Clock that echoes the JREF's Sylvia Browne clock. In a recent online poll there, respondents voted that Randi was "sketchy" by a small margin.

I can't wait to see if any of these obnoxious guys will really take the challenge.

 

[KevinM]

My Final Post on the Issue

I've come back to make some final factual comments and to leave it at that. I will not be bothered to read this message board again as it has become very clear to me that many of you are little different then the average religious zealot. You THINK your smarter, better informed and wise then any one who disagrees with you and you consider Randi's word innviolate. For thsoe who might be bothered to listen let me make some very real problems clear:
1) JREF has grossly mismanaged communication. Randi has sent exactly 1 communication to Mr Gentile(for the record I am the Co host of the Lou Gentile Show, the longest standing investigator for DVDR, and yes very close to Mr Gentile having co authored both the original press release that started the matter and the original challenge application this email is a direct result of my discussion with Mr Gentile via phone from his hospital room). No effort was also ever made to communicate Randi's illness(he claimed that every one in the world knew really which media outlets mentioned it since the vast majority of the general public have little to no idea who Randi is thats a very innaccurate statement), that Krammer was no longer handling applications, or that Randi had a new protocol to offer(which was first mentioned on a radio show and sent to the shows host but not Mr Gentile). In all fairness Randi had a perfectly legitimate reason for not communicating much of this as he had far more important things to worry about(of course one must love his need to kick Mr Gentile when he was down by complaining about a delay in response which was only posted after his accident).

2)Theres a major issue of integrity over the suggested protocol. Randi has not been forth comming so far and frankly he has presented a protocol that is flawed. With out some way to guarantee that those administering the test will not directly interfere to preserve there own tightly held beliefs there has to be a major change in protocol. Randi would not accept no more then promises of good intentions and honesty from us so why should we be expected to do the same?

3) I will not continue to stroke Randi's ego. The more I hear about this the more I sympathisize with others who've gotten involved like Sylvia Browne. Randi makes a big deal about not catering to test subjects egos(NOT that he should) but he obviously expects the test subjects to kiss up to him. JREF can take months to respond to a claim, ignore emails, and use unreliable means of communication but heaven forbid a challenger not sit up and beg when he wants a response. I'm not as old as Randi or Mr Gentile but I am certainly to older for these kinds of childrens games(and frankly the grade school name calling was completely uncalled for) and I would have thuoght Randi was also beyond this kind of nonsense. Just goes to show skeptics can act a lot like the religious nuts they loathe.

4) Finally in regards to the recorder. A lot of entertaining claims have been made about why it was discontinued. Prove it. Show me an announcement from Panasonic(I can be reached via email at kmeares@rocketmail.com) to that effect. Panasonics official position is that they discontinued the recorder to make way for new technology. Do the anomolous voices test out as human voices using recognition software? No they dont. Of course that only suprises the careless. A simple test of running a known speakers recording through the same soft ware from the same recorder will also not detect as human speech.

Regardless I'm done. I have no doubt mud slinging and egotistical rants about the great omnipotence of all skeptics and stupidity of believers will go on in my absense(why not it went on when I was here). Hopefully those who feel the need to act in that matter will try acting like the intelectuals they claim to be.

 

[Chaos]

From what I've read of woo's complaints, since they are sure supernatural abilities exist, they assume Randi made the challenge unwinnable to save face.*snip*

Let them prove their ****ing abilities, for Ed´s sake. If they can do that, and Randi doesn´t pay, THEN I´m going to listen to their complaints. THEN. Not before.

 

[KevinM]

Oop

its probably obvious but i should point out any further comunication regarding the challenge will have to wait till Lou's recovered(and it will be a some time yet). Incidentaly to Chaos your also assuming that they haven't proven it there certainly are scientists that would say some of what Randi's denouncing has been proven.

 

[CFLarsen]

I've come back to make some final factual comments and to leave it at that. I will not be bothered to read this message board again as it has become very clear to me that many of you are little different then the average religious zealot. You THINK your smarter, better informed and wise then any one who disagrees with you and you consider Randi's word innviolate.

Yeah, yeah, the same old whining rant...

For thsoe who might be bothered to listen let me make some very real problems clear:
1) JREF has grossly mismanaged communication. Randi has sent exactly 1 communication to Mr Gentile(for the record I am the Co host of the Lou Gentile Show

Really? According to your own homepage, you are a cashier at a local grocery store in a small town in PA.

the longest standing investigator for DVDR

I assume you are referring to this:

an investigator and message board moderator for the Deleware Valley Demonology Research a link to which you can find on my links page. As to what that all means the dvdr is a christian based spirit investigation group. We differ from a parapsychological organization in that we beleive in the existence of angels and demons as well as human spirits and because when necissary we will involve the services of a priest of the families appropriate religion for blessings and the like.
Source

Gee, you believe in angels, demons and human spirits....

, and yes very close to Mr Gentile having co authored both the original press release that started the matter and the original challenge application this email is a direct result of my discussion with Mr Gentile via phone from his hospital room). No effort was also ever made to communicate Randi's illness(he claimed that every one in the world knew really which media outlets mentioned it since the vast majority of the general public have little to no idea who Randi is thats a very innaccurate statement),

Now you are flat-out lying. As soon as it was possible, there was a notification on Randi's website. In these modern times, that's where you go first, if you want the best information.

You know...just like I did, when I found your own webpage.

that Krammer was no longer handling applications

"Kramer". It is completely irrelevant who handles the applications within JREF.

, or that Randi had a new protocol to offer(which was first mentioned on a radio show and sent to the shows host but not Mr Gentile). In all fairness Randi had a perfectly legitimate reason for not communicating much of this as he had far more important things to worry about (of course one must love his need to kick Mr Gentile when he was down by complaining about a delay in response which was only posted after his accident).

If you think Randi had a perfectly legitimate reason, why bring this up at all?

2)Theres a major issue of integrity over the suggested protocol. Randi has not been forth comming so far and frankly he has presented a protocol that is flawed. With out some way to guarantee that those administering the test will not directly interfere to preserve there own tightly held beliefs there has to be a major change in protocol. Randi would not accept no more then promises of good intentions and honesty from us so why should we be expected to do the same?

Please point out precisely how people can "directly interfere" with the test.

3) I will not continue to stroke Randi's ego. The more I hear about this the more I sympathisize with others who've gotten involved like Sylvia Browne. Randi makes a big deal about not catering to test subjects egos(NOT that he should) but he obviously expects the test subjects to kiss up to him. JREF can take months to respond to a claim, ignore emails, and use unreliable means of communication but heaven forbid a challenger not sit up and beg when he wants a response. I'm not as old as Randi or Mr Gentile but I am certainly to older for these kinds of childrens games(and frankly the grade school name calling was completely uncalled for) and I would have thuoght Randi was also beyond this kind of nonsense. Just goes to show skeptics can act a lot like the religious nuts they loathe.

Yeah, yeah, yeah...

4) Finally in regards to the recorder. A lot of entertaining claims have been made about why it was discontinued. Prove it. Show me an announcement from Panasonic(I can be reached via email at kmeares@rocketmail.com) to that effect. Panasonics official position is that they discontinued the recorder to make way for new technology.

What, exactly, are these claims, Kevin?

Do the anomolous voices test out as human voices using recognition software? No they dont. Of course that only suprises the careless. A simple test of running a known speakers recording through the same soft ware from the same recorder will also not detect as human speech.

Kevin, isn't there a alarm bell going off in your head right now? You need a specific piece of technology to achieve this phenomenon? Not just a kind of hardware, but one particular model from one particular vendor?

Can you tell me where in science we have to resort to one particular model of thermometer from one particular vendor to measure temperature?

Don't you think it is more likely that it is due to some sort of production flaw in the product itself?

Regardless I'm done. I have no doubt mud slinging and egotistical rants about the great omnipotence of all skeptics and stupidity of believers will go on in my absense(why not it went on when I was here). Hopefully those who feel the need to act in that matter will try acting like the intelectuals they claim to be.

There's a Danish saying: "Listen to a flea bark".

its probably obvious but i should point out any further comunication regarding the challenge will have to wait till Lou's recovered(and it will be a some time yet). Incidentaly to Chaos your also assuming that they haven't proven it there certainly are scientists that would say some of what Randi's denouncing has been proven.

In which case you should extend the same courtesy to Randi. Yet, you seem unwilling to do so...

 

[Chaos]

its probably obvious but i should point out any further comunication regarding the challenge will have to wait till Lou's recovered(and it will be a some time yet). Incidentaly to Chaos your also assuming that they haven't proven it there certainly are scientists that would say some of what Randi's denouncing has been proven.

Sure there are. There are also "scientists" who "would say" that creationism is the cutting edge of modern science, or that earth is a flat disc, or that sugar pills and tap water can heal people. You´ll notice that none of these clowns provide evidence for their crap, either.